**Component 6: Singles v. Doubles v. Triples**

Given that the batter reached base safely on a ball-in-play (via either hit or error), credits/debits are assigned in Component 6 for how many bases the batter gains. Basically, Component 6 credits batters for hitting doubles and triples as opposed to singles. Component 6 points are assigned assuming average baserunner advancement. Credits for baserunner outs and advancements are assigned in Components 8 and 9. Overall, Component 6 accounts for approximately 3.5% of total Player decisions from 1921 - 2018. This has declined slightly, to 3.2% since 2000.1. Calculation of Component 6 Player Game Points

Component 6 Player Games are shared between pitchers and fielders based on the extent to which player winning percentages persist across different sample periods. The mathematics underlying this division is described elsewhere.2. Division of Component 6 Game Points Between Pitchers and Fielders

To summarize, one measure of the extent to which a particular factor is a skill is the extent to which a player’s winning percentage persists over time. To evaluate the persistence of skills, I fit a simple persistence equation which modeled Component 6 winning percentage on even-numbered plays as a function of Component 6 winning percentage on odd-numbered plays:

(Component 6 Win Pct)_{Even} = b•(Component 6 Win Pct)_{Odd} + (1-b)•(WinPct)_{Baseline}

The number n is the number of players over whom the equation was estimated, that is, who accumulated any Player wins and/or losses on both odd- and even-numbered plays. The value R

note: To be precise, I estimate unique Persistence Equations for every season, which use all of my data in all of these equations, but weight the data based on how close to the season of interest it is. The equations shown here weight each season equally.

Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Catcher

Pitchers: n = 13,723, R^{2}= -1.1833

WinPct_{Even}= (-57.06%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (157.06%)*0.5000 (-87.04)

Catchers: n = 4,661, R^{2}= -0.0695

WinPct_{Even}= (-1.21%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (101.21%)*0.5000 (-0.915)

The share of Component 6.2 decisions allocated to pitchers is set equal to the persistence coefficient from the Pitcher equation
(-57.1%) divided by the sum of the two persistence coefficients
(-57.1% + -1.2%). This leaves Component 6.2 decisions split
97.9% to pitchers versus
2.1% to catchers.

Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: First Basemen

Pitchers: n = 18,529, R^{2}= -0.2538

WinPct_{Even}= (33.98%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (66.02%)*0.5000 (47.42)

First Basemen: n = 5,903, R^{2}= 0.0257

WinPct_{Even}= (-46.90%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (146.90%)*0.5000 (-23.87)

There is no significant persistence in Component 6.3 winning percentages for pitchers. Based on this, Component 6.3 decisions are allocated 100% to first basemen.

Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Second Basemen

Pitchers: n = 21,962, R^{2}= 0.1193

WinPct_{Even}= (85.91%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (14.09%)*0.5000 (231.5)

Second Basemen: n = 6,590, R^{2}= 0.2359

WinPct_{Even}= (66.51%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (33.49%)*0.5000 (59.31)

Component 6.4 decisions are split
56.4% to pitchers versus
43.6% to fielders.

Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Third Basemen

Pitchers: n = 25,336, R^{2}= -0.0125

WinPct_{Even}= (48.02%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (51.98%)*0.5000 (95.20)

Third Basemen: n = 7,663, R^{2}= 0.0578

WinPct_{Even}= (28.98%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (71.02%)*0.5000 (32.06)

Component 6.5 decisions are split
62.4% to pitchers versus
37.6% to fielders.

Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Shortstop

Pitchers: n = 24,476, R^{2}= 0.4494

WinPct_{Even}= (98.02%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (1.98%)*0.5000 (407.2)

Shortstops: n = 6,353, R^{2}= -0.0134

WinPct_{Even}= (30.48%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (69.52%)*0.5000 (26.79)

Component 6.6 decisions are split
76.3% to pitchers and
23.7% to fielders.

Shortstops receive the least credit for Component 6 decisions of any fielders. This makes a certain amount of sense, I think, as most extra-base hits are either hit to the outfield or are hit down the line in the infield.

Shortstops receive the least credit for Component 6 decisions of any fielders. This makes a certain amount of sense, I think, as most extra-base hits are either hit to the outfield or are hit down the line in the infield.

Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Left Fielder

Pitchers: n = 34,701, R^{2}= -0.0010

WinPct_{Even}= (3.87%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (96.13%)*0.5000 (6.970)

Left Fielders: n = 12,862, R^{2}= 0.0541

WinPct_{Even}= (24.01%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (75.99%)*0.5000 (28.51)

Left fielders receive the largest percentage of Component 6 credit of any fielder (outside of 1B):
86.1%.

This reflects two things, I believe. First, most extra-base hits are to the outfield, which is reflected in outfielders receiving more credit in general than infielders, and, specific to left-fielders, the range in fielding talent is probably greatest (at least among the outfield positions) at left field, where many teams try to hide some of their worst fielders (Frank Howard, Kevin Reimer, Manny Ramirez) while other teams put players who are very fast if nothing else (Lou Brock, Rickey Henderson, Carl Crawford), which likely helps to cut off would-be extra-base hits to the gaps.

This reflects two things, I believe. First, most extra-base hits are to the outfield, which is reflected in outfielders receiving more credit in general than infielders, and, specific to left-fielders, the range in fielding talent is probably greatest (at least among the outfield positions) at left field, where many teams try to hide some of their worst fielders (Frank Howard, Kevin Reimer, Manny Ramirez) while other teams put players who are very fast if nothing else (Lou Brock, Rickey Henderson, Carl Crawford), which likely helps to cut off would-be extra-base hits to the gaps.

Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Center Fielder

Pitchers: n = 34,623, R^{2}= -0.0108

WinPct_{Even}= (11.49%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (88.51%)*0.5000 (20.77)

Center Fielders: n = 9,042, R^{2}= 0.0762

WinPct_{Even}= (30.69%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (69.31%)*0.5000 (30.19)

Pitchers receive
27.2% of Component 6.8 player decisions, while center fielders receive
72.8%.

Persistence of Component 6 Winning Percentage: Right Fielder

Pitchers: n = 34,012, R^{2}= 0.0030

WinPct_{Even}= (12.83%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (87.17%)*0.5000 (23.43)

Right Fielders: n = 11,343, R^{2}= 0.0696

WinPct_{Even}= (28.25%)*WinPct_{Odd}+ (71.75%)*0.5000 (30.59)

Component 6 player decisions to right field are divided
31.2% to pitchers and
68.8% to right fielders.

Overall, Component 6 makes up about 14.9% of total fielding decisions for outfielders. In contrast, most defensive metrics focus exclusively on an outfielder’s ability to convert balls-in-play to outs (e.g., UZR, PMR, +/-, TotalZone). Attention is also generally paid to outfielders’ throwing arms and their ability to throw out baserunners and/or limit baserunner advancement (Components 8 and 9 of Player Games) – e.g., John Walsh at The Hardball Times. The ability of an outfielder to hold batters to singles, preventing extra-base hits, on the other hand, is a bit of a forgotten, but nevertheless important, defensive skill.

Component 6 leaders can be found here.

*All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.*

On offense, Component 6 is, of course, allocated to batters. This is obvious and, really, there is no other reasonable alternative. It is, however, open to debate whether the ability to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples is properly viewed as “Batting” as opposed to “Baserunning”. In general, I classify Component 6 as “batting” to be consistent with most other general batting measures, both traditional (e.g., total bases, slugging percentage) and sabermetric (e.g., runs created, batting wins), which distinguish between extra-base hits and singles. The extent to which Component 6 might be more reasonably viewed as a “baserunning” skill, however, is explored in a separate article.3. Further Thoughts on Component 6 Player Game Points

Overall, Component 6 makes up about 14.9% of total fielding decisions for outfielders. In contrast, most defensive metrics focus exclusively on an outfielder’s ability to convert balls-in-play to outs (e.g., UZR, PMR, +/-, TotalZone). Attention is also generally paid to outfielders’ throwing arms and their ability to throw out baserunners and/or limit baserunner advancement (Components 8 and 9 of Player Games) – e.g., John Walsh at The Hardball Times. The ability of an outfielder to hold batters to singles, preventing extra-base hits, on the other hand, is a bit of a forgotten, but nevertheless important, defensive skill.

Component 6 leaders can be found here.