Component 6: Singles v. Doubles v. Triples
In the sixth step of calculating Player Wins and Losses, batters, pitchers, and fielders are given credit and blame for the number of bases gained on hits on balls-in-play, i.e., singles versus doubles versus triples.1. Calculation of Component 6 Player Game PointsGiven that the batter reached base safely on a ball-in-play (via either hit or error), credits/debits are assigned in Component 6 for how many bases the batter gains. Basically, Component 6 credits batters for hitting doubles and triples as opposed to singles. Component 6 points are assigned assuming average baserunner advancement. Credits for baserunner outs and advancements are assigned in Components 8 and 9. Overall, Component 6 accounts for approximately 3.7% of total Player decisions from 1916 - 2019. This has declined slightly, to 3.3% since 2000.
2. Division of Component 6 Game Points Between Pitchers and FieldersComponent 6 Player Games are shared between pitchers and fielders based on the extent to which player winning percentages persist across different sample periods. The mathematics underlying this division is described elsewhere.
(Component 6 Win Pct)Even = b•(Component 6 Win Pct)Odd + (1-b)•(WinPct)Baseline
where (WinPct)Baseline represents a baseline winning percentage toward which Component 6 winning percentages regress over time. Equations of this type were fit for Component 6 Player Game Points for pitchers and fielders. Separate equations were estimated for each fielding position (except for pitcher, obviously). The results for these equations are shown below. A brief explanation of these variables follows.Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Catcher
Pitchers: n = 14,338, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (-30.47%)*WinPctOdd + (130.47%)*0.5000 (-39.65)
Catchers: n = 4,952, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (-2.80%)*WinPctOdd + (102.80%)*0.5000 (-2.064)
Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: First Basemen
Pitchers: n = 19,334, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (33.33%)*WinPctOdd + (66.67%)*0.5000 (47.29)
First Basemen: n = 6,167, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (-47.14%)*WinPctOdd + (147.14%)*0.5000 (-24.52)
Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Second Basemen
Pitchers: n = 23,036, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (85.34%)*WinPctOdd + (14.66%)*0.5000 (229.7)
Second Basemen: n = 6,990, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (65.45%)*WinPctOdd + (34.55%)*0.5000 (59.64)
Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Third Basemen
Pitchers: n = 26,590, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (45.01%)*WinPctOdd + (54.99%)*0.5000 (89.82)
Third Basemen: n = 8,035, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (28.58%)*WinPctOdd + (71.42%)*0.5000 (32.40)
Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Shortstop
Pitchers: n = 25,624, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (94.99%)*WinPctOdd + (5.01%)*0.5000 (372.8)
Shortstops: n = 6,701, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (25.29%)*WinPctOdd + (74.71%)*0.5000 (23.72)
Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Left Fielder
Pitchers: n = 36,305, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (3.39%)*WinPctOdd + (96.61%)*0.5000 (6.179)
Left Fielders: n = 13,435, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (24.59%)*WinPctOdd + (75.41%)*0.5000 (29.80)
Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Center Fielder
Pitchers: n = 36,257, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (12.14%)*WinPctOdd + (87.86%)*0.5000 (22.41)
Center Fielders: n = 9,526, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (30.03%)*WinPctOdd + (69.97%)*0.5000 (30.20)
Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Right Fielder
Pitchers: n = 35,584, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (12.50%)*WinPctOdd + (87.50%)*0.5000 (23.34)
Right Fielders: n = 11,905, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (29.39%)*WinPctOdd + (70.61%)*0.5000 (32.94)
3. Further Thoughts on Component 6 Player Game PointsOn offense, Component 6 is, of course, allocated to batters. This is obvious and, really, there is no other reasonable alternative. It is, however, open to debate whether the ability to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples is properly viewed as “Batting” as opposed to “Baserunning”. In general, I classify Component 6 as “batting” to be consistent with most other general batting measures, both traditional (e.g., total bases, slugging percentage) and sabermetric (e.g., runs created, batting wins), which distinguish between extra-base hits and singles. The extent to which Component 6 might be more reasonably viewed as a “baserunning” skill, however, is explored in a separate article.