Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Jeff Bagwell

2015 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Jeff Bagwell

The first table below presents Jeff Bagwell's career as measured by Player won-lost records.

Jeff Bagwell
Basic Player Won-Lost Records
Value Decomposition
Season Team Age Games pWins pLosses pWin Pct. pWOPA pWORL eWins eLosses eWin Pct. eWOPA eWORL
1991HOU23
156
17.815.90.5280.1
1.5
18.115.70.5360.41.7
1992HOU24
162
22.616.90.5721.8
3.3
20.516.70.5511.02.4
1993HOU25
142
16.713.90.5450.5
1.7
16.912.90.5671.22.3
1994HOU26
110
17.19.90.6322.7
3.8
16.79.30.6432.94.0
1995HOU27
114
15.310.70.5891.5
2.5
15.911.40.5821.42.5
1996HOU28
162
22.915.00.6042.8
4.4
21.915.20.5902.33.8
1997HOU29
162
22.014.60.6022.3
3.7
23.214.30.6183.04.4
1998HOU30
147
19.313.30.5911.9
3.2
19.614.00.5831.73.0
1999HOU31
162
22.814.20.6163.3
4.7
21.014.60.5902.23.6
2000HOU32
159
18.715.60.5460.4
1.8
20.114.60.5801.63.0
2001HOU33
161
22.414.10.6143.0
4.6
20.214.80.5781.63.1
2002HOU34
158
19.515.10.5641.1
2.5
18.214.20.5620.92.2
2003HOU35
160
18.516.10.5350.3
1.6
18.115.30.5420.51.8
2004HOU36
156
16.714.00.5440.6
1.8
16.714.00.5440.61.8
2005HOU37
39
3.13.00.510-0.1
0.2
3.02.80.5240.00.3
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER (reg. season)
2,150
275.4202.40.57622.3
41.3
270.1199.60.57521.239.9
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
PostSeason (career)
33
2.53.40.423 -0.42.62.80.488 0.0
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
COMBINED
2,183
277.9205.80.576
40.9
272.7202.40.575 39.9


The 2015 Hall-of-Fame ballot is Jeff Bagwell's 5th appearance on a Hall-of-Fame ballot. In my 2013 Hall-of-Fame ballot series, I compared Bagwell to Frank Thomas, with whom he shares a birthdate (May 27, 1968). In the 2014 Hall-of-Fame ballot series, I looked at how Jeff Bagwell ranks on the list of the greatest first basemen in major-league baseball.

The next table shows the 10 players most similar to Jeff Bagwell, as measured by Player won-lost records.

Wins over Baseline
Player Games pWins pLosses pWOPA pWORL Batting Baserunning Pitching Fielding
Jeff Bagwell
2150
275.4202.422.3
41.3
27.41.30.02.0
Dick Allen
1747
236.9181.819.1
36.0
24.10.40.0-0.7
Willie Stargell
2355
293.6232.318.8
40.1
26.8-0.30.02.3
Miguel Cabrera
2224
285.9227.222.3
41.5
25.3-0.50.00.8
Gary Sheffield
2573
342.0289.817.6
43.4
26.00.90.0-0.4
Johnny Mize
1746
203.4145.720.7
35.2
23.80.30.01.5
Larry Walker
1983
266.9214.717.2
36.3
19.91.10.03.7
George Brett
2706
328.0274.922.8
47.6
20.01.20.04.9
Jim Thome
2540
273.8209.424.8
47.4
31.7-0.60.00.8
Chipper Jones
2495
336.7258.533.3
56.5
25.50.40.03.6
Albert Pujols
2575
334.8243.534.1
58.0
30.01.00.04.6


The list of names in the above table is quite impressive. Five of the ten players are already in the Hall of Fame. One will almost certainly be elected when eligible and another is not yet eligible. Two players on the list join Bagwell on this year's BBWAA Hall-of-Fame ballot.

That leaves the player most similar to Jeff Bagwell, as measured by career Player won-lost records: Dick Allen. Allen has been elected to Baseball Think Factory's Hall of Merit (as has Bagwell). He is also on the current Veterans' Committee Hall-of-Fame ballot.

The next table compares the careers of Jeff Bagwell and Dick Allen by season, as measured by pWins.

Jeff Bagwell Dick Allen
Age Games pWins pLoss Win Pct. pWOPA pWORL Games pWins pLoss Win Pct. pWOPA pWORL
21
 
90.70.40.6380.10.2
22
 
16225.117.70.5873.35.0
23
15617.815.90.5280.1
1.5
16121.618.60.5371.02.6
24
16222.616.90.5721.8
3.3
14122.916.10.5872.94.4
25
14216.713.90.5450.5
1.7
12219.714.40.5782.33.8
26
11017.19.90.6322.7
3.8
15225.218.00.5832.64.4
27
11415.310.70.5891.5
2.5
11814.011.90.5410.21.3
28
16222.915.00.6042.8
4.4
12214.912.40.5460.61.7
29
16222.014.60.6022.3
3.7
15521.217.80.5441.02.5
30
14719.313.30.5911.9
3.2
14823.212.10.6584.15.6
31
16222.814.20.6163.3
4.7
727.86.20.5570.51.1
32
15918.715.60.5460.4
1.8
12814.611.50.5581.12.1
33
16122.414.10.6143.0
4.6
11912.111.70.508-0.50.4
34
15819.515.10.5641.1
2.5
858.78.00.521-0.10.5
35
16018.516.10.5350.3
1.6
535.35.10.510-0.00.4
36
15616.714.00.5440.6
1.8
37
393.13.00.510-0.1
0.2
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER RECORDS2,150275.4202.40.57622.3
41.3
1,747236.9181.80.56619.136.0


Although their career totals end up very close, Allen and Bagwell get there via fairly different routes. Allen had four seasons in which he earned more pWins over replacement level (pWORL) than Bagwell did in his best season. But Allen was only an above-average player for 11 seasons, while Bagwell was an above-average first baseman for 14 seasons. Bagwell was also much more durable in-season, playing 140 or more games in a season 12 times, a level that Allen only reached 6 times. To some extent, then, even though Bagwell and Allen end up very close in career value, one's (statistical) preference for one or the other is likely to come down to one's preference for peak (Allen) or career (Bagwell)

Both Jeff Bagwell and Dick Allen had excellent major-league careers, both of which are, in my opinion, easily Hall-of-Fame worthy (at least statistically).

2015 Hall of Fame Ballot Series




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