Billy Wagner

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Billy Wagner

2021 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Billy Wagner

Five facts about Billy Wagner:

Billy Wagner was named to seven All-Star teams in his career. He received Cy Young votes twice and MVP votes twice and was named the NL Rolaids Relief Man of the Year in 1999.

Billy Wagner had 30 or more saves in a season nine times. His 422 career saves are the sixth-most in major-league history.

Wagner had a full-season ERA under 2.00 five times (including his 15.2 IP 2009 season). Wagner is one of only four pitchers in major-league history to have at least four seasons with 30 or more saves and an ERA below 2.00.

Wagner's lowest full-season ERA in a season in which he pitched at least 30 innings (which he did 13 times) was 2.85.

Among pitchers with at least 750 innings pitched in their career, Wagner ranks first in major-league history in strikeouts per nine innings (11.9). Among pitchers with at least 750 innings pitched, Wagner ranks second in ERA (2.31) and first in WHIP (0.998) since 1920.

The first two tables below present Billy Wagner's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1995	HOU	23	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
1996	HOU	24	37	4.2	3.1	1.7	1.0
1997	HOU	25	62	6.0	5.0	1.9	0.8
1998	HOU	26	58	5.9	4.8	2.0	1.0
1999	HOU	27	66	7.3	2.7	5.3	4.4
2000	HOU	28	28	2.5	4.2	-1.1	-1.7
2001	HOU	29	64	6.8	3.9	3.7	2.7
2002	HOU	30	70	5.9	3.4	3.2	2.3
2003	HOU	31	78	7.6	4.4	4.1	2.9
2004	PHI	32	45	3.6	1.4	2.6	2.1
2005	PHI	33	75	6.7	3.6	3.9	2.9
2006	NYN	34	70	7.3	4.0	4.1	3.0
2007	NYN	35	66	5.9	3.3	3.3	2.4
2008	NYN	36	45	3.5	2.9	1.1	0.5
+– 2009		37	17	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.2
	BOS		15	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1
	NYN		2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
2010	ATL	38	71	5.5	3.4	2.8	2.0
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			853	79.4	50.7	38.9	26.5
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			14	0.7	1.3	-0.4	-0.6
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			867	80.1	52.0	38.5	25.9

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1995	HOU	23	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
1996	HOU	24	37	3.8	3.4	1.1	0.4
1997	HOU	25	62	6.1	4.9	2.1	1.0
1998	HOU	26	58	5.9	4.7	2.1	1.1
1999	HOU	27	66	6.5	3.5	3.9	2.9
2000	HOU	28	28	3.0	3.7	-0.1	-0.8
2001	HOU	29	64	6.1	4.7	2.4	1.3
2002	HOU	30	70	5.6	3.7	2.7	1.8
2003	HOU	31	78	7.4	4.6	3.7	2.6
2004	PHI	32	45	3.1	1.9	1.6	1.2
2005	PHI	33	75	6.3	4.0	3.1	2.1
2006	NYN	34	70	6.4	4.9	2.4	1.3
2007	NYN	35	66	5.0	4.2	1.6	0.7
2008	NYN	36	45	3.9	2.5	1.9	1.2
+– 2009		37	17	0.9	0.6	0.4	0.2
	BOS		15	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.2
	NYN		2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
2010	ATL	38	71	5.4	3.5	2.6	1.8
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			853	75.3	54.8	31.2	18.9
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			14	0.8	1.2	-0.3	-0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			867	76.1	56.0	30.9	18.4

This is Billy Wagner's sixth year on the Hall-of-Fame ballot. I have written articles about the Hall-of-Fame candidates every year in which Billy Wagner has been on the BBWAA ballot. Here is what I wrote about him last year.

Vote Prediction

In Wagner's first three years on the Hall-of-Fame ballot, he received 10.5%, 10.2%, and 11.1% of the vote. In 2019, he finally gained some traction, getting 16.7% of the vote. And then last year he saw his support nearly double to 31.7% of the vote.

Suddenly, in two years, Wagner went from a guy just taking up space at the bottom of the ballot for ten years to a guy who might actually have a shot at election. If I had to guess, I think I'd still guess that he will not be elected by the BBWAA - he only has five more years on the ballot (counting this year) and he isn't even halfway to the 75% election threshold. But I'm a lot less confident about that than I would have been two years ago. I think this year could give us a much clearer picture. Was last year just a matter of a lot of voters suddenly finding room on their ballot for a guy they had wanted to support all along? Or are voters changing their mind about Wagner? I think the latter is needed for him to be elected. And a big surge this year would probably suggest that's actually the case. If Wagner gets to 40% this year, I think he gets elected eventually (probably in his 9th or 10th year on the ballot). If he ends up below 35%, I think he stalls out short of election.

So, where do I think he'll actually end up? Let's go right between those two - 37.5% - with a clear path to eventual election (37.5% is exactly half of 75%) but still not a sure bet to get there.

Player Won-Lost Records and Billy Wagner

The Hall-of-Famer who I most frequently see referenced in discussing Billy Wagner's Hall-of-Fame case is Trevor Hoffman. This makes sense as Hoffman is the most recent relief pitcher to be elected to the Hall of Fame by a non-unanimous vote. Hoffman and Wagner have somewhat similar careers and it's not terribly difficult to make a case that Wagner actually had a better career than Hoffman.

Hoffman appeared in 1,035 games in his career, pitching 1,089.1 innings with a 1.058 WHIP, a 2.87 ERA, and 1,133 strikeouts (a K/9 of 9.4).

Wagner appeared in 853 games in his career, pitching 903.0 innings with a 0.998 WHIP, a 2.31 ERA, and 1,196 strikeouts (a K/9 of 11.9).

Hoffman pitched 186.1 more innings but Wagner had 63 more strikeouts and an ERA more than a half-run lower.

The next table compares Hoffman and Wagner as measured by context-neutral eWins.

Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
	Billy Wagner					Trevor Hoffman
23	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
24	37	3.8	3.4	0.4	1.1
25	62	6.1	4.9	1.0	2.1	67	5.2	5.2	0.1	1.0
26	58	5.9	4.7	1.1	2.1	47	4.4	3.2	1.2	1.9
27	66	6.5	3.5	2.9	3.9	55	4.3	4.2	-0.1	0.7
28	28	3.0	3.7	-0.8	-0.1	70	8.5	5.8	2.7	4.1
29	64	6.1	4.7	1.3	2.4	70	6.1	4.6	1.3	2.3
30	70	5.6	3.7	1.8	2.7	66	6.1	3.7	2.3	3.3
31	78	7.4	4.6	2.6	3.7	63	6.6	4.0	2.4	3.4
32	45	3.1	1.9	1.2	1.6	70	7.1	5.3	1.6	2.8
33	75	6.3	4.0	2.1	3.1	62	5.3	5.3	-0.2	0.8
34	70	6.4	4.9	1.3	2.4	61	4.8	4.2	0.7	1.6
35	66	5.0	4.2	0.7	1.6	9	0.1	0.1	-0.0	0.0
36	45	3.9	2.5	1.2	1.9	55	5.2	3.5	1.5	2.3
37	17	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.4	60	5.7	4.3	1.2	2.2
38	71	5.4	3.5	1.8	2.6	65	5.7	4.5	1.1	2.1
39						61	5.8	4.1	1.6	2.5
40						48	3.6	3.6	-0.1	0.6
41						55	4.3	2.9	1.4	2.1
42						50	2.5	3.1	-0.6	-0.0
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	853	75.3	54.8	18.9	31.2	1,034	91.2	71.6	18.2	33.6

Wagner has fewer wins but more wins over positional average (eWOPA).

While it's certainly true that Wagner was more dominant than Hoffman in terms of ERA and strikeouts - and, certainly, those things matter for a pitcher - I've never been terribly persuaded by the argument because they largely miss the reason why Trevor Hoffman is in the Hall of Fame. Trevor Hoffman is in the Hall of Fame because he had 601 career saves and at one time held the career record for saves. Billy Wagner's was no slouch in the saves department but his 422 career saves are only the 6th-most in major-league history.

Some of that is opportunity. As noted above, Hoffman appeared in 182 more games than Wagner in his career. So, of course he had more saves. But still - 179 more saves in 182 more games is a pretty impressive ratio of saves to games. In fact, Hoffman had 179 more saves than Wagner and only 7 more blown saves. Hoffman got a save (or hold) in 88.9% of his career save situations. Wagner only got a save (or a hold) in 86.3% of his career save situations. That's not really what you'd expect looking at their ERA, WHIP, and K numbers, but those are the real numbers.

The next table, then, shifts the focus from eWins - i.e., expected wins - to pWins - which tie to actual team wins.

Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Billy Wagner					Trevor Hoffman
23	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
24	37	4.2	3.1	1.0	1.7
25	62	6.0	5.0	0.8	1.9	67	5.4	5.0	0.3	1.2
26	58	5.9	4.8	1.0	2.0	47	4.6	2.9	1.7	2.4
27	66	7.3	2.7	4.4	5.3	55	4.8	3.8	0.9	1.7
28	28	2.5	4.2	-1.7	-1.1	70	9.7	4.7	4.9	6.2
29	64	6.8	3.9	2.7	3.7	70	6.6	4.1	2.3	3.3
30	70	5.9	3.4	2.3	3.2	66	7.3	2.4	4.7	5.6
31	78	7.6	4.4	2.9	4.1	63	6.9	3.7	3.1	4.1
32	45	3.6	1.4	2.1	2.6	70	7.7	4.8	2.7	3.8
33	75	6.7	3.6	2.9	3.9	62	6.1	4.5	1.4	2.4
34	70	7.3	4.0	3.0	4.1	61	5.2	3.8	1.3	2.2
35	66	5.9	3.3	2.4	3.3	9	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1
36	45	3.5	2.9	0.5	1.1	55	5.6	3.2	2.2	3.0
37	17	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.3	60	6.4	3.6	2.6	3.6
38	71	5.5	3.4	2.0	2.8	65	6.8	3.4	3.2	4.1
39						61	6.1	3.7	2.2	3.1
40						48	4.1	3.2	0.8	1.5
41						55	4.9	2.3	2.5	3.1
42						50	2.0	3.6	-1.7	-1.2
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	853	79.4	50.7	26.5	38.9	1,034	100.2	62.7	35.0	50.3
CAREER RECORDS (common rows)	815	75.2	47.6	25.5	37.2	820	83.1	49.8	31.2	43.7

When the focus turns to actual team wins, Hoffman not only beats Wagner in career pWins but also in pWins over positional average (pWOPA).

So, did Billy Wagner have a better career than Trevor Hoffman? I don't think there's necessarily one right answer - certainly not if you use Player won-lost records to try to answer the question (as, of course, you should).

So, does Billy Wagner belong in the Hall of Fame? I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader.

Article last updated: December 9, 2020

2021 Hall of Fame Ballot Series

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