2013 Season

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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2013 Season

The 2013 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

This article takes a look at the 2013 season as measured by Player won-lost records.

The Best of 2013

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Chris Davis	20.7	13.0	6.9	8.6	1	Chris Davis	20.7	13.0	6.9	8.6
2	Max Scherzer	14.1	7.9	6.6	8.0	2	Miguel Cabrera	21.5	15.0	6.4	8.2
3	Miguel Cabrera	21.5	15.0	6.4	8.2	3	Matt Carpenter	23.4	17.0	6.2	8.2
4	Clayton Kershaw	15.6	10.8	6.3	7.8	4	Shin-Soo Choo	23.8	17.0	6.1	8.1
5	Paul Goldschmidt	22.6	15.0	6.2	8.1	5	Paul Goldschmidt	22.6	15.0	6.2	8.1
6	Matt Carpenter	23.4	17.0	6.2	8.2	6	Max Scherzer	14.1	7.9	6.6	8.0
7	Shin-Soo Choo	23.8	17.0	6.1	8.1	7	Andrew McCutchen	23.8	17.3	5.8	7.9
8	Andrew McCutchen	23.8	17.3	5.8	7.9	8	Clayton Kershaw	15.6	10.8	6.3	7.8
9	Zack Greinke	13.5	8.7	5.7	6.9	9	Josh Donaldson	20.3	14.8	5.4	7.2
10	Josh Donaldson	20.3	14.8	5.4	7.2	10	Zack Greinke	13.5	8.7	5.7	6.9

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Mike Trout	21.9	15.4	6.1	7.9	1	Mike Trout	21.9	15.4	6.1	7.9
2	Chris Davis	20.1	13.6	5.8	7.5	2	Shin-Soo Choo	23.6	17.2	5.7	7.7
3	Shin-Soo Choo	23.6	17.2	5.7	7.7	3	Andrew McCutchen	23.7	17.3	5.5	7.6
4	Clayton Kershaw	15.3	11.1	5.6	7.0	4	Chris Davis	20.1	13.6	5.8	7.5
5	Andrew McCutchen	23.7	17.3	5.5	7.6	5	Miguel Cabrera	20.8	15.7	5.3	7.1
6	Max Scherzer	13.6	8.4	5.5	6.9	6	Clayton Kershaw	15.3	11.1	5.6	7.0
7	Miguel Cabrera	20.8	15.7	5.3	7.1	7	Max Scherzer	13.6	8.4	5.5	6.9
8	Paul Goldschmidt	21.9	15.6	4.9	6.8	8	Paul Goldschmidt	21.9	15.6	4.9	6.8
9	Matt Harvey	11.1	7.4	4.7	5.8	9	Matt Carpenter	22.7	17.8	4.6	6.6
10	Matt Carpenter	22.7	17.8	4.6	6.6	10	Josh Donaldson	19.7	15.4	4.2	6.0

I take a look at some of the most interesting players of 2013 at the end of this article.

2013 Postseason

The 2013 postseason began with the Pittsburgh Pirates making their first postseason appearance in 21 seasons and ended with a rematch of the 2004 World Series and the Boston Red Sox third World Series win in 10 seasons.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	pWORL
	2013 Postseason: Total

David Ortiz	BOS	2.4	1.0	1.7
Carlos Beltran	SLN	3.0	1.4	1.6
Michael Wacha	SLN	2.7	1.6	1.5
Jonny Gomes	BOS	2.4	1.1	1.4
Jon Lester	BOS	2.2	1.4	1.1
Shane Victorino	BOS	2.5	1.5	1.1
Clayton Kershaw	LAN	2.0	1.4	1.0
John Lackey	BOS	1.9	1.1	1.0
Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	2.5	1.8	0.9
Adam Wainwright	SLN	2.3	1.9	0.9

Top postseason players by round were as follows.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2013 World Series

David Ortiz	BOS	1.1	0.2	0.8
Jon Lester	BOS	1.2	0.5	0.7
Jonny Gomes	BOS	1.1	0.6	0.5
David Ross	BOS	0.6	0.3	0.3
Shane Victorino	BOS	0.9	0.6	0.3

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2013 Postseason: League Championship Series

Michael Wacha	SLN	1.3	0.4	0.9
Carlos Beltran	SLN	1.3	0.6	0.8
Koji Uehara	BOS	0.8	0.1	0.7
Jonny Gomes	BOS	0.8	0.3	0.5
Hyun-jin Ryu	LAN	0.6	0.2	0.4

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2013 Postseason: Division Series

Carlos Beltran	SLN	1.1	0.3	0.8
Adam Wainwright	SLN	1.1	0.4	0.7
Pedro Alvarez	PIT	1.0	0.4	0.6
Juan Uribe	LAN	1.0	0.4	0.6
Shane Victorino	BOS	0.8	0.2	0.5

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2013 Postseason: Wild Card Round

Alex Cobb	TBA	0.7	0.4	0.3
Desmond Jennings	TBA	0.3	0.0	0.2
Marlon Byrd	NYN	0.3	0.1	0.2

Best of 2013 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 2013 in wins over positional average (WOPA) by factor were as follows.


Batting
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Miguel Cabrera	17.3	10.9	6.3	1	Miguel Cabrera	18.0	10.2	7.7
2	Chris Davis	17.2	10.9	6.2	2	Chris Davis	17.9	10.2	7.6
3	Mike Trout	14.9	9.6	5.3	3	Paul Goldschmidt	18.1	11.3	6.4
4	Paul Goldschmidt	17.4	11.9	5.1	4	Freddie Freeman	16.2	10.4	5.4
5	Joey Votto	15.8	11.0	4.4	5	Matt Holliday	15.5	9.9	5.3
6	Andrew McCutchen	15.2	10.9	3.9	6	Robinson Cano	16.8	12.2	4.5
7	Freddie Freeman	15.4	11.1	3.9	7	David Ortiz	14.3	9.8	4.5
8	Shin-Soo Choo	14.0	9.8	3.8	8	Josh Donaldson	14.7	10.2	4.5
9	Edwin Encarnacion	14.5	10.7	3.8	9	Ryan Zimmerman	14.8	10.1	4.3
10	Jayson Werth	13.3	9.3	3.7	10	Matt Carpenter	15.5	10.9	4.2

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Baserunning
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	2.1	1.0	1.1	1	Elvis Andrus	2.7	1.1	1.6
2	Rajai Davis	1.7	0.6	1.1	2	Jacoby Ellsbury	2.0	1.1	0.9
3	Elvis Andrus	2.4	1.4	1.0	3	Rajai Davis	1.6	0.7	0.9
4	Alexis Rios	1.7	0.9	0.8	4	Brett Gardner	1.7	0.9	0.8
5	Andrew McCutchen	2.0	1.2	0.8	5	Andrew McCutchen	2.0	1.2	0.8
6	Jarrod Dyson	1.1	0.3	0.7	6	Craig Gentry	1.2	0.4	0.8
7	Will Venable	1.4	0.6	0.7	7	Alcides Escobar	1.4	0.6	0.8
8	Craig Gentry	1.1	0.4	0.7	8	Ichiro Suzuki	1.6	0.8	0.7
9	Daniel Murphy	1.9	1.2	0.7	9	Starling Marte	2.1	1.4	0.7
10	Ichiro Suzuki	1.5	0.9	0.6	10	Jarrod Dyson	1.0	0.3	0.7

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Pitching
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLoss	Net pWins
1	Max Scherzer	12.8	8.6	4.2	1	Max Scherzer	13.8	7.5	6.3
2	Matt Harvey	10.0	6.2	3.8	2	Clayton Kershaw	13.3	8.4	4.9
3	Clayton Kershaw	12.7	9.0	3.7	3	Greg Holland	7.6	3.1	4.5
4	Anibal Sanchez	11.2	7.9	3.4	4	Jose D. Fernandez	10.8	6.5	4.4
5	Jose D. Fernandez	10.2	7.1	3.2	5	Clay Buchholz	7.4	3.5	3.9
6	Greg Holland	6.8	3.9	2.8	6	Zack Greinke	11.1	7.4	3.7
7	Koji Uehara	4.6	1.9	2.7	7	Mark Melancon	6.7	3.1	3.6
8	Cliff P. Lee	13.2	10.6	2.6	8	Koji Uehara	5.1	1.4	3.6
9	Doug Fister	11.8	9.3	2.5	9	Craig Kimbrel	6.9	3.6	3.3
10	Clay Buchholz	6.7	4.2	2.4	10	Joe Nathan	6.1	2.7	3.3

Fielding by Position


Fielding, P
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Francisco Liriano	0.8	0.4	0.4	1	Francisco Liriano	0.8	0.4	0.4
2	Todd Redmond	0.4	0.1	0.4	2	Zack Greinke	0.5	0.1	0.4
3	Kyle Kendrick	0.5	0.1	0.4	3	Kyle Kendrick	0.5	0.1	0.3
4	Mike Leake	0.5	0.1	0.3	4	Jeremy Guthrie	0.5	0.1	0.3
5	Andrew Cashner	0.4	0.1	0.3	5	Luke Gregerson	0.4	0.1	0.3


Fielding, C
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Yadier Molina	1.8	1.2	0.6	1	Yadier Molina	1.9	1.2	0.7
2	Yan Gomes	1.4	0.9	0.6	2	Yan Gomes	1.5	0.8	0.6
3	Matt Wieters	1.7	1.2	0.5	3	Matt Wieters	1.7	1.1	0.6
4	Russ Martin	1.9	1.4	0.4	4	A.J. Ellis	1.3	0.9	0.4
5	Welington Castillo	1.6	1.2	0.4	5	Salvador Perez	1.5	1.1	0.4


Fielding, 1B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Eric Hosmer	2.9	2.2	0.8	1	Nick Swisher	2.4	1.6	0.9
2	Paul Goldschmidt	3.3	2.8	0.4	2	Allen Craig	1.8	1.2	0.6
3	Mike Napoli	1.8	1.4	0.4	3	Paul Goldschmidt	3.3	2.8	0.5
4	Matt Adams	1.0	0.8	0.3	4	Joey Votto	3.0	2.5	0.5
5	Logan Morrison	1.5	1.2	0.2	5	Eric Hosmer	2.7	2.3	0.4


Fielding, 2B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Dustin Pedroia	5.8	4.8	1.1	1	Ian Kinsler	5.2	3.7	1.5
2	Ian Kinsler	4.8	4.1	0.8	2	Dustin Pedroia	5.9	4.6	1.3
3	DJ LeMahieu	3.7	3.2	0.5	3	Matt Carpenter	5.3	4.3	1.0
4	Danny Espinosa	1.8	1.3	0.5	4	Mark Ellis	4.4	3.7	0.7
5	Ben Zobrist	4.3	3.8	0.5	5	Chris Getz	2.8	2.1	0.6


Fielding, 3B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Manny Machado	5.3	3.8	1.5	1	Juan Uribe	4.3	2.2	2.1
2	Juan Uribe	3.7	2.8	0.9	2	Manny Machado	5.3	3.8	1.5
3	Matt Dominguez	4.9	4.1	0.9	3	Evan Longoria	4.9	3.6	1.3
4	Evan Longoria	4.6	4.0	0.6	4	Josh Donaldson	4.8	3.7	1.1
5	Jeff Bianchi	1.2	0.7	0.6	5	Luis Valbuena	2.6	1.8	0.8


Fielding, SS
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Andrelton Simmons	7.1	5.6	1.5	1	Andrelton Simmons	7.1	5.7	1.4
2	Brendan Ryan	4.4	3.7	0.7	2	Zack Cozart	5.9	4.7	1.2
3	J.J. Hardy	5.8	5.3	0.5	3	Yunel Escobar	6.7	5.7	1.0
4	Pete Kozma	5.1	4.6	0.5	4	Pete Kozma	5.3	4.4	1.0
5	Everth Cabrera	4.1	3.7	0.5	5	J.J. Hardy	6.0	5.2	0.8


Fielding, LF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Alex Gordon	7.6	6.3	1.4	1	Alex Gordon	8.1	5.8	2.4
2	Logan Schafer	2.0	1.1	0.9	2	Yoenis Cespedes	4.8	2.8	2.0
3	Yoenis Cespedes	4.0	3.5	0.5	3	Starling Marte	4.4	3.1	1.3
4	Starling Marte	4.0	3.5	0.5	4	David Murphy	4.8	3.9	1.0
5	Chris Heisey	1.6	1.2	0.5	5	Clete Thomas	1.5	0.7	0.8


Fielding, CF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Shin-Soo Choo	7.2	5.7	1.6	1	Shin-Soo Choo	7.6	5.3	2.4
2	Juan Lagares	4.6	3.5	1.1	2	Andrew McCutchen	6.8	5.0	1.8
3	Carlos Gomez	6.2	5.1	1.1	3	Juan Lagares	4.7	3.4	1.3
4	Denard Span	6.3	5.5	0.8	4	Denard Span	6.5	5.3	1.3
5	Andrew McCutchen	6.3	5.6	0.7	5	Leonys Martin	4.7	3.5	1.2


Fielding, RF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Jay Bruce	7.9	6.2	1.7	1	Jay Bruce	8.4	5.7	2.7
2	Norichika Aoki	5.9	4.5	1.4	2	Josh Reddick	5.9	3.9	2.0
3	Josh Reddick	5.5	4.3	1.2	3	Norichika Aoki	6.0	4.3	1.7
4	Shane Victorino	4.7	3.7	1.0	4	Gerardo Parra	6.5	4.9	1.6
5	Gerardo Parra	6.1	5.3	0.8	5	Shane Victorino	4.9	3.5	1.4

Best by Position

Next, we look at 2013 Major-League leaders by position. The figures shown here only include Player decisions earned while playing this particular position.


Catcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Yadier Molina	14.8	12.2	2.8	1	Yadier Molina	15.7	11.3	4.6
2	Jason Castro	10.2	8.7	1.8	2	Derek Norris	8.2	5.4	3.1
3	Joe Mauer	7.7	6.2	1.7	3	Brian McCann	10.8	7.9	3.0
4	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	10.0	8.9	1.4	4	Alex Avila	9.5	7.9	1.9
5	Yan Gomes	7.7	6.6	1.4	5	Carlos Santana	7.8	6.5	1.6


First Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Chris Davis	18.9	13.3	4.6	1	Paul Goldschmidt	22.6	15.0	6.3
2	Paul Goldschmidt	21.7	15.8	4.5	2	Chris Davis	19.4	12.8	5.7
3	Freddie Freeman	19.2	14.5	3.3	3	Freddie Freeman	20.1	13.7	5.1
4	Joey Votto	19.7	15.3	3.0	4	Mike Napoli	15.1	10.9	3.5
5	Prince Fielder	18.0	15.7	1.3	5	Joey Votto	19.9	15.1	3.4


Second Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Robinson Cano	22.2	19.0	3.4	1	Robinson Cano	23.0	18.2	5.1
2	Matt Carpenter	18.2	14.8	3.4	2	Matt Carpenter	18.8	14.2	4.5
3	Ian Kinsler	17.9	15.2	2.8	3	Ian Kinsler	18.3	14.8	3.8
4	Jason Kipnis	19.6	17.3	2.6	4	Jason Kipnis	20.2	16.7	3.7
5	Dustin Pedroia	20.8	18.8	2.3	5	Dustin Pedroia	21.5	18.2	3.6


Third Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Miguel Cabrera	20.7	15.7	5.0	1	Miguel Cabrera	21.4	15.0	6.4
2	Josh Donaldson	19.3	15.4	3.8	2	Josh Donaldson	20.0	14.7	5.2
3	Adrian Beltre	18.6	15.5	3.1	3	Juan Uribe	14.3	9.6	4.4
4	Evan Longoria	18.8	15.8	2.9	4	Evan Longoria	19.4	15.3	4.1
5	David Wright	15.6	12.6	2.7	5	Ryan Zimmerman	19.3	15.3	3.6


Shortstop
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Hanley Ramirez	12.1	9.2	3.2	1	Hanley Ramirez	12.7	8.6	4.3
2	Troy Tulowitzki	16.8	14.0	3.1	2	Jhonny Peralta	14.3	11.8	3.0
3	Andrelton Simmons	20.8	19.2	2.1	3	Andrelton Simmons	21.1	18.9	2.8
4	Everth Cabrera	13.2	11.8	1.8	4	Everth Cabrera	13.6	11.4	2.5
5	Ian Desmond	21.3	20.2	1.7	5	Stephen Drew	15.5	13.8	2.4


Left Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Matt Holliday	19.4	16.1	2.6	1	Matt Holliday	20.4	16.1	4.7
2	Carlos Gonzalez	15.2	12.6	2.1	2	Yoenis Cespedes	14.5	11.5	4.6
3	Alex Gordon	21.8	19.4	2.1	3	Starling Marte	17.0	13.7	4.2
4	Justin Upton	13.3	10.8	2.0	4	Bryce Harper	13.8	11.1	2.7
5	Bryce Harper	13.4	11.1	1.9	5	Carlos Gonzalez	15.4	12.6	2.6


Center Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Andrew McCutchen	23.4	17.5	5.2	1	Shin-Soo Choo	23.4	16.8	5.9
2	Shin-Soo Choo	23.0	17.2	5.1	2	Andrew McCutchen	23.7	17.1	5.8
3	Mike Trout	15.6	10.8	4.6	3	Adam Jones	22.9	18.9	3.6
4	Carlos Gomez	20.5	16.7	3.2	4	Coco Crisp	15.0	11.5	3.1
5	Coco Crisp	14.6	11.9	2.3	5	Mike Trout	14.7	11.7	2.7


Right Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jay Bruce	24.3	19.5	3.4	1	Jay Bruce	24.9	18.9	4.7
2	Jayson Werth	18.4	14.7	2.6	2	Yasiel Puig	13.3	9.6	3.0
3	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	15.0	12.0	2.4	3	Shane Victorino	15.5	12.2	2.7
4	Marlon Byrd	20.2	17.0	2.1	4	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	15.0	12.1	2.3
5	Shane Victorino	15.1	12.6	1.9	5	Josh Reddick	14.6	12.0	2.1


Starting Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Max Scherzer	13.0	8.9	4.4	1	Max Scherzer	14.0	7.8	6.5
2	Matt Harvey	10.2	6.3	4.1	2	Clayton Kershaw	13.6	8.6	5.3
3	Clayton Kershaw	13.0	9.3	4.0	3	Jose D. Fernandez	11.0	6.6	4.7
4	Anibal Sanchez	11.5	8.2	3.5	4	Zack Greinke	11.6	7.6	4.3
5	Jose D. Fernandez	10.4	7.2	3.4	5	Clay Buchholz	7.5	3.6	4.1
6	Cliff P. Lee	13.4	10.8	2.9	6	Adam Wainwright	14.1	10.7	3.7
7	Chris Sale	13.8	11.4	2.7	7	Hisashi Iwakuma	12.0	8.9	3.4
8	Justin Masterson	12.8	10.4	2.7	8	Bartolo Colon	12.3	9.3	3.3
9	Adam Wainwright	13.5	11.2	2.6	9	Matt Harvey	9.8	6.7	3.3
10	Doug Fister	12.0	9.7	2.6	10	Jordan Zimmermann	14.0	11.1	3.3


Relief Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Greg Holland	6.8	3.9	2.6	1	Greg Holland	7.7	3.1	4.3
2	Koji Uehara	4.7	2.0	2.5	2	Koji Uehara	5.1	1.5	3.4
3	Mark Melancon	6.1	3.8	2.1	3	Mark Melancon	6.8	3.1	3.4
4	Craig Kimbrel	6.5	4.2	2.0	4	Joe Nathan	6.3	2.8	3.3
5	Steve Cishek	5.9	3.7	1.9	5	Ernesto Frieri	8.0	4.5	3.2
6	Joe Nathan	5.5	3.6	1.7	6	Mariano Rivera	7.1	3.7	3.1
7	Mariano Rivera	6.4	4.5	1.6	7	Craig Kimbrel	7.0	3.7	3.0
8	Kenley Jansen	5.8	4.0	1.6	8	Casey Janssen	5.2	2.0	3.0
9	Glen Perkins	4.6	3.0	1.4	9	Kenley Jansen	6.6	3.3	3.0
10	David Robertson	5.1	3.7	1.3	10	Glen Perkins	5.3	2.3	2.7


Designated Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	David Ortiz	13.7	10.6	3.1	1	David Ortiz	14.2	10.1	4.2
2	Edwin Encarnacion	5.7	4.2	1.5	2	Edwin Encarnacion	5.8	4.1	1.7
3	Josh Hamilton	4.0	3.0	1.0	3	Josh Hamilton	4.3	2.7	1.6

Finally, here are the best at three oft-forgotten positions that can nevertheless matter: pitcher offense, pinch hitting, and pinch running.


Pitcher Offense
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Zack Greinke	1.6	1.4	1.0	1	Zack Greinke	1.9	1.2	1.4
2	Travis Wood	1.2	1.3	0.6	2	Clayton Kershaw	2.0	2.1	1.0
3	Clayton Kershaw	1.6	2.5	0.5	3	Mike Minor	1.3	1.3	0.7


Pinch Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Evan Gattis	1.7	0.2	1.5	1	Evan Gattis	1.8	0.1	1.7
2	Jonny Gomes	1.2	0.5	0.8	2	Jesus Guzman	2.3	1.1	1.2
3	Jason Giambi	1.1	0.6	0.6	3	Jonny Gomes	1.4	0.3	1.1


Pinch Runner
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Billy Hamilton	0.3	0.0	0.3	1	Billy Hamilton	0.4	0.0	0.4
2	Josh Rutledge	0.2	0.0	0.2	2	Jarrod Dyson	0.3	0.0	0.2
3	Reymond Fuentes	0.2	0.0	0.2	3	Doug Bernier	0.2	0.0	0.1

Noteworthy Players of 2013

Cabrera vs. Trout: Again

For the second year in a row, the top two finishers in the American League MVP voting were Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. In 2012, there was very little question about which of Trout or Cabrera was better by most sabermetric stats (including Player won-lost records). In 2013, on the other hand, the debate between Trout and Cabrera is somewhat more interesting. Specifically, it boils down to this: how much does context matter in determining player value?

The next table compares Miguel Cabrera's and Mike Trout's seasons, in and out of context.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
Miguel Cabrera	147	21.5	15.0	0.588	6.4	8.2	20.8	15.7	0.570	5.3	7.1
Mike Trout	157	20.9	16.5	0.560	4.1	6.0	21.9	15.4	0.587	6.1	7.9

Mike Trout's 2013 performance translated into 1.9 fewer actual wins than expected. Miguel Cabrera's 2013 performance translated into 1.1 more actual wins than expected.

Part of this was because Trout's teammates were not as good as Cabrera's teammates, and so Trout had fewer opportunities to contribute to wins. But much of the difference was based on how the two of them performed in the most win-important situations.

In tie games, Mike Trout batted .301/.389/.593 with 32 RBI in 244 PAs. In games where the score margin was more than four runs (in either team's favor), Trout batted .466/.547/.863 with 24 RBI in 86 PAs. Trout's OPS by leverage in low-medium-high leverage went 1.055-1.035-.713; Trout batted .257/.386/.327 in 132 high-leverage plate appareances with only one home run.

In tie games, Miguel Cabrera batted .364/.462/.695 with 43 RBI in 223 PAs. In games where the score margin was more than four runs, Cabrera batted .250/.304/.375. Cabrera's OPS by leverage in low-medium-high leverage went .968-1.161-1.188; Cabrera batted .323/.459/.729 in 122 high-leverage plate appearances with 11 home runs.

I'm not suggesting that these splits are predictive of other seasons or necessarily reflect a talent of either player. But, in 2013, they really happened, and they contributed to real wins by the Detroit Tigers who could have missed the playoffs had they won as little as two fewer games. Based on that, Miguel Cabrera would have probably placed higher than Mike Trout on my 2013 AL MVP ballot.

But Wait, There's One More AL MVP Candidate: Chris Davis

Miguel Cabrera was better than Mike Trout in pWins over both positional average and replacement level. But Miguel Cabrera was not the best player in the American League in 2013 in either of those measures. Based on Player won-lost records, the best player in pWOPA and pWORL not only in the American League but in all of major-league baseball was Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis.

I am (re)-writing this article in 2019 when Chris Davis's primary claims to fame are a multi-year contract worth over $100 million and a stretch in 2018-19 over which he went 0-for-54. Well, the 2013 season is mostly what earned Davis that $161 million contract. In 2013, Davis batted .286/.370/.634 and led the major leagues in home runs (53), RBI (138), and total bases (370).

The next table presents the career record of Chris Davis to date, as measured by Player won-lost records. The slow start and unfortunate end have unfortunately obscured what really was an excellent prime.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
2008	TEX	22	80	7.3	7.7	-0.1	-0.8
2009	TEX	23	113	9.8	9.7	0.1	-0.8
2010	TEX	24	45	1.9	3.0	-1.0	-1.2
+– 2011		25	59	4.9	5.6	-0.3	-0.8
	BAL		31	3.2	3.5	-0.1	-0.4
	TEX		28	1.7	2.1	-0.3	-0.4
2012	BAL	26	139	14.5	12.2	3.3	1.8
2013	BAL	27	160	20.7	13.0	8.6	6.9
2014	BAL	28	127	14.1	12.0	2.7	1.5
2015	BAL	29	160	20.1	15.7	5.2	3.4
2016	BAL	30	157	17.8	16.0	2.5	1.0
2017	BAL	31	128	10.4	13.1	-2.6	-3.7
2018	BAL	32	128	8.4	13.6	-4.8	-5.8
2019	BAL	33	105	7.0	8.6	-1.0	-1.9
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			1,401	136.9	130.4	12.7	-0.4
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			7	0.6	0.8	-0.1	-0.2
			------	------	------	------	------
2012 - 2016			743	87.1	68.9	22.3	14.6

NL Central Center Fielders: Andrew McCutchen vs. Shin-Soo Choo

Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen was voted the Most Valuable Player in the National League. Based on the tables shown above, McCutchen wasn't necessarily even the best center fielder in his own division. This is not a knock on Andrew McCutchen so much as this: Player won-lost records really, really, really liked Shin-Soo Choo's 2013 season for the Reds.

The next table compares Andrew McCutchen's and Shin-Soo Choo's 2013 seasons as measured by Player won-lost records.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWin Pct.	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.	eWOPA	eWORL
Andrew McCutchen	157	23.8	17.3	0.580	5.8	7.9	23.7	17.3	0.578	5.5	7.6
Shin-Soo Choo	154	23.8	17.0	0.584	6.1	8.1	23.6	17.2	0.579	5.7	7.7

Unlike Cabrera vs. Trout, this one doesn't really have anything to do with context. To see what it does have to do with, the next table breaks McCutchen's and Choo's (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) Player won-lost records by factor: batting, baserunning, and fielding.

	Batting			Baserunning			Fielding
	Wins	Losses	WOPA	Wins	Losses	WOPA	Wins	Losses	WOPA
Andrew McCutchen	15.2	10.9	3.9	2.0	1.2	0.8	6.2	5.6	0.7
Shin-Soo Choo	14.0	9.8	3.8	1.9	1.9	-0.0	7.4	5.7	1.7

I think that there are two things that this table reveals. First, Shin-Soo Choo really did have an excellent offensive season in 2013. He was second in the National League in on-base percentage (.423), times on base (300), and runs scored (107). McCutchen had a somewhat higher slugging percentage (.508 to .462), but even in terms of power, Choo matched McCutchen with 21 home runs. McCutchen gained a few runs on Choo for his baserunning, so, overall McCutchen was the better offensive player, but Shin-Soo Choo had an outstanding offensive season in 2013.

Second, and undoubtedly more controversial, the reason why Shin-Soo Choo beats Andrew McCutchen in Player won-lost records is because, according to Player won-lost records, Shin-Soo Choo was one of the best defensive centerfielders in the major leagues. I have to be honest here: Player won-lost records are my baby and I love them, but I have pretty serious doubts about this result. Shin-Soo Choo was a corner outfielder playing out of position. Baseball-Reference shows Choo as -18 defensive runs according to BIS, Fangraphs shows Choo with a -6.3 UZR.

Why am I showing Choo as so much better? The one statistic that Choo has in his favor is that the Reds led the major-leagues in defensive efficiency at .715. They also led the major leagues in Total Zone runs (reported by Baseball-Reference) and, in fact, Choo rated as +17 runs in Total Zone. Fangraphs shows the Reds fifth in MLB based on UZR, while BIS's defensive runs saves (Rdrs on Baseball-Reference) has the Reds a more pedestrian ninth in the major leagues. Player won-lost records, on the other hand, show the Reds as the best fielding team in the majors.

At the team level, I'm more inclined to believe that the team with the best defensive efficiency should have the best fielding statistics. So, certainly, I think that's a point in favor of Player won-lost records' view of the Reds as a team. But whether that translates into Shin-Soo Choo really being the best defensive CF in baseball? I'm skeptical of that one. On the other hand, Choo had 32 more putouts than McCutchen in 16 fewer innings and the Reds allowed 75 fewer hits on balls-in-play than the Pirates. So, you know, maybe Player won-lost records are right here.

If you adjust the above numbers to take away Shin-Soo Choo's fielding edge on Andrew McCutchen, McCutchen moves ahead of Choo in Player wins over either positional average or replacement level.

Last Hurrahs

Finally, 2013 was the final season for two longtime teammates who won five World Series together: Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera.

The next table compares their career records, as measured by Player won-lost records. The numbers in this table include postseason games, since the postseason was such a large part of both of their careers.

Season	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Andy Pettitte					Mariano Rivera
1995	32	10.8	9.9	0.9	2.3	22	4.2	4.3	-0.1	0.6
1996	40	16.7	12.5	4.5	6.4	69	10.9	3.9	6.9	8.4
1997	37	14.3	9.0	5.4	7.0	68	7.4	4.4	2.9	4.1
1998	36	15.1	13.2	2.1	4.1	64	7.6	2.2	5.4	6.3
1999	34	13.1	12.1	1.1	2.7	74	7.9	2.7	5.0	6.2
2000	37	15.1	11.7	3.6	5.4	76	9.0	4.4	4.5	5.9
2001	36	15.4	12.8	3.0	4.9	82	10.9	5.0	5.6	7.3
2002	23	9.5	6.5	3.2	4.3	46	5.0	3.9	1.0	1.9
2003	38	17.0	13.3	4.0	6.0	72	8.5	3.0	5.4	6.6
2004	15	5.6	5.0	1.0	1.6	83	10.6	4.0	6.3	7.7
2005	37	15.3	11.3	5.1	6.6	73	8.1	3.3	4.6	5.9
2006	38	14.8	14.6	1.3	3.0	64	7.0	3.4	3.4	4.5
2007	37	12.6	11.0	2.0	3.7	70	6.6	4.0	2.3	3.5
2008	33	12.9	13.5	-0.4	1.4	64	7.5	2.6	4.7	5.8
2009	37	14.8	11.6	3.5	5.2	78	7.4	3.4	3.8	4.9
2010	23	9.5	6.9	2.7	3.7	67	6.0	3.4	2.5	3.6
2011						66	6.3	2.8	3.3	4.2
2012	14	4.5	4.5	0.1	0.7	9	0.7	0.3	0.4	0.5
2013	30	10.7	9.9	1.1	2.4	64	7.1	3.7	3.1	4.3
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	577	227.6	189.3	44.3	71.7	1,211	138.8	64.6	71.1	92.2

Article last updated: September 10, 2019

Wins over positional average and replacement level are calculated using data only for the 2013 season. Positional averages for starting pitching and relief pitching are calculated using single-year data for all starting pitchers and all relief pitchers.

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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