Gil Hodges

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Gil Hodges

2015 Veterans' Committee HOF Ballot: Gil Hodges

The Baseball Hall of Fame recently announced their 2015 Veterans' ballot. One player on the ballot is Gil Hodges. This article is a modified version of an article I wrote previously on Gil Hodges in conjunction with my article about the 1950's.

The first table below presents Gil Hodges's career as measured by Player won-lost records.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
Gil Hodges Basic Player Won-Lost Records
												Value Decomposition
1943	BRO	19	1	0.1	0.3	0.299	-0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.3	0.400	-0.0	-0.0
1947	BRO	23	28	1.5	1.6	0.485	-0.0	0.1	1.2	1.8	0.403	-0.3	-0.1
1948	BRO	24	134	11.3	11.6	0.492	-0.1	0.8	11.4	11.5	0.497	-0.0	0.9
1949	BRO	25	156	19.6	14.8	0.570	2.2	3.6	18.7	15.8	0.542	1.2	2.6
1950	BRO	26	153	17.8	13.2	0.574	1.5	2.7	17.0	14.1	0.545	0.6	1.8
1951	BRO	27	158	19.9	14.1	0.585	2.5	3.8	19.3	14.7	0.567	1.9	3.2
1952	BRO	28	153	18.1	12.0	0.602	2.3	3.5	18.1	12.1	0.599	2.2	3.4
1953	BRO	29	141	18.9	11.7	0.618	3.2	4.5	17.8	12.8	0.582	2.1	3.4
1954	BRO	30	154	21.2	14.3	0.597	2.8	4.3	20.5	15.0	0.578	2.2	3.6
1955	BRO	31	150	18.3	13.9	0.569	1.5	2.9	17.6	14.6	0.547	0.9	2.2
1956	BRO	32	153	18.2	14.1	0.564	1.3	2.6	17.4	14.9	0.539	0.5	1.8
1957	BRO	33	150	18.9	14.4	0.568	1.5	2.9	18.8	14.5	0.564	1.4	2.8
1958	LAN	34	141	11.1	12.1	0.478	-1.0	-0.1	12.1	11.1	0.522	0.1	1.0
1959	LAN	35	123	14.0	9.8	0.588	1.6	2.6	13.5	10.4	0.564	1.0	2.0
1960	LAN	36	102	6.0	5.6	0.516	-0.1	0.4	5.9	5.7	0.509	-0.2	0.3
1961	LAN	37	109	6.1	5.2	0.541	0.1	0.6	5.4	5.8	0.482	-0.6	-0.0
1962	NYN	38	54	3.3	3.9	0.459	-0.5	-0.2	3.8	3.3	0.532	0.1	0.3
1963	NYN	39	11	0.6	0.6	0.496	-0.0	0.0	0.5	0.6	0.460	-0.1	-0.0
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,071	225.0	173.2	0.565	18.9	35.0	219.1	179.1	0.550	13.0	29.1
			------	------	------				------	------
PostSeason (career)			39	4.3	3.4	0.559		0.6	4.2	3.5	0.545		0.5
			------	------	------	------		------	------	------	------		------
COMBINED			2,110	229.3	176.6	0.565		35.6	223.4	182.6	0.550		29.6

Gil Hodges and the Hall of Fame

Gil Hodges's Hall-of-Fame case falls entirely within the 1950s. In particular, his case rests on three tables from my article about the 1950s which are reproduced below.

		eWins over Positional Average Top 25 Players, 1950 - 1959						eWins over Replacement Level Top 25 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Mickey Mantle	193.8	127.8	27.8	40.8	1	Mickey Mantle	193.8	127.8	27.8	40.8
2	Warren Spahn	187.0	157.3	20.4	35.1	2	Warren Spahn	187.0	157.3	20.4	35.1
3	Duke Snider	196.3	145.9	19.5	33.4	3	Duke Snider	196.3	145.9	19.5	33.4
4	Eddie Mathews	166.2	124.1	18.1	29.8	4	Robin Roberts	193.0	174.2	15.0	30.7
5	Willie Mays	169.1	124.1	17.5	29.2	5	Eddie Mathews	166.2	124.1	18.1	29.8
6	Ernie Banks	138.3	110.1	16.8	26.8	6	Stan Musial	195.1	151.3	15.6	29.5
7	Yogi Berra	160.4	129.8	16.7	28.4	7	Willie Mays	169.1	124.1	17.5	29.2
8	Ted Williams	149.1	105.4	16.4	26.8	8	Yogi Berra	160.4	129.8	16.7	28.4
9	Stan Musial	195.1	151.3	15.6	29.5	9	Ernie Banks	138.3	110.1	16.8	26.8
10	Robin Roberts	193.0	174.2	15.0	30.7	10	Ted Williams	149.1	105.4	16.4	26.8
11	Jackie Robinson	125.6	96.5	13.6	22.6	11	Early Wynn	174.5	160.8	12.1	26.4
12	Billy Pierce	157.7	141.1	12.9	25.7	12	Minnie Minoso	201.7	165.0	10.9	25.7
13	Gil Hodges	172.1	134.2	12.8	25.2	13	Billy Pierce	157.7	141.1	12.9	25.7
14	Larry Doby	171.8	136.9	12.7	25.2	14	Larry Doby	171.8	136.9	12.7	25.2
15	Early Wynn	174.5	160.8	12.1	26.4	15	Gil Hodges	172.1	134.2	12.8	25.2
16	Bob Rush	136.1	120.5	11.3	22.6	16	Bob Rush	136.1	120.5	11.3	22.6
17	Al Rosen	138.1	109.5	10.9	20.9	17	Jackie Robinson	125.6	96.5	13.6	22.6
18	Minnie Minoso	201.7	165.0	10.9	25.7	18	Nellie Fox	192.8	186.0	6.3	21.5
19	Roy Campanella	103.5	84.2	10.6	18.3	19	Pee Wee Reese	149.7	135.2	10.0	21.5
20	Hank Aaron	136.1	106.3	10.6	20.4	20	Al Rosen	138.1	109.5	10.9	20.9
21	Pee Wee Reese	149.7	135.2	10.0	21.5	21	Eddie Yost	176.2	153.6	7.6	20.9
22	E. Mike Garcia	126.5	114.6	9.3	20.1	22	Hank Aaron	136.1	106.3	10.6	20.4
23	Al Kaline	127.0	102.3	8.6	17.8	23	Jackie Jensen	181.9	157.6	6.4	20.1
24	Gil McDougald	149.1	133.7	8.5	19.9	24	E. Mike Garcia	126.5	114.6	9.3	20.1
25	Whitey Ford	99.3	88.5	8.3	16.4	25	Gil McDougald	149.1	133.7	8.5	19.9

		Best Batting of the 1950s
		eWins	eLosses	eWinPct	eWOPA
1	Mickey Mantle	130.1	80.7	0.617	22.8
2	Ted Williams	103.8	59.8	0.635	20.5
3	Duke Snider	144.0	100.7	0.588	19.3
4	Stan Musial	146.5	103.7	0.586	19.0
5	Eddie Mathews	120.8	82.3	0.595	17.3
6	Willie Mays	108.7	74.5	0.593	15.4
7	Gil Hodges	138.6	105.8	0.567	14.1
8	Larry Doby	113.8	83.2	0.578	13.5
9	Minnie Minoso	127.7	99.7	0.561	11.9
10	Hank Aaron	90.8	66.5	0.577	10.7

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense

		Best First Basemen of the 1950s
		eWins	eLosses	eWinPct	eWOPA
1	Gil Hodges	160.8	126.1	0.560	11.5
2	Stan Musial	85.7	67.2	0.561	5.9
3	Ted Kluszewski	128.1	106.9	0.545	5.8
4	Joe Adcock	78.2	66.0	0.542	3.3
5	Earl Torgeson	116.1	101.4	0.534	3.0
6	Bill Skowron	60.2	49.6	0.549	2.9
7	Ferris Fain	76.1	65.5	0.537	2.5
8	Mickey Vernon	123.2	109.0	0.531	2.5
9	Vic Wertz	50.2	41.9	0.545	2.1
10	Luke Easter	46.8	39.7	0.541	1.8

He was a very good, very durable player - which is good enough to put him in 8th place in eWins over replacement level for the 1950s. He was a very good hitter - the 5th-best in the major-leagues for the 1950s measured by eWins over positional average. And - probably the most commonly cited playing argument for his Hall-of-Fame case - he was the best first baseman in the major leagues for the 1950s (again, measured by eWins over positional average).

It's a case, but how strong is it?

Best First Baseman of the 1950s

As noted above, Gil Hodges was the best first baseman of the 1950s. Is being the best player at a position for a decade sufficient to get one into the Hall of Fame? For me, it's an argument that certainly carries some weight, but is absolutely not dispositive.

For example, go to the list of the best players of the 1950s in eWOPA and eWORL. One player who shows up ahead of Gil Hodges on both of those lists is Stan Musial. Stan Musial clearly had a better major-league career than Gil Hodges, both overall as well as in the 1950s, when, for example, Musial finished in the top 10 in MVP voting every season from 1950 - 1957 (extending back to the 1940s, he did so every year from 1948 - 1957), including three 2nd-place finishes. Stan Musial was the St. Louis Cardinals regular first baseman from 1955 - 1959 and also played there semi-regularly in 1950 and 1951. So why wasn't Stan Musial the best major-league first baseman in the 1950s?

By some measures - e.g., best overall record for players who played more at first base than anywhere else - he almost certainly was. He shows up behind Hodges in the above table because Musial spent two years as the Cardinals' regular left fielder in 1951 and 1953, one year as the Cardinals' regular right fielding in 1954, and even one year as the Cardinals' regular center fielder in 1952. And, in the above table, which looks only at what a player did at first base, all of those games don't count.

Also, sometimes it might just be the case that there weren't any truly great players at a specific position for some particular time period.

The next table looks at the top player in eWOPA at first base for every decade (the ones that start in a zero anyway - being the best first baseman from 1950 - 1959 isn't any more impressive than being the best first baseman from, say, 1967 - 1976 (Willie McCovey, incidentally, and that one isn't particularly close)).

		Best First Basemen by Decade
		eWins	eLosses	eWinPct	eWOPA
1950s	Gil Hodges	160.8	126.1	0.560	11.5
1960s	Willie McCovey	112.1	78.7	0.587	10.9
1970s	Willie Stargell	69.7	52.7	0.570	5.1
1980s	Eddie Murray	160.1	133.1	0.546	8.3
1990s	Mark McGwire	143.1	99.5	0.590	16.0
2000s	Albert Pujols	134.0	89.7	0.599	16.5

That's just a weird list. Okay, Hodges' eWOPA for the 1950s is better than the top first basemen of the 1960's, 1970's, and 1980's. But two of those players are Norm Cash and Andre Thornton I mean, seriously, Andre Thornton? I remember Andre Thornton when he played for the Cleveland Indians when I was a kid (Thornton was an Indian from 1977 - 1987). Thornton was the best power hitter on those teams, but those teams were mostly pretty terrible, and Andre Thornton was nobody's idea of a Hall-of-Fame candidate (he got 2 votes in his only year on the BBWAA ballot). I don't know what to do with that table in regards to Gil Hodges' Hall-of-Fame candidacy.

Players Most Similar in Value to Gil Hodges

The 10 players most similar in value to Gil Hodges are shown in the next table.

Player	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Batting	Baserunning	Fielding
		Most Similar Players to Luke Easter in Career Value
						Wins over Baseline
Gil Hodges	2071	225.0	173.2	18.9	35.0	14.3	-0.5	3.6
Joe Torre	2209	244.1	209.4	13.5	32.0	13.5	-0.8	3.0
John Olerud	2234	235.6	192.9	11.9	29.3	13.8	-0.6	3.5
Will Clark	1976	232.2	179.2	15.9	32.0	18.5	0.3	3.0
Jose Canseco	1886	224.4	186.5	14.0	33.5	16.1	0.2	1.9
David Justice	1609	200.3	160.3	14.9	30.8	13.4	-0.8	2.5
Larry Doby	1530	214.3	165.8	18.4	33.8	15.3	0.1	3.1
Brian Downing	2342	235.2	211.0	10.0	30.0	14.0	-0.0	2.3
Ellis Burks	2000	243.0	211.8	11.6	30.8	13.3	-0.6	2.0
Mark Teixeira	1862	213.8	177.4	11.1	25.9	14.2	-0.4	2.2
Darryl Strawberry	1583	217.7	164.6	20.2	35.3	16.1	0.4	2.9

Hodges's most-similar player list is an interesting mix of players. There's one Hall-of-Famer on the list (not counting Joe Torre, who's in the Hall of Fame as a manager): Johnny Bench, who is kind of an odd comp (although, oddly, Gil Hodges actually broke into the major leagues as a catcher), and Bench is kind of low down on the list (#8) anyway. But the list also includes two other players (in addition to Bench) who are in the Hall of Merit, including Hodges's top comps: Will Clark (Joe Torre is the third).

As with the best first basemen by decade list, it's not entirely clear whether this table helps for hurts Hodges's Hall-of-Fame case.

Conclusion

So, in conclusion does Gil Hodges deserve to be in the Hall of Fame? Based purely on his playing career, I would say probably not. But his case is not completely without merit. He probably has a stronger case, for example, than Jim Rice and Orlando Cepeda, to name two Hall-of-Famers. Still, I think you'd probably need a pretty big Hall-of-Fame to include Gil Hodges purely on his playing record.

Hodges does have one more line, though, for his Hall-of-Fame application: he managed the 1969 Miracle Mets. Overall, he has a pretty credible case. The Hall of Fame could do (and has done) worse.

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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