1986 Season

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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The 1986 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

Next in my continuing series of looking at individual seasons through the prism of Player won-lost records is the 1986 season.

The Best of 1986

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.

		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Mike Scott	19.0	12.6	3.8	5.1	1	Mike Scott	19.0	12.6	3.8	5.1
2	Roger Clemens	17.3	9.9	3.7	5.0	2	Roger Clemens	17.3	9.9	3.7	5.0
3	Wade Boggs	21.9	15.0	3.2	4.6	3	Wade Boggs	21.9	15.0	3.2	4.6
4	Teddy Higuera	17.8	11.4	3.2	4.6	4	Teddy Higuera	17.8	11.4	3.2	4.6
5	Bob Ojeda	14.8	10.0	2.8	3.9	5	Jesse Barfield	24.7	18.9	2.5	4.1
6	Gary Carter	17.8	13.3	2.5	3.6	6	Bob Ojeda	14.8	10.0	2.8	3.9
7	Dwight Gooden	16.3	12.4	2.5	3.7	7	Jim Rice	24.6	19.3	2.2	3.8
8	Jesse Barfield	24.7	18.9	2.5	4.1	8	Fernando Valenzuela	18.3	15.0	2.4	3.8
9	Darryl Strawberry	20.4	14.3	2.4	3.7	9	Darryl Strawberry	20.4	14.3	2.4	3.7
10	Ron Darling	15.7	11.9	2.4	3.6	10	Dwight Gooden	16.3	12.4	2.5	3.7

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.

		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Mike Scott	18.8	12.8	3.6	4.9	1	Mike Scott	18.8	12.8	3.6	4.9
2	Roger Clemens	16.4	10.8	2.8	4.1	2	Roger Clemens	16.4	10.8	2.8	4.1
3	Jesse Barfield	24.7	18.9	2.5	4.1	3	Jesse Barfield	24.7	18.9	2.5	4.1
4	Eric Davis	19.3	13.4	2.5	3.7	4	Mike Schmidt	21.2	15.3	2.4	3.8
5	Mike Schmidt	21.2	15.3	2.4	3.8	5	Eric Davis	19.3	13.4	2.5	3.7
6	Alan Trammell	20.1	17.2	2.3	3.6	6	Cal Ripken	22.2	19.9	2.1	3.7
7	Fernando Valenzuela	18.2	15.1	2.2	3.6	7	Alan Trammell	20.1	17.2	2.3	3.6
8	Mike Witt	16.0	11.6	2.2	3.5	8	Fernando Valenzuela	18.2	15.1	2.2	3.6
9	Cal Ripken	22.2	19.9	2.1	3.7	9	Mike Witt	16.0	11.6	2.2	3.5
10	Wade Boggs	20.7	16.3	2.0	3.3	10	Wade Boggs	20.7	16.3	2.0	3.3

Top Pitchers of 1986

Looking at the above lists, 1986 looks to have been something of a "Year of the Pitcher". Measured by pWins over positional average, 7 of the top 10 players in major-league baseball in 1986 were pitchers, including 3 starting pitchers from the 108-regular-season-win (and eventual World Series champion) New York Mets (who have players 6-10 on that list).

The number of quality pitching performances in 1986 was recognized at the time as well. Starting pitcher Roger Clemens won the American League MVP award; relief pitcher Todd Worrell won the NL Rookie-of-the-Year award; and, Mike Scott was named MVP of the NLCS.

Measured by pWins over either positional average or replacement level, four of the top five players in major-league baseball were pitchers: two in each league.

The next table compares the 1986 seasons of these four pitchers, both in and out of context.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
Mike Scott	38	19.0	12.6	0.602	3.8	5.1	18.8	12.8	0.594	3.6	4.9
Teddy Higuera	34	17.8	11.4	0.609	3.2	4.6	16.5	12.7	0.564	1.9	3.3
Fernando Valenzuela	39	18.3	15.0	0.551	2.4	3.8	18.2	15.1	0.546	2.2	3.6
Roger Clemens	33	17.3	9.9	0.637	3.7	5.0	16.4	10.8	0.604	2.8	4.1

The next tables compares the career records of these four pitchers.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
Mike Scott	348	130.6	130.3	0.501	4.3	15.7	129.6	131.2	0.497	3.3	14.8
Teddy Higuera	213	86.2	68.9	0.556	8.7	16.4	84.4	70.8	0.544	6.8	14.5
Fernando Valenzuela	474	188.4	182.0	0.509	9.3	25.8	185.3	185.1	0.500	6.2	22.7
--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------
Sum of Scott, Higuera, and Valenzuela		405.2	381.2	0.515	22.2	58.0	399.2	387.2	0.508	16.3	52.0
--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------	--------
Roger Clemens	709	318.1	228.1	0.582	46.3	74.6	315.4	230.7	0.578	43.6	71.9

One of these things is not like the others - or, perhaps more accurately, one of these things is more than the sum of the others.

Top Position Player of 1986: Wade Boggs

The top position player in major-league baseball in 1986, as measured by pWins over either positional average or replacement level, was Boston Red Sox third baseman Wade Boggs.

Joe Posnanski recently wrote a very nice blog post on Wade Boggs as part of his series on his top 100 players of all-time (Boggs is number 52). In it, Posnanski makes the observation that "Boggs probably has a lock on best player to never receive one MVP first-place vote." I would amend that by (a) limiting it to players who played under modern MVP voting rules, and (b) excluding pitchers (5-time Cy Young winner Randy Johnson never received a first-place MVP vote, for example). But even with those caveats, it's an interesting and highly defensible position.

On the one hand, by Player won-lost records, I'm not sure that there's a season where I'm absolutely sure that I would have given Wade Boggs a first-place vote for AL MVP. So, it's perhaps a little unfair to be critical that nobody else did. On the other hand, it's easy enough to make the case for Boggs in at least a couple of seasons. Here in 1986, if you take the "pitchers have their own awards and therefore shouldn't win the MVP award" position, Boggs is the best choice as measured by pWins over either positional average or replacement level. Shifting to eWins, Boggs has a very strong case in 1988 and is at least in the conversation in 1985 and 1987.

Wade Boggs's career record, as measured by Player won-lost records, is shown in the next table.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
Wade Boggs Basic Player Won-Lost Records
												Value Decomposition
1982	BOS	24	104	10.4	9.0	0.537	0.6	1.3	10.3	9.1	0.530	0.4	1.2
1983	BOS	25	153	22.2	18.3	0.547	1.7	3.2	22.5	18.1	0.555	2.0	3.5
1984	BOS	26	157	17.9	17.6	0.506	0.3	1.6	18.7	16.8	0.528	1.1	2.4
1985	BOS	27	161	22.8	18.6	0.551	2.1	3.7	23.4	18.0	0.565	2.7	4.2
1986	BOS	28	149	21.9	15.0	0.594	3.2	4.6	20.7	16.3	0.559	2.0	3.3
1987	BOS	29	147	19.5	14.8	0.569	2.3	3.6	20.0	14.3	0.584	2.8	4.1
1988	BOS	30	155	19.9	15.4	0.563	2.3	3.6	20.1	15.2	0.570	2.5	3.8
1989	BOS	31	156	18.0	15.8	0.532	1.1	2.3	18.8	15.0	0.555	1.9	3.1
1990	BOS	32	155	18.1	17.7	0.506	0.3	1.6	18.1	17.8	0.504	0.3	1.6
1991	BOS	33	144	19.5	15.3	0.560	2.1	3.5	19.0	15.8	0.546	1.6	3.0
1992	BOS	34	143	16.3	16.7	0.493	-0.3	1.0	16.5	16.4	0.501	-0.1	1.2
1993	NYA	35	143	16.3	15.5	0.513	0.4	1.7	15.5	16.3	0.487	-0.4	0.9
1994	NYA	36	97	14.3	10.2	0.584	2.1	3.2	13.8	10.7	0.563	1.6	2.6
1995	NYA	37	126	13.8	11.9	0.537	0.9	1.9	13.5	12.2	0.526	0.6	1.7
1996	NYA	38	132	13.4	13.4	0.500	-0.1	1.0	13.1	13.7	0.488	-0.4	0.7
1997	NYA	39	104	9.1	8.6	0.515	0.2	1.0	9.1	8.7	0.513	0.2	1.0
1998	TBA	40	123	10.5	11.3	0.483	-0.5	0.5	10.8	11.0	0.497	-0.2	0.8
1999	TBA	41	90	7.7	9.3	0.454	-0.8	-0.1	8.1	8.9	0.476	-0.4	0.3
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,439	291.9	254.4	0.534	18.0	39.3	292.0	254.2	0.535	18.1	39.5
			------	------	------				------	------
PostSeason (career)			39	4.4	4.0	0.521		0.5	4.1	4.3	0.492		0.2
			------	------	------	------		------	------	------	------		------
COMBINED			2,478	296.2	258.4	0.534		39.8	296.1	258.5	0.535		39.7

1986 Postseason

The 1986 postseason was one of the best postseasons in major-league history. Two of the three series went the full seven games and the third series went six games, including four one-run games with the final two games (both Mets victories) lasting 12 and 16 innings long. The most famous play of the 1986 postseason was recreated by Kenyan children in one of my favorite videos.

The best players of the 1986 postseason, as measured by Player won-lost records, are shown in the next table.

	1986 Postseason: Total
		pWins	pLosses	pWORL
Mike Scott	HOU	1.9	0.7	0.7
Bruce Hurst	BOS	2.5	1.5	0.7
Bob Ojeda	NYN	1.8	0.8	0.7
Lenny Dykstra	NYN	2.3	1.3	0.6
Dave Henderson	BOS	1.7	1.0	0.5
Darryl Strawberry	NYN	1.9	1.2	0.4
Marty G. Barrett	BOS	1.8	1.4	0.4
Jesse Orosco	NYN	0.9	0.2	0.4

It is rare, but not completely unprecedented, for a player from the team which loses the World Series to nevertheless show up as having the best postseason according to Player won-lost records. But Mike Scott's team did not even make the World Series. In fact, Scott's team played the fewest postseason games of any of the four postseason teams. But two complete games with 1 run, 8 hits, and 1 walk allowed in 18 innings with 19 strikeouts, while getting only 4 runs in support from your offense, has a lot of value.

Top postseason players by round were as follows.

	1986 Postseason: World Series
		pWins	pLosses	pWORL
Bruce Hurst	BOS	1.7	0.9	0.5
Bob Ojeda	NYN	0.9	0.4	0.3

	1986 Postseason: League Championship Series
		pWins	pLosses	pWORL
Mike Scott	HOU	1.9	0.7	0.7
Lenny Dykstra	NYN	1.3	0.5	0.5
Darryl Strawberry	NYN	1.3	0.5	0.5

Not only did the World Champion Mets not have the most valuable player of the postseason, they did not have the most valuable player in either of their postseason seriesand, in fact, the most valuable member of the Mets, at least as measured by pWins over replacement level was only the third most valuable player of the 1986 postseason. But baseball is a team sport, of course, and the New York Mets won the 1986 World Series as a team.

Best of 1986 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) eWins over Positional Average in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 1986 in eWOPA by factor were as follows.

	Batting
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Jesse Barfield	15.2	11.0	2.1
Mike Schmidt	15.0	10.2	2.1
Don Mattingly	16.6	12.4	2.1
Wade Boggs	14.8	11.1	1.9

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense

	Baserunning
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Vince Coleman	3.5	1.7	0.8
Tim Raines Sr.	3.3	1.6	0.8

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense

	Pitching
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Mike Scott	14.6	9.6	5.0
Roger Clemens	14.3	10.1	4.2

	Fielding, P
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Fernando Valenzuela	0.9	0.4	0.5

	Fielding, C
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Jody Davis	2.9	2.2	0.7

	Fielding, 1B
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Greg Brock	1.9	1.3	0.5
Sid Bream	3.1	2.5	0.5

	Fielding, 2B
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Tom Herr	5.5	4.8	0.7

	Fielding, 3B
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Terry Pendleton	6.2	4.3	1.8

	Fielding, SS
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Ozzie Guillen	6.3	5.1	1.2

	Fielding, LF
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Gary Redus	3.9	3.3	0.6

	Fielding, CF
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Brett Butler	5.8	4.6	1.2
Gary Pettis	6.7	5.5	1.2

	Fielding, RF
	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Jesse Barfield	7.5	6.5	1.0

Best by Position

Next, we look at 1986 Major-League leaders in eWOPA by position. The figures shown here only include Player decisions earned while playing this particular position, and include no contextual adjustments (expected or actual).

	Catcher
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Lance Parrish	8.9	7.1	1.2

	First Base
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Glenn Davis	17.6	13.9	1.1

	Second Base
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Lou Whitaker	17.7	16.3	1.2

	Third Base
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Wade Boggs	20.1	16.1	1.7

	Shortstop
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Alan Trammell	20.0	17.4	2.1

	Left Field
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Brian Downing	18.3	15.2	1.2

	Center Field
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Rickey Henderson	19.7	16.9	1.2

	Right Field
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Jesse Barfield	22.1	17.8	1.7

	Starting Pitcher
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Mike Scott	14.9	9.9	2.5

	Relief Pitcher
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Mark Eichhorn	9.3	5.6	1.8

For relief pitchers, context-neutral records may not be the best measure of how good they are, as context can matter a great deal, depending on how a pitcher is used. Here are the top relief pitchers of 1986 in context, in terms of pWins and pWOPA.

Player	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL
	Top Relief Pitchers of 1986, based on pWORL
Dave Righetti	10.3	6.2	0.625	2.1	3.1
Mark Eichhorn	9.2	5.4	0.631	1.9	2.8
Dan Plesac	8.3	4.2	0.662	2.0	2.8
Tom Henke	7.8	4.2	0.651	1.8	2.5
Jeff Reardon	9.2	6.5	0.585	1.4	2.4

	Designated Hitter
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Ken Phelps	5.0	2.9	0.9
Johnny Grubb	4.4	2.6	0.8
Larry Parrish	9.5	7.6	0.7
Don Baylor	13.3	11.4	0.7

Finally, here are the best at three oft-forgotten positions that can nevertheless matter: pitcher offense, pinch hitting, and pinch running.

	Pitcher Offense
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Rick Rhoden	1.7	1.9	0.5

	Pinch Hitter
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Candy Maldonado	1.6	0.8	0.4

	Pinch Runner
	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Eric Davis	0.5	0.0	0.2

Noteworthy Players of 1986

Baseball loves and cherishes its records more than any other sport. Arguably the two most well-known baseball records are career hits and career home runs. The holders of these two records have two things in common. First, neither Pete Rose (4,256 hits) nor Barry Bonds (762 home runs) are in the Hall of Fame. Second, their careers overlapped for one season: 1986.

The 1986 season was the final season in Pete Rose's 24-year career and the first season in Barry Bonds's 22-year career. Their careers, as measured by Player won-lost records, are compared in the final table of this article.

Age	Games	pWins	pLoss	Win Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLoss	Win Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL
	Pete Rose Sr.						Barry Bonds
21							113	15.5	15.1	0.507	-0.1	1.0
22	157	18.4	20.5	0.474	-0.6	0.9	150	18.8	17.0	0.525	0.3	1.7
23	136	15.2	15.3	0.499	0.6	1.8	144	21.4	15.9	0.574	2.2	3.6
24	162	21.4	19.0	0.530	1.6	3.2	159	21.1	19.1	0.526	0.3	1.7
25	156	19.6	20.0	0.495	0.3	1.9	151	24.1	16.5	0.593	3.0	4.5
26	148	21.4	18.7	0.534	0.6	2.3	153	24.3	15.8	0.606	3.7	5.3
27	149	21.3	18.7	0.532	0.5	2.1	140	22.2	14.7	0.602	3.2	4.6
28	156	23.9	17.9	0.572	2.1	3.9	159	26.9	15.6	0.633	5.0	6.6
29	159	22.4	18.5	0.547	1.2	3.0	112	18.6	13.2	0.585	2.3	3.6
30	160	22.0	19.5	0.530	0.5	2.1	144	24.7	17.2	0.590	3.1	4.8
31	154	22.5	18.6	0.548	1.1	2.8	158	25.6	17.7	0.592	3.1	4.9
32	160	24.1	19.8	0.549	1.2	3.0	159	24.9	17.4	0.588	3.3	5.0
33	163	22.4	19.9	0.530	0.4	2.0	156	24.6	16.8	0.595	3.4	5.1
34	162	22.7	17.7	0.561	2.1	3.7	102	15.6	11.0	0.588	1.9	3.0
35	162	21.7	17.1	0.560	2.0	3.5	142	23.8	15.3	0.609	3.6	5.1
36	162	17.4	16.7	0.510	-0.0	1.3	153	28.0	15.5	0.643	5.3	7.2
37	159	20.0	17.1	0.539	1.1	2.5	143	25.4	13.2	0.657	5.3	6.8
38	163	16.7	16.3	0.506	-0.6	0.7	130	21.0	11.6	0.644	4.0	5.3
39	162	17.2	15.4	0.527	0.1	1.4	147	23.2	11.5	0.668	5.1	6.5
40	107	11.3	10.1	0.528	0.2	1.1	14	1.7	1.4	0.559	0.1	0.3
41	162	15.2	16.2	0.485	-1.1	0.1	130	15.2	11.7	0.565	1.3	2.3
42	151	12.4	13.9	0.471	-1.2	-0.2	126	15.3	11.9	0.562	1.3	2.3
43	121	10.5	11.4	0.480	-0.8	0.0
44	119	12.1	10.5	0.535	0.2	1.0
45	72	5.4	5.7	0.487	-0.4	0.0
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	3,562	437.3	394.6	0.526	11.3	44.2	2,985	462.0	314.9	0.595	61.0	91.4

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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