Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Aaron Sele
2013 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Aaron Sele

The first table below presents Aaron Sele's career as measured by Player won-lost records.

Aaron Sele
Basic Player Won-Lost Records
Value Decomposition
Season Team Age Games pWins pLosses pWin Pct. pWOPA pWORL eWins eLosses eWin Pct. eWOPA eWORL
1993BOS23
18
6.34.70.5710.8
1.4
6.95.90.5400.61.2
1994BOS24
22
7.37.10.5070.2
1.0
8.57.10.5440.81.7
1995BOS25
6
2.71.60.6340.6
0.9
2.12.00.5100.10.3
1996BOS26
29
8.98.60.5090.4
1.4
10.29.00.5310.81.9
1997BOS27
33
11.412.90.470-0.5
0.9
10.212.30.453-0.80.5
1998TEX28
33
15.012.70.5411.4
2.9
13.111.30.5371.22.5
1999TEX29
33
13.411.00.5491.4
2.7
13.011.60.5270.92.2
2000SEA30
34
13.311.10.5451.3
2.6
13.310.90.5501.42.7
2001SEA31
34
13.19.60.5772.1
3.3
12.611.20.5291.02.4
2002ANA32
26
8.88.30.5150.4
1.3
9.610.40.478-0.20.8
2003ANA33
25
7.510.10.425-1.1
-0.1
7.19.20.435-0.90.1
2004ANA34
28
7.17.00.5030.2
1.0
7.78.40.480-0.20.8
2005SEA35
21
7.29.70.427-1.1
-0.2
6.78.60.439-0.8-0.0
2006LAN36
28
7.16.90.5070.4
1.1
6.25.90.5090.41.0
2007NYN37
34
1.31.70.445-0.2
0.0
2.52.90.458-0.30.1
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER (reg. season)
404
130.6123.10.5156.3
20.2
129.5126.70.5053.917.9
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
PostSeason (career)
7
2.33.50.399 -0.22.22.90.427 -0.0
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
COMBINED
411
132.9126.60.515
20.0
131.7129.70.505 17.9


Aaron Sele's best season, as measured by pWins over positional average (pWOPA) or replacement level (pWORL), was 2001, when he compiled a record of 13.1 - 9.6 (2.1 pWOPA, 3.3 pWORL) for the Seattle Mariners.

The 2001 Mariners won a major-league record 116 regular-season games. The Mariners were mostly a good team from 1995 through 2003. Even so, outside of 2001, the team never won more than 93 games in a season (which it did in 2002 and 2003). Winning 116 games in one season seems like something of a fluke. So how did the Mariners do that?

Basically, Aaron Sele is the perfect example of how the 2001 Mariners won so many games. They compiled a group of players like Sele - almost all at least pretty good, but mostly not great, all having one of the best seasons of their careers. One thing I found in building Player won-lost records is that a team of players who are all a bit above-average will tend to win a lot of games - probably more than you'd think. And this effect is, essentially, multiplicative - surrounding better players with better players magnifies everybody's wins.

Note, for example, that while 2001 was Aaron Sele's best season as measured by pWins, it was not his best season controlling for context and teammate quality. According to (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) eWins, Sele was a little bit better in 2000; his 2000 performance just translated into slightly fewer wins because of the context in which it took place.

The table below shows everybody on the 2001 Mariners who had at least ten player decisions (pWins + pLosses). The first four columns show their Player won-lost record for the 2001 Mariners. Next to their pWORL I show two more numbers: their eWORL in 2001 and their highest career pWORL outside of 2001.

2001 Seattle Mariners
Player pWins pLosses pWOPA pWORL eWORL Best non-2001
pWORL
Bret Boone24.316.84.15.94.25.1
Mike Cameron21.715.03.45.02.63.3
Ichiro Suzuki24.718.12.74.63.43.9
Edgar Martinez14.58.42.84.33.14.7
Freddy Antonio Garcia14.18.63.14.34.02.9
Jamie Moyer13.38.82.53.82.63.5
John Olerud18.813.42.03.41.84.0
Aaron Sele13.19.62.13.32.42.9
Mark T. McLemore15.811.82.13.31.92.1
Carlos Guillen14.211.71.62.71.74.1
Paul Abbott10.68.61.32.31.21.3
David Bell13.812.00.92.00.71.9
Kazuhiro Sasaki6.94.50.91.70.71.7
Al Martin10.18.40.61.50.40.7
Stan Javier9.57.90.61.30.81.9
Dan Wilson7.67.50.51.21.02.0
John Halama6.66.9-0.10.70.51.6
------------------------------
Total (Players shown)239.7178.031.251.533.047.7


Two somewhat remarkable facts emerge. First, outside of 5th-starter John Halama, everybody else in the above table was above average. Second, if (virtually) everybody (of significance) on the 2001 Seattle Mariners had matched their best non-2001 season, the Mariners would have accumulated 4 fewer pWORL, i.e., they would have won 4 fewer games than they actually did.

2013 Hall of Fame Ballot Series


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