Component 7: Ground-Ball Double Plays
In the seventh step of calculating Player Wins and Losses, batters, baserunners, pitchers, and fielders are given credit and blame for whether or not ground-ball outs become double plays in potential double-play situations.1. Calculation of Component 7 Player Game PointsComponent 7 comes into play when ground-ball outs are recorded in double-play situations – defined as a runner on first base and fewer than two outs. Offensive Component 7 games are split between the batter and the baserunner on first base. Defensive Component 7 games are split between pitchers and fielders. Fielding Component 7 games are split between the fielder who starts the initial play and the potential pivot man on the double play.
2. Division of Component 7 Game Points Between Pitchers and FieldersComponent 7 Player Games are shared between batters and baserunners, and between pitchers and fielders based on the extent to which player winning percentages persist across different sample periods. The mathematics underlying this division is described elsewhere.
(Component 7 Win Pct)Even = b•(Component 7 Win Pct)Odd + (1-b)•(WinPct)Baseline
where (WinPct)Baseline represents a baseline winning percentage toward which Component 7 winning percentages regress over time. Equations of this type were fit for Component 7 Player Game Points for batters and baserunners as well as for pitchers and fielders. Separate equations were estimated for each infield position (except for pitcher, obviously). The results for these equations are shown below. A brief explanation of these variables follows.Persistence of Component 7 Winning Percentage: Catcher
Pitchers: n = 1,560, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (13.24%)*WinPctOdd + (86.76%)*0.5000 (5.076)
Catchers: n = 2,468, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (6.87%)*WinPctOdd + (93.13%)*0.5000 (3.099)
Persistence of Component 7 Winning Percentage: First Basemen
Pitchers: n = 21,525, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (85.28%)*WinPctOdd + (14.72%)*0.5000 (237.7)
First Basemen: n = 6,438, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (43.87%)*WinPctOdd + (56.13%)*0.5000 (40.09)
Persistence of Component 7 Winning Percentage: Second Basemen
Pitchers: n = 27,375, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (-0.11%)*WinPctOdd + (100.11%)*0.5000 (-0.189)
Second Basemen: n = 7,411, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (20.73%)*WinPctOdd + (79.27%)*0.5000 (18.71)
Persistence of Component 7 Winning Percentage: Third Basemen
Pitchers: n = 2,413, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (1.56%)*WinPctOdd + (98.44%)*0.5000 (0.681)
Third Basemen: n = 2,724, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (-1.02%)*WinPctOdd + (101.02%)*0.5000 (-0.528)
Persistence of Component 7 Winning Percentage: Shortstops
Pitchers: n = 24,103, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (-0.89%)*WinPctOdd + (100.89%)*0.5000 (-1.358)
Shortstops: n = 6,140, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (17.72%)*WinPctOdd + (82.28%)*0.5000 (14.27)
3. Impact of the Baserunner on First Base on Double Play Ground BallsComponent 7 Player Games are divided between pitchers and fielders based on the extent to which player winning percentages persist across different sample periods as outlined above. A similar analysis was undertaken to see if the baserunner on first base had any apparent influence on Component 7. Persistence equations were estimated for batters and baserunners. The results were as follows.
Persistence of Component 7 Winning Percentage
Batters: n = 47,613, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (19.87%)*WinPctOdd + (80.13%)*0.5000 (43.76)
Baserunners: n = 43,593, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (4.03%)*WinPctOdd + (95.97%)*0.5000 (8.350)