Ryan Rupe and Bryan Rekar
Game-by-Game Statistics versus Cumulative Year-End Stats: Ryan Rupe and Bryan Rekar
The 2001 Tampa Bay Devil Rays were a dreadful team which lost 100 games. As one example of their dreadfulness, the pitchers who were second and third on the team in games started, Ryan Rupe (26 GS) and Bryan Rekar (25 GS), earned exactly one Win Share apiece.
Looking at their year-end statistics, it is quite easy to understand how these two pitchers could have earned so few Win Shares. Rupe finished the season with a record of 5-12 with an ERA of 6.59 in 143-1/3 innings. Rekar was either nearly as bad or arguably worse depending on how you value a pitcherís Won-Lost record versus his ERA as a measure of his performance. Rekar posted a 3-13 record and an ERA of 5.89 in 140-2/3 innings.
As bad as those records are, what does it mean to earn 1 Win Share? That means that, essentially, in one game which Tampa Bay won, Rupe or Rekar was one-third responsible for the victory, and in every other game won by Tampa Bay, Rupe and Rekar contributed nothing to the win.
Ryan Rupe pitched in 10 games that Tampa Bay won. As noted above, he earned a pitching win in half of these games. Bill James gives out 30 Win Shares to the Devil Rays for these games. He gives Rupe 3% of these Win Shares.
Ryan Rupe was a bad pitcher for the 2001 Devil Rays. But that doesnít mean that every pitching performance by Rupe that season was bad. In fact, he had several games in which his performance was actually quite good.
On May 28th against Anaheim, he pitched 6-1/3 innings, allowing 1 run on 3 hits with no walks and 5 strikeouts. The Devil Rays lost that day, however, 3-1. On June 8th against the New York Mets, Rupe pitched 7 shutout innings, allowing four hits and one walk against 7 strikeouts. The Devil Rays won the game 7-5. He followed that performance with a 7-inning, 3-hit, 8-strikeout performance against the Phillies in a game which the Devil Rays won 6-3.
On July 21st against Texas, Rupe pitched 7 innings of 1-run, 8-strikeout ball in a 2-1 Tampa victory. On August 1st in Baltimore, he pitched 5-2/3 innings without allowing an earned run, although the Orioles scored 3 runs in the bottom of the ninth inning of that game to win it 6-5. Finally, on September 27th, Rupe pitched 6 innings, allowing one run on three hits with one walk and 7 strikeouts in a 5-1 win over Toronto.
The fact that Ryan Rupe pitched well in 6 games in which the Devil Rays went 4-2 is not to say that Ryan Rupe was a good pitcher. It is, however, to say that Ryan Rupe contributed far more than one-third of one win to the 2001 Devil Rays. In fact, I estimate that he contributed
7.7 wins to the 2001 Devil Rays.
He also had games in which he allowed 8 runs in 3-2/3 innings, 6 runs in 1 inning, 6 runs in two-thirds of an inning, 7 runs in 4 innings, 9 runs in 4-1/3 innings, and 11 runs in 5-2/3 innings.
Overall, Rupe put together a Player Won-Lost record of
7.7 wins against
11.0 losses for a
0.413 winning percentage, good for
-0.4 wins over replacement level. But he had his moments and contributed to a lot more than just one Devil Ray win.
Although Bryan Rekar had an ERA 0.70 runs lower than Ryan Rupe (5.89) he failed to have as many good outings as Rupe. In fact, the Devil Rays only won 6 games in which Rekar appeared. Neverthless, he did have some success.
He allowed only 2 runs in 7 innings on April 10th in Toronto, although the Devil Rays lost that game 3-2. He topped that on May 6th against Cleveland, pitching 7 innings of one-run, 5-hit ball. The Devil Rays bullpen, though, allowed nine runs in the last two innings (including 6 by Ryan Rupe in one inning of work) and Tampa lost 10-3.
Rekar finally pitched well in a Devil Rays win on May 27th, pitching 7 innings, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits with 2 walks and 6 strikeouts. He got his first win of the season on June 13th against Philadelphia, allowing 3 runs in 8 innings with 7 strikeouts in a 5-3 Devil Rays win. Finally, 3+ months later, Rekar finished off what had to that point been a dreadful 1-13 season with back-to-back wins over Toronto on September 21st and 28th, allowing a combined 5 runs in 12-2/3 innings.
Even in this handful of games, Rekar didnít pitch all that well. His combined ERA in the games listed above was 2.81, a good total, but hardly overwhelming, considering these were probably his best 6 games of the year. Nevertheless, Rekar clearly contributed more than one-third of a win to the Devil Rays in 2001.
By my calculation, Rekar earned
7.6 wins for his pitching in 2001. He also contributed
10.6 losses, a
0.418 winning percentage, and
-0.3 wins over replacement level.
I believe that calculating Player wins and losses on a game-by-game basis results in a much more accurate estimate of player contributions than attempting to estimate such things based on cumulative year-end statistics. And I think that Bryan Rekar's and Ryan Rupe's contributions to the 2001 Devil Rays, such as they were, are a good example of that.
All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.
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