2016 Season

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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2016 Season

The 2016 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

As a resident of the North Side of Chicago for 27 years before moving to Maine two months ago (June 2019), the next season in my look through the seasons for which I have calculated Player won-lost records is especially memorable. This article takes a look at the 2016 season as measured by Player won-lost records.

The Best of 2016

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Mike Trout	23.9	16.7	7.2	9.1	1	Mike Trout	23.9	16.7	7.2	9.1
2	Johnny Cueto	14.6	9.2	6.8	8.3	2	Mookie Betts	26.2	19.2	6.7	8.7
3	Clayton Kershaw	12.1	6.3	6.8	8.0	3	Johnny Cueto	14.6	9.2	6.8	8.3
4	Mookie Betts	26.2	19.2	6.7	8.7	4	Clayton Kershaw	12.1	6.3	6.8	8.0
5	Adrian Beltre	21.9	15.2	6.1	7.9	5	Adrian Beltre	21.9	15.2	6.1	7.9
6	Anthony Rizzo	20.4	13.4	5.9	7.5	6	Anthony Rizzo	20.4	13.4	5.9	7.5
7	Zach Britton	7.8	1.8	5.7	6.7	7	Kris Bryant	23.2	16.9	5.5	7.3
8	Kris Bryant	23.2	16.9	5.5	7.3	8	Josh Donaldson	21.3	15.7	5.1	6.9
9	Andrew Miller	7.8	2.3	5.2	6.3	9	Rick Porcello	13.9	9.1	5.1	6.8
10	Rick Porcello	13.9	9.1	5.1	6.8	10	Max Scherzer	16.7	13.2	4.8	6.7

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Mike Trout	24.3	16.4	7.9	9.8	1	Mike Trout	24.3	16.4	7.9	9.8
2	Clayton Kershaw	11.7	6.7	6.3	7.4	2	Kris Bryant	23.3	16.7	5.8	7.6
3	Kris Bryant	23.3	16.7	5.8	7.6	3	Clayton Kershaw	11.7	6.7	6.3	7.4
4	Madison Bumgarner	15.0	11.9	4.6	6.3	4	Mookie Betts	25.2	20.2	4.6	6.6
5	Mookie Betts	25.2	20.2	4.6	6.6	5	Madison Bumgarner	15.0	11.9	4.6	6.3
6	Freddie Freeman	19.3	14.0	4.2	5.7	6	Carlos Correa	21.9	18.3	4.1	6.0
7	Carlos Correa	21.9	18.3	4.1	6.0	7	David Ortiz	17.0	12.7	3.8	5.9
8	Daniel Murphy	20.4	15.7	4.1	5.8	8	Nelson R. Cruz	17.8	13.3	4.0	5.9
9	Justin Verlander	14.2	10.5	4.1	5.8	9	Justin Verlander	14.2	10.5	4.1	5.8
10	Noah Syndergaard	13.5	10.5	4.1	5.6	10	Daniel Murphy	20.4	15.7	4.1	5.8

I take a look at some of the most interesting players of 2016 at the end of this article.

2016 Postseason

My father was born in Cleveland and was a teenager when the Cleveland Indians last won the World Series.
I was born in Baltimore and was a teenager when the Baltimore Orioles last won the World Series.
My sons were both born on the North Side of Chicago and were teenagers in 2016.

Books have been written about this postseason, so let's just jump right to the numbers. The top performers in the 2016 postseason, as measured by Player won-lost records, are shown in the table below.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	pWORL
	2016 Postseason: Total

Corey Kluber	CLE	3.1	1.5	2.1
Cody Allen	CLE	1.9	0.5	1.6
Andrew Miller	CLE	2.0	0.7	1.5
Clayton Kershaw	LAN	2.4	1.4	1.4
Jon Lester	CHN	2.3	1.4	1.3
Kenley Jansen	LAN	1.2	0.4	1.1
Aroldis Chapman	CHN	1.5	0.7	1.0
Anthony Rizzo	CHN	2.3	1.6	0.8
Josh Donaldson	TOR	1.6	0.9	0.8
Madison Bumgarner	SFN	1.0	0.4	0.8

Top postseason players by round were as follows.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2016 World Series

Corey Kluber	CLE	1.4	0.7	0.8
Jake Arrieta	CHN	0.9	0.4	0.5
Addison Russell	CHN	1.2	0.8	0.4
Anthony Rizzo	CHN	1.0	0.5	0.4
Ben Zobrist	CHN	1.2	0.8	0.4

Going into Game 7 of the World Series, the choice of who might be chosen as World Series MVP was an interesting contrast between the two teams. If the Indians won Game 7, that would have meant that the Indians won all three games started by Corey Kluber, who would have almost certainly been MVP barring something very strange - which then almost happened. In contrast, the Cubs seemed to have a dozen viable candidates and it seemed most likely to come down to who came up biggest in Game 7. And, indeed, the World Series MVP was given to the player who had the game-winning RBI in Game 7, Ben Zobrist. As measured by net Player won-lost records (pWins minus pLosses), Player won-lost records agrees that the most valuable player of Game 7 was Ben Zobrist, although the overall MVP of the World Series was Corey Kluber, in spite of his relatively poor Game 7 performance, and the top player for the Cubs was Jake Arrieta, who won Games 2 and 6.

Now, back to earlier playoff rounds.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2016 Postseason: League Championship Series

Andrew Miller	CLE	1.1	0.1	0.9
Francisco Lindor	CLE	1.1	0.4	0.7
Cody Allen	CLE	0.7	0.1	0.6
Corey Kluber	CLE	1.1	0.5	0.5
Anthony Rizzo	CHN	1.1	0.6	0.5

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2016 Postseason: Division Series

Javier Baez	CHN	1.1	0.3	0.8
Troy Tulowitzki	TOR	1.0	0.2	0.8
Clayton Kershaw	LAN	1.2	0.5	0.7
Josh Donaldson	TOR	0.7	0.2	0.6
Jon Lester	CHN	0.7	0.2	0.5

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2016 Postseason: Wild Card Round

Madison Bumgarner	SFN	0.8	0.2	0.6
Conor Gillaspie	SFN	0.5	0.1	0.4
Josh Donaldson	TOR	0.3	0.1	0.2

Best of 2016 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 2016 in wins over positional average (WOPA) by factor were as follows.


Batting
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Mike Trout	16.8	10.6	6.2	1	Anthony Rizzo	17.3	10.6	6.3
2	Kris Bryant	17.4	11.4	5.6	2	Mike Trout	16.7	10.8	5.9
3	Freddie Freeman	15.4	10.5	4.5	3	David Ortiz	16.9	11.5	5.3
4	Daniel Murphy	15.4	10.5	4.5	4	Josh Donaldson	16.0	10.8	5.1
5	David Ortiz	16.5	11.9	4.5	5	Kris Bryant	17.1	11.7	5.0
6	Josh Donaldson	15.4	11.4	4.0	6	Mookie Betts	17.4	12.5	4.8
7	Nelson R. Cruz	15.1	11.0	4.0	7	Daniel Murphy	15.5	10.4	4.7
8	Miguel Cabrera	16.1	12.2	3.8	8	Adrian Beltre	15.7	11.0	4.6
9	Anthony Rizzo	16.0	11.8	3.8	9	Miguel Cabrera	16.2	12.1	4.1
10	Joey Votto	14.6	10.5	3.7	10	Freddie Freeman	15.1	10.7	4.0

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Baserunning
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Billy Hamilton	2.2	1.0	1.1	1	Billy Hamilton	2.3	0.9	1.3
2	Mookie Betts	1.8	1.0	0.7	2	Rajai Davis	1.5	0.8	0.7
3	Rajai Davis	1.5	0.8	0.7	3	Mookie Betts	1.8	1.0	0.7
4	Francisco Lindor	1.6	1.0	0.6	4	Francisco Lindor	1.6	0.9	0.7
5	Jose B. Reyes	1.0	0.4	0.6	5	Jose B. Reyes	1.0	0.4	0.6
6	Ian Desmond	1.6	1.0	0.6	6	Jose 'Lapara' Ramirez	1.6	1.0	0.6
7	Mike Trout	1.8	1.3	0.5	7	Danny Espinosa	1.2	0.5	0.6
8	Cameron Maybin	1.2	0.7	0.5	8	Leonys Martin	1.4	0.8	0.6
9	Josh Harrison	1.5	0.9	0.5	9	Jarrod Dyson	1.3	0.7	0.6
10	Jose 'Lapara' Ramirez	1.5	1.0	0.5	10	Howie Kendrick	1.2	0.7	0.5

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Pitching
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLoss	Net pWins
1	Clayton Kershaw	10.5	5.7	4.8	1	Clayton Kershaw	11.3	4.9	6.4
2	Zach Britton	6.2	3.0	3.3	2	Johnny Cueto	13.6	7.2	6.4
3	Andrew Miller	6.6	3.5	3.1	3	Zach Britton	7.5	1.7	5.8
4	Johnny Cueto	11.9	8.9	3.0	4	Andrew Miller	7.8	2.3	5.5
5	Rick Porcello	12.7	9.9	2.9	5	Rick Porcello	13.7	8.9	4.7
6	Kenley Jansen	5.8	2.9	2.9	6	Noah Syndergaard	12.8	8.5	4.3
7	Justin Verlander	13.5	10.7	2.8	7	Jon Lester	13.4	9.2	4.2
8	Corey Kluber	14.5	11.7	2.8	8	Masahiro Tanaka	12.4	8.3	4.1
9	Aaron Sanchez	11.6	8.9	2.7	9	Aaron Sanchez	12.2	8.2	4.0
10	Rich Hill	7.6	4.9	2.7	10	Cole Hamels	13.1	9.1	4.0

Fielding by Position


Fielding, P
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Kenta Maeda	0.6	0.1	0.4	1	Tanner Roark	0.5	0.1	0.4
2	Chad Green	0.5	0.1	0.4	2	Chad Green	0.5	0.1	0.4
3	Jeanmar Gomez	0.5	0.2	0.3	3	Martin Perez	0.7	0.3	0.3
4	Tanner Roark	0.5	0.2	0.2	4	Bartolo Colon	0.5	0.2	0.3
5	Luke Weaver	0.2	0.0	0.2	5	Luke Weaver	0.2	0.0	0.2


Fielding, C
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Salvador Perez	1.9	1.2	0.7	1	Buster Posey	1.7	1.1	0.7
2	Carlos E. Perez	1.3	0.9	0.4	2	Salvador Perez	1.9	1.2	0.7
3	Carlos Ruiz	0.8	0.5	0.4	3	Carlos E. Perez	1.3	0.9	0.5
4	Yasmani Grandal	1.6	1.3	0.3	4	Yasmani Grandal	1.7	1.2	0.4
5	James McCann	1.2	1.0	0.3	5	Roberto Perez	0.7	0.3	0.3


Fielding, 1B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Yonder Alonso	2.5	1.9	0.7	1	Miguel Cabrera	2.9	2.0	0.9
2	Miguel Cabrera	2.8	2.2	0.5	2	Yonder Alonso	2.6	1.8	0.7
3	Anthony Rizzo	2.2	1.8	0.5	3	Marwin Gonzalez	1.8	1.1	0.7
4	Marwin Gonzalez	1.6	1.3	0.4	4	Mitch Moreland	2.4	1.8	0.6
5	Wil Myers	2.5	2.1	0.4	5	Anthony Rizzo	2.2	1.7	0.5


Fielding, 2B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Joe Panik	4.8	3.6	1.2	1	Robinson Cano	5.4	4.2	1.2
2	Dustin Pedroia	5.0	4.1	0.9	2	Jonathan Schoop	6.0	5.1	0.9
3	Josh Harrison	5.1	4.5	0.6	3	Joe Panik	4.6	3.8	0.8
4	Robinson Cano	5.0	4.5	0.5	4	Neil Walker	4.2	3.4	0.7
5	Kolten Wong	3.0	2.6	0.4	5	Dustin Pedroia	4.9	4.3	0.6


Fielding, 3B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Adrian Beltre	4.8	3.7	1.1	1	Adrian Beltre	5.3	3.3	2.0
2	Kyle Seager	5.5	4.7	0.8	2	Justin Turner	3.7	2.6	1.1
3	Justin Turner	3.5	2.8	0.7	3	Adam Rosales	1.4	0.7	0.7
4	Adam Rosales	1.2	0.8	0.4	4	Kris Bryant	3.3	2.6	0.7
5	Aaron Hill	2.2	1.8	0.4	5	Ronald Torreyes	1.2	0.7	0.6


Fielding, SS
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Francisco Lindor	6.1	4.7	1.3	1	J.J. Hardy	4.7	3.2	1.5
2	Nick Ahmed	3.9	2.9	1.0	2	Francisco Lindor	6.1	4.7	1.4
3	J.J. Hardy	4.4	3.5	0.9	3	Addison Russell	5.5	4.5	1.0
4	Andrelton Simmons	5.0	4.3	0.7	4	Nick Ahmed	3.7	3.0	0.7
5	Brandon Crawford	5.7	5.0	0.7	5	Corey Seager	5.6	5.0	0.7


Fielding, LF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Adam Duvall	6.0	5.2	0.8	1	Yoenis Cespedes	3.2	2.0	1.2
2	Shane Robinson	1.2	0.6	0.6	2	Colby Rasmus	3.6	2.6	0.9
3	Colby Rasmus	3.4	2.9	0.5	3	Christian Yelich	5.5	4.8	0.8
4	Yoenis Cespedes	2.9	2.4	0.5	4	Adam Duvall	5.9	5.2	0.7
5	Andrew Toles	0.9	0.4	0.5	5	Chris Coghlan	1.4	0.7	0.7


Fielding, CF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Leonys Martin	5.8	4.9	0.9	1	Rajai Davis	3.6	2.0	1.6
2	Kevin Kiermaier	3.7	2.9	0.8	2	Ender Inciarte	4.8	3.6	1.2
3	Randal Grichuk	4.3	3.6	0.7	3	Randal Grichuk	4.5	3.4	1.1
4	Ender Inciarte	4.6	3.8	0.7	4	Paulo Orlando	2.0	1.0	1.0
5	Billy Hamilton	3.9	3.2	0.7	5	Leonys Martin	5.8	4.9	0.9


Fielding, RF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Adam C. Eaton	6.1	4.7	1.5	1	Adam C. Eaton	6.5	4.3	2.2
2	Jason Heyward	3.9	2.9	1.0	2	Jason Heyward	4.2	2.6	1.6
3	Mookie Betts	6.8	5.9	1.0	3	Mookie Betts	7.1	5.6	1.5
4	Kole Calhoun	6.9	6.3	0.7	4	Nomar Mazara	5.2	3.8	1.4
5	Josh Reddick	4.2	3.6	0.6	5	Bryce Harper	5.7	4.8	0.9

Best by Position

Next, we look at 2016 Major-League leaders by position. The figures shown here only include Player decisions earned while playing this particular position.


Catcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jonathan Lucroy	13.6	11.3	2.8	1	Jonathan Lucroy	14.1	10.8	3.7
2	Wilson Ramos	13.5	11.4	2.4	2	Evan Gattis	7.0	3.6	3.6
3	Evan Gattis	6.3	4.3	2.2	3	Wilson Ramos	13.5	11.4	2.6
4	Yasmani Grandal	11.8	10.1	2.1	4	David Ross	6.3	3.8	2.5
5	Gary Sanchez	4.8	3.4	1.6	5	Yasmani Grandal	11.9	9.9	2.4


First Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Miguel Cabrera	19.3	14.7	3.8	1	Anthony Rizzo	20.4	13.3	5.9
2	Freddie Freeman	19.1	14.2	3.8	2	Miguel Cabrera	19.5	14.6	4.1
3	Anthony Rizzo	19.2	14.5	3.4	3	Freddie Freeman	18.6	14.7	2.8
4	Joey Votto	18.0	14.1	2.8	4	Marwin Gonzalez	8.7	6.1	2.3
5	Paul Goldschmidt	17.6	14.2	2.3	5	Joey Votto	17.8	14.4	2.2


Second Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Daniel Murphy	17.7	13.6	3.5	1	Robinson Cano	22.3	16.9	5.0
2	Robinson Cano	21.4	17.8	3.2	2	Daniel Murphy	18.0	13.3	4.1
3	Jose Altuve	21.1	17.8	2.9	3	Dustin Pedroia	20.9	17.3	3.2
4	Brian Dozier	21.2	18.2	2.7	4	Jose Altuve	20.9	18.0	2.5
5	Ian Kinsler	20.9	18.5	2.0	5	Ben Zobrist	15.2	12.2	2.5


Third Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Josh Donaldson	18.7	14.9	3.3	1	Adrian Beltre	20.6	14.0	6.2
2	Kris Bryant	14.6	10.9	3.0	2	Josh Donaldson	19.2	14.4	4.3
3	Adrian Beltre	19.1	15.6	2.9	3	Justin Turner	19.4	14.6	3.8
4	Evan Longoria	18.8	16.0	2.3	4	Kris Bryant	14.8	10.8	3.4
5	Nolan Arenado	22.2	18.9	2.1	5	Nolan Arenado	22.5	18.6	2.9


Shortstop
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Carlos Correa	21.6	18.3	3.9	1	Francisco Lindor	20.9	16.7	4.8
2	Corey Seager	21.4	18.3	3.3	2	Elvis Andrus	19.7	15.8	4.4
3	Francisco Lindor	19.8	17.8	2.6	3	Addison Russell	20.1	16.0	4.2
4	Aledmys Diaz	14.8	12.6	2.2	4	Corey Seager	21.7	18.0	3.9
5	Trevor Story	13.3	11.5	1.8	5	Carlos Correa	21.4	18.5	3.5


Left Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Christian Yelich	17.6	15.0	2.3	1	Christian Yelich	18.0	15.0	3.3
2	Adam Duvall	18.5	16.0	2.2	2	Justin Upton	19.5	17.7	2.9
3	Kris Bryant	5.8	3.9	1.8	3	Yoenis Cespedes	9.7	7.8	2.7
4	Starling Marte	14.8	13.0	1.6	4	Jayson Werth	17.0	15.9	2.0
5	Michael Saunders	11.6	10.4	1.2	5	Carlos Gomez	4.8	3.5	1.9


Center Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Mike Trout	23.0	15.9	7.0	1	Mike Trout	23.0	15.9	7.1
2	Dexter Fowler	15.6	12.8	2.5	2	Dexter Fowler	16.3	12.2	3.7
3	Joc Pederson	13.5	11.5	1.7	3	Ian Desmond	17.7	14.5	3.2
4	Kevin Kiermaier	12.9	11.3	1.6	4	Rajai Davis	10.1	8.1	2.0
5	Yoenis Cespedes	8.2	6.5	1.6	5	Trea Turner	7.2	5.2	1.9


Right Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Mookie Betts	25.1	20.3	4.4	1	Mookie Betts	26.2	19.2	6.7
2	Bryce Harper	19.9	17.0	2.2	2	Bryce Harper	21.0	15.9	4.4
3	Kole Calhoun	21.1	19.1	1.6	3	Adam C. Eaton	17.1	13.3	3.6
4	Stephen Piscotty	18.7	16.4	1.6	4	Giancarlo Stanton	15.2	12.3	2.5
5	George Springer	21.9	20.0	1.5	5	Mark Trumbo	14.3	11.8	2.2


Starting Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Clayton Kershaw	10.6	6.0	5.0	1	Johnny Cueto	13.8	7.4	6.8
2	Justin Verlander	13.8	10.8	3.4	2	Clayton Kershaw	11.4	5.2	6.6
3	Johnny Cueto	12.1	9.1	3.3	3	Rick Porcello	13.8	9.1	5.1
4	Rick Porcello	12.8	10.0	3.2	4	Masahiro Tanaka	12.9	8.6	4.6
5	Corey Kluber	14.7	12.0	3.1	5	Aaron Sanchez	12.5	8.4	4.5
6	Aaron Sanchez	11.8	9.1	3.1	6	Noah Syndergaard	12.9	8.9	4.4
7	Madison Bumgarner	13.0	10.3	3.0	7	Cole Hamels	13.3	9.3	4.4
8	Rich Hill	7.7	5.0	2.9	8	Jon Lester	13.6	9.6	4.4
9	Chris Sale	14.0	11.6	2.7	9	Max Scherzer	15.4	11.6	4.3
10	Noah Syndergaard	12.1	9.7	2.7	10	Kyle Hendricks	12.5	8.6	4.2


Relief Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Zach Britton	6.4	3.2	2.9	1	Zach Britton	7.8	1.8	5.7
2	Andrew Miller	6.6	3.6	2.7	2	Andrew Miller	7.8	2.3	5.2
3	Kenley Jansen	5.8	3.0	2.6	3	Jeurys Familia	8.8	4.8	3.6
4	Mark Melancon	5.7	3.4	2.0	4	Kenley Jansen	6.2	2.6	3.3
5	Brad Ziegler	7.1	4.8	2.0	5	Mark Melancon	6.3	2.9	3.2
6	Seung-hwan Oh	6.0	3.8	1.9	6	Wade Davis	5.2	1.9	3.0
7	Wade Davis	4.5	2.6	1.7	7	Sam Dyson	7.4	4.2	2.9
8	Roberto Osuna	6.3	4.3	1.7	8	Roberto Osuna	6.9	3.8	2.8
9	Jeurys Familia	7.8	5.8	1.7	9	Seung-hwan Oh	6.3	3.5	2.6
10	Addison Reed	5.3	3.5	1.6	10	Addison Reed	5.8	3.0	2.6


Designated Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	David Ortiz	16.6	12.4	3.6	1	David Ortiz	17.1	11.9	4.7
2	Nelson R. Cruz	11.1	7.8	2.9	2	Nelson R. Cruz	11.2	7.7	3.1
3	Carlos Santana	9.0	7.4	1.2	3	Carlos Santana	9.5	6.9	2.2

Finally, here are the best at three oft-forgotten positions that can nevertheless matter: pitcher offense, pinch hitting, and pinch running.


Pitcher Offense
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jake Arrieta	1.4	1.4	0.7	1	Adam Wainwright	2.0	1.4	1.4
2	Adam Wainwright	1.5	1.9	0.7	2	Madison Bumgarner	1.7	1.8	0.9
3	Madison Bumgarner	1.5	1.9	0.7	3	Jake Arrieta	1.5	1.3	0.9


Pinch Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Derek Dietrich	1.2	0.5	0.8	1	Matt Adams	1.3	0.6	0.7
2	Hyun Soo Kim	0.9	0.2	0.7	2	Kolten Wong	1.0	0.4	0.7
3	Matthew Joyce	1.5	1.1	0.5	3	Hyun Soo Kim	0.8	0.3	0.6


Pinch Runner
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Adam Frazier	0.2	0.0	0.2	1	Delino DeShields Jr.	0.3	0.1	0.2
2	Michael A. Taylor	0.2	0.0	0.2	2	Ronald Torreyes	0.2	0.0	0.2
3	Ronald Torreyes	0.2	0.0	0.2	3	Terrance Gore	0.7	0.5	0.2

Noteworthy Players of 2016

Mike Trout

The 2016 season was the fifth season in a row in which the pre-award discussion in the online sabermetric community focused in equal parts on how Mike Trout was clearly the best player in the American League and how Mike Trout was likely to be robbed of the American League MVP award. For the second time in those five seasons, these concerns were unfounded and Mike Trout won the MVP award. As the tables above show, Player won-lost records agreed with the MVP voters (and sabermetic fans): Mike Trout was clearly the best and most valuable player in the American League in 2016.

Just for fun, here's how Mike Trout compares to Mickey Mantle in context-neutral Player won-lost records (eWins) through age 24 (Trout's 2016 season).

Age	Games	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA	eWORL	Games	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA	eWORL
	Mike Trout					Mickey Mantle
19	40	4.7	3.3	1.3	1.7	96	13.0	8.9	3.8	5.0
20	139	22.6	15.6	6.5	8.4	142	22.6	14.6	7.4	9.4
21	157	20.9	16.5	4.1	6.0	127	20.4	13.1	6.6	8.5
22	157	24.4	15.7	8.3	10.1	145	24.2	14.9	8.1	10.4
23	159	23.8	15.7	7.8	9.7	147	24.6	13.9	9.7	11.7
24	159	23.9	16.7	7.2	9.1	150	25.2	14.7	9.5	11.6
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
Total, thru Age 24	811	120.3	83.6	35.2	44.9	807	130.0	80.1	45.1	56.6

Trout wasn't quite at Mantle's level but there's no shame in being "not quite Mickey Mantle". All Mantle did at age 24 was win a Triple Crown (.353/52/130).

Kris Bryant vs. Anthony Rizzo

The winner of the National League MVP in 2016 was Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant. Going back to the first four tables in this article, Bryant was the best player in the National League as measured by eWins over replacement level (eWORL) and the best NL non-pitcher as measured by eWins over positional average (eWOPA). Shifting to pWins, which tie to team wins, however, Bryant slips to second among NL non-pitchers in both pWOPA and pWORL. The player who beat him in both is his long-time teammate and good friend - and the man with whom Bryant teamed up to record the final out of the 2016 World Series - Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo.

The next table compares Bryant and Rizzo ("Bryzzo") both in and out of context.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL

Kris Bryant	155	23.2	16.9	5.5	7.3	23.3	16.7	5.8	7.6
Anthony Rizzo	155	20.4	13.4	5.9	7.5	19.3	14.5	3.5	5.0

Historic Relief Pitcher Seasons

Over the last five months of 2016, Zach Britton pitched in 58 games, of which he finished 54, winning 1 game and saving 41. Overall, over those five months, he pitched 57 innings and allowed ONE earned run, good for a 0.16 ERA. That translated into a pWin winning percentage of over 0.800 for the 2016 season.

As impressive as Britton was, Andrew Miller was almost as good: 10-1, 12 saves, 1.45 ERA in 74.1 IP.

It turns out that both Britton and Miller had historic 2016 seasons, as measured by Player won-lost records. The next table shows the top 10 seasons in pWin winning percentage for players with at least 2.0 pWins in a season for whom I have calculated Player won-lost records.

Player	Season	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL
		Top pWin Pct. (min. 2 pWins)
Zach Britton	2016	7.8	1.8	0.811	5.7	6.7
Bob Milacki	1988	2.0	0.5	0.792	1.5	1.7
Kenley Jansen	2017	7.8	2.1	0.786	5.4	6.5
Karl Spooner	1954	2.2	0.6	0.784	1.6	1.8
Joe Nathan	2006	6.7	1.8	0.783	4.6	5.5
Koji Uehara	2013	5.1	1.5	0.775	3.4	4.2
Andrew Miller	2016	7.8	2.3	0.770	5.2	6.3
Mariano Rivera	1998	6.4	1.9	0.767	4.3	5.2
Zach Britton	2015	6.5	2.0	0.764	4.3	5.2
Tim Burke	1987	7.5	2.3	0.763	4.9	5.9

Zach Britton in 2016 was the first player with 2.0 or more pWins and a pWinning percentage over 0.800!

Noteworthy Retirements

Finally, the 2016 season was the final season in the careers of several noteworthy players. The two most significant players whose final season was 2016 were probably long-time AL East rivals Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz. Several years ago, I wrote an article comparing Rodriguez's and Ortiz's 2005 seasons, when they finished first and second in American League MVP voting. Their careers, as measured by Player won-lost records, are compared in the next table.

Season	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Alex Rodriguez					David Ortiz
1994	17	0.9	2.0	-1.0	-0.9
1995	48	3.8	4.2	-0.1	0.3
1996	146	22.5	16.9	6.6	8.5
1997	141	20.0	17.2	4.0	5.7	15	1.0	1.2	-0.3	-0.2
1998	161	23.7	20.4	4.6	6.8	86	7.0	7.8	-1.5	-0.7
1999	129	18.3	16.4	2.7	4.4	10	0.2	0.7	-0.5	-0.4
2000	148	23.5	15.1	9.3	11.1	128	9.6	9.8	-0.8	0.4
2001	162	22.8	17.6	6.1	8.2	89	7.7	7.1	0.3	1.4
2002	162	21.8	18.4	4.2	6.3	125	10.2	8.8	1.0	2.3
2003	161	21.2	18.3	3.6	5.6	128	13.8	10.7	2.6	4.1
2004	155	21.1	15.4	5.3	7.2	150	17.2	12.6	4.0	6.0
2005	162	25.5	17.2	8.2	10.1	159	20.2	11.7	7.7	9.8
2006	154	20.5	17.0	3.1	4.8	151	19.1	11.4	6.8	8.8
2007	158	25.3	16.3	8.8	10.6	149	18.3	13.0	4.3	6.3
2008	138	18.2	15.9	2.1	3.7	109	11.9	8.3	3.1	4.5
2009	124	17.7	13.0	4.7	6.2	150	13.9	11.2	2.1	3.8
2010	137	18.8	14.4	4.4	6.0	145	16.0	11.0	4.6	6.4
2011	99	12.1	9.9	2.4	3.5	145	14.6	11.4	2.6	4.3
2012	122	13.0	12.1	0.6	2.0	90	9.7	6.4	3.1	4.2
2013	44	4.5	4.3	0.2	0.7	137	14.8	10.7	4.2	5.9
2014						142	14.0	11.2	2.3	3.9
2015	151	14.4	11.5	2.3	4.1	146	14.3	11.7	1.9	3.7
2016	65	4.4	5.4	-1.2	-0.5	151	17.4	12.4	4.5	6.5
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	2,784	373.8	298.7	80.8	114.1	2,405	250.9	189.0	51.8	80.9

In Memoriam: Jose Fernandez

Finally, one other noteworthy event of 2016 warrants mention. In addition to the retirements of several players at the end of long and illustrious careeers, 2016 was the final season for one player for a far more tragic reason. On September 25, 2016, Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez died tragically at the age of 24. The next table presents Jose Fernandez's career as evaluated by Player won-lost records.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
2013	MIA	20	28	11.7	7.6	6.1	4.9
2014	MIA	21	8	4.6	3.4	2.0	1.5
2015	MIA	22	11	4.0	2.6	2.0	1.6
2016	MIA	23	30	13.2	9.9	5.7	4.2
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			77	33.5	23.5	15.8	12.2
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			77	33.5	23.5	15.8	12.2

Pitcher careers are much harder to forecast than position player careers, especially very young pitchers. The next table shows the 10 players most similar to Jose Fernandez in career value through age 23 (2016 was Fernandez's "age-23" season even though he turned 24 shortly before his untimely death), as measured by Player won-lost records.

Player	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Bat	Run	Pitch	Field

		Most Similar Players to Jose Fernandez in Value
						Wins over Baseline
Jose D. Fernandez	77	33.5	23.5	12.2	15.8	-1.1	-0.0	8.0	-0.0
Roger Clemens	69	30.2	20.2	10.3	13.4	0.0	0.0	7.1	-0.2
Mark Prior	72	31.0	24.2	8.8	12.2	-1.2	-0.0	6.2	-0.1
Madison Bumgarner	122	47.7	42.6	8.9	14.0	-2.9	-0.1	6.6	-0.5
Clayton Kershaw	118	47.8	40.1	11.0	16.1	-3.1	0.0	9.6	0.3
Dontrelle Willis	109	42.3	33.9	11.3	15.9	-1.0	-0.0	5.0	0.3
Bret Saberhagen	134	48.8	36.0	13.4	18.8	0.0	-0.0	9.4	0.6
Carlos Zambrano	101	35.9	32.4	6.4	10.6	-1.7	-0.0	5.3	0.4
Felix Hernandez	138	56.5	45.1	12.5	19.2	0.4	-0.0	7.9	0.5
Ismael Valdez	117	40.0	36.4	6.4	11.2	-3.2	-0.1	7.0	0.4
Vida Blue	122	51.0	42.5	10.0	15.6	-2.0	-0.1	5.1	0.3

It's hard to say exactly what Jose Fernandez's career might have looked like had he lived longer. There are no Hall-of-Famers on that list (yet), but 5 of the 10 players won a combined 14 Cy Young awards. Of course, the greatest tragedy of Jose Fernandez's death was not what his major-league career might have looked like but what the rest of his life might have been.

Article last updated: August 27, 2019

Wins over positional average and replacement level are calculated using data only for the 2016 season. Positional averages for starting pitching and relief pitching are calculated using single-year data for all starting pitchers and all relief pitchers.

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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