Dwight Evans

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Dwight Evans

2020 Modern Era Hall of Fame Ballot: Dwight Evans

The Baseball Hall of Fame recently announced their 2020 Modern Era ballot. One player on the ballot is former Boston Red Sox right fielder, Dwight Evans.

Five highlights of Dwight Evans's career:

In Dwight Evans's first major-league plate appearance, he batted out of turn. Evans and Cecil Cooper both entered the game as pinch runners in the sixth inning, stayed in the game defensively, and came up to bat in the eighth inning. Cooper was supposed to bat in front of Evans, but Evans batted first. He popped out to the shortstop and Cooper grounded out, so the Cleveland Indians did not bother to object to Evans batting out of turn.

Dwight Evans was named to three All-Star teams. He received MVP votes five times. He won eight Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers.

Evans has the seventh-most games played in right field since 1908 (2,092). He is third in career putouts (4,247), 14th in assists (155), and eighth in double plays (42) by a right fielder (all since 1908).

Evans hit the most home runs in the American League in the 1980s, 256.

Evans played in two World Series, 1975 and 1986. In World Series play, Evans batted .300/.397/.580 with 3 home runs and 14 RBI in 14 World Series games.

The first two tables below present Dwight Evans's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1972	BOS	20	18	2.3	2.0	0.4	0.2
1973	BOS	21	119	10.1	8.9	1.8	0.8
1974	BOS	22	133	17.7	13.7	4.9	3.4
1975	BOS	23	126	15.1	13.1	2.7	1.4
1976	BOS	24	146	19.0	15.3	4.7	3.0
1977	BOS	25	73	7.8	6.9	1.4	0.6
1978	BOS	26	147	17.9	14.8	3.9	2.3
1979	BOS	27	152	17.2	15.6	2.3	0.8
1980	BOS	28	147	16.2	14.8	2.2	0.7
1981	BOS	29	108	19.0	12.2	7.8	6.3
1982	BOS	30	162	24.2	19.0	6.4	4.4
1983	BOS	31	126	15.0	13.2	2.7	1.3
1984	BOS	32	162	25.9	19.6	7.4	5.2
1985	BOS	33	159	23.2	19.0	5.4	3.4
1986	BOS	34	152	21.2	15.7	6.5	4.8
1987	BOS	35	154	19.2	15.1	4.7	3.0
1988	BOS	36	149	20.2	17.9	3.1	1.3
1989	BOS	37	146	17.2	15.4	3.1	1.3
1990	BOS	38	122	13.0	10.6	3.6	2.0
1991	BAL	39	101	8.7	8.9	0.4	-0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,602	330.1	271.9	75.3	45.6
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			32	4.0	3.1	1.0	0.7
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,634	334.0	275.0	76.4	46.3

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1972	BOS	20	18	2.4	1.9	0.6	0.4
1973	BOS	21	119	10.0	9.0	1.5	0.5
1974	BOS	22	133	16.7	14.7	2.9	1.3
1975	BOS	23	126	15.0	13.2	2.5	1.1
1976	BOS	24	146	18.6	15.7	3.9	2.2
1977	BOS	25	73	8.1	6.6	2.0	1.2
1978	BOS	26	147	17.7	15.0	3.6	2.0
1979	BOS	27	152	16.9	15.9	1.7	0.1
1980	BOS	28	147	16.2	14.8	2.3	0.8
1981	BOS	29	108	18.5	12.7	6.7	5.2
1982	BOS	30	162	24.2	19.1	6.2	4.2
1983	BOS	31	126	14.5	13.7	1.7	0.4
1984	BOS	32	162	24.9	20.7	5.3	3.2
1985	BOS	33	159	23.0	19.2	5.2	3.1
1986	BOS	34	152	20.0	16.9	4.1	2.4
1987	BOS	35	154	19.4	14.9	5.2	3.6
1988	BOS	36	149	20.3	17.8	3.4	1.5
1989	BOS	37	146	17.8	14.8	4.4	2.6
1990	BOS	38	122	12.1	11.6	1.7	0.2
1991	BAL	39	101	9.1	8.6	1.2	0.4
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,602	325.3	276.7	66.1	36.3
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			32	3.7	3.3	0.6	0.3
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,634	329.1	280.0	66.7	36.6

The Modern Era Committee's focus is players whose careers were centered between 1970 and 1987. Obviously, there will be overlap between some time periods. So, for example, Dwight Evans's career extended four years past 1987. Nevertheless, Dwight Evans's career lines up pretty well with the time period covered by the Modern Era Committee. And a look at the best players over this time period, 1970 - 1987, makes the Hall-of-Fame case for Dwight Evans quite well.

The next table shows the top 10 players in pWins over positional average and replacement level over the seasons from 1970 - 1987.


		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players, 1970 - 1987						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players, 1970 - 1987
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Joe L. Morgan	295.6	222.8	77.9	103.2	1	Joe L. Morgan	295.6	222.8	77.9	103.2
2	Mike Schmidt	321.3	238.7	73.3	100.3	2	Mike Schmidt	321.3	238.7	73.3	100.3
3	Jim Palmer	208.1	157.1	55.6	78.6	3	Reggie Jackson	321.0	257.2	51.2	81.1
4	Reggie Jackson	321.0	257.2	51.2	81.1	4	Jim Palmer	208.1	157.1	55.6	78.6
5	Tom Seaver	252.8	216.3	50.0	77.8	5	Tom Seaver	252.8	216.3	50.0	77.8
6	Johnny Bench	214.7	169.4	45.5	64.3	6	Steve Carlton	287.5	260.1	44.4	76.4
7	Steve Carlton	287.5	260.1	44.4	76.4	7	Bert Blyleven	250.0	219.5	37.8	67.3
8	George Brett	245.5	198.4	44.4	65.9	8	George Brett	245.5	198.4	44.4	65.9
9	Bobby Grich	252.2	218.9	41.9	64.7	9	Don Sutton	256.7	233.8	36.1	65.6
10	Dwight Evans	270.9	219.1	41.4	65.2	10	Dwight Evans	270.9	219.1	41.4	65.2

Dwight Evans is one of only two players to appear in the above tables who is not already in the Hall of Fame.

Boston Red Sox Outfielders of the 1970s

The 1975 Boston Red Sox won 95 regular-season games and the American League pennant. Their top three outfielders, based on games played in the outfield, were 22, 23, and 23 years old. Three years later, the 1978 Boston Red Sox won 99 games and missed the playoffs by one game with the same three primary outfielders (now 25, 26, and 26 years old, of course).

Jim Rice was named to eight All-Star teams, won the AL MVP award in 1978, and was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2009.
Fred Lynn was named to nine All-Star teams, was named Rookie of the Year and AL MVP in 1975, led the American League in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage in 1979, and was named ALCS MVP in 1982 despite playing for the losing team.

Dwight Evans had a better career than either of them. Rice barely beat Evans in career hits, 2,452 to 2,446 (Lynn had 1,960). But Evans walked more than twice as often as Rice (Evans had 1,391 career walks; Lynn had 857, Rice had 670). And Evans led the three in home runs with 385 (Rice had 382, Lynn had 306). He led in runs scored with 1,470 (Rice had 1,249, Lynn had 1,063). Rice had a few more RBI (1,451 to 1,384; Lynn had 1,111), but just a crude R+RBI puts Evans ahead of Rice, 2,854 to 2,700 (Lynn had 2,174). Moving from offense to defense, Evans led the trio in Gold Gloves with eight (Lynn won four, Rice won zero).

The next table compares Rice, Lynn, and Evans in career totals as measured by Player won-lost records.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Jim Rice	2,089	284.8	246.9	27.3	54.4	278.6	253.1	16.1	43.2
Fred Lynn	1,967	245.7	217.4	23.5	46.0	247.3	215.8	26.9	49.4
Dwight Evans	2,602	330.1	271.9	45.6	75.3	325.3	276.7	36.3	66.1

Of course, Lynn and Rice won MVP awards - and generally deserved their awards - and Evans never won one, although Player won-lost records see Evans as the best player in the 1981 American League. The next table compares the three players' best seasons (Lynn's best season was not his MVP season). Evans played in every Red Sox game in 1981; they missed 54 games because of a players' strike. The fourth row of the table expands Evans's 1981 numbers to a 162-game season.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Jim Rice, 1978	163	26.5	16.9	8.8	11.1	25.0	18.4	5.8	8.0
Fred Lynn, 1979	147	22.3	14.2	7.8	9.6	21.4	15.1	5.8	7.6
Dwight Evans, 1981	108	19.0	12.2	6.3	7.8	18.5	12.7	5.2	6.7
*Dwight Evans, 1981 (adj.)*	*162*	*28.5*	*18.3*	*9.4*	*11.7*	*27.7*	*19.1*	*7.8*	*10.1*

Finally, the next table compares the three players' (continuous) primes. I limited Evans's prime to six seasons to match Rice and Lynn: Evans added an excellent 1987 to the end of the "prime" shown here.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Jim Rice, 1977 - 1982	858	121.0	98.7	18.1	29.4	118.9	100.8	13.7	25.0
Fred Lynn, 1975 - 1980	813	112.3	89.3	21.1	30.9	110.7	90.9	18.0	27.8
Dwight Evans, 1981 - 1986	869	128.5	98.7	25.3	36.2	125.1	102.2	18.4	29.3

Dwight Evans's skills were subtle. He never hit more than 34 home runs but he hit 20 or more home runs 11 times. He never had more than 186 hits in a season, but he walked 85 or more times seven times. He scored 80 or more runs eight times; he drove in 97 or more runs six times. He led AL right fielders in putouts four times, in assists three times. And when you add it all up, it turns out that he was better than Jim Rice, he was better than Fred Lynn, and he has a very strong Hall-of-Fame case.

2020 Modern Era Hall of Fame Ballot

Article last updated: November 5, 2019

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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