Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Jeff Bagwell

2016 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Jeff Bagwell

The first table below presents Jeff Bagwell's career as measured by Player won-lost records.

Jeff Bagwell
Basic Player Won-Lost Records
Value Decomposition
Season Team Age Games pWins pLosses pWin Pct. pWOPA pWORL eWins eLosses eWin Pct. eWOPA eWORL
1991HOU23
156
17.815.90.5280.1
1.5
18.115.70.5360.41.7
1992HOU24
162
22.616.90.5721.8
3.3
20.516.70.5511.02.4
1993HOU25
142
16.713.90.5450.5
1.7
16.912.90.5671.22.3
1994HOU26
110
17.19.90.6322.7
3.8
16.79.30.6432.94.0
1995HOU27
114
15.310.70.5891.5
2.5
15.911.40.5821.42.5
1996HOU28
162
22.915.00.6042.8
4.4
21.915.20.5902.33.8
1997HOU29
162
22.014.60.6022.3
3.7
23.214.30.6183.04.4
1998HOU30
147
19.313.30.5911.9
3.2
19.614.00.5831.73.0
1999HOU31
162
22.814.20.6163.3
4.7
21.014.60.5902.23.6
2000HOU32
159
18.715.60.5460.4
1.8
20.114.60.5801.63.0
2001HOU33
161
22.414.10.6143.0
4.6
20.214.80.5781.63.1
2002HOU34
158
19.515.10.5641.1
2.5
18.214.20.5620.92.2
2003HOU35
160
18.516.10.5350.3
1.6
18.115.30.5420.51.8
2004HOU36
156
16.714.00.5440.6
1.8
16.714.00.5440.61.8
2005HOU37
39
3.13.00.510-0.1
0.2
3.02.80.5240.00.3
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER (reg. season)
2,150
275.4202.40.57622.3
41.3
270.1199.60.57521.239.9
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
PostSeason (career)
33
2.53.40.423 -0.42.62.80.488 0.0
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
COMBINED
2,183
277.9205.80.576
40.9
272.7202.40.575 39.9


The 2016 Hall-of-Fame ballot is Jeff Bagwell's sixth appearance on a Hall-of-Fame ballot. In my 2013 Hall-of-Fame ballot series, I compared Bagwell to Frank Thomas, with whom he shares a birthdate (May 27, 1968). In the 2014 Hall-of-Fame ballot series, I looked at how Jeff Bagwell ranks on the list of the greatest first basemen in major-league baseball. For the 2015 Hall-of-Fame ballot series, I compared Jeff Bagwell to the player most similar to him as measured by Player won-lost records, Dick Allen.

In my introductory article to this series, I noted that, based on Player Won-Lost Records, Willie Stargell basically rates as the average Hall-of-Famer. This article, then, compares Jeff Bagwell to Willie Stargell - which, in effect, compares Jeff Bagwell to the average Hall-of-Famer.

The career records of Jeff Bagwell and Willie Stargell, as measured by Player won-lost records, are presented in the next table.

Jeff Bagwell Willie Stargell
Age Games pWins pLoss Win Pct. pWOPA pWORL Games pWins pLoss Win Pct. pWOPA pWORL
22
 
100.61.00.394-0.2-0.1
23
15617.815.90.5280.1
1.5
1079.210.20.475-0.9-0.1
24
16222.616.90.5721.8
3.3
11712.412.40.501-0.50.5
25
14216.713.90.5450.5
1.7
14418.716.30.5340.51.9
26
11017.19.90.6322.7
3.8
14020.714.00.5962.84.1
27
11415.310.70.5891.5
2.5
13316.615.20.523-0.01.3
28
16222.915.00.6042.8
4.4
12716.616.10.508-0.60.8
29
16222.014.60.6022.3
3.7
14519.315.90.5481.02.5
30
14719.313.30.5911.9
3.2
13618.216.10.5310.21.7
31
16222.814.20.6163.3
4.7
14122.814.10.6173.65.0
32
15918.715.60.5460.4
1.8
13820.213.00.6082.43.8
33
16122.414.10.6143.0
4.6
14825.217.60.5892.94.7
34
15819.515.10.5641.1
2.5
14021.615.70.5792.33.7
35
16018.516.10.5350.3
1.6
12415.710.80.5931.72.7
36
15616.714.00.5440.6
1.8
11711.310.20.526-0.00.8
37
393.13.00.510-0.1
0.2
635.74.00.5860.61.0
38
 
12013.89.80.5861.52.4
39
 
12614.510.30.5841.52.5
40
 
676.45.30.5450.30.7
41
 
381.61.70.484-0.10.1
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER RECORDS2,150275.4202.40.57622.3
41.3
2,281291.2229.70.55918.939.9


For their careers, Bagwell and Stargell amassed almost the exact same number of pWins over positional average, with Bagwell beating Stargell 22.3 to 18.9. Stargell's career was five seasons longer than Bagwell's - although 3 of the 5 seasons were partial seasons and Bagwell tended to play more games per season than Stargell through their primes - so that Stargell's total games played ends up only 132 more than Bagwell's - about one full season. Still, the extra season worth of games allows Stargell to open up a small, but noticeable, lead in career pWins over replacement level, 39.9 to 41.3.

At the individual season level, Stargell has three seasons - 1966, 1971, and 1973 - better than Bagwell's best season (2001).

Bagwell matches Stargell, however, in total seasons with a pWOPA greater than 1.0 (with 9) and, because of better in-season durability, Bagwell beats Stargell in seasons with 3.0 or more pWORL, 6 to 5.

Based on Player won-lost records, it is certainly not a slam-dunk cinch that Jeff Bagwell had a more valuable career than Willie Stargell. But a strong case can certainly be made in Bagwell's favor. And, needless to say, one doesn't need to be definitively better than the average Hall-of-Famer to be a deserving Hall-of-Famer, as Jeff Bagwell fairly clearly is.

2016 Hall of Fame Ballot Series




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