Component 9: Baserunner Advancement
In the ninth step of calculating Player Wins and Losses, batters, baserunners, and fielders are given credit and blame for baserunner advancements.1. Calculation of Component 9 Player Game PointsComponent 9 doles out credits/debits for whether any baserunners (including the batter) advance above or below expectations given the type of play (hit, out) and the location and hit type (if available). Component 9 Player game points are allocated to any baserunner on third base first, followed by any baserunner on second, followed by any baserunner on first, then, finally by the batter. Component 9 accounts for 6.3% of total player decisions, making it the fourth-largest component behind Components 3, 4, and 5. Component 9 is the largest component of baserunner player decisions, accounting for 39.9% of total baserunner decisions. Component 9 is the second-largest component of fielding decisions for both infielders and outfielders, behind only Component 5. Component 9 accounts for 10.4% of total fielding decisions for infielders (excluding pitchers and catchers) and 22.3% of total fielding decisions for outfielders.
2. Impact of the Batter on Baserunner AdvancementsComponent 9 Player Games are shared between batters and baserunners based on the extent to which player winning percentages persist across different sample periods. The mathematics underlying this division is described elsewhere.
(Component 9 Win Pct)Even = b•(Component 9 Win Pct)Odd + (1-b)•(WinPct)Baseline
where (WinPct)Baseline represents a baseline winning percentage toward which Component 9 winning percentages regress over time.Persistence of Component 9 Winning Percentage: Baserunner on First Base
Batters: n = 53,196, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (19.73%)*WinPctOdd + (80.27%)*0.5000 (46.72)
Baserunners: n = 52,654, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (41.19%)*WinPctOdd + (58.81%)*0.5000 (105.3)
Persistence of Component 9 Winning Percentage: Baserunner on Second Base
Batters: n = 47,518, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (15.26%)*WinPctOdd + (84.74%)*0.5000 (33.57)
Baserunners: n = 46,312, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (17.47%)*WinPctOdd + (82.53%)*0.5000 (38.16)
Persistence of Component 9 Winning Percentage: Baserunner on Third Base
Batters: n = 34,413, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (11.56%)*WinPctOdd + (88.44%)*0.5000 (22.02)
Baserunners: n = 31,706, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (-5.38%)*WinPctOdd + (105.38%)*0.5000 (-9.349)