Component 8: Baserunner Outs
In the eighth step of calculating Player Wins and Losses, batters, baserunners, and fielders are given credit and blame for baserunning outs. Components 8 and 9 are the only two components for which pitchers receive no credit. Instead, the ability to throw out baserunners and/or allow/prevent baserunner advancement (Component 9) are attributed entirely to the fielders responsible for the play(s).1. Calculation of Component 8 Player Game PointsComponent 8 doles out credits/debits for whether any baserunners (including the batter) are thrown out on the bases. Ground-ball double plays are not included here – those are measured in Component 7. As with most other components, players are credited for baserunner outs as well as for avoiding (failing to make) baserunner outs, so that the overall Component 8 winning percentage is 0.500. Component 8 Player decisions are allocated to any baserunner on third base first, followed by any baserunner on second, followed by any baserunner on first, then, finally by the batter.
2. Impact of the Batter on Baserunner OutsComponent 8 Player Games are shared between batters and baserunners based on the extent to which player winning percentages persist across different sample periods. The mathematics underlying this division is described elsewhere.
(Component 8 Win Pct)Even = b•(Component 8 Win Pct)Odd + (1-b)•(WinPct)Baseline
where (WinPct)Baseline represents a baseline winning percentage toward which Component 8 winning percentages regress over time.Persistence of Component 8 Winning Percentage: Baserunner on First Base
Batters: n = 56,887, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (38.12%)*WinPctOdd + (61.88%)*0.5000 (100.9)
Baserunners: n = 58,292, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (41.59%)*WinPctOdd + (58.41%)*0.5000 (107.0)
Persistence of Component 8 Winning Percentage: Baserunner on Second Base
Batters: n = 53,372, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (53.33%)*WinPctOdd + (46.67%)*0.5000 (145.7)
Baserunners: n = 52,550, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (37.40%)*WinPctOdd + (62.60%)*0.5000 (89.92)
Persistence of Component 8 Winning Percentage: Baserunner on Third Base
Batters: n = 43,716, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (82.45%)*WinPctOdd + (17.55%)*0.5000 (297.1)
Baserunners: n = 42,003, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (73.33%)*WinPctOdd + (26.67%)*0.5000 (219.2)