2015 Season

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
Home List of Articles

2015 Season

The 2015 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

I continue my journey back through the seasons for which I have calculated Player won-lost records with a recent season that I'm sure is near and dear to Kansas City area baseball fans. This article takes a look at the 2015 season as measured by Player won-lost records.

The Best of 2015

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Jake Arrieta	17.7	10.8	8.3	9.9	1	Jake Arrieta	17.7	10.8	8.3	9.9
2	Mike Trout	23.8	15.7	7.8	9.7	2	Bryce Harper	26.3	17.5	7.8	9.8
3	Bryce Harper	26.3	17.5	7.8	9.8	3	Mike Trout	23.8	15.7	7.8	9.7
4	Matt Carpenter	22.7	14.8	7.3	9.0	4	Matt Carpenter	22.7	14.8	7.3	9.0
5	Josh Donaldson	24.2	17.0	6.9	8.8	5	Josh Donaldson	24.2	17.0	6.9	8.8
6	Anthony Rizzo	22.2	13.9	6.8	8.5	6	Anthony Rizzo	22.2	13.9	6.8	8.5
7	Zack Greinke	15.2	9.6	6.7	8.2	7	Zack Greinke	15.2	9.6	6.7	8.2
8	Andrew McCutchen	22.3	15.2	6.4	8.2	8	Andrew McCutchen	22.3	15.2	6.4	8.2
9	Kris Bryant	23.0	16.0	6.2	8.1	9	Kris Bryant	23.0	16.0	6.2	8.1
10	Yoenis Cespedes	23.0	16.8	5.9	7.8	10	Yoenis Cespedes	23.0	16.8	5.9	7.8

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Jake Arrieta	17.7	10.8	8.4	10.1	1	Jake Arrieta	17.7	10.8	8.4	10.1
2	Bryce Harper	26.4	17.3	8.0	10.0	2	Bryce Harper	26.4	17.3	8.0	10.0
3	Mike Trout	23.1	16.4	6.2	8.1	3	Mike Trout	23.1	16.4	6.2	8.1
4	Clayton Kershaw	15.6	10.6	6.2	7.7	4	Josh Donaldson	23.6	17.5	5.8	7.7
5	Josh Donaldson	23.6	17.5	5.8	7.7	5	Clayton Kershaw	15.6	10.6	6.2	7.7
6	Dallas Keuchel	16.2	11.1	5.5	7.3	6	Dallas Keuchel	16.2	11.1	5.5	7.3
7	Paul Goldschmidt	20.9	14.0	5.4	7.0	7	Paul Goldschmidt	20.9	14.0	5.4	7.0
8	Zack Greinke	14.3	10.5	4.9	6.4	8	Zack Greinke	14.3	10.5	4.9	6.4
9	Yoenis Cespedes	22.3	17.5	4.5	6.3	9	Yoenis Cespedes	22.3	17.5	4.5	6.3
10	Jacob deGrom	13.3	10.2	4.2	5.6	10	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	20.4	15.6	4.1	5.9

I take a look at some of the most interesting players of 2015 at the end of this article.

2015 Postseason

The 2015 postseason was a wonderful celebration of new and exciting teams. Entering the playoffs, only 2 of the 10 2015 playoff teams had won a World Series in the Wild Card era (i.e., since 1995) and these two teams were two of the first three teams eliminated in 2015.

The NLCS featured a classic matchup of great young hitters vs. great young pitchers. The ALCS featured a classic matchup of power vs. speed. Pitching and speed won, and the World Series saw a wonderful performance that gave Kansas City its first championship in 30 years. The top players of the 2015 postseason are shown in the tables below.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	pWORL
	2015 Postseason: Total

Alex Gordon	KCA	2.6	1.7	1.1
Marco Estrada	TOR	1.5	0.6	1.1
Wade Davis	KCA	1.3	0.4	1.1
Jacob deGrom	NYN	2.1	1.5	1.0
Eric Hosmer	KCA	2.4	1.5	0.9
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	1.3	0.6	0.9
Mike Moustakas	KCA	2.2	1.4	0.9
Alcides Escobar	KCA	2.2	1.6	0.9
Curtis Granderson	NYN	2.5	1.7	0.8
Jorge Soler	CHN	1.3	0.6	0.8

Top postseason players by round were as follows.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2015 World Series

Mike Moustakas	KCA	1.0	0.4	0.6
Eric Hosmer	KCA	1.0	0.5	0.5
Alex Gordon	KCA	1.0	0.5	0.5
Ben Zobrist	KCA	0.8	0.4	0.4
Johnny Cueto	CIN	0.5	0.2	0.3

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2015 Postseason: League Championship Series

Lucas Duda	NYN	1.0	0.2	0.7
Daniel Murphy	NYN	0.9	0.3	0.7
Yoenis Cespedes	DET	0.8	0.3	0.5
David Wright	NYN	0.9	0.4	0.5
Alcides Escobar	KCA	1.0	0.5	0.5

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2015 Postseason: Division Series

Jorge Soler	CHN	1.0	0.2	0.8
Jacob deGrom	NYN	1.3	0.6	0.8
Josh Donaldson	TOR	1.0	0.4	0.6
Justin Turner	LAN	1.0	0.4	0.5
Salvador Perez	KCA	0.8	0.3	0.5

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2015 Postseason: Wild Card Round

Kyle Schwarber	CHN	0.6	0.0	0.5
Jake Arrieta	CHN	0.8	0.3	0.5
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	0.6	0.2	0.4

Just for fun, the next table compares the 2015 World Champion Royals with the only other Kansas City Royals team to win the World Series: the 1985 Royals. The 1985 Royals had bigger stars - Bret Saberhagen, George Brett - but the 2015 Royals had a deeper list of contributors. Both teams, of course, were excellent.

1985 vs. 2015 Kansas City Royals: Players sorted by pWORL

	1985 Royals					2015 Royals
Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
Bret Saberhagen	15.8	8.5	7.5	9.1	Lorenzo Cain	21.4	16.8	4.3	6.1
George Brett	22.2	15.4	6.8	8.6	Eric Hosmer	18.9	14.1	3.8	5.3
Dan Quisenberry	10.5	7.0	3.3	5.1	Wade Davis	5.5	2.1	3.3	4.1
Charlie Leibrandt	14.0	11.1	3.0	4.6	Edison Volquez	13.1	11.0	2.4	4.0
Hal McRae	9.6	6.9	2.6	3.7	Kendry Morales	15.3	12.5	2.1	4.0
Danny Jackson	13.0	11.0	2.1	3.7	Alex Gordon	12.7	10.1	2.5	3.6
Steve Balboni	16.6	14.5	0.8	2.3	Mike Moustakas	18.7	16.5	1.8	3.5
Mark Gubicza	10.3	9.7	0.7	2.0	Salvador Perez	13.0	12.0	1.8	3.0
Frank White	18.6	18.8	-0.0	1.7	Ryan Madson	4.5	2.1	2.2	2.9
Willie Wilson	18.0	18.0	-0.4	1.3	Greg Holland	5.2	3.1	2.0	2.9
Jim Sundberg	8.4	8.4	0.4	1.2	Yordano Ventura	10.6	9.7	1.2	2.5
Lonnie Smith	14.7	14.3	-0.3	1.1	Kelvin Herrera	5.5	4.0	1.4	2.4
Buddy Biancalana	5.3	5.3	0.4	0.9	Alcides Escobar	17.6	17.7	0.7	2.4
Bud Black	12.6	13.6	-0.8	0.8	Omar Infante	12.2	11.9	0.6	1.7
Darryl Motley	12.4	12.4	-0.4	0.8	Chris R. Young	6.9	6.2	0.8	1.7
Jorge Orta	6.5	6.7	-0.2	0.7	Jarrod Dyson	7.0	6.0	0.9	1.5
Steve Farr	2.4	2.2	0.2	0.6	Ben Zobrist	7.5	6.9	0.6	1.3
Omar Moreno	2.2	1.9	0.3	0.5	Jason Vargas	3.2	2.7	0.6	1.0
Pat Sheridan	6.3	6.3	-0.2	0.4	Kris Medlen	3.3	2.8	0.6	1.0
Mark Huismann	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.4	Luke Hochevar	2.1	1.6	0.4	0.8
Joe Beckwith	3.4	3.9	-0.5	0.2	Joe Blanton	2.2	1.9	0.4	0.7
Onix Concepcion	10.0	11.7	-0.9	0.1	Danny Duffy	8.8	9.5	-0.6	0.6
Mike LaCoss	1.8	2.0	-0.3	0.1	Franklin Morales	2.3	2.3	-0.1	0.4
Jim Scranton	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	Jason Frasor	0.9	0.8	0.1	0.3
Dennis Leonard	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	Jonny Gomes	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.3
Bob Hegman	0.0	0.0	-0.0	-0.0	Cheslor Cuthbert	1.1	1.0	0.1	0.2
Tony Ferreira	0.2	0.3	-0.1	-0.0	Paulo Orlando	6.9	7.3	-0.5	0.1
Jamie Quirk	1.3	1.6	-0.2	-0.1	Brandon Finnegan	0.6	0.7	-0.1	0.1
Dane Iorg	3.8	4.3	-0.5	-0.1	Drew Butera	1.5	1.6	-0.1	0.1
John Wathan	3.1	3.7	-0.4	-0.1	Louis Coleman	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
Mike C. Jones	1.6	2.3	-0.7	-0.3	Terrance Gore	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Larry Gura	0.2	0.6	-0.4	-0.3	Aaron Brooks	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Dave Leeper	1.0	1.6	-0.6	-0.5	Adalberto Mondesi	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Lynn Jones	4.2	5.1	-1.0	-0.6	Scott Alexander	0.0	0.0	-0.0	-0.0
Greg Pryor	2.3	3.5	-1.1	-0.8	Michael Mariot	0.0	0.0	-0.0	-0.0
					Orlando Calixte	0.0	0.1	-0.0	-0.0
					Joba Chamberlain	0.1	0.1	-0.1	-0.0
					Christian Colon	2.9	3.4	-0.4	-0.1
					Yohan Pino	0.6	0.9	-0.2	-0.1
					Alexis Rios	10.8	11.5	-1.2	-0.1
					Eric Kratz	0.0	0.2	-0.1	-0.1
					Francisco Pena	0.0	0.3	-0.2	-0.2
					Dusty Coleman	0.0	0.4	-0.3	-0.3
					Jeremy Guthrie	8.6	10.6	-1.8	-0.5
					Miguel Almonte	0.1	0.8	-0.7	-0.6
					Johnny Cueto	4.0	5.4	-1.3	-0.7

Best of 2015 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 2015 in wins over positional average (WOPA) by factor were as follows.


Batting
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Bryce Harper	17.9	10.2	7.4	1	Bryce Harper	17.9	10.3	7.3
2	Paul Goldschmidt	15.9	10.2	5.4	2	Anthony Rizzo	18.2	10.7	7.2
3	Joey Votto	15.2	9.8	5.1	3	Josh Donaldson	18.3	11.7	6.5
4	Mike Trout	15.7	10.5	5.1	4	Mike Trout	16.3	9.9	6.3
5	Josh Donaldson	17.4	12.6	4.7	5	Matt Carpenter	16.3	9.9	6.1
6	Chris Davis	16.5	11.8	4.6	6	Kris Bryant	17.2	10.9	6.1
7	Edwin Encarnacion	15.5	11.1	4.3	7	Edwin Encarnacion	16.2	10.4	5.7
8	Anthony Rizzo	16.7	12.2	4.2	8	Andrew McCutchen	15.4	9.6	5.5
9	Nelson R. Cruz	14.5	10.4	4.0	9	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	15.4	10.1	5.2
10	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	14.7	10.8	3.8	10	Chris Davis	16.6	11.6	4.9

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Baserunning
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Billy Hamilton	2.2	0.7	1.4	1	Billy Hamilton	2.3	0.6	1.6
2	Erick Aybar	2.0	1.3	0.7	2	Adam C. Eaton	2.1	1.2	0.9
3	Adam C. Eaton	2.0	1.4	0.6	3	A.J. Pollock	1.7	0.9	0.8
4	Ben Revere	1.8	1.2	0.6	4	Alcides Escobar	1.4	0.7	0.7
5	A.J. Pollock	1.6	1.0	0.5	5	George Springer	1.4	0.7	0.7
6	Jarrod Dyson	0.8	0.2	0.5	6	Lorenzo Cain	1.8	1.1	0.7
7	Josh Donaldson	1.2	0.7	0.5	7	Erick Aybar	2.0	1.3	0.6
8	Paul Goldschmidt	1.5	1.0	0.4	8	Paul Goldschmidt	1.6	0.9	0.6
9	Matt M. Duffy	1.2	0.7	0.4	9	Jarrod Dyson	0.8	0.2	0.6
10	Will Venable	0.9	0.5	0.4	10	Freddy Galvis	1.1	0.6	0.6

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Pitching
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLoss	Net pWins
1	Jake Arrieta	15.5	9.2	6.3	1	Jake Arrieta	16.2	8.5	7.6
2	Clayton Kershaw	14.0	9.3	4.7	2	Zack Greinke	14.1	7.9	6.1
3	Dallas Keuchel	14.9	11.0	3.9	3	Clayton Kershaw	14.4	8.9	5.5
4	Zack Greinke	12.6	9.4	3.2	4	David Price	14.0	8.7	5.3
5	Chris Archer	13.4	10.5	2.9	5	Mark Melancon	7.1	2.6	4.5
6	Jacob deGrom	11.4	8.6	2.8	6	Zach Britton	6.2	1.9	4.3
7	Carlos Carrasco	11.2	8.4	2.8	7	Dellin Betances	8.6	4.6	4.1
8	Zach Britton	5.4	2.7	2.7	8	Gerrit Cole	13.1	9.3	3.8
9	Jaime Garcia	8.9	6.2	2.7	9	Dallas Keuchel	14.8	11.1	3.7
10	Max Scherzer	13.6	11.1	2.4	10	Andrew Miller	6.3	2.6	3.7

Fielding by Position


Fielding, P
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Jason Hammel	0.6	0.1	0.4	1	Dallas Keuchel	0.8	0.4	0.5
2	Julio Teheran	0.6	0.2	0.4	2	Jason Hammel	0.6	0.1	0.4
3	Dallas Keuchel	0.8	0.4	0.4	3	Jake Arrieta	0.8	0.4	0.4
4	Drew Hutchison	0.4	0.1	0.3	4	Julio Teheran	0.6	0.2	0.4
5	Hector Santiago	0.4	0.1	0.3	5	Hector Santiago	0.4	0.0	0.3


Fielding, C
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Wilson Ramos	1.4	1.0	0.5	1	Wilson Ramos	1.5	0.9	0.6
2	Caleb Joseph	1.2	0.8	0.4	2	Caleb Joseph	1.3	0.8	0.5
3	Rene Rivera	1.2	0.9	0.2	3	Yadier Molina	1.8	1.3	0.5
4	Jesus Sucre	0.7	0.5	0.2	4	Carlos E. Perez	1.3	0.9	0.4
5	James McCann	1.1	0.9	0.2	5	James McCann	1.2	0.8	0.4


Fielding, 1B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Adrian Gonzalez	3.1	2.1	0.9	1	Adrian Gonzalez	2.9	2.3	0.7
2	Mike Napoli	2.0	1.4	0.6	2	Anthony Rizzo	2.6	2.1	0.5
3	Miguel Cabrera	2.2	1.8	0.4	3	Paul Goldschmidt	3.3	2.9	0.4
4	Ben Paulsen	1.2	0.9	0.3	4	Brandon Belt	2.1	1.8	0.4
5	Freddie Freeman	1.9	1.6	0.3	5	Joe Mauer	2.8	2.4	0.4


Fielding, 2B
		Context-Neutral				Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins	Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins