2007 Season

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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2007 Season

The 2007 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

Next in my continuing series of looking at individual seasons through the prism of Player won-lost records is the 2007 season.

The 2007 regular season was so good that they added an extra game, which was so good that it lasted thirteen innings.

The Best of 2007

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Alex Rodriguez	25.3	16.3	8.8	10.6	1	Alex Rodriguez	25.3	16.3	8.8	10.6
2	Vladimir Guerrero Sr.	22.6	15.6	6.3	8.1	2	Vladimir Guerrero Sr.	22.6	15.6	6.3	8.1
3	Brandon Webb	17.0	12.1	6.2	8.1	3	Brandon Webb	17.0	12.1	6.2	8.1
4	Matt Holliday	26.0	18.9	6.1	8.1	4	Matt Holliday	26.0	18.9	6.1	8.1
5	Kelvim Escobar	14.7	9.1	6.0	7.7	5	Kelvim Escobar	14.7	9.1	6.0	7.7
6	Jake Peavy	15.5	10.9	6.0	7.6	6	Jake Peavy	15.5	10.9	6.0	7.6
7	Magglio Ordonez	23.7	17.4	5.6	7.4	7	Magglio Ordonez	23.7	17.4	5.6	7.4
8	C.C. Sabathia	15.1	9.9	5.6	7.3	8	C.C. Sabathia	15.1	9.9	5.6	7.3
9	Erik Bedard	12.1	7.5	5.0	6.3	9	Fausto Carmona	14.6	10.2	4.8	6.5
10	Fausto Carmona	14.6	10.2	4.8	6.5	10	Erik Bedard	12.1	7.5	5.0	6.3

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Alex Rodriguez	24.4	17.1	7.1	8.9	1	Alex Rodriguez	24.4	17.1	7.1	8.9
2	Tim Hudson	14.5	10.1	5.7	7.2	2	Matt Holliday	25.8	19.1	5.6	7.6
3	Jake Peavy	15.4	11.0	5.7	7.3	3	Brandon Webb	16.5	12.6	5.5	7.3
4	Matt Holliday	25.8	19.1	5.6	7.6	4	Jake Peavy	15.4	11.0	5.7	7.3
5	Chipper Jones	19.8	13.7	5.6	7.1	5	Tim Hudson	14.5	10.1	5.7	7.2
6	Brandon Webb	16.5	12.6	5.5	7.3	6	Chipper Jones	19.8	13.7	5.6	7.1
7	C.C. Sabathia	15.0	10.0	5.3	7.0	7	C.C. Sabathia	15.0	10.0	5.3	7.0
8	Magglio Ordonez	23.4	17.7	5.0	6.8	8	David Ortiz	18.5	12.7	4.8	6.8
9	Albert Pujols	20.2	14.2	4.8	6.3	9	Magglio Ordonez	23.4	17.7	5.0	6.8
10	David Wright	22.2	16.8	4.8	6.5	10	David Wright	22.2	16.8	4.8	6.5

I take a look at some of the most interesting players of 2007 at the end of this article.

2007 Postseason

Objectively speaking, the 2007 postseason was, in some respects, exceptionally boring. Out of 28 postseason games played, only four were won by the team who did not go on to win the series, 3 of which came in the same series and none by a National League team.

Still, it's baseball and it's the postseason, so there was plenty of note that did happen. The Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians, and Philadelphia Phillies made the postseason for the first time in 5, 6, and 14 years, respectively.

The Colorado Rockies closed the regular season by winning 14 of their final 15 games, including a dramatic 13-inning Game 163 to make the postseason for only the second time in their history and the first time in 12 years. They then extended their hot streak with 3-game and 4-game sweeps in the first rounds of the playoffs - 21 wins in 22 games overall over exactly a month (Sep 16 - Oct 15) - to make the first (and, so far, only) World Series appearance in franchise history.

The best players in the 2007 postseason as measured by Player won-lost records are shown in the tables below. The generally lopsided nature of the playoffs can be seen here as no players from losing teams show up on any of the series-level lists (the lack of Indians players in the LCS table is perhaps the only real surprise there).

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	pWORL
	2007 Postseason: Total

Josh Beckett	BOS	2.3	0.8	1.8
Manny Ramirez	BOS	2.8	1.5	1.4
David Ortiz	BOS	1.9	1.0	1.0
J.D. Drew	BOS	1.9	1.0	0.9
Kazuo Matsui	COL	1.9	1.2	0.9
Kevin Youkilis	BOS	1.7	0.9	0.9
Jonathan Papelbon	BOS	1.0	0.2	0.9
Mike Lowell	BOS	2.3	1.6	0.8
Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	1.1	0.4	0.7
Chris B. Young	ARI	1.3	0.7	0.7

Top postseason players by round were as follows.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2007 World Series

Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	0.8	0.3	0.5
Jonathan Papelbon	BOS	0.5	0.1	0.4
Mike Lowell	BOS	0.7	0.3	0.4
Josh Beckett	BOS	0.5	0.2	0.4
Dustin Pedroia	BOS	0.6	0.3	0.3

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2007 Postseason: League Championship Series

J.D. Drew	BOS	1.2	0.5	0.7
Josh Beckett	BOS	1.1	0.5	0.6
Manny Ramirez	BOS	1.4	0.9	0.5
Yorvit Torrealba	COL	0.8	0.3	0.5
Matt Holliday	COL	0.8	0.3	0.5

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2007 Postseason: Division Series

Kazuo Matsui	COL	1.1	0.2	0.8
Manny Ramirez	BOS	1.0	0.2	0.7
Chris B. Young	ARI	0.8	0.1	0.7
David Ortiz	BOS	0.7	0.0	0.7
Grady Sizemore	CLE	0.8	0.2	0.6

Best of 2007 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 2007 in wins over positional average (WOPA) by factor were as follows.


Batting
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Alex Rodriguez	18.5	11.9	6.6	1	Alex Rodriguez	19.5	10.9	8.5
2	David Ortiz	17.4	11.8	5.5	2	Vladimir Guerrero Sr.	16.9	10.5	6.3
3	Magglio Ordonez	17.2	12.1	5.1	3	Magglio Ordonez	17.6	11.7	5.9
4	Chipper Jones	15.5	10.2	5.0	4	Prince Fielder	16.4	10.3	5.8
5	Carlos Pena	13.8	8.9	4.9	5	Matt Holliday	18.3	12.4	5.5
6	Prince Fielder	16.0	10.8	4.8	6	David Ortiz	17.2	11.9	5.3
7	Albert Pujols	15.7	11.0	4.4	7	Ryan Howard	15.1	9.9	4.9
8	Matt Holliday	17.7	13.0	4.3	8	Jack Cust	12.2	7.5	4.7
9	David Wright	15.6	11.0	4.2	9	Albert Pujols	15.8	10.9	4.5
10	Ryan Howard	14.7	10.3	4.1	10	Chipper Jones	15.2	10.4	4.5

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Baserunning
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Jose B. Reyes	3.2	1.8	1.3	1	Jimmy Rollins	2.0	0.9	1.1
2	Juan Pierre	2.7	1.4	1.2	2	Kazuo Matsui	1.8	0.7	1.1
3	Kazuo Matsui	1.7	0.8	0.9	3	Coco Crisp	1.7	0.7	1.0
4	Jimmy Rollins	1.9	1.0	0.9	4	Jose B. Reyes	3.0	1.9	1.0
5	Gary Sheffield	1.5	0.7	0.8	5	Juan Pierre	2.5	1.6	0.9
6	Shane Victorino	1.3	0.6	0.7	6	Ian Kinsler	1.2	0.5	0.7
7	Coco Crisp	1.5	0.8	0.7	7	Shane Victorino	1.3	0.6	0.7
8	Brian Roberts	1.8	1.2	0.6	8	Rickie Weeks	1.3	0.6	0.7
9	Curtis Granderson	1.5	0.9	0.6	9	Gary Sheffield	1.4	0.8	0.6
10	Dave R. Roberts	1.3	0.7	0.6	10	Eric Byrnes	1.7	1.1	0.6

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Pitching
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLoss	Net pWins
1	Brandon Webb	14.9	10.6	4.3	1	Brandon Webb	15.8	9.7	6.1
2	C.C. Sabathia	14.1	10.0	4.1	2	C.C. Sabathia	14.7	9.3	5.4
3	Tim Hudson	12.4	8.7	3.6	3	Kelvim Escobar	14.0	8.7	5.2
4	Jake Peavy	13.1	9.5	3.6	4	Jake Peavy	13.8	8.9	4.9
5	Takashi Saito	5.9	2.7	3.2	5	J.J. Putz	6.8	2.3	4.5
6	Fausto Carmona	13.5	10.5	3.0	6	Erik Bedard	11.9	7.4	4.5
7	Josh Beckett	11.1	8.2	2.9	7	Takashi Saito	6.5	2.0	4.5
8	Kelvim Escobar	12.7	9.9	2.8	8	Fausto Carmona	14.1	9.9	4.2
9	Rafael Betancourt	5.4	2.7	2.7	9	John Lackey	14.0	9.8	4.1
10	Erik Bedard	10.9	8.4	2.6	10	Frankie Rodriguez	8.0	3.8	4.1

Fielding by Position


Fielding, P
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Kelvim Escobar	0.7	0.2	0.5	1	Kelvim Escobar	0.7	0.2	0.5
2	Jeff Suppan	0.5	0.3	0.3	2	Brandon Backe	0.4	0.0	0.4
3	Fausto Carmona	0.5	0.2	0.2	3	Fausto Carmona	0.5	0.2	0.3
4	Javier Vazquez	0.4	0.1	0.2	4	Jeff Suppan	0.5	0.2	0.3
5	David Bush	0.4	0.2	0.2	5	Huston Street	0.4	0.2	0.3


Fielding, C
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Gerald Laird	1.7	1.1	0.6	1	Chris Snyder	1.7	1.0	0.7
2	Kenji Johjima	1.5	1.0	0.5	2	Russ Martin	2.2	1.6	0.6
3	Chris Snyder	1.6	1.1	0.5	3	Gerald Laird	1.6	1.1	0.5
4	Yadier Molina	1.4	0.9	0.4	4	Yadier Molina	1.4	0.9	0.5
5	Joe Mauer	1.0	0.6	0.4	5	Kenji Johjima	1.5	1.0	0.5


Fielding, 1B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Albert Pujols	3.3	2.2	1.1	1	Albert Pujols	3.4	2.1	1.3
2	Todd Helton	3.1	2.3	0.8	2	Todd Helton	3.1	2.2	0.9
3	Kevin Youkilis	2.4	1.7	0.7	3	Kevin Youkilis	2.5	1.7	0.8
4	Adam LaRoche	2.4	2.0	0.3	4	Casey Kotchman	2.4	1.6	0.8
5	Casey Kotchman	2.1	1.8	0.3	5	Adrian Gonzalez	3.5	2.8	0.7


Fielding, 2B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Orlando Hudson	5.7	5.0	0.7	1	Orlando Hudson	6.3	4.4	1.9
2	Tadahito Iguchi	5.2	4.5	0.7	2	Robinson Cano	6.5	4.6	1.9
3	Aaron Hill	6.9	6.3	0.6	3	Mark Ellis	6.0	4.6	1.4
4	Mark Ellis	5.6	5.0	0.6	4	Chase Utley	5.7	4.7	1.0
5	Kazuo Matsui	3.4	2.9	0.6	5	Kazuo Matsui	3.6	2.7	0.9


Fielding, 3B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Mike Lowell	4.4	3.6	0.8	1	Ryan Zimmerman	5.8	4.7	1.1
2	Ryan Zimmerman	5.7	4.9	0.8	2	Brandon Inge	5.1	4.4	0.7
3	Pedro Feliz	4.7	4.0	0.7	3	Chris Gomez	1.2	0.5	0.7
4	Abraham Nunez (1997)	2.8	2.1	0.7	4	Mike Lowell	4.3	3.7	0.6
5	Joe Crede	1.7	1.2	0.4	5	Eric Chavez	2.8	2.2	0.6


Fielding, SS
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Troy Tulowitzki	7.0	5.8	1.2	1	Troy Tulowitzki	7.1	5.6	1.5
2	Omar Vizquel	5.7	4.6	1.0	2	Tony Pena Jr.	6.3	5.1	1.2
3	Tony Pena Jr.	6.1	5.2	0.8	3	John McDonald (1999)	4.4	3.3	1.2
4	Adam Everett	2.6	2.1	0.5	4	Omar Vizquel	5.7	4.6	1.1
5	Khalil Greene	6.2	5.8	0.5	5	Jason Bartlett	5.5	4.7	0.8


Fielding, LF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Ryan Church	4.3	2.9	1.4	1	Alfonso Soriano	6.8	4.4	2.3
2	Matt Holliday	6.6	5.5	1.2	2	Eric Byrnes	5.0	3.8	1.2
3	Alfonso Soriano	6.1	5.2	0.9	3	Jason Botts	1.6	0.6	1.0
4	Eric Byrnes	4.8	4.0	0.8	4	Scott Hairston	2.8	2.0	0.8
5	Jason Botts	1.4	0.8	0.6	5	Matt Holliday	6.4	5.7	0.8


Fielding, CF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Ichiro Suzuki	6.8	5.9	1.0	1	Carlos Beltran	6.1	4.5	1.6
2	Coco Crisp	5.0	4.3	0.7	2	Ichiro Suzuki	7.0	5.7	1.3
3	Josh Hamilton	2.6	2.0	0.6	3	Nook Logan	4.3	3.3	1.0
4	Chris Duffy	2.9	2.4	0.5	4	Alfredo Amezaga	3.9	2.9	1.0
5	Jacque Jones	2.9	2.4	0.5	5	Coco Crisp	5.1	4.1	1.0


Fielding, RF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Alexis Rios	6.3	4.8	1.5	1	Shane Victorino	6.0	3.8	2.2
2	Jeremy Hermida	5.6	4.4	1.2	2	Jeff Francoeur	7.6	6.3	1.3
3	Austin Kearns	7.5	6.6	0.9	3	Alexis Rios	6.2	4.9	1.3
4	Jeff Francoeur	7.4	6.6	0.9	4	Vladimir Guerrero Sr.	4.7	3.8	0.9
5	Lastings Milledge	1.7	1.1	0.6	5	Austin Kearns	7.5	6.6	0.8

Best by Position

Next, we look at 2007 Major-League leaders by position. The figures shown here only include Player decisions earned while playing this particular position.


Catcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Victor Martinez	12.9	11.0	2.9	1	Russ Martin	16.9	13.6	4.2
2	Jorge Posada	12.8	10.9	2.8	2	Victor Martinez	12.9	11.0	3.0
3	Russ Martin	16.1	14.4	2.7	3	Chris Snyder	9.8	7.9	2.4
4	Joe Mauer	9.2	8.0	2.0	4	Jorge Posada	12.3	11.4	2.0
5	Jason Varitek	11.0	10.5	1.5	5	Brian McCann	13.6	12.6	1.9


First Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Albert Pujols	19.8	14.3	4.2	1	Albert Pujols	19.8	14.2	4.3
2	Carlos Pena	16.8	12.2	3.9	2	Prince Fielder	19.0	13.6	4.2
3	Prince Fielder	18.4	14.3	2.8	3	Adrian Gonzalez	21.0	15.9	3.8
4	Todd Helton	18.0	14.1	2.6	4	Ryan Howard	17.1	12.4	3.7
5	Ryan Howard	16.5	13.0	2.4	5	Todd Helton	18.0	14.2	2.5


Second Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Chase Utley	19.3	15.1	4.1	1	Chase Utley	19.6	14.8	4.7
2	Placido Polanco	17.9	16.3	1.9	2	Kazuo Matsui	13.9	10.5	3.3
3	B.J. Upton	6.7	5.0	1.8	3	Robinson Cano	20.0	17.2	3.1
4	Ian Kinsler	16.7	15.2	1.8	4	Placido Polanco	18.1	16.1	2.3
5	Kelly Johnson	16.9	15.2	1.7	5	Orlando Hudson	17.2	15.1	2.0


Third Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Alex Rodriguez	23.6	17.0	6.4	1	Alex Rodriguez	24.6	16.0	8.3
2	Chipper Jones	18.8	13.2	5.0	2	Chipper Jones	18.7	13.3	4.8
3	David Wright	21.8	16.8	4.3	3	Aramis Ramirez	19.4	14.6	4.2
4	Mike Lowell	19.7	17.0	2.4	4	David Wright	21.6	17.0	4.0
5	Miguel Cabrera	19.5	16.7	2.2	5	Miguel Cabrera	19.7	16.5	2.6


Shortstop
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jimmy Rollins	22.8	19.4	3.5	1	Jimmy Rollins	22.9	19.3	3.8
2	Hanley Ramirez	22.0	18.9	3.2	2	Derek Jeter	21.2	18.0	3.7
3	Troy Tulowitzki	21.2	18.7	2.6	3	Troy Tulowitzki	21.5	18.4	3.2
4	Jose B. Reyes	21.9	19.9	2.2	4	Orlando Cabrera	20.4	18.5	2.5
5	Khalil Greene	20.0	18.1	2.1	5	Khalil Greene	19.9	18.2	1.9


Left Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Matt Holliday	25.7	19.1	5.5	1	Matt Holliday	26.0	19.1	6.2
2	Barry Bonds	14.3	11.0	2.8	2	Barry Bonds	14.5	11.0	3.1
3	Hideki Matsui	15.2	12.3	2.5	3	Alfonso Soriano	19.2	16.5	3.1
4	Pat Burrell	17.0	14.2	2.1	4	Eric Byrnes	15.7	12.9	2.7
5	Adam Dunn	19.5	16.8	1.9	5	Pat Burrell	17.2	14.2	2.4


Center Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Grady Sizemore	20.9	18.1	2.9	1	Grady Sizemore	21.7	17.3	4.4
2	Carlos Beltran	19.1	16.1	2.8	2	Carlos Beltran	19.9	15.2	4.4
3	Curtis Granderson	20.4	17.8	2.7	3	Ichiro Suzuki	21.3	18.5	2.9
4	Aaron Rowand	20.9	18.7	1.8	4	Curtis Granderson	20.4	17.8	2.7
5	Hunter Pence	14.5	12.5	1.7	5	Coco Crisp	17.3	15.4	2.0


Right Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Magglio Ordonez	22.0	16.9	4.4	1	Magglio Ordonez	22.4	16.5	5.3
2	Alexis Rios	20.9	16.8	3.5	2	Vladimir Guerrero Sr.	17.5	12.3	4.8
3	Vladimir Guerrero Sr.	16.3	13.5	2.3	3	Shane Victorino	15.1	11.8	2.6
4	Jeremy Hermida	15.3	12.9	1.6	4	J.D. Drew	16.6	13.5	2.5
5	Jayson Werth	7.4	5.7	1.4	5	Brad Hawpe	19.7	16.2	2.5


Starting Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Brandon Webb	15.4	11.3	4.5	1	Brandon Webb	16.3	10.4	6.4
2	C.C. Sabathia	14.3	10.5	4.2	2	Kelvim Escobar	14.6	8.9	6.1
3	Tim Hudson	12.8	9.0	4.1	3	C.C. Sabathia	15.0	9.7	5.6
4	Jake Peavy	13.3	9.7	4.0	4	Jake Peavy	14.0	9.0	5.4
5	Kelvim Escobar	13.4	10.2	3.6	5	Erik Bedard	12.1	7.4	4.9
6	Fausto Carmona	14.0	10.8	3.6	6	Fausto Carmona	14.6	10.1	4.9
7	Josh Beckett	11.2	8.4	3.1	7	John Lackey	14.2	10.2	4.4
8	Erik Bedard	11.1	8.4	3.0	8	Brad Penny	12.0	8.0	4.3
9	John Smoltz	12.3	9.7	2.9	9	Josh Beckett	11.7	7.9	4.1
10	Brad Penny	11.3	8.7	2.8	10	Aaron Harang	13.4	9.6	4.1


Relief Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Takashi Saito	6.1	2.8	3.1	1	Takashi Saito	6.7	2.1	4.3
2	Rafael Betancourt	5.4	2.7	2.5	2	J.J. Putz	6.9	2.3	4.2
3	Heath Bell	6.7	4.2	2.1	3	Frankie Rodriguez	8.0	3.9	3.8
4	Bobby Jenks	5.6	3.3	2.1	4	Joe Nathan	7.3	3.5	3.4
5	Joakim Soria	5.4	3.1	2.0	5	Rafael Betancourt	5.9	2.2	3.4
6	J.J. Putz	5.7	3.5	1.9	6	Jonathan Papelbon	6.1	2.6	3.2
7	Francisco Cordero	6.8	4.8	1.7	7	Joakim Soria	5.8	2.7	2.8
8	Matt Capps	5.8	3.9	1.7	8	Jose Valverde	7.7	4.6	2.8
9	Mariano Rivera	6.1	4.2	1.6	9	Jason Isringhausen	5.2	2.4	2.6
10	Joe Nathan	6.3	4.5	1.6	10	Francisco Cordero	7.2	4.4	2.5


Designated Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	David Ortiz	17.3	12.2	4.2	1	David Ortiz	17.4	12.1	4.2
2	Jim Thome	12.9	9.1	3.1	2	Jim Thome	13.0	9.0	3.2
3	Travis Hafner	13.0	10.5	1.6	3	Travis Hafner	13.6	9.9	2.9

Finally, here are the best at three oft-forgotten positions that can nevertheless matter: pitcher offense, pinch hitting, and pinch running.


Pitcher Offense
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Micah Owings	1.4	1.0	0.9	1	Micah Owings	1.6	0.8	1.2
2	Dontrelle Willis	1.1	1.2	0.6	2	Adam Wainwright	1.2	1.2	0.7
3	Jake Peavy	1.4	2.0	0.5	3	Jake Peavy	1.5	1.9	0.6


Pinch Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	B.J. Upton	0.8	0.1	0.7	1	B.J. Upton	0.9	0.0	0.9
2	Orlando Hudson	0.7	0.1	0.7	2	Andre Ethier	1.0	0.2	0.8
3	Andre Ethier	0.9	0.3	0.6	3	Jeff Salazar	0.8	0.1	0.8


Pinch Runner
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Kazuo Matsui	0.2	0.0	0.2	1	Kazuo Matsui	0.2	0.0	0.1
2	Cameron Maybin	0.1	0.0	0.1	2	Jamey Carroll	0.2	0.1	0.1
3	Rajai Davis	0.1	0.0	0.1	3	J.J. Furmaniak	0.1	0.0	0.1

Noteworthy Players of 2007

Alex Rodriguez

Player won-lost records agrees with the 2007 American League MVP voters. Clearly the best player in the major leagues in 2007, as measured by Player won-lost records - in or out of context, relative to average or replacement level - was Yankees' third baseman Alex Rodriguez.

The next table shows the top 10 seasons, ranked by pWOPA, by players who compiled a majority of their player decisions while playing third base, for all seasons for which I have calculated Player won-lost records.

Player	Season	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
Top Seasons by a Third Baseman, based on pWOPA
Alex Rodriguez	2007	25.3	16.3	8.8	10.6
Scott Rolen	2004	23.0	13.8	8.5	10.4
Eric Chavez	2001	21.7	13.3	8.5	10.3
Harmon Killebrew	1969	24.6	15.2	8.4	10.5
Al Rosen	1953	26.7	17.2	8.3	10.8
Joe Torre	1971	26.2	17.1	8.2	10.4
Alex Rodriguez	2005	25.5	17.2	8.2	10.1
George Brett	1980	18.5	10.3	8.1	9.5
Heinie Groh	1919	20.0	12.3	7.6	9.6
Robin Ventura	1999	23.4	15.5	7.6	9.5

Matt Holliday

Player won-lost records do not agree with the 2007 National League MVP voters. The winner, Jimmy Rollins, had a fine season, although it was not good enough to make any of the four major top-10 lists at the beginning of this article. But the best position player in the National League in 2007, as measured by Player won-lost records, was Colorado Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday.

I remember thinking at the time in 2007 that Matt Holliday had come out of nowhere. The next table shows Matt Holliday's career.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
2004	COL	24	121	10.5	13.0	-2.2	-3.4
2005	COL	25	125	15.2	16.9	-1.2	-2.7
2006	COL	26	155	21.0	20.7	0.8	-1.1
2007	COL	27	158	26.0	18.9	8.1	6.1
2008	COL	28	139	20.7	16.3	5.2	3.5
+– 2009		29	156	22.3	19.4	4.1	2.2
	OAK		93	11.7	12.2	0.3	-0.8
	SLN		63	10.5	7.1	3.9	3.1
2010	SLN	30	158	22.8	18.8	4.7	2.8
2011	SLN	31	124	16.8	13.0	4.9	3.4
2012	SLN	32	157	21.3	17.2	5.1	3.2
2013	SLN	33	141	20.9	15.3	6.8	5.0
2014	SLN	34	156	23.0	18.4	5.7	3.8
2015	SLN	35	73	7.6	6.4	1.7	1.0
2016	SLN	36	109	11.4	10.4	1.7	0.7
2017	NYA	37	105	8.7	8.6	1.5	0.3
2018	COL	38	25	1.4	1.4	0.1	-0.1
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			1,902	249.9	214.8	47.0	24.9
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			77	8.3	8.7	0.0	-0.8
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			1,979	258.1	223.5	47.0	24.1

Holliday's career took a definite step up in 2007, although the quality of his play in 2005 and 2006 was masked somewhat by context (i.e., it wasn't noticed because he played on lousy teams). The 2007 season was definitely Matt Holliday's peak season, but it was more of a "breakthrough" season than a "spike" or "fluke" season, as he certainly remained a solid major-league player for many years thereafter.

Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb

Jake Peavy won the 2007 NL Cy Young award unanimously. Based on Player won-lost records, Peavy was not necessarily a bad choice, but Brandon Webb is ahead of Peavy in 3 of the first 4 tables of this article.

The table below compares Jake Peavy's and Brandon Webb's 2007 seasons, in and out of context.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
Jake Peavy	37	15.5	10.9	0.587	6.0	7.6	15.4	11.0	0.583	5.7	7.3
Brandon Webb	34	17.0	12.1	0.584	6.2	8.1	16.5	12.6	0.568	5.5	7.3

Controlling for context and the ability of their teammates - i.e., as measured via eWins - Jake Peavy's and Brandon Webb's seasons were very similar in value.

Putting their records in context, however, Webb pulls distinctly ahead of Peavy. It seems a little odd that context helps the guy who finished with a traditional W-L record of 18-10 gain ground on the guy who finished 19-6. Looking a bit more closely at the 2007 gamelogs for Peavy and Webb, however, helps us to understand this a bit better.

First, the difference in their personal (traditional) W-L records somewhat overstates the difference in their teams' record in their respective starts. The Padres went 23-11 in Peavy's starts, only one game better than the Diamondbacks' 22-12 record in Webb's starts.

In games in which his team scored 3 or fewer runs (for the entire game, not merely while he was in the game), Jake Peavy's team went 6-9. Webb's team did (very) slightly better at 7-9. Looking at games where the Padres or D-Backs scored 2 or fewer runs in Peavy's and Webb's starts, however, is where we start to see a bit of separation. The Padres went 1-8 in such games while the Diamondbacks had a surprisingly respectable 3-5 record in such games with Webb pitching 23 shutout innings over three games in which the Diamondbacks scored a total of 4 runs.

It's not a lot of difference and, really, even at best, it pushes Brandon Webb's 2007 season maybe as much as a 0.5-win better than Jake Peavy's. But, then again, the Arizona Diamondbacks beat the San Diego Padres by one game (not counting the Padres' Game 163 loss) for the NL West division title: turn one of Webb's 1-0 wins into a 2-1 loss and the 2007 season might have turned out quite different for these two teams.

Micah Owings

The top hitting pitcher in 2007 was Micah Owings. For his career, Owings has the rare distinction for a pitcher of having amassed a better Player winning percentage on offense (i.e., batting and baserunning) than on defense (i.e., pitching and fielding).

The next table shows all such players who amassed at least 5 offensive Player decisions and 20 Player pitching wins in their career, sorted by career Player pitching wins.

Player	eWins	eLosses	eWinPct	eWins	eLosses	eWinPct
	Offense			Defense
Don Newcombe	18.8	17.7	0.516	116.6	114.8	0.504
Earl Wilson	15.9	16.0	0.498	115.9	120.6	0.490
Blue Moon Odom	8.3	8.8	0.485	83.0	91.4	0.476
Ken Brett	8.0	7.8	0.507	79.9	78.4	0.505
Tommy Byrne	11.4	11.8	0.490	74.0	82.8	0.472
Tim Lollar	4.5	4.5	0.502	48.6	55.6	0.466
Les Sweetland	5.1	6.0	0.462	37.4	46.8	0.445
Chubby Dean	24.1	26.4	0.478	36.0	40.5	0.470
Brandon Backe	3.1	3.0	0.506	28.9	32.4	0.471
Micah Owings	4.8	4.5	0.516	27.8	30.3	0.479
Clint Hartung	7.4	7.4	0.499	27.5	30.9	0.471
Bill Bayne	2.5	2.8	0.471	24.2	28.1	0.463
Jack Bentley	9.5	10.0	0.486	24.4	27.2	0.473
Babe Ruth	277.7	146.2	0.655	112.6	110.3	0.505
Bob Chesnes	3.2	3.3	0.495	21.8	23.5	0.481

Notable Debuts

The two Rookie-of-the-Year winners in 2007 would both go on to win MVP awards in the future. I believe this was only the second time this has happened (the first was 2001, when Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki won the Rookie-of-the-Year awards).

The table below compares 2007 Rookie-of-the-Year award winners Ryan Braun and Dustin Pedroia.

Season	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Ryan J. Braun					Dustin Pedroia
2006						31	2.4	3.3	-0.8	-0.5
2007	113	14.3	14.0	-0.1	1.1	139	16.2	14.8	1.7	3.1
2008	151	22.0	17.7	3.2	5.0	157	20.7	18.6	2.4	4.2
2009	158	23.7	19.5	3.4	5.4	154	20.2	17.5	2.9	4.6
2010	157	22.6	18.4	3.1	5.0	75	10.4	8.2	2.4	3.2
2011	150	24.3	16.7	7.2	9.2	159	21.4	17.5	4.2	6.1
2012	154	21.9	18.0	3.1	5.1	141	17.1	17.2	0.5	2.2
2013	61	8.7	7.9	0.5	1.4	160	21.5	18.2	3.6	5.5
2014	135	18.6	17.4	0.2	1.9	135	16.2	16.7	-0.0	1.5
2015	140	17.1	16.3	-0.3	1.3	93	11.7	11.8	0.2	1.3
2016	135	17.1	16.8	0.0	1.6	154	20.9	17.4	3.1	4.9
2017	104	12.2	11.7	0.2	1.3	105	12.6	11.6	1.1	2.3
2018	125	14.4	11.4	2.4	3.6	3	0.3	0.4	-0.1	-0.1
2019	144	15.4	12.8	2.1	3.6	6	0.3	0.7	-0.5	-0.4
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	1,727	232.3	198.5	25.1	45.5	1,512	191.8	174.0	20.8	37.9

Last Hurrahs

Finally, 2007 was the final season for an unusually large number of players who put up Hall-of-Fame caliber numbers. This group debuted on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2013. I wrote an article about that ballot here.

Statistically, the two best players whose final season was 2007 were Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Unfortunately, neither of them will be entering the Hall of Fame anytime soon. Nevertheless, their career records, as measured by Player won-lost records, are presented in the table below.

Season	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Barry Bonds					Roger Clemens
1984						21	7.2	5.8	1.5	2.2
1985						15	5.8	4.6	1.3	2.0
1986	113	15.7	14.8	0.2	1.6	33	17.2	9.8	7.5	9.2
1987	150	19.0	16.8	1.1	2.7	36	18.1	11.8	6.7	8.6
1988	144	22.0	15.6	5.4	7.3	35	17.9	11.8	6.2	8.1
1989	159	21.1	19.1	0.6	2.5	35	14.7	12.7	2.3	4.1
1990	151	24.9	16.3	7.3	9.1	31	16.5	8.7	8.0	9.6
1991	153	24.7	15.6	8.3	10.1	35	16.7	11.2	5.7	7.5
1992	140	22.3	14.5	7.0	8.7	32	15.5	10.2	5.3	7.1
1993	159	27.5	15.4	11.1	13.3	29	12.7	12.6	0.2	1.7
1994	112	18.7	12.8	5.3	6.8	24	10.6	8.0	2.5	3.8
1995	144	25.0	17.1	6.9	9.0	23	8.8	6.7	2.1	3.2
1996	158	25.6	17.5	6.8	8.8	34	13.3	11.0	2.6	4.2
1997	159	25.4	17.1	7.7	9.7	34	18.6	9.7	9.0	10.9
1998	156	24.7	16.6	7.4	9.5	33	15.7	9.4	6.5	8.2
1999	102	15.8	10.8	4.4	5.7	30	13.1	12.4	1.0	2.6
2000	142	24.0	15.1	7.9	9.7	32	13.9	12.0	2.1	3.8
2001	153	28.3	15.2	12.1	14.4	33	13.9	8.9	5.3	6.8
2002	143	24.5	12.6	11.1	13.0	29	11.5	9.6	2.1	3.6
2003	130	21.2	11.4	8.9	10.5	33	13.4	11.0	2.6	4.3
2004	147	23.7	11.4	11.5	13.3	33	14.7	10.7	5.0	6.5
2005	14	1.8	1.3	0.4	0.6	32	14.1	9.8	5.1	6.5
2006	130	15.4	11.7	3.0	4.3	19	7.2	4.9	2.8	3.5
2007	126	15.3	12.0	2.8	4.0	18	5.9	5.5	0.6	1.3
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	2,985	466.8	310.6	137.3	174.8	709	316.9	228.6	94.0	129.3

While nobody who retired in 2007 was elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, and Bonds and Clemens have still not been elected as I write this (in 2019), two players who played their final games in 2007 have been elected to the Hall of Fame. The final table here compares these two players: Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza.

Season	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Craig Biggio					Mike Piazza
1988	50	2.8	3.3	-0.4	-0.1
1989	134	13.7	12.1	2.3	3.5
1990	150	16.6	16.7	-0.2	1.3
1991	149	14.3	14.2	0.9	2.2
1992	162	21.4	20.5	0.8	2.7	21	1.2	1.8	-0.6	-0.5
1993	155	21.3	19.0	2.5	4.5	149	18.1	13.5	4.9	6.4
1994	114	17.0	12.8	4.3	5.8	107	12.5	9.7	3.2	4.3
1995	141	22.4	17.0	5.7	7.7	112	14.6	10.2	4.7	5.9
1996	162	22.4	19.6	3.5	5.5	148	19.5	12.9	6.9	8.5
1997	162	23.9	18.6	5.7	7.7	152	18.1	13.4	5.0	6.5
1998	160	25.1	18.0	7.2	9.4	151	18.6	13.2	6.1	7.7
1999	160	22.8	20.7	2.1	4.2	141	17.9	14.0	4.6	6.1
2000	101	11.3	11.8	-0.2	0.8	136	17.9	11.8	6.4	7.9
2001	155	21.0	16.6	4.4	6.4	141	16.7	13.3	4.4	6.0
2002	145	17.1	17.4	0.1	1.9	135	13.6	13.2	1.4	2.8
2003	153	18.3	17.9	0.1	1.9	67	6.4	6.4	0.3	0.9
2004	156	17.8	19.2	-2.4	-0.6	129	11.2	11.9	-0.9	0.3
2005	155	20.3	17.5	2.7	4.3	113	9.7	10.6	-0.4	0.5
2006	145	15.4	16.8	-1.1	0.4	126	10.9	10.6	0.6	1.7
2007	141	12.8	16.1	-3.4	-2.1	83	6.6	7.1	-0.9	-0.0
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	2,850	357.7	325.7	34.5	67.4	1,911	213.7	173.6	45.7	65.1

Article last updated: September 30, 2019

Wins over positional average and replacement level are calculated using data only for the 2007 season. Positional averages for starting pitching and relief pitching are calculated using single-year data for all starting pitchers and all relief pitchers.

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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