Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Billy Wagner

2016 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Billy Wagner

The first table below presents Billy Wagner's career as measured by Player won-lost records.

Billy Wagner
Basic Player Won-Lost Records
Value Decomposition
Season Team Age Games pWins pLosses pWin Pct. pWOPA pWORL eWins eLosses eWin Pct. eWOPA eWORL
1995HOU23
1
0.00.01.0000.0
0.0
0.00.01.0000.00.0
1996HOU24
37
4.33.10.5790.4
0.9
2.62.30.5250.00.3
1997HOU25
62
6.15.00.5480.3
1.0
3.62.90.5550.20.7
1998HOU26
58
6.04.70.5580.4
1.1
3.22.60.5560.20.6
1999HOU27
66
7.32.70.7312.2
2.8
4.02.10.6520.81.2
2000HOU28
28
2.54.20.375-0.9
-0.5
1.51.90.443-0.2-0.0
2001HOU29
64
6.93.90.6381.3
2.0
3.02.30.5650.20.6
2002HOU30
70
6.03.50.6351.1
1.8
3.82.50.6050.61.0
2003HOU31
78
7.64.40.6341.4
2.3
4.42.70.6170.71.2
2004PHI32
45
3.61.40.7241.0
1.3
2.71.60.6190.40.7
2005PHI33
75
6.83.60.6551.4
2.2
3.82.40.6100.61.0
2006NYN34
70
7.34.00.6451.4
2.2
3.72.80.5680.30.8
2007NYN35
66
5.93.30.6411.1
1.8
3.32.80.5440.20.6
2008NYN36
45
3.52.80.5550.2
0.7
2.31.50.6050.30.6
37
17
0.80.60.5760.1
0.2
0.80.50.6060.10.2
2010ATL38
71
5.63.30.6271.0
1.6
3.42.20.6100.50.9
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER (reg. season)
853
80.050.40.61412.6
21.4
46.133.20.5815.110.5
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
PostSeason (career)
14
0.71.30.367 -0.20.71.00.412 -0.1
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
COMBINED
867
80.851.70.614
21.3
46.834.20.581 10.4


The next table shows the 10 players most similar to Billy Wagner, as measured by Player won-lost records.

Wins over Baseline
Player Games pWins pLosses pWOPA pWORL Batting Baserunning Pitching Fielding
Billy Wagner
853
80.050.412.6
21.4
-0.10.05.80.2
Joe Nathan
787
78.948.313.8
22.2
-0.30.03.9-0.1
Tom Henke
642
67.342.210.5
17.4
-0.00.04.20.1
Kent Tekulve
1,050
83.665.96.7
15.8
-0.9-0.04.70.7
Dan Quisenberry
674
71.444.511.1
18.4
-0.0-0.04.00.4
Trevor Hoffman
1,034
100.762.316.6
27.4
-0.2-0.04.20.2
Rollie Fingers
945
121.197.39.8
23.0
-0.8-0.14.30.6
Jonathan Papelbon
689
67.836.813.5
20.8
0.00.03.70.0
Craig Kimbrel
479
47.522.810.9
15.9
-0.0-0.03.90.0
Doug Jones
846
84.459.89.8
18.8
-0.00.03.50.0
Kenley Jansen
475
44.220.110.9
15.4
0.0-0.03.70.0


The list of players most similar to Billy Wagner includes one Hall-of-Famer, Rollie Fingers. The next table compares the careers of Billy Wagner and Rollie Fingers, as measured by Player won-lost records.

Billy Wagner Rollie Fingers
Age Games pWins pLoss Win Pct. pWOPA pWORL Games pWins pLoss Win Pct. pWOPA pWORL
21
 
10.00.10.240-0.0-0.0
22
 
606.88.00.460-0.60.3
23
10.00.01.0000.0
0.0
458.88.60.5050.31.2
24
374.33.10.5790.4
0.9
487.17.00.5040.10.9
25
626.15.00.5480.3
1.0
657.95.00.6121.32.1
26
586.04.70.5580.4
1.1
628.15.90.5760.81.7
27
667.32.70.7312.2
2.8
768.65.70.6041.22.1
28
282.54.20.375-0.9
-0.5
769.15.60.6221.62.5
29
646.93.90.6381.3
2.0
709.28.30.5270.21.3
30
706.03.50.6351.1
1.8
789.27.70.5440.51.6
31
787.64.40.6341.4
2.3
679.36.50.5911.42.3
32
453.61.40.7241.0
1.3
545.17.80.394-1.4-0.7
33
756.83.60.6551.4
2.2
667.66.50.5360.51.3
34
707.34.00.6451.4
2.2
477.13.70.6601.52.2
35
665.93.30.6411.1
1.8
507.94.00.6661.72.4
36
453.52.80.5550.2
0.7
37
170.80.60.5760.1
0.2
335.02.50.6681.11.5
38
715.63.30.6271.0
1.6
474.34.50.486-0.30.3
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER RECORDS85380.050.40.61412.6
21.4
945121.197.30.5559.823.0


As suggested by the previous table, Wagner and Fingers are a pretty good statistical match. Wagner had the best single season between the two, as measured by pWins over either positional average or replacement level - 1999 (although Rollie Fingers's 1981 season - his age-34 season above - was shortened by strike). Fingers leads Wagner in seasons with at least 2 pWORL, 6 - 4, although that becomes a 6 - 6 tie if the cutoff is dropped to 1.9 - they also each have one season of 1.8 and one more season between 1.5 and 1.8 (1.7 for Wagner, 1.6 for Fingers).

Choosing between the two largely comes down to personal preference. Fingers pitched more (1,701.1 IP, 11 seasons over 100 IP for Fingers vs. 903, 0 for Wagner), but Wagner pitched better (career ERA+ of 187 for Wagner vs. 120 for Fingers). This difference in quality vs. quantity tends to be true not only at the career level, but also at the season level. The result is that Wagner tends to beat Fingers in winning percentage and pWOPA (9 seasons w/ pWOPA of 1.0 or greater for Wagner vs. 7 seasons for Fingers), but Fingers makes up the difference in pWORL due to his considerable lead in innings pitched, so that Wagner beats Fingers in career pWOPA, but Fingers edges Wagner in career pWORL.

2016 Hall of Fame Ballot Series




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