Jack Morris stayed on the BBWAA Hall-of-Fame ballot for fifteen years and, at his peak, two-thirds of Hall-of-Fame voters thought that Jack Morris belonged there. Setting aside Game 7 of the 1991 World Series (not to suggest that shouldn't count toward his case), the chief argument in support of Jack Morris's Hall-of-Fame candidacy was that he had the most pitcher wins in the 1980s.

Pitcher wins have their flaws, but this sets up two questions that I think are worth exploring:

1. Does being the best pitcher of a decade merit induction into the Hall of Fame?

2. Who was the best pitcher of the 1980s?

In my opinion, the answer to question 1. is yes, being the best pitcher in baseball over a ten-year period is enough to merit induction into the Hall of Fame. This article attempts to answer question 2 using Player won-lost records.

Best Pitchers based on pWins

Let's start with the closest parallel to traditional pitcher wins. The next table shows the top 20 pitchers in pWins during the 1980s.

	Most pWins during the 1980s: Pitchers
Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
Jack Morris	147.3	131.7	7.8	21.0
Dave Stieb	138.6	117.2	10.7	22.9
Fernando Valenzuela	138.6	128.1	10.0	21.4
Nolan Ryan	136.8	127.8	8.3	19.7
Bob Welch	132.1	116.8	10.9	21.8
Charlie Hough	122.7	118.4	2.2	13.8
Jim Clancy	121.4	119.2	1.4	12.6
Bert Blyleven	121.4	110.4	5.8	16.8
Mike Scott	115.4	109.7	6.5	16.4
Rick Sutcliffe	114.4	105.9	7.1	16.9

Jack Morris led all major-league pitchers in pWins during the 1980s. He also led all major-league pitchers in pLosses in the decade.

The next table, then, moves away from a zero baseline and looks at pWins over replacement level.

	Most pWins over Replacement Level during the 1980s: Pitchers
Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
Dave Stieb	138.6	117.2	10.7	22.9
Bob Welch	132.1	116.8	10.9	21.8
Dwight Gooden	89.7	65.7	15.0	21.7
Fernando Valenzuela	138.6	128.1	10.0	21.4
Jack Morris	147.3	131.7	7.8	21.0
Dan Quisenberry	68.8	41.2	13.8	20.7
Nolan Ryan	136.8	127.8	8.3	19.7
Roger Clemens	81.4	56.6	12.4	19.1
Dave Righetti	81.2	59.5	10.8	18.8
Orel Hershiser	92.1	76.8	10.8	18.2

Jack Morris falls to third (which is still pretty damn impressive - Jack Morris was a very good pitcher for a good long time), passed by Dave Stieb and Fernando Valenzuela.

Shifting to pWORL also gives us our first (and, as it will turn out, our only) relief pitcher, Dan Quisenberry. I wrote an article about him last fall when he appeared on the Veterans' Committee Hall-of-Fame ballot. Comparing against replacement level is a good way to measure total value, recognizing that being below-average, but not too bad, has positive value. But does being a little below average add to a player's candidacy for determining the "best pitcher of the 1980s"? Maybe not.

So, the next table looks at the best pitchers of the 1980s as measured by pWins over positional average.

	Most pWins over Positional Average during the 1980s: Pitchers
Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
Dwight Gooden	89.7	65.7	15.0	21.7
Dan Quisenberry	68.8	41.2	13.8	20.7
Roger Clemens	81.4	56.6	12.4	19.1
Bob Welch	132.1	116.8	10.9	21.8
Rich Gossage	63.5	42.4	10.9	17.4
Dave Righetti	81.2	59.5	10.8	18.8
Orel Hershiser	92.1	76.8	10.8	18.2
Dave Stieb	138.6	117.2	10.7	22.9
Bret Saberhagen	80.3	59.7	10.3	17.2
Teddy Higuera	70.3	50.3	10.0	16.0

Switching to average, the top two starting pitchers of the 1980s did not make their major-league debuts until the fifth year of the decade, 1984: Dwight Gooden and Roger Clemens. Both Gooden and Clemens were actually still in high school when the 1980s began. But when they got to the major leagues in 1984, they both hit the ground running and made up for lost time: Gooden with an absolutely legendary 1985 season and Clemens with three straight seasons as the best pitcher in the American League from 1986 through 1988 (see below). I have previously written about Dwight Gooden, suggesting that I think he actually has a reasonable case for the Hall of Fame. I have also written about Roger Clemens in several previous articles.

Best Pitchers based on eWins

The previous tables all evaluated pitchers based on pWins, which are tied to team wins and are therefore highly context-dependent. Pitchers have some control over how well they perform in high-context situations, but much of the context underlying pWins are outside of a player's personal control.

Some people might, therefore, prefer to evaluate the "best pitcher of the 1980s" in a context-neutral framework. The next three tables, then, parallel the previous three, but are based on eWins instead of pWins.

	Most eWins during the 1980s: Pitchers
Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Jack Morris	141.7	137.3	2.2	15.5
Dave Stieb	138.4	117.5	10.4	22.6
Fernando Valenzuela	136.7	130.0	8.1	19.5
Nolan Ryan	133.8	130.8	5.3	16.7
Bob Welch	127.3	121.7	6.1	16.9
Bert Blyleven	120.9	110.9	5.3	16.3
Charlie Hough	120.7	120.3	0.2	11.9
Jim Clancy	120.2	120.4	0.2	11.5
Mike Scott	114.1	110.9	5.3	15.2
Rick Rhoden	113.7	109.8	5.3	15.0

The names here are mostly familiar from earlier tables.

	Most eWins over Replacement Level during the 1980s: Pitchers
Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Dave Stieb	138.4	117.5	10.4	22.6
Fernando Valenzuela	136.7	130.0	8.1	19.5
Roger Clemens	81.2	56.8	12.2	18.8
Orel Hershiser	91.4	77.5	10.1	17.5
Bob Welch	127.3	121.7	6.1	16.9
Bret Saberhagen	79.9	60.1	9.9	16.8
Nolan Ryan	133.8	130.8	5.3	16.7
Dwight Gooden	84.4	71.0	9.8	16.4
Bert Blyleven	120.9	110.9	5.3	16.3
Jack Morris	141.7	137.3	2.2	15.5

	Most eWins over Positional Average during the 1980s: Pitchers
Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Roger Clemens	81.2	56.8	12.2	18.8
Dave Stieb	138.4	117.5	10.4	22.6
Orel Hershiser	91.4	77.5	10.1	17.5
Bret Saberhagen	79.9	60.1	9.9	16.8
Dwight Gooden	84.4	71.0	9.8	16.4
Fernando Valenzuela	136.7	130.0	8.1	19.5
Dan Quisenberry	62.9	47.1	7.9	14.8
Teddy Higuera	67.7	52.9	7.4	13.3
Dave Righetti	76.8	63.9	6.4	14.3
Mark Gubicza	77.3	64.5	6.4	13.3

Controlling for context knocks Dwight Gooden down a bit, while making Orel Hershiser look quite a bit better.

Best Pitchers based purely on Pitching

The preceding tables have looked at total player won-lost records. One could, perhaps, argue instead that the best "pitcher" of the 1980s should be determined based purely on pitching. So, the next two tables look only at pitching player wins.

	Most Pitching Wins during the 1980s: Pitchers
Player	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Jack Morris	127.5	124.0	3.5
Dave Stieb	122.0	108.1	13.9
Charlie Hough	115.2	115.6	-0.5
Nolan Ryan	112.8	102.6	10.3
Fernando Valenzuela	112.5	104.0	8.4
Bert Blyleven	110.6	102.1	8.5
Bob Welch	110.1	101.8	8.3
Jim Clancy	106.4	105.4	1.0
Frank Tanana	105.1	104.8	0.2
Mike Witt	104.1	99.2	4.9

Once again, if you're looking at a pure counting measure, Jack Morris looks pretty damn good.

	Most Net Pitching Wins during the 1980s: Pitchers
Player	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
Roger Clemens	71.3	53.9	17.4
Bret Saberhagen	71.5	56.6	14.9
Dave Stieb	122.0	108.1	13.9
Orel Hershiser	75.0	61.2	13.8
Dwight Gooden	66.7	54.7	12.0
Dan Quisenberry	52.0	40.5	11.5
Teddy Higuera	58.8	48.3	10.4
Nolan Ryan	112.8	102.6	10.3
Mark Gubicza	70.4	60.8	9.6
Dennis Eckersley	84.2	75.0	9.3

Finally, the best pitchers of the 1980s, measured only by net (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) pitching wins are Roger Clemens, Orel Hershiser, Bret Saberhagen, Dwight Gooden, Dave Stieb, and Dan Quisenberry.

That's probably a pretty solid list of players about whom one can have a conversation about whether they were the best pitcher of the 1980s. What's striking about this list is that four of the six pitchers did not throw a single major-league pitch over the first one-third of the decade.

Best Pitchers by Season

So far, we've only looked at totals for the entire decade. What about season by season? The next table shows the top pitchers of the 1980s by league-season, measured by total player pWins over replacement level.

	Top Pitchers by League-Season in the 1980s, pWORL
		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1980	AL	Mike Norris	17.6	11.0	3.3	4.5	NL	Steve Carlton	19.9	13.2	3.9	5.2
1981	AL	Steve McCatty	12.3	8.1	2.1	3.1	NL	Fernando Valenzuela	15.3	10.5	2.8	4.0
1982	AL	Jim Palmer	14.8	9.9	2.5	3.6	NL	Steve Carlton	21.6	15.3	3.8	5.3
1983	AL	La Marr Hoyt	17.0	11.3	2.9	4.2	NL	John Denny	15.9	10.6	3.2	4.3
1984	AL	Willie Hernandez	9.9	3.1	3.4	4.2	NL	Dwight Gooden	16.4	11.6	3.0	4.0
1985	AL	Bret Saberhagen	15.9	8.5	3.7	5.0	NL	Dwight Gooden	21.3	11.0	5.9	7.3
1986	AL	Roger Clemens	17.3	9.9	3.7	5.0	NL	Mike Scott	19.0	12.6	3.8	5.1
1987	AL	Roger Clemens	18.2	11.7	3.3	4.8	NL	Tim Burke	7.6	2.3	2.7	3.3
1988	AL	Roger Clemens	18.0	11.9	3.1	4.5	NL	Orel Hershiser	20.3	13.4	4.0	5.5
1989	AL	Bret Saberhagen	16.7	9.3	3.7	4.9	NL	Mark W. Davis	10.7	5.2	2.8	3.8

Roger Clemens won the most "pWin Cy Young awards" - 3. Other repeat winners would have been Steve Carlton, Dwight Gooden, and Bret Saberhagen.

Conclusion

So, who was the best pitcher of the 1980s? I'm going to cheat. The best pitcher for the first 40% of the 1980s (1980 - 1983) was Philadelphia Phillies Hall-of-Famer Steve Carlton. The best pitcher for the middle 20% of the 1980s (1984 - 1985) was New York Mets wunderkind Dwight Gooden. The best pitcher for the last 40% of the 1980s (1986 - 1989) was Boston Red Sox ace Roger Clemens. Call the combination Steve "Doc" Clemens. And, just for fun, here is what Steve "Doc" Clemens career record looked like in the 1980s.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
1980	38	19.9	13.2	0.602	3.9	5.2	18.5	14.5	0.561	2.6	3.8
1981	24	11.5	8.3	0.581	2.0	2.8	11.0	8.8	0.555	1.5	2.3
1982	38	21.6	15.3	0.585	3.8	5.3	19.9	17.1	0.538	2.1	3.6
1983	37	17.7	16.8	0.513	1.1	2.5	18.0	16.5	0.522	1.4	2.8
1984	31	16.4	11.6	0.587	3.0	4.0	15.8	12.3	0.562	2.3	3.3
1985	35	21.3	11.0	0.659	5.9	7.3	19.7	12.5	0.611	4.3	5.8
1986	33	17.3	9.9	0.637	3.7	5.0	16.4	10.8	0.604	2.8	4.1
1987	36	18.2	11.7	0.609	3.3	4.8	18.0	12.0	0.599	3.0	4.5
1988	35	18.0	11.9	0.603	3.1	4.5	18.3	11.5	0.614	3.4	4.8
1989	35	14.8	12.7	0.537	1.0	2.3	15.3	12.2	0.557	1.6	2.9
--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------
1990	342	176.8	122.4	0.591	30.6	43.8	170.9	128.2	0.571	24.8	38.0

That guy would have been at the top of all of the preceding tables.



All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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