1980s Pitchers

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1980s Pitchers

The Best Pitcher(s) of the 1980s

Jack Morris stayed on the BBWAA Hall-of-Fame ballot for fifteen years and, at his peak, two-thirds of Hall-of-Fame voters thought that Jack Morris belonged there. Setting aside Game 7 of the 1991 World Series (not to suggest that shouldn't count toward his case), the chief argument in support of Jack Morris's ultimately successful Hall-of-Fame candidacy was that he had the most pitcher wins in the 1980s.

Pitcher wins have their flaws, but this sets up two questions that I think are worth exploring:

1. Does being the best pitcher of a decade merit induction into the Hall of Fame?

2. Who was the best pitcher of the 1980s?

In my opinion, the answer to question 1. is yes, being the best pitcher in baseball over a ten-year period is enough to merit induction into the Hall of Fame. This article attempts to answer question 2 using Player won-lost records.

Best Pitchers based on pWins

Let's start with the closest parallel to traditional pitcher wins. The next table shows the top 20 pitchers in pWins during the 1980s.

Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Most pWins during the 1980s: Pitchers
Jack Morris	146.6	132.1	16.6	33.8
Dave Stieb	137.8	117.6	22.1	38.0
Fernando Valenzuela	137.5	128.9	18.3	33.4
Nolan Ryan	135.7	128.3	16.0	31.1
Bob Welch	131.0	117.4	21.5	35.8
Charlie Hough	121.9	119.0	4.6	19.7
Bert Blyleven	120.7	111.0	12.0	26.3
Jim Clancy	120.5	119.6	3.3	18.0
Mike Scott	114.5	110.2	12.1	25.0
Rick Sutcliffe	113.7	106.4	13.2	26.2

Jack Morris led all major-league pitchers in pWins during the 1980s. He also led all major-league pitchers in pLosses in the decade.

The next table, then, moves away from a zero baseline and looks at pWins over replacement level.

Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Most pWins over Replacement Level during the 1980s: Pitchers
Dave Stieb	137.8	117.6	22.1	38.0
Dwight Gooden	89.1	65.9	28.6	37.3
Dan Quisenberry	68.5	41.1	25.2	35.8
Bob Welch	131.0	117.4	21.5	35.8
Roger Clemens	80.9	56.5	25.5	34.1
Jack Morris	146.6	132.1	16.6	33.8
Fernando Valenzuela	137.5	128.9	18.3	33.4
Dave Righetti	80.8	59.9	20.0	31.6
Nolan Ryan	135.7	128.3	16.0	31.1
Orel Hershiser	91.6	77.1	20.3	30.0

Jack Morris falls to sixth, with Dave Stieb showing up at the top of the table.

Shifting to pWORL also gives us our first relief pitcher, Dan Quisenberry. I wrote an article about him last recently. Comparing against replacement level is a good way to measure total value, recognizing that being below-average, but not too bad, has positive value. But does being a little below average add to a player's candidacy for determining the "best pitcher of the 1980s"? Maybe not.

So, the next table looks at the best pitchers of the 1980s as measured by pWins over positional average.

Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Most pWins over Positional Average during the 1980s: Pitchers
Dwight Gooden	89.1	65.9	28.6	37.3
Roger Clemens	80.9	56.5	25.5	34.1
Dan Quisenberry	68.5	41.1	25.2	35.8
Dave Stieb	137.8	117.6	22.1	38.0
Bob Welch	131.0	117.4	21.5	35.8
Bret Saberhagen	79.7	59.9	20.8	29.7
Teddy Higuera	69.9	50.2	20.6	28.1
Orel Hershiser	91.6	77.1	20.3	30.0
Dave Righetti	80.8	59.9	20.0	31.6
Rich Gossage	63.1	42.5	18.8	28.9

Switching to average, the top two starting pitchers of the 1980s did not make their major-league debuts until the fifth year of the decade, 1984: Dwight Gooden and Roger Clemens. Both Gooden and Clemens were actually still in high school when the 1980s began. But when they got to the major leagues in 1984, they both hit the ground running and made up for lost time: Gooden with an absolutely legendary 1985 season and Clemens with three straight seasons as the best pitcher in the American League from 1986 through 1988 (see below). I have previously written about Dwight Gooden, suggesting that I think he actually has a reasonable case for the Hall of Fame. I have also written about Roger Clemens as part of my annual write-up of Hall-of-Fame candidates.

Best Pitchers based on eWins

The previous tables all evaluated pitchers based on pWins, which are tied to team wins and are therefore highly context-dependent. Pitchers have some control over how well they perform in high-context situations, but much of the context underlying pWins are outside of a player's personal control.

Some people might, therefore, prefer to evaluate the "best pitcher of the 1980s" in a context-neutral framework. The next three tables, then, parallel the previous three, but are based on eWins instead of pWins.

Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
	Most eWins during the 1980s: Pitchers
Jack Morris	141.6	137.1	6.5	23.8
Dave Stieb	138.1	117.3	22.7	38.6
Fernando Valenzuela	136.5	129.9	17.3	32.4
Nolan Ryan	133.5	130.5	13.3	28.5
Bob Welch	127.0	121.4	13.8	28.1
Bert Blyleven	120.8	110.8	12.2	26.5
Charlie Hough	120.6	120.3	2.0	17.2
Jim Clancy	120.0	120.1	1.9	16.6
Mike Scott	114.0	110.7	12.7	25.6
Rick Rhoden	113.5	109.7	11.0	23.5

The names here are mostly familiar from earlier tables.

Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
	Most eWins over Replacement Level during the 1980s: Pitchers
Dave Stieb	138.1	117.3	22.7	38.6
Roger Clemens	80.9	56.5	25.4	34.0
Fernando Valenzuela	136.5	129.9	17.3	32.4
Orel Hershiser	91.5	77.3	20.9	30.7
Bret Saberhagen	79.8	59.7	21.0	29.9
Dwight Gooden	84.3	70.7	20.2	29.0
Nolan Ryan	133.5	130.5	13.3	28.5
Bob Welch	127.0	121.4	13.8	28.1
Bert Blyleven	120.8	110.8	12.2	26.5
Mike Scott	114.0	110.7	12.7	25.6

Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
	Most eWins over Positional Average during the 1980s: Pitchers
Roger Clemens	80.9	56.5	25.4	34.0
Dave Stieb	138.1	117.3	22.7	38.6
Bret Saberhagen	79.8	59.7	21.0	29.9
Orel Hershiser	91.5	77.3	20.9	30.7
Dwight Gooden	84.3	70.7	20.2	29.0
Fernando Valenzuela	136.5	129.9	17.3	32.4
Teddy Higuera	67.5	52.7	15.6	23.1
Mark Gubicza	77.2	64.4	13.9	22.8
Bob Welch	127.0	121.4	13.8	28.1
Dan Quisenberry	62.7	47.0	13.8	24.4

Controlling for context knocks Dwight Gooden down a bit, while making Bret Saberhagen and Orel Hershiser look quite a bit better.

Best Pitchers based purely on Pitching

The preceding tables have looked at total player won-lost records. One could, perhaps, argue instead that the best "pitcher" of the 1980s should be determined based purely on pitching. So, the next two tables look only at pitching player wins.

Player	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
	Most Pitching Wins during the 1980s: Pitchers
Jack Morris	137.7	133.9	3.8
Dave Stieb	132.2	116.7	15.5
Nolan Ryan	125.5	113.9	11.5
Fernando Valenzuela	120.4	111.3	9.1
Charlie Hough	118.0	118.1	-0.2
Jim Clancy	117.2	116.3	0.9
Bert Blyleven	116.9	108.2	8.7
Bob Welch	116.0	107.4	8.7
Frank Tanana	110.0	109.8	0.2
Frank Viola	109.9	103.7	6.1

Once again, if you're looking at a pure counting measure, Jack Morris looks pretty damn good.

Player	eWins	eLosses	Net Wins
	Most Net Pitching Wins during the 1980s: Pitchers
Roger Clemens	76.9	57.9	18.9
Bret Saberhagen	75.8	60.0	15.8
Dave Stieb	132.2	116.7	15.5
Orel Hershiser	80.9	65.9	14.9
Dan Quisenberry	59.6	45.3	14.3
Dwight Gooden	74.7	60.7	14.0
Rich Gossage	57.5	46.0	11.6
Dave Righetti	74.7	63.1	11.5
Nolan Ryan	125.5	113.9	11.5
Teddy Higuera	64.5	53.0	11.5

Finally, the best pitchers of the 1980s, measured only by net (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) pitching wins are Roger Clemens, Bret Saberhagen, Dave Stieb, Orel Hershiser, Dan Quisenberry, and Dwight Gooden.

That's probably a pretty solid list of players about whom one can have a conversation about whether they were the best pitcher of the 1980s. What's striking about this list is that four of the six pitchers did not throw a single major-league pitch over the first one-third of the decade.

Best Pitchers by Season

So far, we've only looked at totals for the entire decade. What about season by season? The next table shows the top pitchers of the 1980s by league-season, measured by total player pWins over replacement level.

		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Top Pitchers by League-Season in the 1980s, pWORL
1980	AL	Mike Norris	17.5	11.0	6.7	8.4	NL	Steve Carlton	19.8	13.2	7.8	>9.6
1981	AL	Steve McCatty	12.2	8.2	4.1	5.4	NL	Fernando Valenzuela	15.2	10.6	5.4	>6.9
1982	AL	Jim Palmer	14.9	9.9	5.3	6.8	NL	Steve Carlton	21.5	15.5	7.5	>9.4
1983	AL	La Marr Hoyt	16.9	11.3	5.8	7.5	NL	John Denny	15.7	10.6	6.3	>7.7
1984	AL	Willie Hernandez	9.8	3.1	6.4	7.7	NL	Dwight Gooden	16.3	11.6	5.7	>7.2
1985	AL	Bret Saberhagen	15.8	8.5	7.5	9.1	NL	Dwight Gooden	21.1	11.0	11.1	>13.0
1986	AL	Roger Clemens	17.2	9.8	7.5	9.2	NL	Mike Scott	18.9	12.7	7.2	>9.0
1987	AL	Roger Clemens	18.1	11.8	6.7	8.6	NL	Tim Burke	7.5	2.3	4.9	>5.9
1988	AL	Roger Clemens	17.9	11.8	6.2	8.1	NL	Orel Hershiser	20.1	13.4	7.8	>9.7
1989	AL	Bret Saberhagen	16.6	9.3	7.6	9.3	NL	Mark W. Davis	10.7	5.1	5.1	>6.5

Roger Clemens won the most "pWin Cy Young awards" - 3. Other repeat winners would have been Steve Carlton, Dwight Gooden, and Bret Saberhagen.

Conclusion

So, who was the best pitcher of the 1980s? I'm going to cheat. The best pitcher for the first 40% of the 1980s (1980 - 1983) was Philadelphia Phillies Hall-of-Famer Steve Carlton. The best pitcher for the middle 20% of the 1980s (1984 - 1985) was New York Mets wunderkind Dwight Gooden. The best pitcher for the last 40% of the 1980s (1986 - 1989) was Boston Red Sox ace Roger Clemens. Call the combination Steve "Doc" Clemens. And, just for fun, here is what Steve "Doc" Clemens career record looked like in the 1980s.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
1980	38	19.8	13.2	0.600	7.8	9.6	18.5	14.5	0.561	5.4	7.2
1981	24	11.4	8.3	0.577	3.7	4.9	10.9	8.8	0.555	3.0	4.2
1982	38	21.5	15.5	0.581	7.5	9.4	19.8	17.2	0.535	4.2	6.1
1983	37	17.5	16.9	0.509	2.0	3.9	18.0	16.4	0.522	3.0	4.9
1984	31	16.3	11.6	0.583	5.7	7.2	15.7	12.2	0.562	4.9	6.4
1985	35	21.1	11.0	0.657	11.1	13.0	19.7	12.5	0.611	8.4	10.2
1986	33	17.2	9.8	0.637	7.5	9.2	16.3	10.7	0.605	5.7	7.4
1987	36	18.1	11.8	0.607	6.7	8.6	17.9	12.0	0.599	6.2	8.1
1988	35	17.9	11.8	0.602	6.2	8.1	18.3	11.4	0.616	7.0	8.8
1989	35	14.7	12.7	0.536	2.3	4.1	15.3	12.2	0.557	3.4	5.2
--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------	--------------
1990	342	175.5	122.7	0.588	60.5	77.8	170.3	127.8	0.571	51.3	68.6

That guy would have been at the top of all of the preceding tables.

Article last updated: March 16, 2020

Wins over positional average and replacement level are calculated using single-season data. Positional averages for starting pitching and relief pitching are calculated using single-year data for all starting pitchers and all relief pitchers.

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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