2006 Season

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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2006 Season

The 2006 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

Next in my continuing series of looking at individual seasons through the prism of Player won-lost records is the 2006 season.

The Best of 2006

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Albert Pujols	23.2	12.6	9.2	10.9	1	Albert Pujols	23.2	12.6	9.2	10.9
2	Carlos Beltran	23.3	14.6	8.5	10.2	2	Carlos Beltran	23.3	14.6	8.5	10.2
3	David Ortiz	19.1	11.4	6.8	8.8	3	David Ortiz	19.1	11.4	6.8	8.8
4	Derek Jeter	22.7	17.0	6.4	8.2	4	Derek Jeter	22.7	17.0	6.4	8.2
5	Johan Santana	15.9	9.9	6.3	8.0	5	Johan Santana	15.9	9.9	6.3	8.0
6	Brandon Webb	15.1	10.5	5.7	7.2	6	Brandon Webb	15.1	10.5	5.7	7.2
7	Justin Morneau	21.6	15.0	5.4	7.1	7	Justin Morneau	21.6	15.0	5.4	7.1
8	Ryan Howard	21.3	14.6	5.2	6.8	8	Jermaine Dye	22.4	16.8	5.1	6.9
9	Jermaine Dye	22.4	16.8	5.1	6.9	9	Ryan Howard	21.3	14.6	5.2	6.8
10	Frankie Rodriguez	8.8	3.5	5.1	6.4	10	Carlos Guillen	22.1	17.8	4.9	6.8

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Albert Pujols	22.0	13.8	6.6	8.2	1	Albert Pujols	22.0	13.8	6.6	8.2
2	Carlos Beltran	22.0	15.8	5.8	7.6	2	David Ortiz	18.6	11.9	5.6	7.7
3	David Ortiz	18.6	11.9	5.6	7.7	3	Carlos Beltran	22.0	15.8	5.8	7.6
4	Brandon Webb	15.0	10.6	5.6	7.1	4	Brandon Webb	15.0	10.6	5.6	7.1
5	Johan Santana	15.5	10.4	5.4	7.0	5	Johan Santana	15.5	10.4	5.4	7.0
6	Ryan Howard	21.4	14.5	5.3	6.9	6	Ryan Howard	21.4	14.5	5.3	6.9
7	Chase Utley	22.3	17.6	5.1	6.9	7	Chase Utley	22.3	17.6	5.1	6.9
8	Jim Thome	15.9	10.3	4.7	6.5	8	Grady Sizemore	23.1	18.6	4.7	6.6
9	Travis Hafner	15.0	9.5	4.7	6.4	9	Jim Thome	15.9	10.3	4.7	6.5
10	Grady Sizemore	23.1	18.6	4.7	6.6	10	Travis Hafner	15.0	9.5	4.7	6.4

I take a look at some of the most interesting players of 2006 at the end of this article.

2006 Postseason

The 2006 postseason had several great moments. Billy Beane's Oakland A's finally won a postseason series. The New York Mets carried the momentum of a 97-win regular season through a 3-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers only to be shocked in 7 games by the St. Louis Cardinals.

The American League pennant was won by the Detroit Tigers, winner of 24 games more than the season before and 52 wins more than three years earlier. For the National League, the pennant winner was the 83-win St. Louis Cardinals, although that 83 wins was a little misleading as this was essentially the same team that had won 100 and 105 games the two previous regular seasons. The Cardinals won the World Series in five games.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	pWORL
	2006 Postseason: Total

Kenny Rogers	DET	2.0	0.7	1.5
Albert Pujols	SLN	2.8	1.4	1.3
Chris Carpenter (1997)	SLN	2.3	1.6	1.1
Adam Wainwright	SLN	1.1	0.3	1.0
Jeff Suppan	SLN	1.6	1.0	0.9
Carlos Beltran	NYN	1.6	0.9	0.9
Jeff Weaver	ANA	2.4	1.9	0.9
Tom Glavine	NYN	1.5	1.0	0.7
Craig Monroe	DET	2.0	1.3	0.7
Carlos Delgado	NYN	1.5	0.9	0.6

Top postseason players by round were as follows.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2006 World Series

Albert Pujols	SLN	1.1	0.4	0.7
Scott Rolen	SLN	0.9	0.3	0.6
Kenny Rogers	DET	0.6	0.2	0.5
Adam Wainwright	SLN	0.5	0.1	0.4
Chris Carpenter (1997)	SLN	0.6	0.2	0.4

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2006 Postseason: League Championship Series

Jeff Suppan	SLN	1.1	0.4	0.8
Magglio Ordonez	DET	1.1	0.3	0.7
Carlos Beltran	NYN	1.3	0.7	0.6
Craig Monroe	DET	0.8	0.2	0.6
Placido Polanco	DET	0.8	0.3	0.5

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2006 Postseason: Division Series

Chris Carpenter (1997)	SLN	1.1	0.6	0.5
Kenny Rogers	DET	0.8	0.3	0.5
Jeremy Bonderman	DET	0.5	0.1	0.5
Tom Glavine	NYN	0.6	0.2	0.4
Jay Payton	OAK	0.7	0.2	0.4

Best of 2006 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 2006 in wins over positional average (WOPA) by factor were as follows.


Batting
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Ryan Howard	18.0	10.8	6.9	1	Albert Pujols	18.7	9.1	9.3
2	Albert Pujols	17.1	10.7	6.0	2	David Ortiz	18.2	10.2	7.9
3	David Ortiz	17.2	11.1	6.0	3	Carlos Beltran	16.0	8.5	7.3
4	Travis Hafner	14.3	8.9	5.3	4	Ryan Howard	18.1	10.7	7.1
5	Lance Berkman	15.9	10.3	5.2	5	Lance Berkman	16.4	9.8	6.3
6	Jim Thome	15.1	9.8	5.2	6	Justin Morneau	18.1	11.7	6.3
7	Jason Giambi	15.1	10.3	4.7	7	Jason Giambi	15.8	9.6	6.1
8	Miguel Cabrera	15.7	10.8	4.7	8	Derek Jeter	16.0	10.4	5.5
9	Manny Ramirez	13.4	8.6	4.7	9	Jim Thome	15.2	9.7	5.4
10	Carlos Beltran	14.7	9.8	4.6	10	Manny Ramirez	13.6	8.4	5.1

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Baserunning
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Ichiro Suzuki	2.2	1.3	0.9	1	Hanley Ramirez	2.0	1.1	0.9
2	Carl Crawford	1.8	1.0	0.8	2	Chone Figgins	2.2	1.3	0.9
3	Brandon Phillips	1.5	0.8	0.7	3	Brandon Phillips	1.6	0.7	0.8
4	Felipe Lopez	2.1	1.4	0.6	4	Orlando Cabrera	1.7	0.8	0.8
5	Corey Patterson	1.5	0.9	0.6	5	Brian Roberts	1.9	1.2	0.8
6	Albert Pujols	1.4	0.8	0.6	6	Corey Patterson	1.5	0.8	0.7
7	Grady Sizemore	1.9	1.3	0.6	7	Willy Taveras	1.6	0.9	0.7
8	Brian Roberts	1.9	1.2	0.6	8	Chase Utley	1.4	0.8	0.6
9	Scott Podsednik	2.0	1.4	0.6	9	Ichiro Suzuki	2.1	1.4	0.6
10	Chone Figgins	2.1	1.5	0.6	10	Eric Byrnes	1.3	0.8	0.6

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Pitching
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLoss	Net pWins
1	Brandon Webb	13.4	9.2	4.2	1	Johan Santana	15.5	9.5	6.0
2	Johan Santana	14.5	10.5	4.0	2	Frankie Rodriguez	8.7	3.1	5.6
3	Derek Lowe	12.7	9.2	3.5	3	Brandon Webb	13.8	8.8	5.1
4	B.J. Ryan	6.4	3.5	3.0	4	Joe Nathan	6.6	1.7	4.9
5	Chris Carpenter (1997)	13.0	10.0	3.0	5	Chris Carpenter (1997)	13.6	9.4	4.1
6	Takashi Saito	5.9	3.0	2.9	6	B.J. Ryan	6.9	2.9	4.0
7	Jonathan Papelbon	6.0	3.2	2.8	7	J.J. Putz	6.7	2.7	4.0
8	John Lackey	12.7	9.9	2.8	8	Roy Oswalt	12.5	8.6	3.9
9	Joe Nathan	5.6	2.7	2.8	9	Jonathan Papelbon	6.5	2.6	3.9
10	Jeremy Bonderman	13.2	10.5	2.7	10	Francisco Liriano	7.7	4.0	3.7

Fielding by Position


Fielding, P
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Greg Maddux	0.5	0.2	0.3	1	Joe Borowski	0.4	0.0	0.4
2	Orlando Hernandez	0.4	0.1	0.3	2	Brian Sweeney	0.3	0.0	0.3
3	Josh M. Johnson	0.4	0.1	0.3	3	Orlando Hernandez	0.4	0.1	0.3
4	Mariano Rivera	0.3	0.0	0.3	4	Greg Maddux	0.5	0.2	0.3
5	Johan Santana	0.5	0.2	0.3	5	Ryan Madson	0.3	0.1	0.3


Fielding, C
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Yadier Molina	1.6	1.1	0.5	1	Ivan Rodriguez	1.3	0.8	0.5
2	Gerald Laird	0.8	0.4	0.4	2	Jason Kendall	1.8	1.4	0.4
3	Yorvit Torrealba	1.0	0.6	0.4	3	Yadier Molina	1.5	1.1	0.4
4	Ivan Rodriguez	1.2	0.8	0.4	4	Kenji Johjima	1.6	1.2	0.4
5	Kenji Johjima	1.6	1.2	0.3	5	Jorge Posada	1.6	1.2	0.4


Fielding, 1B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Albert Pujols	3.3	2.6	0.7	1	Chris Shelton	1.8	1.2	0.6
2	Dan Johnson	1.7	1.3	0.5	2	Adrian Gonzalez	2.6	2.1	0.6
3	Scott Hatteberg	2.0	1.6	0.4	3	Scott Hatteberg	2.1	1.6	0.5
4	Chris Shelton	1.6	1.3	0.3	4	Albert Pujols	3.2	2.7	0.5
5	Adrian Gonzalez	2.5	2.2	0.3	5	Kevin Youkilis	1.9	1.5	0.5


Fielding, 2B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Chase Utley	6.1	4.7	1.4	1	Placido Polanco	4.8	3.2	1.6
2	Jamey Carroll	4.2	3.0	1.1	2	Aaron Hill	5.0	3.7	1.3
3	Aaron Hill	4.7	3.9	0.7	3	Jamey Carroll	4.1	3.1	1.0
4	Placido Polanco	4.3	3.7	0.6	4	Josh Barfield	5.2	4.5	0.7
5	Mark Grudzielanek	4.8	4.3	0.5	5	Jose Valentin	3.3	2.6	0.7


Fielding, 3B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Brandon Inge	6.5	5.2	1.3	1	Brandon Inge	6.6	5.0	1.5
2	Freddy Sanchez	3.6	2.3	1.2	2	Eric Chavez	4.6	3.4	1.2
3	Mike Lowell	4.8	3.6	1.2	3	Freddy Sanchez	3.5	2.4	1.2
4	Joe Crede	5.6	4.5	1.1	4	Mike Lowell	4.7	3.7	1.0
5	Pedro Feliz	5.1	4.3	0.9	5	Joe Crede	5.6	4.6	1.0


Fielding, SS
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Adam Everett	6.8	5.0	1.8	1	Adam Everett	6.8	4.9	1.9
2	Jhonny Peralta	7.1	5.7	1.4	2	Jimmy Rollins	5.8	5.0	0.8
3	Jack Wilson	5.7	5.1	0.6	3	Craig Counsell	3.8	3.0	0.8
4	Juan Uribe	5.5	4.9	0.6	4	Jhonny Peralta	6.8	6.0	0.8
5	Craig Counsell	3.6	3.1	0.5	5	Jose B. Reyes	5.4	4.6	0.7


Fielding, LF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Reed Johnson	2.8	1.9	0.9	1	Alfonso Soriano	7.3	6.0	1.3
2	Alfonso Soriano	7.1	6.2	0.9	2	Nick Swisher	4.1	2.9	1.2
3	Nick Swisher	3.9	3.1	0.8	3	Reed Johnson	2.9	1.8	1.1
4	Luke Scott	1.8	1.3	0.5	4	Cliff Floyd	3.5	2.8	0.7
5	Jason Tyner	1.5	1.1	0.5	5	Ryan Langerhans	3.2	2.6	0.6


Fielding, CF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Vernon Wells	5.7	4.8	1.0	1	Jim Edmonds	5.5	3.4	2.1
2	Willy Taveras	4.6	3.9	0.7	2	Vernon Wells	5.9	4.6	1.3
3	Grady Sizemore	6.4	5.8	0.7	3	Corey Patterson	4.6	3.4	1.2
4	Corey Patterson	4.3	3.6	0.6	4	Curtis Granderson	6.0	4.9	1.1
5	Ryan Freel	2.0	1.6	0.4	5	Jay Payton	2.3	1.4	0.9


Fielding, RF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Alexis Rios	4.6	3.7	0.9	1	Jason Lane	3.9	2.7	1.2
2	Jeff Francoeur	7.8	7.0	0.8	2	Nick Markakis	4.4	3.2	1.1
3	Reggie L. Sanders	3.1	2.3	0.8	3	Magglio Ordonez	6.3	5.3	1.0
4	Ryan Freel	2.0	1.2	0.8	4	Jeff Francoeur	7.9	7.0	0.8
5	Jason Lane	3.6	3.0	0.6	5	Milton Bradley	4.0	3.2	0.8

Best by Position

Next, we look at 2006 Major-League leaders by position. The figures shown here only include Player decisions earned while playing this particular position.


Catcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Brian McCann	13.5	10.6	3.2	1	Jorge Posada	14.0	10.5	4.1
2	Jorge Posada	13.3	11.1	2.9	2	Joe Mauer	13.4	10.8	3.3
3	Joe Mauer	13.1	11.1	2.8	3	Brian McCann	13.4	10.6	3.1
4	Ramon J. Hernandez	12.6	11.1	2.2	4	Mike Napoli	8.0	6.0	2.4
5	Kenji Johjima	12.7	11.8	1.6	5	Jason Varitek	9.5	8.2	1.8


First Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Albert Pujols	21.8	14.1	6.2	1	Albert Pujols	23.2	12.6	9.2
2	Ryan Howard	21.0	14.7	4.8	2	Justin Morneau	21.3	14.7	5.4
3	Lance Berkman	13.5	9.8	2.6	3	Ryan Howard	21.2	14.5	5.0
4	Nick Johnson	17.2	13.3	2.4	4	Lance Berkman	14.2	9.2	4.0
5	Justin Morneau	19.8	16.2	2.2	5	Carlos Delgado	16.6	12.1	3.1


Second Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Chase Utley	21.8	17.5	4.8	1	Chase Utley	21.6	17.6	4.4
2	Ray Durham	17.6	15.3	2.6	2	Ray Durham	18.0	14.9	3.4
3	Jose Valentin	11.4	10.0	1.7	3	Jose Valentin	12.3	9.1	3.4
4	Jamey Carroll	13.3	12.0	1.6	4	Placido Polanco	14.1	12.5	2.2
5	Dan Uggla	18.9	17.9	1.3	5	Robinson Cano	14.7	13.2	2.1


Third Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Miguel Cabrera	21.0	16.4	3.8	1	David Wright	22.6	16.9	4.8
2	Alex Rodriguez	20.2	17.0	2.7	2	Miguel Cabrera	21.2	16.2	4.2
3	Chipper Jones	13.9	10.8	2.5	3	Alex Rodriguez	20.4	16.7	3.2
4	Garrett Atkins	21.8	18.3	2.4	4	Brandon Inge	19.5	16.1	3.0
5	David Wright	21.2	18.2	2.0	5	Eric Chavez	16.2	13.1	2.8


Shortstop
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Derek Jeter	20.9	17.9	3.8	1	Derek Jeter	22.4	16.3	6.8
2	Carlos Guillen	20.5	17.6	3.6	2	Carlos Guillen	21.1	16.9	4.9
3	Miguel Tejada	19.8	18.4	2.3	3	Jose B. Reyes	21.0	17.8	3.6
4	Jose B. Reyes	20.1	18.7	1.8	4	Jimmy Rollins	21.0	18.6	2.9
5	Bill Hall	17.0	15.5	1.8	5	Orlando Cabrera	20.5	18.9	2.4


Left Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Manny Ramirez	17.7	14.2	2.9	1	Manny Ramirez	18.2	14.2	4.0
2	Alfonso Soriano	23.3	19.3	2.8	2	Nick Swisher	12.1	8.7	3.6
3	Barry Bonds	14.3	11.1	2.5	3	Barry Bonds	14.4	11.1	2.7
4	Nick Swisher	11.6	8.7	2.5	4	Alfonso Soriano	23.0	19.3	2.0
5	Jason Bay	23.5	20.0	2.1	5	Frank Catalanotto	12.3	11.0	1.7


Center Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Carlos Beltran	21.7	15.9	5.6	1	Carlos Beltran	23.2	14.4	8.5
2	Grady Sizemore	22.8	18.7	4.2	2	Andruw Jones	22.2	17.8	4.1
3	Andruw Jones	22.3	17.8	4.2	3	Vernon Wells	20.6	17.1	3.7
4	Vernon Wells	20.7	17.0	3.8	4	Grady Sizemore	22.5	19.1	3.5
5	Mike Cameron	19.4	17.1	1.9	5	Curtis Granderson	19.5	16.7	3.0


Right Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jermaine Dye	21.6	17.6	3.5	1	Jermaine Dye	22.4	16.8	5.2
2	Bobby Abreu	21.6	18.4	2.5	2	Bobby Abreu	22.3	17.7	3.9
3	Austin Kearns	20.5	17.9	1.8	3	Milton Bradley	13.2	9.8	3.2
4	Lance Berkman	5.8	3.9	1.7	4	Alexis Rios	15.8	13.0	2.5
5	Alexis Rios	15.4	13.5	1.5	5	Mike Cuddyer	19.7	17.0	2.3


Starting Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Brandon Webb	13.7	9.5	4.5	1	Johan Santana	15.9	9.8	6.3
2	Johan Santana	15.0	10.8	4.5	2	Brandon Webb	14.2	9.0	5.4
3	Derek Lowe	12.9	9.5	3.7	3	Chris Carpenter (1997)	13.7	9.5	4.5
4	Chris Carpenter (1997)	13.1	10.1	3.3	4	Roy Oswalt	12.8	8.6	4.4
5	John Lackey	13.1	10.1	3.2	5	Derek Lowe	13.1	9.3	4.0
6	Roy Oswalt	12.1	9.3	3.0	6	Roy Halladay	12.0	8.5	3.8
7	Jeremy Bonderman	13.4	10.7	2.9	7	Jeremy Bonderman	13.7	10.4	3.6
8	Chien-Ming Wang	12.2	9.8	2.6	8	John Lackey	13.2	10.1	3.3
9	Mike Mussina	10.8	8.5	2.4	9	Francisco Liriano	7.0	3.9	3.3
10	Francisco Liriano	6.6	4.3	2.4	10	Jered Weaver	8.1	5.0	3.2


Relief Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	B.J. Ryan	6.6	3.5	2.9	1	Frankie Rodriguez	8.8	3.5	5.1
2	Takashi Saito	6.0	3.0	2.8	2	Joe Nathan	6.7	1.8	4.6
3	Mariano Rivera	6.7	3.7	2.8	3	B.J. Ryan	7.1	3.0	3.8
4	Jonathan Papelbon	6.0	3.2	2.7	4	J.J. Putz	6.7	2.8	3.8
5	Joe Nathan	5.6	2.9	2.6	5	Jonathan Papelbon	6.6	2.7	3.7
6	Huston Street	7.2	4.7	2.3	6	Takashi Saito	6.3	2.7	3.5
7	J.J. Putz	6.0	3.5	2.2	7	Bobby Jenks	7.6	4.0	3.4
8	Frankie Rodriguez	7.3	5.0	2.0	8	Mariano Rivera	7.0	3.4	3.4
9	Akinori Otsuka	5.8	3.9	1.7	9	Trevor Hoffman	6.8	3.4	3.2
10	Cla Meredith	3.2	1.5	1.6	10	Billy Wagner	7.3	4.0	3.0


Designated Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	David Ortiz	16.8	11.4	4.4	1	David Ortiz	17.6	10.6	6.1
2	Jim Thome	15.1	10.2	4.2	2	Jim Thome	15.2	10.1	4.3
3	Travis Hafner	14.1	9.3	4.0	3	Frank E. Thomas	14.8	10.2	3.8

Finally, here are the best at three oft-forgotten positions that can nevertheless matter: pitcher offense, pinch hitting, and pinch running.


Pitcher Offense
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Carlos Zambrano	1.2	1.5	0.6	1	Carlos Zambrano	1.6	1.0	1.2
2	Dontrelle Willis	1.1	1.5	0.4	2	Jake Peavy	1.7	1.6	1.0
3	Mark Mulder	0.5	0.5	0.3	3	David Bush	1.1	1.4	0.5


Pinch Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Daryle Ward	1.8	1.3	0.7	1	Josh Willingham	0.7	0.1	0.7
2	Olmedo Saenz	1.8	1.5	0.5	2	Mike Piazza	0.9	0.3	0.6
3	Moises Alou	0.6	0.1	0.5	3	Ken Griffey Jr.	0.8	0.3	0.6


Pinch Runner
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Ray Olmedo	0.2	0.0	0.2	1	Ray Olmedo	0.2	0.0	0.2
2	Eric Reed	0.3	0.1	0.2	2	Eric Reed	0.3	0.1	0.2
3	Khalil Greene	0.2	0.0	0.1	3	Pablo Ozuna	0.3	0.1	0.2

Noteworthy Players of 2006

NL MVP Race

The best player in the major leagues in 2006, as measured both pWins and eWins over either positional average (WOPA) or replacement level (WORL) was St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols. The second-best National League player in all four measures was New York Mets center fielder Carlos Beltran.

The voters chose Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard. Howard had a very good season - he even led the major leagues in (context-neutral) batting wins over non-pitcher average. But other players were better.

The next table compares the careers of the top two players in the major leagues in pWOPA and pWORL in 2006: Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran. I would anticipate that both of these players will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame within the next 10 years.

Season	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Albert Pujols					Carlos Beltran
1998						14	1.6	2.2	-0.6	-0.4
1999						156	20.1	21.1	-1.2	0.8
2000						98	10.2	11.4	-1.4	-0.3
2001	161	23.6	17.7	4.6	6.8	155	21.5	19.9	1.6	3.8
2002	157	23.6	17.7	4.7	6.8	162	19.7	19.7	-0.2	1.9
2003	157	23.2	14.8	7.1	9.0	141	19.4	15.3	4.1	5.9
2004	154	21.9	13.4	7.2	9.0	159	23.2	18.6	4.4	6.5
2005	161	20.7	14.4	5.0	6.5	151	19.9	18.4	1.1	2.8
2006	143	23.2	12.6	9.2	10.9	140	23.3	14.6	8.5	10.2
2007	158	20.2	14.3	4.6	6.2	144	20.0	15.3	4.3	5.9
2008	148	19.2	12.5	5.5	6.9	161	24.5	17.9	6.2	8.2
2009	160	25.2	14.8	8.5	10.3	81	11.2	9.1	1.9	2.9
2010	159	22.3	14.7	6.0	7.7	64	7.0	6.9	-0.0	0.6
2011	147	19.7	13.3	5.0	6.6	142	19.8	17.4	1.1	2.9
2012	154	18.2	14.9	2.6	4.4	151	20.7	16.0	3.9	5.8
2013	99	9.7	9.5	-0.0	1.2	145	19.4	17.1	1.1	3.0
2014	159	17.8	14.4	2.6	4.2	109	10.0	10.3	-0.6	0.6
2015	157	17.8	15.3	1.4	3.2	133	15.6	14.7	0.3	1.7
2016	152	16.4	14.3	1.4	3.4	151	15.8	14.8	0.7	2.4
2017	149	13.2	14.0	-0.6	1.3	129	8.4	9.3	-0.7	0.5
2018	117	11.8	11.8	-0.6	0.8
2019	131	12.2	12.9	-1.1	0.3
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	2,823	359.9	267.3	72.9	105.3	2,586	331.4	290.0	34.6	65.4

AL MVP Race

The actual MVP race was a close race between a Minnesota Twin and New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter. Based on the first four tables in this article, Player won-lost records sort of agree: two of the top three players in the American League in 2006 were Derek Jeter and a Minnesota Twin. Except for one thing: based on Player won-lost records, the Minnesota Twins' MVP candidate was Johan Santana, but the actual 2006 AL MVP was Santana's teammate, first baseman Justin Morneau.

I take a somewhat closer look at these three players next.

Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter might have had more written about him than any other recent major-league player. On the one hand, he is adored, regarded by some as the greatest New York Yankee of all time. On the other hand, he is regarded by others as the worst defensive shortstop in major-league history.

Googling to find the examples in the previous paragraph, I came across this article with the headline, "Derek Jeter, Still Baseball's Most Underrated Overrated Player". I think that headline hits the nail pretty well on the head. And I think this dichotomy can perhaps best be seen in Derek Jeter's MVP vote totals through his career.

On the one hand, Derek Jeter received MVP votes in 12 seasons and he ranks 42nd in career MVP shares at Baseball-Reference.com. That would seem to support the "Jeter is overrated" hypothesis. On the other hand, based on Player won-lost records, Derek Jeter was among the top two players in the American League in pWins over positional average (pWOPA), replacement level (pWORL), or both three times: 1998, 1999, and 2006. Derek Jeter finished 3rd, 6th, and 2nd in MVP voting those three years. To some extent, I think that Derek Jeter is so over-rated that he's under-rated.

Derek Jeter's career, as measured by Player won-lost records, is shown in the next table.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1995	NYA	21	15	1.0	1.6	-0.4	-0.5
1996	NYA	22	157	18.2	19.7	1.4	-0.4
1997	NYA	23	159	21.1	20.2	4.2	2.2
1998	NYA	24	149	23.1	16.8	9.3	7.3
1999	NYA	25	158	26.1	18.1	11.2	9.1
2000	NYA	26	148	20.5	16.7	6.4	4.6
2001	NYA	27	150	20.1	17.4	5.6	3.6
2002	NYA	28	157	20.3	17.6	5.4	3.5
2003	NYA	29	119	15.8	12.9	4.9	3.5
2004	NYA	30	154	22.7	18.1	7.5	5.5
2005	NYA	31	159	23.0	20.5	5.4	3.5
2006	NYA	32	154	22.7	17.0	8.2	6.4
2007	NYA	33	156	21.3	18.1	5.5	3.8
2008	NYA	34	150	18.4	17.7	3.3	1.7
2009	NYA	35	153	19.4	16.5	5.5	3.8
2010	NYA	36	157	20.3	20.0	3.3	1.4
2011	NYA	37	131	15.9	15.4	2.7	1.2
2012	NYA	38	159	20.3	19.0	4.2	2.2
2013	NYA	39	17	1.5	1.7	-0.0	-0.2
2014	NYA	40	145	15.9	18.1	-0.0	-1.6
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,747	367.7	323.1	93.7	60.6
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			158	21.3	18.4	5.8	3.8
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,905	388.9	341.6	99.5	64.4

Johan Santana

The best pitcher in the American League in 2006 (and, arguably, in the major leagues) was Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins. The 2006 season was the last of three consecutive seasons over which Johan Santana led American League pitchers in pWOPA and pWORL (he led all major-league pitchers in 2004 and 2006). Santana remained very good for three more seasons after 2006, although the last of these (2009) was injury-shortened (25 games). Unfortunately, that was mostly the end of Johan Santana's run as an elite major-league pitcher.

The next table compares the careers of Johan Santana and another pitcher whose run as the best pitcher in baseball was cut short by injuries, Sandy Koufax, as measured by Player won-lost records.

Age	Games	eWins	eLoss	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	eWins	eLoss	pWOPA	pWORL
	Johan Santana					Sandy Koufax
19	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	12	2.5	2.4	0.2	0.5
20	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	16	3.4	4.4	-0.9	-0.4
21	30	2.4	3.2	-0.9	-0.4	34	5.2	5.8	-0.3	0.4
22	15	1.5	1.3	0.2	0.5	40	10.2	12.0	-1.4	-0.0
23	27	7.4	5.5	2.0	2.9	35	9.6	9.4	0.5	1.6
24	45	10.3	6.1	4.3	5.5	37	10.5	12.5	-1.5	-0.1
25	34	15.3	8.1	7.4	8.9	42	17.4	15.8	2.3	4.3
26	33	14.5	8.5	6.2	7.6	28	11.8	9.2	3.3	4.6
27	34	15.9	9.9	6.3	8.0	40	22.5	13.3	10.2	12.4
28	33	13.5	10.8	3.0	4.7	29	15.7	11.2	5.3	7.1
29	34	15.1	11.8	4.3	6.0	43	25.0	14.5	11.7	14.1
30	25	11.2	9.3	2.7	3.9	41	22.8	16.1	7.8	10.1
31	29	12.5	12.7	0.6	2.1	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
32	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
33	21	8.4	10.1	-1.1	0.1	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
Total	360	128.0	97.3	35.0	49.7	397	156.7	126.6	37.0	54.8

Justin Morneau

The winner of the official 2006 American League MVP award was Justin Morneau, who narrowly defeated Derek Jeter. This decision was widely disdained in sabermetric circles.

Using the measure of Player won-lost records that most closely matches other sabermetric measures, eWins, over either positional average or replacement level, Justin Morneau was not among the top 25 players in the American League in 2006.

And yet, Justin Morneau's name appears in two of the top 10 lists above: not at the top among American Leaguers, but within the top four at least.

The next table presents Justin Morneau's 2006 season, as measured by Player won-lost records, both in and out of context.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Justin Morneau	157	21.6	15.0	5.4	7.1	20.0	16.7	2.1	3.8

Putting Justin Morneau's 2006 season in context, it turns out to have been worth approximately 3.3 more wins to the Minnesota Twins than expected.

It turns out that the timing of Justin Morneau's hitting in 2006 was extremely favorable to the Twins. Overall, for the season, Morneau batted .321/.375/.559, an OPS of .934. In extra innings, Morneau batted .500/.545/1.375, an OPS of 1.920! In tie games, Morneau batted .324/.370/.613/.983. For the season, 47% of Morneau's plate appearances came with runners on base (309 out of 661), but he hit 56% of his home runs with runners on base (19 of 34).

Baseball-Reference divides plate appearances into three buckets by leverage: high, medium, and low. Morneau's OPS in high-leverage plate appearances was 1.027.

But, to me, the most amazing split of Justin Morneau's 2006 batting stats is this one. In (94) Twins victories, Morneau batted .371/.421/.661 (1.082 OPS) with 27 HRs and 109 RBI (in 418 PAs). In (63) Twins losses, Morneau batted .235/.296/.382 (.679 OPS) with 7 HRs and only 21 RBI in 243 PAs.

On average, hitters generally perform better in team wins than in team losses - that's one reason why teams win those games, of course. But generally not to that extent. For the 2006 AL as a whole, batters hit .311/.380/.512/.892 in team wins and .235/.294/.355/.650 in team losses. Morneau's teammate, Joe Mauer, hit .404/.493/.586/1.080 in team wins and .266/.328/.393/.720 in team losses. The OPS difference for the AL as a whole was .242, for Mauer it was .360; for Morneau, it was .403.

David Ortiz

It turns out - in a result that is as surprising to me as it probably is to you - that, according to Baseball Player won-lost records, the 2006 AL MVP was probably neither Derek Jeter nor a Minnesota Twin. It was Boston Red Sox DH David Ortiz, who finished second in AL MVP voting in 2005 and third in 2006. Certainly, Ortiz's offensive numbers stack up well with historical MVP winners: .287/.413/.636, a 1.049 OPS, 355 total bass, 119 walks, 54 home runs, 137 RBI, 115 runs scored. He led the American League in home runs, RBI, walks, and total bases.

For his career, Baseball Player won-lost records think highly of Ortiz and view him as having amassed a deserving Hall-of-Fame resume.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1997	MIN	21	15	1.0	1.2	-0.2	-0.3
1998	MIN	22	86	7.0	7.8	-0.7	-1.5
1999	MIN	23	10	0.2	0.7	-0.4	-0.5
2000	MIN	24	128	9.6	9.8	0.4	-0.8
2001	MIN	25	89	7.7	7.1	1.4	0.3
2002	MIN	26	125	10.2	8.8	2.3	1.0
2003	BOS	27	128	13.8	10.7	4.1	2.6
2004	BOS	28	150	17.2	12.6	6.0	4.0
2005	BOS	29	159	20.2	11.7	9.8	7.7
2006	BOS	30	151	19.1	11.4	8.8	6.8
2007	BOS	31	149	18.3	13.0	6.3	4.3
2008	BOS	32	109	11.9	8.3	4.5	3.1
2009	BOS	33	150	13.9	11.2	3.8	2.1
2010	BOS	34	145	16.0	11.0	6.4	4.6
2011	BOS	35	145	14.6	11.4	4.3	2.6
2012	BOS	36	90	9.7	6.4	4.2	3.1
2013	BOS	37	137	14.8	10.7	5.9	4.2
2014	BOS	38	142	14.0	11.2	3.9	2.3
2015	BOS	39	146	14.3	11.7	3.7	1.9
2016	BOS	40	151	17.4	12.4	6.5	4.5
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,405	250.9	189.0	80.9	51.8
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			85	9.6	6.1	4.2	3.2
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,490	260.5	195.2	85.1	55.0

Finally, to close out this article, I take a closer look at the surprise team of 2006.

Remarkable Turnaround: 2006 Detroit Tigers

The 2003 Detroit Tigers lost an American League record 119 games, winning 5 of their final 6 to just barely avoid finishing worse that the 120-loss New York Mets. Three years later, the 2006 Detroit Tigers were the talk of the baseball world, winning 95 games and the American League pennant.

How did they do it?

The next three tables divide the players on the 2006 Detroit Tigers into three groups and look at how those groups of players performed, as measured by Player won-lost records.

The first table shows the 2006 Player won-lost records for players who played on both the 2003 and 2006 Detroit Tigers. The players in this table are sorted by pWins over replacement level in 2006.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
2006 Detroit Tigers who were also on 2003 Detroit Tigers (sorted by pWORL)
Jeremy Bonderman	34	13.7	10.5	3.5	5.1	13.7	10.5	3.5	5.0
Brandon Inge	159	19.5	16.1	3.0	4.6	18.6	17.0	1.2	2.9
Craig Monroe	147	18.1	15.5	1.9	3.6	17.0	16.6	-0.4	1.3
Fernando Rodney	63	5.6	4.1	1.3	2.3	5.4	4.3	1.0	2.0
Nate Robertson	32	13.1	13.0	0.4	2.0	12.8	13.2	-0.1	1.6
Mike Maroth	13	3.4	2.5	0.9	1.3	2.7	3.2	-0.4	-0.0
Jamie Walker	56	1.6	1.2	0.3	0.6	1.5	1.3	0.1	0.4
Omar Infante	78	5.6	6.0	-0.2	0.4	5.8	5.8	0.2	0.7
Wilfredo Ledezma	24	2.8	3.0	-0.2	0.3	3.0	2.8	0.2	0.6
Chris Spurling	9	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.0	0.0
Ramon Santiago	43	1.6	2.1	-0.4	-0.2	1.6	2.1	-0.4	-0.2
Dmitri Young	48	2.8	3.9	-1.3	-0.9	3.2	3.5	-0.6	-0.1

The Tigers had two regulars who had been with them three years earlier, although Brandon Inge switched positions between the two seasons, moving from catcher to third base. Both Inge and Monroe performed better in 2006 than they had in 2003.

The 2006 Tigers also had three starting pitchers who had been with the team in 2003: Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, and Mike Maroth, as well as key relief pitcher Francisco Rodney.

But overall, the number of holdovers from the 2003 Tigers to the 2006 Tigers was fairly small.

The second table shows the 2006 Player won-lost records for players who played for the 2006 Detroit Tigers, who made their major-league debut after 2003. Again, the players in this table are sorted by pWins over replacement level in 2006.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
2006 Detroit Tigers who debuted after 2003 (sorted by pWORL)
Curtis Granderson	159	19.6	16.8	2.8	4.5	18.5	17.9	0.8	2.4
Justin Verlander	30	12.0	10.4	1.8	3.3	11.3	11.0	0.5	1.9
Joel Zumaya	62	7.1	5.1	1.8	3.1	6.7	5.5	1.0	2.3
Chris Shelton	115	9.8	8.3	0.8	1.6	9.2	8.8	-0.3	0.6
Roman Colon	20	1.4	1.2	0.2	0.5	1.3	1.3	-0.1	0.2
Zach Miner	27	4.5	5.2	-0.6	0.1	4.6	5.1	-0.4	0.3
Mike Rabelo	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Brent Clevlen	31	1.3	1.4	-0.1	-0.0	1.5	1.2	0.3	0.4
Jordan Tata	8	0.2	0.3	-0.1	-0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.1
Kevin Hooper	8	0.0	0.0	-0.0	-0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	-0.0
Jack Hannahan	3	0.0	0.2	-0.2	-0.2	0.0	0.1	-0.1	-0.1
Andrew Miller	8	0.3	0.5	-0.3	-0.2	0.3	0.4	-0.1	0.0

Historically, the best way for very bad teams to get better is with good young homegrown talent. The 2006 Tigers got some of this: 25-year-old center fielder Curtis Granderson, 23-year-old starting pitcher (and 2006 AL Rookie of the Year) Justin Verlander, 21-year-old reliever Joel Zumaya, and 26-year-old first baseman (and Rule 5 pickup from the Pittsburgh Pirates following the 2003 season) Chris Shelton.

Finally, the third table shows the 2006 Player won-lost records for players who played for the 2006 Detroit Tigers, who also played in 2003, but not for the Tigers. Once again, the players in this table are sorted by pWins over replacement level in 2006.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
2006 Detroit Tigers who played in 2003 for somebody else (sorted by pWORL)
Carlos Guillen	153	22.1	17.8	4.9	6.8	21.5	18.4	3.8	5.6
Kenny Rogers	34	11.9	9.9	2.3	3.7	11.0	10.8	0.4	1.8
Placido Polanco	110	14.3	12.7	2.2	3.5	13.0	13.9	-0.2	1.1
Magglio Ordonez	155	20.6	18.7	1.4	3.2	20.2	19.2	0.5	2.4
Todd Jones	62	5.8	4.1	1.6	2.6	5.6	4.3	1.2	2.2
Marcus Thames	110	10.6	8.8	1.3	2.3	10.4	9.0	1.0	2.0
Ivan Rodriguez	136	12.5	12.5	0.8	1.9	12.7	12.3	1.1	2.3
Vance Wilson	56	3.7	3.1	0.8	1.1	3.4	3.4	0.2	0.5
Alexis Gomez	62	2.7	2.7	-0.1	0.2	2.8	2.7	0.1	0.3
Jason Grilli	51	1.8	2.1	-0.3	0.1	2.0	1.9	-0.0	0.4
Chad Durbin	3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.0	0.0
Matt Stairs	14	0.7	0.8	-0.2	-0.1	0.7	0.8	-0.1	0.0
Bobby Seay	14	0.2	0.3	-0.1	-0.1	0.2	0.3	-0.1	0.0
Colby Lewis	2	0.0	0.2	-0.1	-0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.0	-0.0
Neifi Perez	21	1.4	2.4	-0.8	-0.6	1.6	2.2	-0.5	-0.4
Sean Casey	53	4.3	5.6	-1.7	-1.2	4.4	5.5	-1.5	-1.0

This last table is the key one for the 2006 Tigers: between shrewd trading and judicious free-agent signings, the Tigers brought in five starting position players, a starting pitcher, and a closer, among others. Oh, and the 2006 Tigers added one more piece to the puzzle that's not reflected in these three tables: manager Jim Leyland.

Overall, an excellent building job by Dave Dombrowski and his staff.

Article last updated: October 7, 2019

Wins over positional average and replacement level are calculated using data only for the 2006 season. Positional averages for starting pitching and relief pitching are calculated using single-year data for all starting pitchers and all relief pitchers.

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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