Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
Home     List of Articles

St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, Jack Murphy Stadium, San Diego, CA
July 22, 2003

Introduction

Next in my series of random game stories we go to San Diego in the summer of 2003: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, July 22, 2003.

The Cardinals entered play in second place in the NL Central with a record of 51-48. The Padres, meanwhile, had the worst record in the National League entering play on July 22nd, with a record of 38-63.

The Cardinals starting pitcher was something of a surprise. Jeff Fassero, 40 years old and in his 13th major-league season, made his first start since 2000 (when Fassero pitched for the Boston Red Sox). Fassero ended the 2000 season with 13 consecutive relief appearances. He then added 82 appearances in 2001 and 73 in 2002, all in relief. And entering play on July 22nd, Fassero had made 45 appearances, all in relief, running his string of games played since his last start to 213 games. Fassero entered play on July 22nd with a record of 1-4 (plus 3 saves) with an ERA of 7.17.

Fassero's opponent was more than 18 years younger than him. Second-year starter Oliver Perez was only 21 years old (he would turn 22 in August) but he had been in the Padres' rotation since his debut just more than 13 months earlier. Perez entered play with a record of 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA.

The pitching matchup didn't exactly scream "pitchers' duel".

First Inning

The game opened well for the Cardinals as leadoff hitter Bo Hart singled up the middle. Orlando Palmeiro tried to bunt him to second base but Palmeiro popped his bunt up and it was caught by Padres' third baseman Lou Merloni. Albert Pujols flied out. But Scott Rolen lined a two-out single to right field. But the rally ended there as Edgar Renteria flew out to right field to end the inning.

Jeff Fassero's first start in three years started well with a strikeout of Ramon Vazquez. His first inning also ended well with a strikeout of Brian Buchanan. Unfortunately, three of the four batters between Vazquez and Buchanan singled - Gary Matthews, Jr., Ryan Klesko, and Rondell White - with Mathews scoring on White's single.

And so, the Padres led at the end of one inning by a score of 1-0.

Second Inning

The Cardinals threatened to get back in the game as Oliver Perez walked Eduardo Perez to open the top of the second inning. But two force plays with a strikeout sandwiched in between were all that the Cardinals could muster for the rest of the inning.

The Padres managed two singles in the bottom of the second, but they came with one and two outs, respectively, and Gary Matthews, Jr. ended the threat with a harmless pop-up to second base.

Third - Fourth Innings

The next two innings were largely uneventful as each team managed only a single baserunner - a one-out single by Orlando Palmeiro in the top of the third and a leadoff walk by Brian Buchanan in the bottom of the fourth.

The highlight of these two innings was Jeff Fassero striking out the side in the bottom of the third inning.

Fifth Inning

In the top of the fifth inning, Perez matched Fassero's bottom of the third inning by striking out the side. The middle of the three strikeouts was pinch hitter Wilson Delgado. This ended Jeff Fassero's day after four innings pitched.

Considering that this was Fassero's first start in three years, I suspect that Fassero gave the Tony LaRussa and the Cardinals exactly what they wanted out of him - maybe more. Fassero's day ended with one run allowed on five hits and one walk along with seven strikeouts in four innings pitched. The only downside was that the Cardinals had not managed to score yet, so Fassero was on the hook for the loss if things didn't change.

The new Cardinals pitcher was Garrett Stephenson - who was making his first relief stint of the season after having started 20 games. Stephenson entered play with a record of 4-10 and a 4.72 ERA, perhaps explaining why Fassero had started in place of him.

Stephenson, perhaps not used to coming out of the bullpen, got off to a rough start. He walked Ramon Vazquez. Gary Mathews, Jr. dumped a single into shallow center field. And when Stephenson hit Mark Loretta, the bases were loaded with nobody out.

When the bases are loaded and nobody is out, the probability of the batting team scoring a run is something like 85% and the expected runs scored in the inning are about 2.3. This inning is a good example of why those numbers are so high.

Having loaded the bases with nobody out, Stephenson settled down and retired the next three batters. But Ryan Klesko's fly to center field scored Vazquez and advanced Mathews to third base. And Rondell White's ground ball to third turned into a 5-4 force play on which Mathews was able to score. So when Stephenson struck out Brian Buchanan for the third out, the score was 3-0. If only Stephenson could have somehow reversed the order of the three outs.

Sixth Inning

Oliver Perez had been outstanding so far in the game: five shutout innings allowing only three singles and a walk with four strikeouts (including all three batters the previous inning). But the Cardinals offense was potent - they would finish the 2003 season second in the NL in runs scored - and even a three-run lead was not necessarily insurmountable.

And in the top of the sixth inning, the Cardinals began to try to surmount it.

• Orlando Palmeiro beat out an infield single.
• Albert Pujols doubled him to third base.
• Scott Rolen hit a sacrifice fly to right field with Palmeiro scoring and Pujols taking third on the play.
• Edgar Renteria singled up the middle to score Pujols.

But two runs was all the Cardinals could get as Eduardo Perez struck out and Tino Martinez grounded out to end the inning.

But the Cardinals still had three more innings and trailed by only one run, 3-2.

Garrett Stephenson came out for a second inning of relief. With one out, he hit Lou Merloni. Perez sacrificed him to second base but made the second out of the inning in the process. Vazquez walked to keep the inning alive, but Gary Matthews, Jr. grounded out to first base to end the inning.

Seventh Inning

Oliver Perez came out to pitch the seventh inning protecting a one-run lead and he looked as strong as ever. The inning opened with back-to-back strikeouts. Bo Hart laid down a bunt single with two outs, but Orlando Palmeiro hit a comebacker to Perez and the inning was over.

The second out of the top of the seventh - via strikeout - was made by J.D. Drew, who pinch hit for Stephenson. This meant a new Cardinals pitcher, Mike Crudale. Crudale alternated allowing groundouts and walks which worked out to a scoreless five-batter inning which ended with Padres' runners stranded on first and second base.

Eighth Inning

The eighth inning opened with a wonderful sight for Cardinals' eyes: a new Padres pitcher! Oliver Perez's day was over after seven innings in which he allowed two runs on seven hits and one walk with seven strikeouts. The Padres were going to try to get two innings out of their bullpen to try to preserve their narrow 3-2 lead.

First out of the bullpen for the Padres was Luther Hackman who had to face the heart of the Cardinals' order: 3-4-5 hitters Pujols, Rolen, and Renteria.

Albert Pujols lined a single to left field. Scott Rolen walked. And when Edgar Renteria lined a single to right field, the bases were loaded with nobody out.

Earlier, I noted that the probability of a team scoring at least one run when they load the bases with nobody out was 85% and the average team that does so can expect to score more than two runs. In this situation, with the Cardinals trailing by one run, this created the unusual situation where a traditional win probability estimate would suggest that the trailing team - the Cardinals - actually had a higher probability of winning this game than the team that was leading. Specifically, given the season and ballpark, I estimate that, at this point, the Cardinals had a 59% chance of winning this game (without taking into account the quality of the specific batters and pitchers involved).

Eduardo Perez hit a line drive - the third line drive allowed by Hackman out of three balls hit in play against him. But Perez's line drive was caught by second baseman Mark Loretta who threw to shortstop Ramon Vazquez to double Rolen off second base.

The Padres were one out away from getting out of the inning. But Luther Hackman wasn't going to get it - and who could blame Padres' manager Bruce Bochy for going to his bullpen.

The Padres' third pitcher of the game was left-hander Mike Matthews to face left-handed hitting Cardinals' first baseman Tino Martinez with the tying run on third base and the potential go-ahead run on first base.

Matthews fell behind in the count 2-0. But Martinez lofted the next pitch into right field where Brian Buchanan caught it for the third out and the Padres still clung to their 3-2 lead.

An insurance run or two would have been nice for the Padres at this point against new Cardinals pitcher Steve Kline. But Sean Burroughs (who had entered the game to play third base to start the eighth inning) grounded out, pinch hitter Xavier Nady flew out and Ramon Vazquez tried to bunt his way on but was thrown out by Kline.

Ninth Inning

Xavier Nady stayed in the game to play right field. And out of the bullpen, the Padres brought their closer, Rod Beck, to try to close out this game. Beck had been out of the major leagues in 2002 on the heels of a couple of so-so seasons. Beck's last great season had been in 1998 with the Chicago Cubs, for whom he had picked up 51 saves in a league-leading 81 games pitched. So far, Beck's 2003 comeback, which was not even two months old, had been nearly flawless. He entered this game having pitched 18 games of which he had saved 10 (he also had one win and one loss) with a 2.04 ERA.

The first batter to face Beck was Jim Edmonds, who pinch hit for Mike Matheny, who ended his day 0-for-3 with 3 strikeouts. Edmonds walked, putting the tying run on base for the Cardinals. That brought up Kerry Robinson, who had entered the game in the previous half-inning as part of a double switch. Robinson laid down a bunt that Beck fielded, but he had no play except at first base and the tying run was in scoring position with only one out and the top of the Cardinals' lineup coming up.

But Bo Hart struck out for the second time in the game - the eighth Cardinal batter to strike out in the game (matching the eight Padres strikeouts). Orlando Palmeiro put the ball in play, but on the ground where it was fielded by second baseman Mark Loretta, who threw Palmeiro out for the final out of the game.

Game Summary

Baseball's a funny game. The two starting pitchers entered the game with ERAs of 7.17 and 5.72 and the Cardinals entered the game 14 games ahead of the Padres in the standings. So, of course, the Padres won the game and the final score was 3-2. That's what makes baseball such a great game. You just never know what you're going to get.

The 2003 Cardinals finished the season exactly as far out of first place as they were entering this game: 3 games. Although they slipped to third place as the Chicago Cubs won 19 of their final 25 regular-season games - a stretch which started with the Cubs winning 4 of 5 from the Cardinals in Wrigley Field to open the month of September - to win the NL Central. Despite their win in this game, the Padres also ended the 2003 season in the same position they entered play on July 22nd: with the worst record in the National League, 64-98.

Jeff Fassero got five more starts in 2003 before going back to the bullpen. He only got the decision in one of them, but it was a loss and Fassero ended the 2003 season with a record of 1-7 and a 5.68 ERA. Fassero managed to hang around for three more seasons, over which he started 19 more games (along with 80 more games pitched in relief). Overall, Fassero pitched over 2,000 innings and accumulated 121 pitcher wins (and 25 saves) over his 16-year career.

Oliver Perez made only five more starts for the Padres in 2003 - because he was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, for whom he made five more starts. Like Fassero, Perez also failed to win another game in 2003 (for either the Padres or Pirates), ending the 2003 season with a record of 4-10 and a 5.47 ERA. Perez bounced back, however, in a big way in 2004 with the Pirates for whom he finished with a 12-10 record, 239 strikeouts, and a 2.98 ERA in 196 innings pitched. His 11.0 K/9 led the NL in 2004. Perez was never that good in a season again (at least not in that many innings), but he was still active in 2019 - his 17th major-league season, one more than Jeff Fassero.

Rod Beck finished the 2003 season with 20 saves with no blown saves and a 1.78 ERA. Beck came back for one more season in 2004 although not as a closer (Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman, who had shoulder surgery and missed most of the 2003 season, giving Beck his last shot as a major-league closer, came back in 2004). Beck finished his 13-year major-league career with 286 saves, the 20th-most in major-league history at the time of his retirement. Unfortunately, Beck passed away less than four years after this game took place at the age of 38.

Details of the game are shown below. First, I show Player won-lost records for all of the players who participated in the game. Baseball Player won-lost records are constructed so that the players on the winning team earn two pWins and one pLoss in the game while the players on the losing team earn one pWin and two pLosses. I also show expected wins and losses, eWins and eLosses, which are context-neutral. Full play by play details of the game are shown below the won-lost tables. My Player won-lost records are described in more detail in this article and throughout my website.

Retrosheet Box Score and Play-by-Play