Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Gregory 'Woody' Williams
2013 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Gregory 'Woody' Williams

The first table below presents Gregory 'Woody' Williams's career as measured by Player won-lost records.

Gregory 'Woody' Williams
Basic Player Won-Lost Records
Value Decomposition
Season Team Age Games pWins pLosses pWin Pct. pWOPA pWORL eWins eLosses eWin Pct. eWOPA eWORL
1993TOR26
30
1.61.70.476-0.1
0.1
1.81.90.491-0.10.2
1994TOR27
38
2.42.30.508-0.0
0.3
2.82.30.5410.20.5
1995TOR28
23
1.92.20.461-0.2
0.0
2.72.70.503-0.10.3
1996TOR29
12
4.33.70.5360.4
0.8
3.73.30.5250.20.6
1997TOR30
31
10.612.40.463-0.6
0.7
11.712.10.4910.01.4
1998TOR31
32
11.713.00.472-0.4
0.9
13.013.70.487-0.01.4
1999SDN32
34
12.413.60.4770.0
1.3
12.914.60.469-0.21.1
2000SDN33
28
10.010.90.4800.2
1.2
11.210.80.5090.81.8
34
37
13.712.80.5181.3
2.6
13.615.30.4700.01.5
2002SLN35
18
7.55.50.5741.3
1.9
6.65.10.5631.01.6
2003SLN36
34
15.213.00.5381.9
3.3
14.413.20.5231.42.8
2004SLN37
34
12.510.60.5411.6
2.8
11.812.50.4870.41.7
2005SDN38
30
10.112.50.448-0.7
0.4
9.812.20.446-0.70.3
2006SDN39
26
8.88.70.5040.6
1.4
9.110.70.460-0.20.8
2007HOU40
34
11.514.50.441-1.0
0.4
11.314.20.444-0.90.5
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER (reg. season)
441
134.1137.40.4944.3
18.3
136.3144.50.4852.016.5
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
PostSeason (career)
8
2.93.60.452 0.22.62.90.479 0.3
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
COMBINED
449
137.1141.00.494
18.5
138.9147.40.485 16.8


Player won-lost records are calculated via nine separate components. Pitchers receive at least some credit (and blame) for seven of these components:

Component 1: Basestealing
Component 2: Wild Pitches and Passed Balls
Component 3: Balls not in Play
Component 4: Balls in Play
Component 5: Hits versus Outs on Balls in Play
Component 6: Singles versus Doubles versus Triples
Component 7: Double Plays
The next table breaks down Woody Williams's context-neutral, teammate-adjusted pitching won-lost record by component.

Pitching Won-Lost Records by Component
eWin eLoss eWinPct NetWins
Component 11.71.40.5530.3
Component 21.61.30.5560.3
Component 331.622.00.5899.5
Component 464.879.60.449-14.8
Component 517.416.10.5191.3
Component 61.71.70.5010.0
Component 70.50.70.420-0.2


Components 3 and 4 are not tied to .500 separately but are instead tied to .500 jointly. Williams's combined Component 3-4 winning percentage of 0.487 is, hence, a bit below average.

Williams's strengths were in somewhat more hidden components. He was very good at preventing basestealers and avoiding wild pitches. He was also very good at having balls in play converted into outs more often than expected, given the type of hit and who it was hit to.

The last of these, what I call Component 5, has been the topic of quite a bit of controversy in sabermetric circles. Specifically, there is a strong school of thought that says that pitchers have (virtually) no impact on balls in play. My research suggests that pitchers do have some impact on this, so that they are given around one-third of the credit for Component 5.

As an example, Woody Williams in his career pitched for four different teams in two different leagues over a 15-year period. According to the pitching statistics at Baseball-Reference.com, Williams allowed line drives on 21% of the balls-in-play he allowed, a number that was exactly league average for his career. Yet, for his career, he allowed a batting average on balls-in-play (BaBIP) of .280 vs. a league average of .296. His BaBIP was below .296 in 12 of his 15 seasons (and exactly .296 once) and he accomplished this feat at least once with all four teams for whom he played. From 1997 - 2004, his BaBIP was below .296 every season even as Williams changed leagues once and teams twice. The fact that William got more outs on balls-in-play than other pitchers persisted throughout his career.

In fact, Woody Williams's net Component 5 pitching wins are among the top 50 career totals for pitchers for whom I have calculated Player won-lost records.

Component 5 Pitching Wins: Top 50, career, sorted by Net Wins
Player eWin eLoss eWinPct NetWins
Tom Seaver37.233.50.5263.7
Don Sutton42.839.40.5213.4
Warren Spahn42.439.20.5193.2
Charlie Hough30.327.30.5263.0
Catfish Hunter28.225.40.5272.8
Robin Roberts40.137.40.5172.7
Ted Lyons33.631.00.5202.6
Don Newcombe17.915.40.5382.5
Bob Buhl22.420.20.5262.2
Whitey Ford26.023.80.5222.2
Tom Glavine36.434.20.5162.2
Dave Stieb23.221.10.5242.1
Jim Palmer30.728.60.5182.1
Roger Clemens34.632.50.5162.1
Vida Blue27.725.60.5192.1
Ralph Terry16.514.50.5332.0
Sid Fernandez13.311.30.5402.0
Jamie Moyer33.131.10.5152.0
Jack Morris30.628.60.5172.0
Fergie Jenkins35.933.90.5141.9
Red Lucas21.519.60.5231.9
Bronson Arroyo19.817.90.5251.9
Larry Gura19.017.10.5261.9
Larry Dierker20.018.20.5251.9
Johnny Podres19.117.30.5251.8
Ralph Branca12.210.40.5401.8
Bucky Walters25.423.60.5181.8
Milt Pappas27.025.30.5171.8
Sandy Koufax16.314.50.5291.8
Luis Tiant26.624.90.5171.7
Andy Messersmith17.015.20.5271.7
Tiny Bonham13.912.20.5331.7
Lon Warneke20.418.70.5221.7
Marty Pattin17.916.20.5251.7
Jarrod Washburn15.613.90.5281.7
Bud Black18.116.40.5241.7
Justin Verlander17.716.10.5241.6
Barry Zito19.517.90.5221.6
Jesse Haines23.021.40.5181.6
Bert Blyleven39.738.10.5101.6
Steve Trachsel20.619.00.5191.5
Bob Forsch25.624.10.5151.5
Pete Alexander18.216.70.5211.5
Curt Schilling23.321.80.5161.5
Sal Maglie13.912.40.5281.5
Pete Harnisch15.914.40.5241.5
Chris R. Young9.58.00.5421.5
Red Ruffing30.028.50.5121.4
Carl Erskine13.512.10.5281.4
Bob Feller27.726.30.5131.4


2013 Hall of Fame Ballot Series


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