Barry Bonds

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Barry Bonds

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Barry Bonds

Five facts about Barry Bonds:

Barry Bonds won seven MVP awards spread over fifteen seasons, 1990 to 2004. Over that time period, Bonds also finished second in MVP voting twice, fourth once, and fifth twice.

Bonds led the National League in each of the three Triple Crown categories at least once, but never won a Triple Crown. He led the league in batting average in 2002 (.370) and 2004 (.362), in home runs in 1993 (46) and 2001 (73) and in RBI in 1993 (123).

Bonds won eight Gold Gloves, winning every year from 1990 through 1998, except for 1995.

Bonds holds the major-league career records for home runs (762) and walks (2,558). He is third in major-league history in runs scored (2,227), fourth in OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage, 1.051) and total bases (5,976), fifth in RBI (1,996) and slugging percentage (.607), and sixth in on-base percentage (.444).

Bonds was so good, in fact, that he got his first major-league hit 40 days before his major-league debut (sort of). Bonds made his major-league debut on May 30, 1986. A little more than two months later, on August 11, 1986, Bonds hit a game-winning single in the 17th inning of a game which was the continuation of a suspended game that was originally started (and, hence, per MLB rules, officially played) on April 20, 1986. So, Bonds is officially credited with a major-league hit (and RBI) on April 20, 1986, forty days before his official major-league debut on May 30, 1986.

The first two tables below present Barry Bonds's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1986	PIT	21	113	15.7	14.8	1.6	0.2
1987	PIT	22	150	19.0	16.8	2.8	1.1
1988	PIT	23	144	22.0	15.6	7.2	5.4
1989	PIT	24	159	21.1	19.1	2.6	0.7
1990	PIT	25	151	24.9	16.3	9.3	7.4
1991	PIT	26	153	24.7	15.6	10.0	8.1
1992	PIT	27	140	22.3	14.5	8.7	6.9
1993	SFN	28	159	27.5	15.4	13.2	11.1
1994	SFN	29	112	18.7	12.8	6.7	5.2
1995	SFN	30	144	25.0	17.1	9.0	6.9
1996	SFN	31	158	25.6	17.5	9.0	6.9
1997	SFN	32	159	25.4	17.1	9.4	7.3
1998	SFN	33	156	24.7	16.6	9.2	7.1
1999	SFN	34	102	15.8	10.8	5.6	4.3
2000	SFN	35	142	24.0	15.1	9.8	7.9
2001	SFN	36	153	28.3	15.2	14.5	12.3
2002	SFN	37	143	24.5	12.6	13.0	11.1
2003	SFN	38	130	21.2	11.4	10.6	9.0
2004	SFN	39	147	23.7	11.4	13.3	11.5
2005	SFN	40	14	1.8	1.3	0.6	0.4
2006	SFN	41	130	15.4	11.7	4.3	3.0
2007	SFN	42	126	15.3	12.0	4.0	2.7
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,985	466.8	310.6	174.4	136.5
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			48	6.4	6.5	0.1	-0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			3,033	473.2	317.1	174.5	136.0

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1986	PIT	21	113	16.9	13.7	4.0	2.5
1987	PIT	22	150	19.5	16.3	3.8	2.1
1988	PIT	23	144	21.2	16.4	5.5	3.6
1989	PIT	24	159	21.5	18.7	3.3	1.4
1990	PIT	25	151	24.0	17.1	7.7	5.8
1991	PIT	26	153	23.4	16.9	7.5	5.5
1992	PIT	27	140	22.1	14.7	8.3	6.6
1993	SFN	28	159	26.8	16.1	11.7	9.6
1994	SFN	29	112	18.9	12.6	7.0	5.5
1995	SFN	30	144	24.8	17.2	8.5	6.5
1996	SFN	31	158	26.1	17.0	10.1	8.0
1997	SFN	32	159	25.0	17.5	8.5	6.4
1998	SFN	33	156	24.1	17.1	7.9	5.9
1999	SFN	34	102	15.5	11.1	5.2	3.9
2000	SFN	35	142	23.3	15.8	8.2	6.3
2001	SFN	36	153	28.4	15.2	13.9	11.7
2002	SFN	37	143	24.3	12.8	12.5	10.6
2003	SFN	38	130	20.9	11.8	9.7	8.1
2004	SFN	39	147	23.3	11.8	12.3	10.5
2005	SFN	40	14	1.9	1.2	0.8	0.6
2006	SFN	41	130	15.4	11.7	4.3	3.0
2007	SFN	42	126	15.5	11.8	4.3	3.0
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,985	462.8	314.6	164.9	127.1
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			48	7.2	5.7	1.8	1.2
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			3,033	470.0	320.3	166.7	128.2

This is Barry Bonds's eighth year on the Hall-of-Fame ballot. I have been writing articles about Hall-of-Fame candidates since 2013 - Barry Bonds's first year on the ballot. Much of these earlier articles are somewhat obsolete due to changes to my Player won-lost records over time. But, for the sake of posterity, these old articles are linked at the end of my general article on Player won-lost records and the Hall of Fame.

Vote Prediction

The next table shows Barry Bonds's vote totals his first seven years on the Hall-of-Fame ballot.

Year	Votes	Percent

2013	206	36.2%
2014	198	34.7%
2015	202	36.8%
2016	195	44.3%
2017	238	53.8%
2018	238	56.4%
2019	251	59.1%

Bonds's vote percentage has increased fairly significantly from a low in 2014 of 34.7% to 59.1% last year, an increase of 24.4% in five years (4.9% per year). The magic number for election is 75%, so Bonds would need to increase by another 15.9% over his last three years on the ballot, or about 5.3% per year. By percentages, he has a shot.

But if you look, not at the percentages, but at the vote totals, his gains have been somewhat less impressive. Between 2015 and 2016, Bonds's percentage went up by 7.5% - his second-largest increase - but he actually got fewer votes the second time, because the number of voters declined from 549 to 440. That said, his largest year-to-year gain, the next year, was because he gained 43 votes as the electorate grew by two voters.

The last two years saw the total number of voters of 422 and 425. That would work out to needing somewhere between 300 and 310 votes for election. Looked at that way, Bonds would need to gain 55-60 votes in three years, or just under 20 votes per year. After gaining 43 votes in 2017, though, Bonds's gains the last two years have been 0 and 13 votes.

So where does that leave Bonds? It's hard to say. Looking at the awesome Hall-of-Fame tracker put together by Ryan Thibodeaux, Bonds had tended to do well with first-time voters: 8/10 in 2019, 11/13 in 2018, 13/15 in 2017. On the other hand, he was only +4 and +5 among returning voters in 2018 and 2019. Even if Bonds were to gain, say, 10 votes from new voters each year, replacing 10 old voters, none of whom voted for Bonds, that would only get him halfway to election in three years. And he's not getting 100% of votes from new voters - and those new voters are probably not all replacing retiring non-Bonds voters.

I think this might be the year where we begin to get a better sense of whether Bonds (and Clemens) can actually make it to 75% before their 10 years on the ballot are up. The ballot is far less deep than in previous years which could provide opportunities for returning candidates to see significant vote increases. The question is, how many voters might have been holding back their vote for Bonds (and Clemens) because they were voting for 10 other candidates? There is a column in Thibodeaux's Hall-of-Fame tracker "If No 10-Player Limit, Would Have Also Voted For:". Barry Bonds was named twice there. Only Roger Clemens (also two) and Curt Schilling (one mention) were named less as infrequently as Bonds. Still, that list is certainly not exhaustive.

If Bonds can increase his vote total by 25 votes this year - to 276 or so - then I think he (and Clemens) has a real chance to make the Hall of Fame in 2021 or (more likely) 2022. If he increases his vote total by less than, say, 15 - i.e., he ends up at 266 or lower, say - then I think he's unlikely to make it via the BBWAA. So, my prediction: Bonds gains 20 votes, or about 5%, and the situation remains murky. I'll go with a predicted vote percentage for Bonds of 64.0%.

Player Won-Lost Records and Barry Bonds

If you take Barry Bonds's statistics at face value, they are, of course, overwhelming. Bonds ranks in the top 10 in major-league history in games played, plate appearances, times on base, total bases, runs scored, RBI, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and he holds the major-league records for career walks and home runs.

But I think even more impressive than the career totals are the seasonal totals that built up to those career totals. He led his league at least once in batting average (2x), on-base percentage (10x), slugging percentage (7x), OPS (9x), walks (12x), home runs (2x), and total bases and RBI (once each). But even moving beyond hitting, Bonds was in the top 10 in his league in stolen bases nine times. On defense, he led left fielders in putouts seven times (he's also first in career putouts by a left fielder) and in assists six times winning eight Gold Gloves, most of which he deserved. Barry Bonds had huge seasons, over and over and over again.

The next table, then, shows the top 25 seasons since MLB integration, ranked by pWins over replacement level. Barry Bonds's seasons are in bold.

			Top 25 Single Season Performances since 1947, ranked by pWins over Replacement Level
	Player	Season	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Barry Bonds	2001	28.3	15.2	12.3	14.5
2	Sandy Koufax	1965	25.0	14.5	11.8	14.2
3	Steve Carlton	1972	25.0	14.9	11.3	13.7
4	Mickey Mantle	1957	24.8	12.6	11.5	13.4
5	Barry Bonds	2004	23.7	11.4	11.5	13.3
6	Barry Bonds	1993	27.5	15.4	11.1	13.2
7	Larry Doby	1954	27.0	15.0	10.9	13.1
8	Dwight Gooden	1985	21.1	11.0	11.2	13.1
9	Barry Bonds	2002	24.5	12.6	11.1	13.0
10	Willie Mays	1962	29.6	18.1	10.6	13.0
11	Mickey Mantle	1961	26.0	14.6	10.6	12.7
12	Roger Maris	1961	27.2	15.3	10.4	12.6
13	Sandy Koufax	1963	22.5	13.3	10.4	12.6
14	Jackie Robinson	1951	25.6	15.5	10.3	12.5
15	Joe L. Morgan	1972	25.7	16.1	10.0	12.1
16	Joe L. Morgan	1973	26.8	17.2	9.8	12.0
17	Bobby Avila	1954	24.8	15.3	9.7	11.9
18	Mickey Mantle	1955	24.6	13.9	9.9	11.8
19	Vern Stephens	1949	27.2	18.2	9.4	11.8
20	Jim Edmonds	2004	24.1	13.8	9.9	11.8
21	Ted Williams	1948	25.9	15.2	9.6	11.7
22	Mickey Mantle	1956	25.2	14.7	9.6	11.7
23	Greg Maddux	1995	16.5	7.4	10.1	11.6
24	Pedro J. Martinez	1999	16.3	6.5	10.0	11.5
25	Juan Marichal	1966	22.6	14.3	9.4	11.5

Of course his historic 2001 season (73 home runs, .515 OBP, .863 SLG) is there and two of the three ridiculous seasons that followed that one (OBPs of .582, .529, and .609; SLGs of .799, .749, .812).

But let me also draw your attention to his 1993 season when he was 28 years old and batted .336/.458/.677, leading the league in both home runs (46) and RBI (123) while also stealing 29 bases and scoring 129 runs.

Article last updated: November 21, 2019

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series

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