Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Tim Raines Sr.

2015 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Tim Raines Sr.

The first table below presents Tim Raines Sr.'s career as measured by Player won-lost records.

Tim Raines Sr.
Basic Player Won-Lost Records
Value Decomposition
Season Team Age Games pWins pLosses pWin Pct. pWOPA pWORL eWins eLosses eWin Pct. eWOPA eWORL
1979MON19
0
0.00.00.0000.0
0.0
0.00.00.0000.00.0
1980MON20
9
0.40.70.332-0.2
-0.1
0.71.00.429-0.1-0.0
1981MON21
81
13.411.10.5470.7
1.7
13.010.20.5600.91.9
1982MON22
156
20.519.70.510-0.1
1.4
21.020.70.504-0.41.2
1983MON23
156
25.619.90.5622.0
3.7
25.519.70.5652.13.7
1984MON24
160
23.920.50.5381.0
2.7
24.119.20.5571.83.4
1985MON25
150
22.119.00.5380.9
2.4
22.417.40.5621.83.3
1986MON26
151
20.718.80.5240.3
1.7
23.119.10.5481.32.8
1987MON27
139
21.616.40.5671.9
3.4
20.816.00.5661.83.2
1988MON28
109
15.113.40.5300.4
1.4
15.513.40.5360.51.6
1989MON29
145
18.916.90.5280.3
1.6
19.616.70.5400.72.0
1990MON30
130
17.115.70.5220.1
1.3
17.315.40.5290.31.5
1991CHA31
155
17.318.20.488-0.7
0.8
18.718.30.506-0.01.5
1992CHA32
144
20.315.80.5622.0
3.4
20.316.10.5571.83.3
1993CHA33
115
15.012.00.5551.3
2.4
14.812.40.5430.92.0
1994CHA34
100
13.111.10.5420.9
1.9
12.111.70.5070.01.0
1995CHA35
133
14.715.80.481-0.9
0.5
15.815.90.498-0.41.0
1996NYA36
59
6.75.80.5340.3
0.8
6.45.80.5240.20.7
1997NYA37
74
8.67.10.5470.7
1.4
8.57.80.5240.31.1
1998NYA38
109
9.17.10.5590.8
1.7
8.88.20.5190.21.0
1999OAK39
58
3.95.00.435-0.6
-0.2
3.93.80.5060.00.3
41
51
3.43.30.509-0.0
0.3
3.12.60.5400.20.4
2002FLO42
97
1.82.50.422-0.3
-0.0
2.22.70.459-0.10.2
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER (reg. season)
2,481
313.2275.90.53210.7
33.9
317.9274.20.53713.937.2
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
PostSeason (career)
34
3.64.00.475 0.03.44.00.458 -0.1
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
COMBINED
2,515
316.8280.00.532
33.9
321.3278.20.537 37.1


The 2014 Hall-of-Fame ballot is Tim Raines's eighth appearance on a Hall-of-Fame ballot. In my 2013 Hall-of-Fame ballot series, I looked at Tim Raines's baserunning. For my 2014 Hall-of-Fame ballot series, I compared Raines to Hall-of-Famer Tony Gwynn.

This year, I am doing another comparison.

Tim Raines was arguably the second-best leadoff hitter in baseball history. Unfortunately, his career completely overlapped with the best leadoff hitter in baseball history, Rickey Henderson. Not only that, but the 1980's were something of a Golden Age for leadoff hitters.

One leadoff hitter of that era who hung around long enough to amass 3,319 career hits and first-ballot election to the Hall of Fame was longtime Milwaukee Brewer (and short-time Toronto Blue Jay and Minnesota Twin) Paul Molitor.

As can be seen above, Tim Raines looks somewhat better in Player won-lost records when controlling for context - i.e., using eWins. Molitor looks somewhat better in context. But since this article is about Raines, not Molitor, the next table compares the careers of Raines and Molitor as measured by (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) eWins.

Tim Raines Sr. Paul Molitor
Season Games eWins eLoss Win Pct. eWOPA eWORL Games eWins eLoss Win Pct. eWOPA eWORL
1978
 
12415.115.30.4970.41.6
1979
 
14019.517.40.5291.63.0
1980
90.71.00.429-0.1
-0.0
11115.813.30.5421.72.8
1981
8113.010.20.5600.9
1.9
647.16.90.5070.00.6
1982
15621.020.70.504-0.4
1.2
16022.119.10.5371.43.0
1983
15625.519.70.5652.1
3.7
15118.517.90.5080.11.5
1984
16024.119.20.5571.8
3.4
121.11.30.453-0.1-0.0
1985
15022.417.40.5621.8
3.3
14017.516.60.5130.51.8
1986
15123.119.10.5481.3
2.8
10513.111.90.5250.51.4
1987
13920.816.00.5661.8
3.2
11815.111.10.5761.93.2
1988
10915.513.40.5360.5
1.6
15418.315.20.5461.52.9
1989
14519.616.70.5400.7
2.0
15519.516.70.5381.42.8
1990
13017.315.40.5290.3
1.5
10313.111.60.5300.71.6
1991
15518.718.30.506-0.0
1.5
15818.314.70.5541.23.0
1992
14420.316.10.5571.8
3.3
15817.213.80.5551.22.9
1993
11514.812.40.5430.9
2.0
16017.713.60.5651.83.6
1994
10012.111.70.5070.0
1.0
11511.39.00.5560.82.1
1995
13315.815.90.498-0.4
1.0
13011.511.20.506-0.31.1
1996
596.45.80.5240.2
0.7
16114.913.90.518-0.01.7
1997
748.57.80.5240.3
1.1
13511.611.00.514-0.01.3
1998
1098.88.20.5190.2
1.0
12610.811.60.482-0.80.6
1999
583.93.80.5060.0
0.3
2000
 
2001
513.12.60.5400.2
0.4
2002
972.22.70.459-0.1
0.2
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER RECORDS2,481317.9274.20.53713.9
37.2
2,680308.9273.00.53115.442.5
COMMON FULL-TIME SEASONS
(1981 - 1995)
2,024284.2242.30.54013.3
33.6
1,883221.2190.60.53712.631.4


The last row of the table compares the career records of Raines and Molitor over the fifteen seasons during which Raines was an everyday player. During that time period, Raines bested Molitor in eWins over both average and replacement level. Molitor makes up this gap in career difference with a couple of extra years of above-average baseball at both ends of his career. But Raines beats Molitor in 3 eWORL seasons 6 - 2.

Tough call as to who had the better career; even tougher to see how one could draw one's in/out line for the Hall of Fame between these two players.

2015 Hall of Fame Ballot Series




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