1954 Season

The 1954 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

This is my fourth article in my occasional series looking at various Major-League seasons through the prism of Player won-lost records. Previous seasons for which I've written articles include 1951, 1977, and 2012.

The 1954 season was especially significant for the city of my birth, Baltimore, which got major-league baseball back in 1954 after a 52-year absence, as well as the city of my father's birth, Cleveland, which won a then-AL record 111 games to win the AL pennant, the only pennant not won by the Yankees over the ten seasons from 1949 through 1958.

The Best of 1954

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.

		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Bobby Avila	24.9	15.2	5.1	6.7	1	Bobby Avila	24.9	15.2	5.1	6.7
2	Larry Doby	26.9	15.2	4.9	6.6	2	Larry Doby	26.9	15.2	4.9	6.6
3	Minnie Minoso	27.6	17.9	4.1	6.0	3	Minnie Minoso	27.6	17.9	4.1	6.0
4	Johnny Antonelli	19.0	12.5	4.0	5.4	4	Johnny Antonelli	19.0	12.5	4.0	5.4
5	E. Mike Garcia	18.5	11.9	3.9	5.4	5	E. Mike Garcia	18.5	11.9	3.9	5.4
6	Mickey Mantle	24.0	15.2	3.6	5.2	6	Mickey Mantle	24.0	15.2	3.6	5.2
7	Early Wynn	20.0	14.4	3.5	5.2	7	Early Wynn	20.0	14.4	3.5	5.2
8	Yogi Berra	19.1	12.3	3.4	4.7	8	Chico Carrasquel	24.1	18.4	3.4	5.1
9	Pee Wee Reese	21.7	15.8	3.4	4.9	9	Pee Wee Reese	21.7	15.8	3.4	4.9
10	Chico Carrasquel	24.1	18.4	3.4	5.1	10	Duke Snider	23.5	15.2	3.3	4.9

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.

		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Ted Williams	19.6	12.6	3.0	4.3	1	Duke Snider	23.0	15.3	3.0	4.5
2	Duke Snider	23.0	15.3	3.0	4.5	2	Willie Mays	23.5	16.1	2.8	4.4
3	Willie Mays	23.5	16.1	2.8	4.4	3	Stan Musial	25.5	19.6	2.5	4.4
4	Eddie Mathews	20.5	13.6	2.8	4.2	4	Robin Roberts	21.5	18.1	2.5	4.4
5	Mickey Mantle	22.7	15.8	2.7	4.3	5	Ted Williams	19.6	12.6	3.0	4.3
6	Stan Musial	25.5	19.6	2.5	4.4	6	Mickey Mantle	22.7	15.8	2.7	4.3
7	Robin Roberts	21.5	18.1	2.5	4.4	7	Eddie Mathews	20.5	13.6	2.8	4.2
8	Bobby Avila	20.5	16.0	2.4	4.0	8	Minnie Minoso	24.6	18.7	2.2	4.0
9	Ted Kluszewski	19.7	13.7	2.4	3.8	9	Bobby Avila	20.5	16.0	2.4	4.0
10	Pee Wee Reese	20.3	16.5	2.3	3.8	10	Harvey Haddix	18.4	15.1	2.3	3.9

The 1954 MVP awards went to Willie Mays and Yogi Berra. Based on the above tables, I probably would have voted for Larry Doby and Duke Snider if I had a vote.

The Cy Young award was not introduced until 1956. For 1954, however, the top pitchers, as measured by Player won-lost records, were probably Mike Garcia of the Cleveland Indians in the American League and Johnny Antonelli of the New York Giants in the National League, although Warren Spahn and Robin Roberts also have strong cases, especially if you prefer eWins to pWins.

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

Better in Context: Larry Doby and Bobby Avila

The top two players in pWOPA and two of the top three in pWORL in 1954 were teammates on the 111-win, AL-pennant winning Cleveland Indians. Doby and Avila combined to earn 6.2 more pWORL than eWORL. The fact that Doby and Avila earned significantly more pWORL than eWORL was not really a coincidence. Overall, the 1954 Indians earned 21.5 more pWORL than eWORL. Some of this was because of good clutch hitting. Larry Doby, for example, batted .304/.394/.609 in high-leverage situations vs. .256/.348/.437 in low-leverage situations.

Mostly, though, the 1954 Indians are an example of how the relationship of player wins to team wins is not a simple linear one. A team whose players are a little above average will win most of their games. I explore the relationship of team wins to Player pWins in more detail in a separate article.

Worse in Context: Ted Williams

Controlling for context and teammate-ability, Ted Williams was the best hitter, best leftfielder, and almost certainly the best player in the 1954 American League. In context, however, Williams' performance translated into about one fewer Red Sox victory than would have been expected. One victory is not a terribly big deal, and it's really not so much because of anything that Williams did - his OPS in high-leverage situations was 1.088 vs. 1.057 in low-leverage (and 1.321 in medium-leverage) - as that his teammates weren't very good, mostly on the defensive side of the ball: the Red Sox were one of only two AL teams with a team ERA over 4.00 and they were 7th out of 8 teams in defensive efficiency (although, to be fair to the rest of the Red Sox fielders, Williams appears to have been a below-average fielder as well).

In the same way that a group of good players will win more games than you might expect by simply adding up their WORL, a group of bad players will win fewer games than you would expect by adding up their WORL, and bad players can pull down their (few) good teammates as well.

Looking, for example, at team WARs for the 1954 American League at Baseball-Reference.com, the Red Sox amassed 29.9 WAR while the Indians had 54.0, a difference of 24.1 WAR (I actually calculate that the Indians compiled only 12.1 more eWORL than the Red Sox). Yet the Red Sox won 69 games while the Indians won 111, a difference of 42 wins!

The 1954 Postseason

The New York Giants swept the Cleveland Indians 4-0 in the 1954 World Series.

Not surprisingly, the best player performances in the World Series this season, as measured by Player won-lost records, were compiled by Giants' players.

	1954 Postseason: Total
		pWins	pLosses	pWORL
Willie Mays	NY1	1.1	0.3	0.4
Johnny Antonelli	NY1	1.1	0.5	0.4
Dusty Rhodes	NY1	0.7	0.1	0.4
Hank Thompson	NY1	0.6	0.2	0.2
Marv Grissom	NY1	0.4	0.1	0.2
Alvin Dark	NY1	0.6	0.3	0.2

Best of 1954 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) eWins over Positional Average in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 1954 in eWOPA by factor were as follows.

	Batting
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Ted Williams	14.2	7.3	3.2

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense

	Baserunning
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Mickey Mantle	1.2	0.6	0.3
Spook Jacobs	1.2	0.6	0.3
Jackie Jensen	1.4	0.9	0.2
Bill Bruton	1.5	1.0	0.2
Chico Carrasquel	1.7	1.2	0.2
Bobby Avila	1.7	1.2	0.2
Alex Grammas	1.0	0.6	0.2
Al E. Smith	1.2	0.8	0.2

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense

	Pitching
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
E. Mike Garcia	12.9	9.2	3.7
Robin Roberts	18.0	14.4	3.6
Harvey Haddix	15.0	12.0	2.9
Early Wynn	14.4	11.5	2.8
Johnny Antonelli	13.7	10.9	2.8

Next, we look at the major-league leaders in net fielding wins in 1954 by fielding position.

	Fielding, P
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Steve Ridzik	0.4	0.0	0.3
Bob Porterfield	0.5	0.2	0.3
Lou Kretlow	0.4	0.1	0.3
Bob Keegan	0.4	0.2	0.3

	Fielding, C
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Yogi Berra	1.6	1.1	0.5

	Fielding, 1B
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Earl Torgeson	2.2	1.8	0.3
Gil Hodges	2.8	2.4	0.3

	Fielding, 2B
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Granny Hamner	5.7	4.8	0.9

	Fielding, 3B
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Willie Jones	4.3	3.6	0.7

	Fielding, SS
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Chico Carrasquel	7.3	6.1	1.2

	Fielding, LF
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Sandy Amoros	3.1	2.2	0.9

	Fielding, CF
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Willie Mays	6.2	5.0	1.2

	Fielding, RF
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Carl Furillo	7.3	5.7	1.6

Best by Position

Next, we look at 1954 Major-League leaders in eWOPA by position. The figures shown here only include Player decisions earned while playing this particular position, and include no contextual adjustments (expected or actual).

	Catcher
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Yogi Berra	16.6	12.2	2.3

	First Base
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Ted Kluszewski	19.7	14.0	2.3

	Second Base
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Bobby Avila	20.0	15.7	2.4

	Third Base
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Eddie Mathews	19.3	12.6	2.8

	Shortstop
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Pee Wee Reese	20.2	16.7	2.2

	Left Field
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Ted Williams	19.1	12.9	2.6

	Center Field
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Duke Snider	22.8	15.6	2.7

	Right Field
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Stan Musial	23.4	18.8	2.0

That's one heck of an outfield, isn't it?

	Starting Pitcher
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
E. Mike Garcia	12.5	8.8	2.0
Robin Roberts	17.5	14.3	1.8

	Relief Pitcher
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Hoyt Wilhelm	6.0	4.4	0.6

For relief pitchers, context-neutral records may not be the best measure of how good they are, as context can matter a great deal, depending on how a pitcher is used. Here are the top relief pitchers of 1954 in context, in terms of pWins and pWOPA.

Player	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL
	Top Relief Pitchers of 1954, based on pWORL
Jim R. Hughes	7.7	5.0	0.606	1.3	2.1
Marv Grissom	9.0	7.4	0.550	0.8	1.8
Dave Jolly	7.5	5.8	0.564	0.9	1.7
Hoyt Wilhelm	6.2	4.1	0.599	0.9	1.6
Johnny Sain	6.5	5.1	0.561	0.7	1.4

One thing that's kind of striking there: Hoyt Wilhelm actually didn't pitch in an above-average context in 1954. In fact, his overall context multiplier this season was 0.992, or about 0.8% below average.

Finally, here are the best at three oft-forgotten positions that can nevertheless matter: pitcher offense, pinch hitting, and pinch running.

	Pitcher Offense
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Don Larsen	1.7	1.5	0.5

Of course, two years later, Don Larsen became famous for something a bit more impressive than being the best-hitting pitcher in the major leagues in 1954.

	Pinch Hitter
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Joe Frazier	1.7	1.2	0.3
Eddie Robinson	1.5	1.1	0.3

	Pinch Runner
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Reno Bertoia	0.2	0.1	0.1
Hal Jeffcoat	0.1	0.0	0.1

Notable Debuts

Finally, two Hall-of-Famers made their major-league debut in 1954: Hank Aaron and Harmon Killebrew.

Here's how their careers compare in Player won-lost records.

Season	Games	pWins	pLosses	Win Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	Win Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL
	Hank Aaron						Harmon Killebrew
1954	122	16.9	14.7	0.535	0.6	1.9	6	0.3	0.4	0.443	-0.0	-0.0
1955	153	21.6	18.6	0.537	1.0	2.6	38	1.7	2.2	0.428	-0.3	-0.1
1956	153	25.2	18.4	0.578	2.6	4.4	44	1.9	3.8	0.336	-0.9	-0.7
1957	151	25.2	16.6	0.602	3.6	5.3	9	1.0	1.2	0.451	-0.1	-0.0
1958	153	24.9	17.3	0.590	2.9	4.6	13	0.5	1.3	0.277	-0.4	-0.3
1959	154	25.1	17.8	0.585	2.6	4.3	153	22.1	17.9	0.552	1.5	3.1
1960	153	24.0	17.9	0.573	2.4	4.1	124	14.1	11.1	0.559	1.0	2.0
1961	155	25.4	18.6	0.577	2.4	4.4	150	17.5	15.1	0.536	0.3	1.8
1962	156	26.9	19.7	0.577	2.7	4.5	155	23.8	17.9	0.571	2.0	3.5
1963	161	25.8	19.3	0.573	2.0	3.7	142	18.8	15.6	0.547	0.8	2.1
1964	145	21.1	18.0	0.540	0.7	2.3	158	22.7	19.9	0.534	0.4	2.1
1965	150	21.9	17.9	0.550	1.2	2.7	113	15.8	9.6	0.621	2.5	3.5
1966	158	25.3	18.7	0.575	2.3	4.0	162	21.9	15.9	0.579	2.3	3.8
1967	155	26.1	19.4	0.574	2.3	4.3	163	22.9	14.2	0.617	3.2	4.8
1968	160	27.7	20.3	0.577	2.7	4.7	100	10.1	8.0	0.561	0.6	1.4
1969	147	23.9	15.8	0.603	3.0	4.7	162	24.8	15.2	0.620	4.1	5.8
1970	150	22.9	16.3	0.585	2.7	4.3	157	22.5	16.2	0.581	2.4	4.1
1971	139	20.6	13.4	0.605	2.7	4.1	147	17.5	15.6	0.528	0.2	1.5
1972	129	16.2	12.7	0.560	0.7	1.9	139	16.4	12.5	0.568	0.8	2.0
1973	120	15.1	13.3	0.532	0.3	1.5	69	6.1	6.6	0.482	-0.4	0.1
1974	112	14.3	10.9	0.567	1.2	2.2	122	9.4	8.9	0.513	0.2	1.1
1975	137	9.6	10.5	0.479	-0.6	0.7	106	8.3	7.2	0.535	0.4	1.4
1976	85	6.5	6.6	0.495	-0.1	0.7
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS (Regular Season)	3,298	492.4	372.8	0.569	42.2	77.9	2,432	300.0	236.3	0.559	20.6	42.9
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
Postseason	17	2.7	2.5	0.521	0.0	0.2	13	1.3	1.7	0.427	-0.3	-0.2
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	3,315	495.1	375.3	0.569	42.2	78.1	2,445	301.3	238.0	0.559	20.3	42.8

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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