1978 Season

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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1978 Season

The 1978 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

Next in my continuing series of looking at individual seasons through the prism of Player won-lost records is the 1978 season, which had a regular season so good they decided to play an extra game.

The Best of 1978

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Jim Rice	26.5	16.9	8.9	11.0	1	Jim Rice	26.5	16.9	8.9	11.0
2	Ron Guidry	18.5	9.6	8.8	10.5	2	Ron Guidry	18.5	9.6	8.8	10.5
3	Amos Otis	23.2	15.0	8.0	9.8	3	Amos Otis	23.2	15.0	8.0	9.8
4	Mike Caldwell	17.8	11.3	6.6	8.3	4	Mike Caldwell	17.8	11.3	6.6	8.3
5	Carlton Fisk	18.4	13.0	6.0	7.5	5	Dave Winfield	25.1	18.2	5.8	7.8
6	Dave Winfield	25.1	18.2	5.8	7.8	6	George Foster	25.2	18.4	5.5	7.6
7	George Foster	25.2	18.4	5.5	7.6	7	Carlton Fisk	18.4	13.0	6.0	7.5
8	Steve Garvey	22.5	15.8	5.2	7.0	8	Steve Garvey	22.5	15.8	5.2	7.0
9	Bob Knepper	16.7	12.6	4.8	6.4	9	Bob Knepper	16.7	12.6	4.8	6.4
10	Gaylord Perry	16.0	12.0	4.7	6.3	10	Phil Niekro	21.9	18.9	4.2	6.4

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Ron Guidry	17.7	10.5	7.1	8.8	1	Ron Guidry	17.7	10.5	7.1	8.8
2	Jim Rice	25.0	18.4	5.8	8.0	2	Jim Rice	25.0	18.4	5.8	8.0
3	Amos Otis	21.8	16.4	5.3	7.1	3	Amos Otis	21.8	16.4	5.3	7.1
4	Mike Caldwell	17.1	12.1	5.0	6.8	4	Phil Niekro	22.0	18.9	4.6	6.8
5	Phil Niekro	22.0	18.9	4.6	6.8	5	Mike Caldwell	17.1	12.1	5.0	6.8
6	Carlton Fisk	17.7	13.8	4.5	6.0	6	Roy Smalley III	22.0	19.4	4.3	6.2
7	Roy Smalley III	22.0	19.4	4.3	6.2	7	Dave Parker	24.8	19.0	4.1	6.1
8	Jon Matlack	16.3	12.1	4.1	5.8	8	Carlton Fisk	17.7	13.8	4.5	6.0
9	Dave Parker	24.8	19.0	4.1	6.1	9	Jon Matlack	16.3	12.1	4.1	5.8
10	Larry Hisle	19.8	15.4	4.0	5.8	10	Larry Hisle	19.8	15.4	4.0	5.8

I take a look at some of the most interesting players of 1978 at the end of this article.

1978 Postseason

The 1978 postseason saw the same four division winners as 1977: New York, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles; the same two pennant winners: New York and Los Angeles; and the same World Series winner: the Yankees. In fact, the NLCS and World Series lasted the same number of games as in 1977; at least the Yankees beat the Royals in four games instead of five (as they had the two previous seasons) or things might have been really boring.

The postseason stars for the Yankees this season included their biggest regular-season star: Ron Guidry, along with Thurman Munson, Goose Gossage and others. Davey Lopes and Steve Carlton had strong postseasons in losing causes.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	pWORL
	1978 Postseason: Total

Davey Lopes	LAN	2.2	1.4	1.1
Ron Guidry	NYA	1.4	0.6	1.0
Steve Carlton	PHI	1.2	0.3	1.0
Thurman Munson	NYA	1.7	1.0	0.9
Rich Gossage	NYA	0.9	0.2	0.8
Roy White	NYA	1.7	1.1	0.7
Reggie Jackson	NYA	1.2	0.6	0.7
Tommy John	LAN	1.3	0.8	0.6
Brian Doyle	NYA	0.9	0.4	0.5
Amos Otis	KCA	0.8	0.4	0.5

Top postseason players by round were as follows.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	1978 World Series

Roy White	NYA	1.2	0.7	0.5
Ron Guidry	NYA	0.7	0.3	0.4
Davey Lopes	LAN	1.3	0.9	0.4
Bucky Dent	NYA	1.0	0.6	0.4
Brian Doyle	NYA	0.6	0.3	0.3

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	1978 Postseason: League Championship Series

Steve Carlton	PHI	1.2	0.3	0.8
Davey Lopes	LAN	0.9	0.4	0.5
Rich Gossage	NYA	0.6	0.1	0.5
Amos Otis	KCA	0.8	0.4	0.5
Bill E. Russell	LAN	0.9	0.4	0.5

Best of 1978 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 1978 in wins over positional average (WOPA) by factor were as follows.


Batting
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Jim Rice	17.7	12.5	5.3	1	Jim Rice	19.0	11.2	7.8
2	Greg Luzinski	16.3	10.8	5.0	2	Steve Garvey	18.5	11.9	6.2
3	Jeff Burroughs	15.0	9.9	4.7	3	Greg Luzinski	16.8	10.3	6.1
4	George Foster	16.8	11.9	4.4	4	George Foster	17.6	11.1	6.1
5	Dave Parker	15.1	10.3	4.3	5	Amos Otis	15.3	9.9	5.4
6	Andre Thornton	15.4	11.2	4.2	6	Dave Parker	15.5	9.9	5.3
7	Jack Clark	15.3	10.8	4.1	7	Eddie Murray	17.2	12.0	5.2
8	Ken Singleton	14.0	9.9	4.1	8	Reggie Jackson	14.2	9.2	5.0
9	Reggie Smith	12.5	8.2	4.1	9	Dave Winfield	16.1	10.7	5.0
10	Larry Hisle	14.6	10.6	3.9	10	Larry Hisle	15.1	10.1	5.0

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Baserunning
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Ron LeFlore	3.1	1.7	1.4	1	Ron LeFlore	3.1	1.7	1.4
2	Davey Lopes	2.5	1.2	1.3	2	Terry Puhl	2.7	1.3	1.3
3	Terry Puhl	2.5	1.4	1.1	3	Davey Lopes	2.5	1.2	1.2
4	Julio Cruz	2.4	1.4	1.0	4	Bump Wills	2.3	1.3	1.1
5	Rod Carew	1.8	1.0	0.8	5	Ivan DeJesus, Sr.	2.2	1.2	1.0
6	Bump Wills	2.2	1.4	0.8	6	Paul Molitor	1.7	0.9	0.8
7	Ivan DeJesus, Sr.	2.1	1.3	0.8	7	Julio Cruz	2.3	1.5	0.8
8	Mickey Rivers	1.8	1.1	0.7	8	Larry Bowa	2.0	1.2	0.8
9	George Brett	1.4	0.7	0.7	9	Garry Maddox	2.1	1.2	0.8
10	Bert Campaneris	1.1	0.4	0.6	10	Mickey Rivers	1.9	1.1	0.8

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Pitching
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLoss	Net pWins
1	Ron Guidry	16.6	10.7	5.9	1	Ron Guidry	18.1	9.2	8.9
2	Mike Caldwell	16.0	12.2	3.8	2	Mike Caldwell	17.2	11.0	6.2
3	Jon Matlack	15.4	11.9	3.6	3	Gaylord Perry	14.9	10.1	4.8
4	Phil Niekro	19.4	16.1	3.2	4	Bob Knepper	15.4	10.7	4.7
5	Lary Sorensen	14.9	11.8	3.1	5	Jim Palmer	17.0	12.8	4.2
6	Bob Knepper	14.4	11.6	2.8	6	Fergie Jenkins	14.4	10.2	4.1
7	Bert Blyleven	13.6	11.2	2.4	7	Phil Niekro	19.7	15.8	3.8
8	Craig Swan	11.1	8.7	2.4	8	Frank Tanana	15.1	11.4	3.8
9	Rich Gossage	10.2	7.8	2.4	9	Dennis Eckersley	16.0	12.3	3.7
10	Jim Palmer	16.0	13.7	2.3	10	Jon Matlack	15.5	11.8	3.7

Fielding by Position


Fielding, P
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Larry Gura	0.7	0.2	0.4	1	Larry Gura	0.8	0.2	0.6
2	Mike Caldwell	0.6	0.3	0.3	2	Mike Caldwell	0.7	0.3	0.4
3	Fergie Jenkins	0.4	0.1	0.3	3	Pete Vuckovich	0.7	0.4	0.4
4	Pedro Borbon Sr.	0.3	0.1	0.3	4	Dennis Eckersley	0.5	0.2	0.3
5	Bob Knepper	0.5	0.3	0.3	5	Bob Stanley	0.4	0.1	0.3


Fielding, C
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Rick Dempsey	2.6	1.9	0.7	1	John Stearns	2.7	1.9	0.8
2	John Stearns	2.6	2.0	0.6	2	Jim Sundberg	2.6	1.8	0.8
3	Jim Sundberg	2.5	1.9	0.6	3	Rick Dempsey	2.6	1.9	0.7
4	Carlton Fisk	2.3	1.8	0.5	4	Steve Yeager	1.4	0.9	0.6
5	Gary Carter	2.5	2.1	0.5	5	Gary Carter	2.5	2.1	0.5


Fielding, 1B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Jason D. Thompson	3.1	2.1	1.0	1	Jason D. Thompson	3.1	2.0	1.1
2	Chris Chambliss	2.5	2.1	0.4	2	Broderick Perkins	1.3	0.7	0.6
3	Ron D. Jackson	1.4	1.0	0.4	3	Bob Watson	2.4	1.8	0.6
4	Bob Watson	2.3	1.9	0.3	4	Ron D. Jackson	1.5	0.9	0.5
5	Dan Driessen	2.6	2.3	0.3	5	Carl Yastrzemski	1.4	0.9	0.5


Fielding, 2B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Bob Randall	3.7	2.8	0.9	1	Frank White	5.3	3.7	1.5
2	Frank White	4.9	4.1	0.8	2	Lou Whitaker	5.5	4.2	1.3
3	Lou Whitaker	5.2	4.5	0.7	3	Ted Sizemore	4.4	3.4	1.1
4	Ted Sizemore	4.2	3.6	0.5	4	Jerry Remy	5.9	5.0	0.9
5	Manny Trillo	6.4	5.9	0.5	5	Bob Randall	3.6	2.8	0.8


Fielding, 3B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Buddy Bell	5.0	3.9	1.1	1	Sal Bando	5.4	4.5	0.9
2	Eric Soderholm	4.1	3.6	0.6	2	Graig Nettles	5.3	4.5	0.9
3	Darrell Evans	5.6	5.1	0.5	3	Mike Cubbage	4.0	3.2	0.8
4	Ken Reitz	4.4	4.0	0.4	4	Darrell Evans	5.7	5.0	0.7
5	Mike Schmidt	5.1	4.7	0.4	5	Phil Garner	3.0	2.2	0.7


Fielding, SS
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Larry Bowa	6.4	5.0	1.3	1	Mark Belanger	5.8	4.4	1.4
2	Alan Trammell	6.0	5.2	0.8	2	Larry Bowa	6.4	5.0	1.4
3	Rick Burleson	6.6	5.8	0.8	3	Bill E. Russell	8.2	6.8	1.4
4	Mark Belanger	5.5	4.7	0.8	4	Chris Speier	6.6	5.3	1.3
5	Garry Templeton	8.1	7.3	0.7	5	Rick Burleson	6.8	5.6	1.2


Fielding, LF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Joe Rudi	5.4	3.9	1.5	1	Warren Cromartie	9.9	8.0	1.9
2	Warren Cromartie	9.6	8.3	1.4	2	Dave Kingman	4.9	3.1	1.8
3	Dusty Baker	6.5	5.4	1.1	3	Joe Rudi	5.3	4.0	1.4
4	Johnny Grubb	5.0	4.0	1.1	4	Dusty Baker	6.6	5.3	1.3
5	Steve Henderson	8.2	7.3	0.9	5	Jim Rice	5.5	4.3	1.2


Fielding, CF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Amos Otis	6.2	4.7	1.5	1	Amos Otis	6.7	4.2	2.5
2	Andre Dawson	6.7	5.3	1.4	2	Andre Dawson	6.7	5.4	1.3
3	Rick Bosetti	5.9	5.2	0.7	3	Derrel Thomas	2.1	1.3	0.8
4	Lee Mazzilli	5.1	4.4	0.6	4	Larry Harlow	4.8	4.1	0.7
5	Tony Armas Sr.	1.6	1.1	0.6	5	Tony Armas Sr.	1.7	1.0	0.7


Fielding, RF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Ellis Valentine	7.4	5.3	2.1	1	Al Cowens	6.1	4.0	2.0
2	Dwight Evans	6.5	5.6	0.9	2	Dwight Evans	7.0	5.0	2.0
3	Sixto Lezcano	6.4	5.5	0.9	3	Ellis Valentine	7.2	5.5	1.8
4	Al Cowens	5.5	4.6	0.8	4	Sixto Lezcano	6.5	5.4	1.1
5	Joel Youngblood	1.8	1.1	0.8	5	Dave Winfield	4.3	3.1	1.1

Best by Position

Next, we look at 1978 Major-League leaders by position. The figures shown here only include Player decisions earned while playing this particular position.


Catcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Carlton Fisk	17.2	13.7	4.2	1	Carlton Fisk	18.2	12.8	6.1
2	Gary Carter	16.5	13.5	3.2	2	Darrell Porter	14.8	12.7	2.7
3	Ted Simmons	14.1	12.0	2.3	3	John Stearns	16.5	14.1	2.6
4	Darrell Porter	14.6	12.9	2.3	4	Johnny Bench	10.4	8.2	2.4
5	Johnny Bench	10.3	8.3	2.2	5	Gary Carter	15.9	14.1	2.1


First Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Andre Thornton	18.9	14.3	3.7	1	Steve Garvey	22.5	15.8	5.2
2	Jason D. Thompson	18.6	14.4	3.3	2	Eddie Murray	19.9	14.7	4.2
3	Steve Garvey	21.3	17.0	2.7	3	Jason D. Thompson	18.5	14.5	3.1
4	Willie Stargell	13.0	9.7	2.3	4	Willie Stargell	13.3	9.4	3.0
5	Eddie Murray	18.9	15.7	2.1	5	Chris Chambliss	17.6	14.0	2.8


Second Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Bill Madlock	16.5	13.8	3.0	1	Willie Randolph	17.7	15.0	3.6
2	Davey Lopes	19.8	17.6	2.7	2	Joe L. Morgan	16.3	13.3	3.5
3	Willie Randolph	17.1	15.7	2.3	3	Frank White	14.9	12.1	3.4
4	Frank White	14.0	13.0	1.7	4	Lou Whitaker	17.2	14.8	3.2
5	Joe L. Morgan	15.4	14.2	1.6	5	Davey Lopes	20.0	17.4	3.1


Third Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Doug DeCinces	17.1	13.8	3.1	1	Sal Bando	18.7	14.7	3.8
2	Ron Cey	20.7	17.0	3.0	2	Graig Nettles	20.7	16.7	3.8
3	Mike Schmidt	19.9	16.3	2.9	3	Doug DeCinces	17.3	13.6	3.5
4	Sal Bando	17.8	15.7	1.9	4	Mike Schmidt	20.1	16.2	3.3
5	Darrell Evans	20.3	17.7	1.9	5	Pete Rose Sr.	19.5	16.3	2.6


Shortstop
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Roy Smalley III	21.8	19.5	3.9	1	Larry Bowa	20.3	18.4	3.2
2	Larry Bowa	20.0	18.7	2.5	2	Robin Yount	18.3	16.3	3.2
3	Toby Harrah	6.8	5.2	2.0	3	Dave Concepcion	20.5	18.8	2.9
4	Dave Concepcion	19.9	19.3	1.8	4	Bucky Dent	13.0	11.3	2.6
5	Robin Yount	17.5	17.1	1.7	5	Toby Harrah	7.1	4.9	2.6


Left Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jim Rice	17.2	13.1	3.5	1	Jim Rice	18.9	13.1	7.0
2	Greg Luzinski	22.4	17.7	3.4	2	George Foster	23.8	18.8	4.8
3	Dave Kingman	15.4	11.7	2.8	3	Greg Luzinski	22.5	17.7	3.7
4	Jeff Burroughs	21.7	17.9	2.7	4	Ben Oglivie	11.0	8.0	3.2
5	George Foster	22.7	18.8	2.6	5	Dave Kingman	15.5	11.7	3.0


Center Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Amos Otis	21.4	16.4	4.8	1	Amos Otis	23.0	14.7	8.2
2	Gorman Thomas	16.5	13.5	2.9	2	Fred Lynn	20.3	16.1	4.0
3	Andre Dawson	22.1	18.8	2.6	3	Dave Winfield	12.4	8.8	3.4
4	Ron LeFlore	22.5	19.8	2.5	4	Andre Dawson	22.4	18.6	3.1
5	George Hendrick	14.9	12.7	1.8	5	Gorman Thomas	16.2	13.8	2.3


Right Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Dave Parker	24.7	19.1	4.1	1	Dave Parker	24.8	19.0	4.4
2	Jack Clark	23.7	18.8	3.2	2	Reggie Smith	18.4	13.9	3.3
3	Reggie Smith	18.3	14.0	3.1	3	Richie Zisk	7.8	4.6	2.8
4	Sixto Lezcano	17.6	14.0	2.8	4	Ken Singleton	17.8	14.0	2.8
5	Ellis Valentine	21.2	16.8	2.8	5	Reggie Jackson	15.3	11.7	2.8


Starting Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Ron Guidry	17.0	11.1	5.8	1	Ron Guidry	18.5	9.6	8.8
2	Mike Caldwell	16.3	12.3	4.0	2	Mike Caldwell	17.6	11.0	6.5
3	Phil Niekro	19.6	16.4	3.2	3	Gaylord Perry	15.3	10.4	4.9
4	Jon Matlack	15.6	12.4	3.2	4	Bob Knepper	15.9	11.0	4.9
5	Bob Knepper	15.0	11.8	3.1	5	Fergie Jenkins	14.4	10.0	4.4
6	Lary Sorensen	15.1	12.1	3.0	6	Jim Palmer	17.5	13.3	4.2
7	Craig Swan	11.3	8.8	2.5	7	Dennis Eckersley	16.5	12.5	4.0
8	Fergie Jenkins	13.4	10.9	2.4	8	Burt Hooton	13.8	10.0	3.8
9	Bert Blyleven	14.1	11.7	2.4	9	Frank Tanana	15.3	11.7	3.6
10	Vida Blue	14.4	12.0	2.4	10	Phil Niekro	19.8	16.2	3.6


Relief Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Rollie Fingers	9.0	6.5	2.4	1	Kent Tekulve	9.3	5.8	3.5
2	Kent Tekulve	8.6	6.5	2.1	2	Doug Bair	8.7	5.7	3.1
3	Rich Gossage	10.3	8.3	2.1	3	Terry Forster	6.1	3.1	3.0
4	John Hiller	6.5	5.0	1.6	4	John Hiller	7.2	4.4	2.8
5	Doug Bair	7.9	6.5	1.4	5	Rollie Fingers	9.1	6.4	2.8
6	Gene Garber	7.1	5.7	1.4	6	Bob Stanley	6.2	3.9	2.4
7	Bob Stanley	5.7	4.4	1.3	7	Don Stanhouse	8.0	5.8	2.2
8	Terry Forster	5.1	4.0	1.1	8	Ron Reed	5.2	3.1	2.1
9	Warren Brusstar	3.6	2.5	1.1	9	Bruce Sutter	8.6	6.6	2.0
10	Ron Reed	4.7	3.6	1.1	10	Dave LaRoche	8.4	6.5	1.9


Designated Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Rico Carty	13.6	10.7	2.8	1	Gary Alexander	7.9	5.4	2.4
2	Gary Alexander	7.2	6.1	1.0	2	Lee May	13.6	11.2	2.2
3	Jim Rice	4.8	3.8	0.9	3	Larry Hisle	6.2	3.9	2.1

Finally, here are the best at three oft-forgotten positions that can nevertheless matter: pitcher offense, pinch hitting, and pinch running.


Pitcher Offense
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Steve Carlton	1.7	1.7	0.8	1	Steve Carlton	1.7	1.7	0.9
2	Randy Lerch	1.2	1.2	0.6	2	Randy Lerch	1.4	1.0	0.9
3	Dave A. Roberts	1.0	0.9	0.5	3	Dave A. Roberts	1.1	0.8	0.7


Pinch Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Mike Ivie	2.8	1.3	1.5	1	Mike Ivie	2.8	1.3	1.5
2	Jerry Turner	2.7	1.4	1.3	2	Jerry Turner	2.7	1.3	1.4
3	Lee Lacy	2.1	0.9	1.2	3	Jose Cardenal	2.1	0.9	1.2


Pinch Runner
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Bud Harrelson	0.3	0.0	0.2	1	Bud Harrelson	0.3	0.1	0.2
2	Bobby Thompson	0.3	0.1	0.2	2	Bobby Thompson	0.3	0.1	0.2
3	Barry Bonnell	0.3	0.1	0.2	3	Dave McKay	0.1	0.0	0.1

Noteworthy Players of 1978

AL MVP: Jim Rice vs. Ron Guidry

The 1978 season saw two American League players put up historical traditional numbers. Ron Guidry was the unanimous choice as AL Cy Young winner for posting a 25-3 record and a 1.74 ERA in 273.2 innings with 248 strikeouts. He finished second in AL MVP voting to Jim Rice whose Triple Crown stats were .315/46/139. Rice was also the first player to rack up 400 total bases (Rice had 406) since Hank Aaron in 1959 and the first American League player to do so since Joe DiMaggio in 1937.

The sabermetric consensus has generally been that Ron Guidry was better than Jim Rice in 1978 (and that Jim Rice is overrated in general).

Using Player won-lost records, you could make a case for either one of them. Rice beats Guidry in pWins over either positional average or replacement level (pWOPA and pWORL) but Guidry beats Rice in eWOPA and eWORL (by a slightly larger margin). Their seasons are compared in the next table.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Ron Guidry	37	18.5	9.6	8.8	10.5	17.7	10.5	7.1	8.8
Jim Rice	163	26.5	16.9	8.9	11.0	25.0	18.4	5.8	8.0

Taking a weighted average of pWORL and eWORL, Rice and Guidry end up with the same value using weights of 62.0% for pWORL and 38.0% for eWORL. Giving a higher weight than that to pWORL would favor Rice; giving a higher weight than that to eWORL would favor Guidry. Who had the better season? That is left as an exercise for the reader.

Mike Caldwell

Mike Caldwell entered the 1978 season having spent seven seasons in the major leagues with four different teams compiling a pitcher won-lost record of 40-58 with 16 saves and a 4.02 ERA. Seemingly inexplicably, Caldwell pitched 293.1 IP in 1978, including 23 complete games (4 more than he had in the previous seven seasons combined) and 6 shutouts (1 more than he had in the previous seven seasons combined), with an ERA of 2.36. He remained solid, if not quite that good, in 1979 (16-6, 3.29 in 235 IP, 16 CG, 4 ShO), slipped back to mediocre in 1980 and hung around for four more seasons as a somewhat below-average starting pitcher. He did last long enough to appear for the Brewers in their only World Series appearance, where he pitched quite well (3 games, 2 starts, 2-0, 2.04 ERA in 17.2 IP).

The next table presents Mike Caldwell's career in three acts: Act I, journeyman; Act II, ace; Act III, past his prime.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
Act I: Journeyman (1971 - 1977)	258	46.1	51.1	0.475	-2.8	3.5	46.9	50.2	0.483	-0.7	5.6
Act II: Ace (1978 - 1979)	67	31.1	20.7	0.601	10.5	13.7	29.4	22.4	0.568	7.1	10.2
Act III: Past His Prime (1980 - 1984)	151	50.4	55.4	0.477	-4.2	2.3	49.6	56.3	0.468	-5.9	0.6
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
Career	476	127.7	127.1	0.501	3.5	19.6	125.9	128.9	0.494	0.4	16.5

Amos Otis

One of the best things about creating a set of player statistics is discovering players who were unexpectedly good based on them. One such player shows up in third place in each of the first four tables of this article, Kansas City Royals center fielder Amos Otis.

Player won-lost records love Amos Otis's fielding. In fact, as measured by Player won-lost records, Amos Otis is arguably the finest fielding center fielder in major-league history.


Top Center Fielders, Net Fielding eWins
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins
1	Amos Otis	72.3	64.2	8.1
2	Willie Davis	85.6	77.6	8.0
3	Andruw Jones	71.2	63.5	7.7
4	Curt Flood	65.4	57.9	7.5
5	Duke Snider	51.2	44.5	6.8
6	Paul Blair	58.1	51.7	6.3
7	Jim Edmonds	69.1	62.9	6.3
8	Max Carey	75.5	69.4	6.1
9	Vince DiMaggio	51.7	46.0	5.6
10	Mickey Mantle	63.4	58.1	5.3

Amos Otis's career record, as measured by Player won-lost records, is shown in the next table.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Amos Otis Basic Player Won-Lost Records
										Value Decomposition
1967	NYN	20	19	1.2	2.0	-0.9	-0.8	1.4	1.7	-0.3	-0.1
1969	NYN	22	48	2.2	2.6	-0.5	-0.2	2.1	2.8	-0.7	-0.5
1970	KCA	23	159	19.2	18.4	-0.3	1.6	20.2	17.4	1.6	3.5
1971	KCA	24	147	23.5	18.3	4.1	6.2	22.9	18.9	3.0	5.1
1972	KCA	25	143	18.8	18.1	-0.3	1.5	19.3	17.7	0.6	2.4
1973	KCA	26	148	21.7	17.2	4.0	5.9	20.9	18.0	2.3	4.3
1974	KCA	27	146	17.8	16.6	0.6	2.2	18.2	16.3	1.4	3.0
1975	KCA	28	132	17.0	13.8	2.9	4.3	16.3	14.5	1.5	2.9
1976	KCA	29	153	20.4	16.6	3.4	5.2	20.1	16.9	2.7	4.6
1977	KCA	30	142	17.9	12.6	5.1	6.6	16.5	13.9	2.4	3.9
1978	KCA	31	141	23.2	15.0	8.0	9.8	21.8	16.4	5.3	7.1
1979	KCA	32	151	20.7	15.9	4.4	6.2	20.1	16.6	3.2	5.0
1980	KCA	33	107	13.7	10.6	2.9	4.0	12.4	12.0	0.2	1.3
1981	KCA	34	99	13.4	11.9	1.1	2.5	13.4	11.9	1.2	2.5
1982	KCA	35	125	19.0	14.9	4.0	5.5	17.3	16.6	0.6	2.2
1983	KCA	36	98	11.6	11.4	0.1	1.1	11.2	11.9	-0.9	0.1
1984	PIT	37	39	3.0	3.8	-1.1	-0.8	2.9	3.9	-1.2	-0.9
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			1,997	264.2	219.8	37.3	60.8	256.8	227.1	23.0	46.4
			------	------	------			------	------
PostSeason (career)			22	2.8	2.5		0.5	2.9	2.4		0.7
			------	------	------		------	------	------		------
COMBINED			2,019	267.0	222.3		61.3	259.7	229.5		47.1

Notable Debuts

The 1978 season saw the major-league debut of two middle infielders who would go on to be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame: Paul Molitor and Ozzie Smith.

The career Player won-lost records of Molitor and Smith are shown in the next table.

Season	Games	eWins	eLoss	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	eWins	eLoss	pWOPA	pWORL
	Paul Molitor					Ozzie Smith
1978	125	15.4	15.6	0.8	2.3	159	20.5	22.1	-0.2	1.8
1979	140	19.7	17.5	3.1	4.9	156	17.2	19.2	-0.4	1.4
1980	111	16.0	13.5	3.4	4.8	158	21.1	21.3	1.1	3.1
1981	64	7.1	6.9	0.0	0.8	110	13.7	15.0	-0.3	1.2
1982	160	21.6	18.5	2.8	4.6	140	18.8	17.7	2.2	3.8
1983	152	17.7	17.0	0.2	1.8	159	19.4	18.5	1.5	3.2
1984	13	1.0	1.2	-0.2	-0.1	124	17.2	16.5	2.0	3.5
1985	140	17.6	16.7	1.0	2.6	158	21.3	19.5	3.0	4.9
1986	105	13.5	12.3	0.9	2.1	153	18.3	17.3	2.0	3.7
1987	118	14.8	10.9	3.7	5.1	158	22.6	17.8	5.7	7.5
1988	154	20.1	16.9	3.1	5.1	153	21.9	18.2	4.3	6.3
1989	155	19.5	16.8	2.7	4.4	155	20.3	19.2	2.0	3.8
1990	103	12.5	11.0	1.4	2.4	143	16.8	16.6	1.0	2.4
1991	158	18.8	15.1	2.5	4.5	150	20.4	17.9	3.2	5.0
1992	158	17.4	13.9	2.7	4.5	132	18.2	16.9	2.1	3.8
1993	160	17.6	13.5	3.6	5.6	141	18.0	18.4	0.3	2.1
1994	115	11.5	9.2	1.6	3.1	98	11.3	12.1	-0.3	0.9
1995	130	11.0	10.7	-0.6	1.0	44	4.7	5.7	-0.9	-0.3
1996	161	16.1	15.0	0.1	2.1	82	7.3	7.0	0.7	1.3
1997	135	13.3	12.6	-0.0	1.7
1998	126	11.1	11.8	-1.6	-0.1
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	2,683	313.4	276.8	31.3	63.2	2,573	328.9	316.9	29.0	59.4

Team Comparison: Which Team was Better, the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox ended the regularly scheduled portion of the 1978 season tied with 99 wins apiece. The Yankees won Game 163 and the A.L. East division title, from which they went on to win their second straight World Series.

Player pWins are tied to team wins. Hence, the players on the New York Yankees ended up combining for exactly one more pWin than the players on the Boston Red Sox, by construction. I also calculate eWins, however, which are context-neutralized and not tied to team wins. So how did the 1978 Yankees and Red Sox compare in eWins? The next two tables make that comparison.

The first table compares eWins for the Yankees and Red Sox by factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding.

	Batting			Baserunning			Pitching			Fielding
Basic Decomposition of eWins, eLosses
	eWins	eLosses	eWinPct	eWins	eLosses	eWinPct	eWins	eLosses	eWinPct	eWins	eLosses	eWinPct
New York Yankees	116.1	112.8	0.507	11.5	10.3	0.528	80.2	71.4	0.529	42.6	44.0	0.492
Boston Red Sox	114.6	106.7	0.518	10.7	10.4	0.506	76.1	74.8	0.504	48.4	47.3	0.506

The Yankees had a fairly average offense and excellent pitching - e.g., Ron Guidry. The Red Sox had fairly average pitching and excellent hitting - e.g., Jim Rice.

The next table compares the Yankees and Red Sox by position.

	New York Yankees			Boston Red Sox
eWins, eLosses, eWOPA by Position
Position	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA
Catcher	14.8	17.2	-1.5	17.8	14.5	4.0
First Base	16.9	16.1	-0.2	15.0	14.5	-0.4
Second Base	19.4	18.8	1.7	19.7	21.5	-0.6
Third Base	20.9	18.2	2.4	17.0	18.1	-1.3
Shortstop	15.8	17.4	-0.2	19.0	21.1	-0.3
Left Field	21.2	21.3	-1.0	25.7	21.5	3.4
Center Field	20.0	20.3	-0.5	21.2	18.8	2.3
Right Field	22.9	20.3	1.4	21.0	17.6	2.3
Designated Hitter	13.4	12.1	1.1	13.0	13.2	-0.4
Pinch Hitter	3.2	2.7	0.6	1.3	1.2	0.2
Pinch Runner	0.1	0.3	-0.2	0.4	0.6	-0.0
Starting Pitcher	62.1	55.8	6.2	60.9	60.6	0.2
Relief Pitcher	20.2	17.7	2.6	17.6	16.3	1.4
Total	251.0	238.0	13.2	250.1	238.9	11.9

Great starting pitching in New York supplemented by an above-average bullpen beat out an outstanding outfield supplemented with an All-Star catcher. In this case, the old adage held true (barely): good pitching beat good hitting.

Article last updated: March 29, 2020

Wins over positional average and replacement level are calculated using data only for the 1978 season. Positional averages for starting pitching and relief pitching are calculated using single-year data for all starting pitchers and all relief pitchers.

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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