Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Adam Dunn

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Adam Dunn

Five facts about Adam Dunn: The first two tables below present Adam Dunn's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
Value Decomposition
Season Team Age Games pWins pLosses pWORL pWOPA
2001CIN21
66
9.87.82.31.4
2002CIN22
158
19.217.02.60.8
2003CIN23
116
13.612.41.70.5
2004CIN24
161
21.917.45.23.3
2005CIN25
160
21.716.75.73.9
2006CIN26
160
20.218.52.30.4
2007CIN27
152
19.217.62.30.5
28
158
20.917.93.81.9
2009WAS29
159
19.317.91.8-0.0
2010WAS30
158
17.915.82.10.4
2011CHA31
122
8.810.3-0.9-2.1
2012CHA32
151
15.311.74.63.0
2013CHA33
149
12.614.2-0.7-2.3
34
131
9.99.80.9-0.4
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER (reg. season)
2,001
230.3205.033.511.4
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
PostSeason (career)
0
0.00.00.00.0
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
COMBINED
2,001
230.3205.033.511.4


Expected Player Won-Lost Records
Value Decomposition
Season Team Age Games eWins eLosses eWORL eWOPA
2001CIN21
66
9.77.82.21.4
2002CIN22
158
19.217.02.60.8
2003CIN23
116
14.211.82.81.5
2004CIN24
161
22.117.25.63.7
2005CIN25
160
21.217.24.72.9
2006CIN26
160
20.018.62.00.2
2007CIN27
152
19.917.03.61.9
28
158
20.818.03.41.6
2009WAS29
159
20.217.14.02.2
2010WAS30
158
18.814.93.92.3
2011CHA31
122
8.510.6-1.4-2.6
2012CHA32
151
14.812.23.61.9
2013CHA33
149
14.012.82.10.6
34
131
10.49.41.70.5
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CAREER (reg. season)
2,001
233.6201.740.918.7
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
PostSeason (career)
0
0.00.00.00.0
------ ------ ------ ------ ------
COMBINED
2,001
233.6201.740.918.7


This is Adam Dunn's first year on the Hall-of-Fame ballot.

Vote Prediction
It is an honor for Adam Dunn simply to appear on a Hall-of-Fame ballot.

Player Won-Lost Records and Adam Dunn
Batting Player won-lost records are calculated across seven components. The next table defines these components and presents Adam Dunn's (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) career record by component.

Component eWins eLosses eWin Pct.
Component 3: Balls not in Play40.051.20.439
Component 4: Balls in Play90.040.10.692
Component 5: Hits vs. Outs on Balls in Play32.834.80.485
Component 6: Singles vs. Doubles vs. Triples3.63.90.478
Component 7: Double Plays2.11.90.527
Component 8: Baserunner Outs0.80.70.561
Component 9: Baserunner Advancements2.82.60.515


Component 3 measures the ability to draw walks (and/or hit-by-pitches) and to avoid strikeouts. Adam Dunn drew 100 or more walks eight times in his career, which translates into a lot of Component 3 wins. (He also struck out 150 or more times 12 times - so, a lot of Component 3 losses, too.)

Component 4 measures balls on which a batter makes contact - including home runs - and measures expected results based on how and where the ball was hit. That is, home runs and line drives are positive Component 4 events; pop ups and weak ground balls are negative Component 4 events. For his career, Adam Dunn hit 462 home runs with eight seasons of 38 or more home runs. Adam Dunn sometimes had trouble making contact, but when he made contact with the baseball, good things (if you were rooting for his team) frequently happened. Not surprisingly, then, Adam Dunn was excellent at Component 4.

I tend to think of Components 3 and 4 as measuring "pure hitting" (and "pure pitching"). There are no complications from fielders or a player's running ability. It's the essence of the pure batter-pitcher matchup.

The next table shows the top 50 players in career batting wins for Components 3 and 4 combined, over non-pitcher average, since 1969: in essence, the 50 best "pure hitters" of the past 50 years.

Top 50 Pure Hitters
eWins eLosses eWinPct eWOPA
1Barry Bonds220.7103.90.680113.0
2Albert Pujols179.8107.10.62770.4
3Mike Schmidt161.190.70.64066.9
4Frank E. Thomas155.288.70.63666.3
5Mark McGwire140.975.00.65365.0
6Gary Sheffield154.894.40.62158.1
7Manny Ramirez150.192.40.61957.1
8Jim Thome163.0105.30.60756.9
9Alex Rodriguez173.3118.70.59354.1
10Jeff Bagwell140.583.70.62653.7
11Rafael Palmeiro163.5112.00.59350.9
12Chipper Jones148.495.40.60949.7
13Ken Griffey Jr.162.0112.20.59148.4
14Jason Giambi132.384.80.60947.0
15Miguel Cabrera142.294.10.60246.9
16Reggie Jackson155.2108.30.58945.9
17David Ortiz145.8100.20.59345.1
18Darrell Evans146.398.60.59745.0
19Fred McGriff145.999.90.59444.0
20Rickey Henderson158.5114.60.58043.1
21Joe L. Morgan123.378.50.61142.0
22Joey Votto108.965.30.62541.4
23Eddie Murray161.2118.70.57641.3
24Jack Clark118.775.10.61241.3
25Mike Piazza114.371.60.61540.3
26Todd Helton125.684.50.59838.2
27Carlos Delgado125.486.40.59238.0
28Edgar Martinez113.575.60.60037.8
29Johnny Bench111.572.30.60736.5
30Adam Dunn130.091.30.58736.5
31Sammy Sosa143.2103.90.57936.2
32Carl Yastrzemski112.074.90.59936.2
33Willie Stargell95.058.00.62134.8
34Dwight Evans133.598.70.57534.7
35Mike Trout83.648.70.63234.7
36Edwin Encarnacion114.378.80.59234.6
37Lance Berkman110.573.70.60034.5
38Paul Konerko125.490.40.58134.4
39Vladimir Guerrero Sr.119.483.60.58834.1
40Ron Cey110.674.40.59833.5
41Reggie Smith95.060.20.61232.7
42Mark Teixeira112.879.50.58732.7
43Dave Winfield149.4115.40.56432.5
44Brian Downing114.782.70.58132.1
45Darryl Strawberry95.061.40.60731.6
46Jose Canseco117.686.00.57831.5
47Will Clark106.273.20.59231.3
48Brian S. Giles103.970.60.59531.2
49George Brett130.7100.10.56630.5
50Albert Belle95.064.40.59630.5

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense



Article last updated: November 26, 2019

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series




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