2015 Season

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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2015 Season

The 2015 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

I continue my journey back through the seasons for which I have calculated Player won-lost records with a recent season that I'm sure is near and dear to Kansas City area baseball fans. This article takes a look at the 2015 season as measured by Player won-lost records.

The Best of 2015

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Jake Arrieta	17.7	10.8	8.3	9.9	1	Jake Arrieta	17.7	10.8	8.3	9.9
2	Mike Trout	23.8	15.7	7.8	9.7	2	Bryce Harper	26.3	17.5	7.8	9.8
3	Bryce Harper	26.3	17.5	7.8	9.8	3	Mike Trout	23.8	15.7	7.8	9.7
4	Matt Carpenter	22.7	14.8	7.3	9.0	4	Matt Carpenter	22.7	14.8	7.3	9.0
5	Josh Donaldson	24.2	17.0	6.9	8.8	5	Josh Donaldson	24.2	17.0	6.9	8.8
6	Anthony Rizzo	22.2	13.9	6.8	8.5	6	Anthony Rizzo	22.2	13.9	6.8	8.5
7	Zack Greinke	15.2	9.6	6.7	8.2	7	Zack Greinke	15.2	9.6	6.7	8.2
8	Andrew McCutchen	22.3	15.2	6.4	8.2	8	Andrew McCutchen	22.3	15.2	6.4	8.2
9	Kris Bryant	23.0	16.0	6.2	8.1	9	Kris Bryant	23.0	16.0	6.2	8.1
10	Yoenis Cespedes	23.0	16.8	5.9	7.8	10	Yoenis Cespedes	23.0	16.8	5.9	7.8

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Jake Arrieta	17.7	10.8	8.4	10.1	1	Jake Arrieta	17.7	10.8	8.4	10.1
2	Bryce Harper	26.4	17.3	8.0	10.0	2	Bryce Harper	26.4	17.3	8.0	10.0
3	Mike Trout	23.1	16.4	6.2	8.1	3	Mike Trout	23.1	16.4	6.2	8.1
4	Clayton Kershaw	15.6	10.6	6.2	7.7	4	Josh Donaldson	23.6	17.5	5.8	7.7
5	Josh Donaldson	23.6	17.5	5.8	7.7	5	Clayton Kershaw	15.6	10.6	6.2	7.7
6	Dallas Keuchel	16.2	11.1	5.5	7.3	6	Dallas Keuchel	16.2	11.1	5.5	7.3
7	Paul Goldschmidt	20.9	14.0	5.4	7.0	7	Paul Goldschmidt	20.9	14.0	5.4	7.0
8	Zack Greinke	14.3	10.5	4.9	6.4	8	Zack Greinke	14.3	10.5	4.9	6.4
9	Yoenis Cespedes	22.3	17.5	4.5	6.3	9	Yoenis Cespedes	22.3	17.5	4.5	6.3
10	Jacob deGrom	13.3	10.2	4.2	5.6	10	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	20.4	15.6	4.1	5.9

I take a look at some of the most interesting players of 2015 at the end of this article.

2015 Postseason

The 2015 postseason was a wonderful celebration of new and exciting teams. Entering the playoffs, only 2 of the 10 2015 playoff teams had won a World Series in the Wild Card era (i.e., since 1995) and these two teams were two of the first three teams eliminated in 2015.

The NLCS featured a classic matchup of great young hitters vs. great young pitchers. The ALCS featured a classic matchup of power vs. speed. Pitching and speed won, and the World Series saw a wonderful performance that gave Kansas City its first championship in 30 years. The top players of the 2015 postseason are shown in the tables below.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	pWORL
	2015 Postseason: Total

Alex Gordon	KCA	2.6	1.7	1.1
Marco Estrada	TOR	1.5	0.6	1.1
Wade Davis	KCA	1.3	0.4	1.1
Jacob deGrom	NYN	2.1	1.5	1.0
Eric Hosmer	KCA	2.4	1.5	0.9
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	1.3	0.6	0.9
Mike Moustakas	KCA	2.2	1.4	0.9
Alcides Escobar	KCA	2.2	1.6	0.9
Curtis Granderson	NYN	2.5	1.7	0.8
Jorge Soler	CHN	1.3	0.6	0.8

Top postseason players by round were as follows.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2015 World Series

Mike Moustakas	KCA	1.0	0.4	0.6
Eric Hosmer	KCA	1.0	0.5	0.5
Alex Gordon	KCA	1.0	0.5	0.5
Ben Zobrist	KCA	0.8	0.4	0.4
Johnny Cueto	CIN	0.5	0.2	0.3

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2015 Postseason: League Championship Series

Lucas Duda	NYN	1.0	0.2	0.7
Daniel Murphy	NYN	0.9	0.3	0.7
Yoenis Cespedes	DET	0.8	0.3	0.5
David Wright	NYN	0.9	0.4	0.5
Alcides Escobar	KCA	1.0	0.5	0.5

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2015 Postseason: Division Series

Jorge Soler	CHN	1.0	0.2	0.8
Jacob deGrom	NYN	1.3	0.6	0.8
Josh Donaldson	TOR	1.0	0.4	0.6
Justin Turner	LAN	1.0	0.4	0.5
Salvador Perez	KCA	0.8	0.3	0.5

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2015 Postseason: Wild Card Round

Kyle Schwarber	CHN	0.6	0.0	0.5
Jake Arrieta	CHN	0.8	0.3	0.5
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	0.6	0.2	0.4

Just for fun, the next table compares the 2015 World Champion Royals with the only other Kansas City Royals team to win the World Series: the 1985 Royals. The 1985 Royals had bigger stars - Bret Saberhagen, George Brett - but the 2015 Royals had a deeper list of contributors. Both teams, of course, were excellent.

1985 vs. 2015 Kansas City Royals: Players sorted by pWORL

	1985 Royals					2015 Royals
Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
Bret Saberhagen	15.8	8.5	7.5	9.1	Lorenzo Cain	21.4	16.8	4.3	6.1
George Brett	22.2	15.4	6.8	8.6	Eric Hosmer	18.9	14.1	3.8	5.3
Dan Quisenberry	10.5	7.0	3.3	5.1	Wade Davis	5.5	2.1	3.3	4.1
Charlie Leibrandt	14.0	11.1	3.0	4.6	Edison Volquez	13.1	11.0	2.4	4.0
Hal McRae	9.6	6.9	2.6	3.7	Kendry Morales	15.3	12.5	2.1	4.0
Danny Jackson	13.0	11.0	2.1	3.7	Alex Gordon	12.7	10.1	2.5	3.6
Steve Balboni	16.6	14.5	0.8	2.3	Mike Moustakas	18.7	16.5	1.8	3.5
Mark Gubicza	10.3	9.7	0.7	2.0	Salvador Perez	13.0	12.0	1.8	3.0
Frank White	18.6	18.8	-0.0	1.7	Ryan Madson	4.5	2.1	2.2	2.9
Willie Wilson	18.0	18.0	-0.4	1.3	Greg Holland	5.2	3.1	2.0	2.9
Jim Sundberg	8.4	8.4	0.4	1.2	Yordano Ventura	10.6	9.7	1.2	2.5
Lonnie Smith	14.7	14.3	-0.3	1.1	Kelvin Herrera	5.5	4.0	1.4	2.4
Buddy Biancalana	5.3	5.3	0.4	0.9	Alcides Escobar	17.6	17.7	0.7	2.4
Bud Black	12.6	13.6	-0.8	0.8	Omar Infante	12.2	11.9	0.6	1.7
Darryl Motley	12.4	12.4	-0.4	0.8	Chris R. Young	6.9	6.2	0.8	1.7
Jorge Orta	6.5	6.7	-0.2	0.7	Jarrod Dyson	7.0	6.0	0.9	1.5
Steve Farr	2.4	2.2	0.2	0.6	Ben Zobrist	7.5	6.9	0.6	1.3
Omar Moreno	2.2	1.9	0.3	0.5	Jason Vargas	3.2	2.7	0.6	1.0
Pat Sheridan	6.3	6.3	-0.2	0.4	Kris Medlen	3.3	2.8	0.6	1.0
Mark Huismann	0.5	0.2	0.3	0.4	Luke Hochevar	2.1	1.6	0.4	0.8
Joe Beckwith	3.4	3.9	-0.5	0.2	Joe Blanton	2.2	1.9	0.4	0.7
Onix Concepcion	10.0	11.7	-0.9	0.1	Danny Duffy	8.8	9.5	-0.6	0.6
Mike LaCoss	1.8	2.0	-0.3	0.1	Franklin Morales	2.3	2.3	-0.1	0.4
Jim Scranton	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	Jason Frasor	0.9	0.8	0.1	0.3
Dennis Leonard	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	Jonny Gomes	1.0	0.7	0.2	0.3
Bob Hegman	0.0	0.0	-0.0	-0.0	Cheslor Cuthbert	1.1	1.0	0.1	0.2
Tony Ferreira	0.2	0.3	-0.1	-0.0	Paulo Orlando	6.9	7.3	-0.5	0.1
Jamie Quirk	1.3	1.6	-0.2	-0.1	Brandon Finnegan	0.6	0.7	-0.1	0.1
Dane Iorg	3.8	4.3	-0.5	-0.1	Drew Butera	1.5	1.6	-0.1	0.1
John Wathan	3.1	3.7	-0.4	-0.1	Louis Coleman	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
Mike C. Jones	1.6	2.3	-0.7	-0.3	Terrance Gore	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Larry Gura	0.2	0.6	-0.4	-0.3	Aaron Brooks	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Dave Leeper	1.0	1.6	-0.6	-0.5	Adalberto Mondesi	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Lynn Jones	4.2	5.1	-1.0	-0.6	Scott Alexander	0.0	0.0	-0.0	-0.0
Greg Pryor	2.3	3.5	-1.1	-0.8	Michael Mariot	0.0	0.0	-0.0	-0.0
					Orlando Calixte	0.0	0.1	-0.0	-0.0
					Joba Chamberlain	0.1	0.1	-0.1	-0.0
					Christian Colon	2.9	3.4	-0.4	-0.1
					Yohan Pino	0.6	0.9	-0.2	-0.1
					Alexis Rios	10.8	11.5	-1.2	-0.1
					Eric Kratz	0.0	0.2	-0.1	-0.1
					Francisco Pena	0.0	0.3	-0.2	-0.2
					Dusty Coleman	0.0	0.4	-0.3	-0.3
					Jeremy Guthrie	8.6	10.6	-1.8	-0.5
					Miguel Almonte	0.1	0.8	-0.7	-0.6
					Johnny Cueto	4.0	5.4	-1.3	-0.7

Best of 2015 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 2015 in wins over positional average (WOPA) by factor were as follows.


Batting
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Bryce Harper	17.9	10.2	7.4	1	Bryce Harper	17.9	10.3	7.3
2	Paul Goldschmidt	15.9	10.2	5.4	2	Anthony Rizzo	18.2	10.7	7.2
3	Joey Votto	15.2	9.8	5.1	3	Josh Donaldson	18.3	11.7	6.5
4	Mike Trout	15.7	10.5	5.1	4	Mike Trout	16.3	9.9	6.3
5	Josh Donaldson	17.4	12.6	4.7	5	Matt Carpenter	16.3	9.9	6.1
6	Chris Davis	16.5	11.8	4.6	6	Kris Bryant	17.2	10.9	6.1
7	Edwin Encarnacion	15.5	11.1	4.3	7	Edwin Encarnacion	16.2	10.4	5.7
8	Anthony Rizzo	16.7	12.2	4.2	8	Andrew McCutchen	15.4	9.6	5.5
9	Nelson R. Cruz	14.5	10.4	4.0	9	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	15.4	10.1	5.2
10	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	14.7	10.8	3.8	10	Chris Davis	16.6	11.6	4.9

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Baserunning
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Billy Hamilton	2.2	0.7	1.4	1	Billy Hamilton	2.3	0.6	1.6
2	Erick Aybar	2.0	1.3	0.7	2	Adam C. Eaton	2.1	1.2	0.9
3	Adam C. Eaton	2.0	1.4	0.6	3	A.J. Pollock	1.7	0.9	0.8
4	Ben Revere	1.8	1.2	0.6	4	Alcides Escobar	1.4	0.7	0.7
5	A.J. Pollock	1.6	1.0	0.5	5	George Springer	1.4	0.7	0.7
6	Jarrod Dyson	0.8	0.2	0.5	6	Lorenzo Cain	1.8	1.1	0.7
7	Josh Donaldson	1.2	0.7	0.5	7	Erick Aybar	2.0	1.3	0.6
8	Paul Goldschmidt	1.5	1.0	0.4	8	Paul Goldschmidt	1.6	0.9	0.6
9	Matt M. Duffy	1.2	0.7	0.4	9	Jarrod Dyson	0.8	0.2	0.6
10	Will Venable	0.9	0.5	0.4	10	Freddy Galvis	1.1	0.6	0.6

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Pitching
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLoss	Net pWins
1	Jake Arrieta	15.5	9.2	6.3	1	Jake Arrieta	16.2	8.5	7.6
2	Clayton Kershaw	14.0	9.3	4.7	2	Zack Greinke	14.1	7.9	6.1
3	Dallas Keuchel	14.9	11.0	3.9	3	Clayton Kershaw	14.4	8.9	5.5
4	Zack Greinke	12.6	9.4	3.2	4	David Price	14.0	8.7	5.3
5	Chris Archer	13.4	10.5	2.9	5	Mark Melancon	7.1	2.6	4.5
6	Jacob deGrom	11.4	8.6	2.8	6	Zach Britton	6.2	1.9	4.3
7	Carlos Carrasco	11.2	8.4	2.8	7	Dellin Betances	8.6	4.6	4.1
8	Zach Britton	5.4	2.7	2.7	8	Gerrit Cole	13.1	9.3	3.8
9	Jaime Garcia	8.9	6.2	2.7	9	Dallas Keuchel	14.8	11.1	3.7
10	Max Scherzer	13.6	11.1	2.4	10	Andrew Miller	6.3	2.6	3.7

Fielding by Position


Fielding, P
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Jason Hammel	0.6	0.1	0.4	1	Dallas Keuchel	0.8	0.4	0.5
2	Julio Teheran	0.6	0.2	0.4	2	Jason Hammel	0.6	0.1	0.4
3	Dallas Keuchel	0.8	0.4	0.4	3	Jake Arrieta	0.8	0.4	0.4
4	Drew Hutchison	0.4	0.1	0.3	4	Julio Teheran	0.6	0.2	0.4
5	Hector Santiago	0.4	0.1	0.3	5	Hector Santiago	0.4	0.0	0.3


Fielding, C
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Wilson Ramos	1.4	1.0	0.5	1	Wilson Ramos	1.5	0.9	0.6
2	Caleb Joseph	1.2	0.8	0.4	2	Caleb Joseph	1.3	0.8	0.5
3	Rene Rivera	1.2	0.9	0.2	3	Yadier Molina	1.8	1.3	0.5
4	Jesus Sucre	0.7	0.5	0.2	4	Carlos E. Perez	1.3	0.9	0.4
5	James McCann	1.1	0.9	0.2	5	James McCann	1.2	0.8	0.4


Fielding, 1B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Adrian Gonzalez	3.1	2.1	0.9	1	Adrian Gonzalez	2.9	2.3	0.7
2	Mike Napoli	2.0	1.4	0.6	2	Anthony Rizzo	2.6	2.1	0.5
3	Miguel Cabrera	2.2	1.8	0.4	3	Paul Goldschmidt	3.3	2.9	0.4
4	Ben Paulsen	1.2	0.9	0.3	4	Brandon Belt	2.1	1.8	0.4
5	Freddie Freeman	1.9	1.6	0.3	5	Joe Mauer	2.8	2.4	0.4


Fielding, 2B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Neil Walker	6.1	5.3	0.9	1	Kolten Wong	6.4	5.3	1.2
2	Jedd Gyorko	2.9	2.3	0.6	2	Addison Russell	3.7	2.6	1.1
3	Jose Altuve	5.6	5.0	0.6	3	Neil Walker	6.2	5.2	1.1
4	Joe Panik	3.6	3.1	0.5	4	Omar Infante	4.5	3.5	0.9
5	Dustin Pedroia	3.6	3.2	0.4	5	Rougned Odor	4.7	3.8	0.9


Fielding, 3B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Adrian Beltre	4.8	3.8	1.1	1	Matt Carpenter	4.8	3.3	1.4
2	Juan Uribe	3.0	2.4	0.7	2	Jake Lamb	3.7	2.5	1.2
3	Jake Lamb	3.4	2.8	0.7	3	Juan Uribe	3.1	2.3	0.8
4	Trevor Plouffe	4.8	4.2	0.6	4	Jung Ho Kang	2.1	1.4	0.7
5	Evan Longoria	4.0	3.5	0.5	5	Matt M. Duffy	4.4	3.7	0.7


Fielding, SS
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Elvis Andrus	7.3	6.2	1.1	1	Andrelton Simmons	6.1	4.8	1.3
2	Andrelton Simmons	6.0	5.0	1.0	2	Jhonny Peralta	6.3	5.0	1.2
3	Brandon Crawford	6.4	5.6	0.8	3	Nick Ahmed	4.9	4.0	0.9
4	Nick Ahmed	4.9	4.0	0.8	4	Troy Tulowitzki	4.8	4.0	0.9
5	Alcides Escobar	5.9	5.4	0.6	5	Jordy Mercer	4.8	4.0	0.9


Fielding, LF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Yoenis Cespedes	4.8	3.8	1.0	1	Yoenis Cespedes	5.2	3.4	1.8
2	Eddie Rosario	3.9	3.1	0.9	2	Scott Van Slyke	1.9	0.8	1.1
3	Scott Van Slyke	1.7	0.9	0.8	3	Eddie Rosario	4.0	3.0	1.0
4	Sam Fuld	1.7	0.9	0.8	4	Alex Gordon	4.0	3.1	0.9
5	Marlon Byrd	3.2	2.6	0.6	5	Sam Fuld	1.7	0.9	0.8


Fielding, CF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Leonys Martin	5.0	3.3	1.7	1	Mike Trout	6.5	5.0	1.5
2	Kevin Kiermaier	6.6	5.1	1.5	2	Kevin Kiermaier	6.5	5.1	1.4
3	Carlos Gomez	4.9	3.9	1.0	3	A.J. Pollock	5.8	4.5	1.3
4	Billy Hamilton	4.6	3.7	0.9	4	Andrew McCutchen	5.7	4.6	1.1
5	Mike Trout	6.2	5.3	0.9	5	Leonys Martin	4.7	3.7	1.0


Fielding, RF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Lonnie Chisenhall	1.8	1.0	0.8	1	Jason Heyward	7.0	5.2	1.8
2	Colby Rasmus	1.9	1.1	0.8	2	Kole Calhoun	6.8	5.5	1.3
3	Gregory Polanco	6.4	5.8	0.6	3	Gregory Polanco	6.6	5.5	1.1
4	Jay Bruce	6.3	5.7	0.6	4	Yasiel Puig	3.1	2.0	1.0
5	Jason Heyward	6.3	5.8	0.5	5	Bryce Harper	6.7	5.7	1.0

Best by Position

Next, we look at 2015 Major-League leaders by position. The figures shown here only include Player decisions earned while playing this particular position.


Catcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Buster Posey	11.8	9.7	2.5	1	Travis d'Arnaud	8.2	5.1	3.4
2	Stephen Vogt	10.3	8.5	2.4	2	Buster Posey	12.1	9.4	3.1
3	Brian McCann	12.7	11.6	2.0	3	Brian McCann	13.1	11.2	2.8
4	Russ Martin	10.8	9.7	1.8	4	Stephen Vogt	10.3	8.5	2.5
5	Travis d'Arnaud	7.4	5.9	1.7	5	Salvador Perez	12.9	11.7	2.0


First Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Paul Goldschmidt	20.4	13.9	5.2	1	Anthony Rizzo	22.2	13.9	6.8
2	Joey Votto	19.3	14.1	3.8	2	Paul Goldschmidt	20.1	14.1	4.6
3	Anthony Rizzo	20.4	15.7	3.0	3	Eric Hosmer	18.8	13.8	4.0
4	Miguel Cabrera	13.3	9.7	2.9	4	Adrian Gonzalez	18.6	13.6	3.6
5	Chris Davis	13.8	10.5	2.5	5	Miguel Cabrera	13.5	9.4	3.4


Second Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jose Altuve	22.0	20.1	2.5	1	Kolten Wong	20.5	16.5	4.1
2	Ian Kinsler	20.1	18.3	2.2	2	Neil Walker	18.5	15.4	3.1
3	Jason Kipnis	17.4	15.7	2.1	3	Jason Kipnis	17.2	15.8	1.8
4	Joe Panik	13.0	11.1	1.9	4	Daniel Murphy	9.8	8.1	1.7
5	Neil Walker	17.7	16.2	1.5	5	Robinson Cano	19.6	18.5	1.6


Third Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Josh Donaldson	22.4	17.2	4.8	1	Kris Bryant	21.8	14.4	6.7
2	Kris Bryant	20.3	15.9	3.7	2	Matt Carpenter	20.6	13.3	6.7
3	Matt Carpenter	18.8	15.1	3.1	3	Josh Donaldson	23.2	16.4	6.4
4	Adrian Beltre	18.3	15.8	2.2	4	Justin Turner	13.2	9.7	3.1
5	Justin Turner	12.7	10.2	2.1	5	Nolan Arenado	21.8	18.6	2.4


Shortstop
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Brandon Crawford	19.0	17.0	2.4	1	Jhonny Peralta	20.0	17.6	2.8
2	Carlos Correa	14.0	12.4	2.1	2	Troy Tulowitzki	16.1	14.1	2.4
3	Francisco Lindor	13.4	11.8	2.1	3	Brandon Crawford	19.1	17.0	2.4
4	Troy Tulowitzki	15.6	14.6	1.4	4	Jung Ho Kang	7.2	5.1	2.2
5	Eduardo Escobar	8.6	7.6	1.4	5	Francisco Lindor	13.4	11.9	2.1


Left Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Yoenis Cespedes	16.0	13.4	2.5	1	Yoenis Cespedes	16.6	13.4	3.6
2	David Peralta	16.0	13.3	2.3	2	Justin Upton	21.1	18.0	3.1
3	Justin Upton	20.5	18.0	2.0	3	Starling Marte	19.2	16.6	2.8
4	Colby Rasmus	6.9	5.3	1.5	4	Alex Gordon	12.6	10.5	2.6
5	Eddie Rosario	10.6	9.1	1.4	5	Brett Gardner	14.7	13.4	2.3


Center Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Mike Trout	22.6	16.4	5.9	1	Mike Trout	23.6	15.4	8.0
2	Andrew McCutchen	20.7	16.3	3.7	2	Andrew McCutchen	22.0	15.0	6.4
3	A.J. Pollock	21.0	17.2	3.1	3	Lorenzo Cain	20.9	16.3	4.3
4	Lorenzo Cain	19.7	17.6	1.8	4	A.J. Pollock	21.3	17.0	3.6
5	Bryce Harper	2.5	1.0	1.4	5	Yoenis Cespedes	6.1	3.5	2.4


Right Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Bryce Harper	23.5	16.5	6.1	1	Bryce Harper	23.8	16.2	6.6
2	Nelson R. Cruz	12.4	9.0	3.1	2	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	17.9	12.5	4.9
3	J.D. Martinez	21.2	17.6	2.9	3	Jason Heyward	20.4	15.7	3.7
4	Jose 'Joey Bats' Bautista	16.9	13.5	2.9	4	Shin-Soo Choo	19.8	15.8	3.4
5	Giancarlo Stanton	11.3	8.5	2.2	5	Nelson R. Cruz	12.3	9.1	2.8


Starting Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jake Arrieta	16.1	9.8	6.7	1	Jake Arrieta	17.0	8.9	8.4
2	Clayton Kershaw	14.4	9.6	5.1	2	Zack Greinke	14.4	8.1	6.6
3	Dallas Keuchel	15.7	11.5	4.5	3	Clayton Kershaw	14.8	9.2	5.9
4	Zack Greinke	12.9	9.5	3.7	4	David Price	14.3	9.0	5.7
5	Jacob deGrom	11.9	8.8	3.3	5	Dallas Keuchel	15.7	11.5	4.5
6	Carlos Carrasco	11.3	8.6	3.0	6	Gerrit Cole	13.5	9.4	4.3
7	Jaime Garcia	9.2	6.5	3.0	7	Jacob deGrom	12.2	8.5	4.0
8	Chris Archer	13.7	11.1	2.9	8	Max Scherzer	14.4	10.7	4.0
9	Max Scherzer	13.8	11.3	2.8	9	Carlos E. Martinez	11.6	7.8	4.0
10	David Price	12.9	10.4	2.8	10	Sonny Gray	12.8	9.4	3.6


Relief Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Zach Britton	5.6	2.8	2.6	1	Mark Melancon	7.3	2.6	4.4
2	Mark Melancon	6.0	3.8	2.0	2	Zach Britton	6.5	2.0	4.3
3	Dellin Betances	7.8	5.5	2.0	3	Dellin Betances	8.7	4.6	3.9
4	Carson Smith	6.6	4.4	2.0	4	Shawn Tolleson	7.5	3.7	3.5
5	Andrew Miller	5.6	3.5	1.9	5	Andrew Miller	6.4	2.7	3.5
6	Wade Davis	4.8	2.8	1.9	6	Hector Rondon	7.6	3.9	3.4
7	Hector Rondon	6.7	4.7	1.8	7	Trevor Rosenthal	7.4	3.9	3.3
8	Aroldis Chapman	6.0	4.3	1.5	8	Wade Davis	5.5	2.1	3.3
9	A.J. Ramos	6.7	5.0	1.5	9	Craig Kimbrel	6.1	2.7	3.3
10	Ken Giles	4.9	3.3	1.5	10	Tony Watson	6.5	3.2	3.1


Designated Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Edwin Encarnacion	10.1	6.8	2.9	1	Edwin Encarnacion	10.8	6.1	4.4
2	Alex Rodriguez	13.5	11.1	1.8	2	Alex Rodriguez	13.9	10.8	2.4
3	David Ortiz	13.1	10.9	1.6	3	Kendry Morales	14.3	11.4	2.3

Finally, here are the best at three oft-forgotten positions that can nevertheless matter: pitcher offense, pinch hitting, and pinch running.


Pitcher Offense
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Madison Bumgarner	1.4	1.4	0.8	1	Mike Leake	1.3	1.2	0.8
2	Tyson Ross	1.1	1.4	0.5	2	Madison Bumgarner	1.3	1.5	0.6
3	Zack Greinke	0.9	1.4	0.3	3	Jeremy Hellickson	1.0	0.9	0.6


Pinch Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jed Lowrie	1.1	0.1	1.0	1	Jed Lowrie	1.1	0.1	1.0
2	Brett Wallace	1.3	0.7	0.7	2	Chris Denorfia	1.1	0.5	0.6
3	Gerardo Parra	1.0	0.5	0.5	3	Gerardo Parra	1.0	0.5	0.6


Pinch Runner
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Enrique Hernandez	0.3	0.0	0.3	1	Eduardo Nunez	0.3	0.0	0.2
2	Eduardo Nunez	0.3	0.0	0.2	2	Enrique Hernandez	0.3	0.0	0.2
3	Shane Robinson	0.3	0.1	0.2	3	Shane Robinson	0.3	0.1	0.2

Noteworthy Players of 2015

Mike Trout vs. Bryce Harper

For a long time, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were, I think, closely linked in the mind of many baseball fans. They debuted in back-to-back seasons, both at the age of 19. Trout's age-19 season was short and unsuccessful so he was technically still a rookie the next season when he and Harper each won Rookie of the Year awards. Harper was much more widely heralded coming into MLB: he made the cover of Sports Illustrated as a 16-year-old high schooler and was the first overall pick in the MLB draft two years before his debut.

And then, Mike Trout became the player that Bryce Harper was supposed to be. Harper hasn't been bad - he's been so good that he signed a record-setting 13-year, $330 million free agent deal in the 2018-19 offseason. Which Mike Trout upstaged by signing a 12-year, $428 million contract less than three weeks later. Bryce Harper was a can't miss prospect - and, to be fair, he hasn't missed. But Mike Trout is the best player of his generation. Recently, folks have stopped comparing Trout to Harper; now they compare Trout to Mickey Mantle.

Except for 2015. The 2015 season was the one season (so far) where Bryce Harper put it all together, won an MVP award, and legitimately rivaled Mike Trout as the best position player in baseball. The results are summarized in the table below.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Bryce Harper	153	26.3	17.5	7.8	9.8	26.4	17.3	8.0	10.0
Mike Trout	159	23.8	15.7	7.8	9.7	23.1	16.4	6.2	8.1

National League Cy Young Race: Jake Arrieta vs. Zack Greinke vs. Clayton Kershaw

The 2015 NL Cy Young race was fascinating to me - partly because, living on the North Side of Chicago, I had a rooting interest. But also, it was, I thought, a very interesting 3-way statistical battle. According to Baseball-Reference WAR, the top pitcher in the National League in 2015 was Zack Greinke (with 9.7). According to Fangraphs WAR, the top pitcher in the National League was Clayton Kershaw (with 8.6). Baseball-Reference had Kershaw third in the NL in WAR (7.5); Fangraphs had Greinke 4th in the NL in WAR with 5.3.

The difference between Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs is that Baseball-Reference Pitcher WAR is keyed off of runs allowed, while Fangraphs Pitcher WAR is keyed off of FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching - a function only of strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed). Are pitchers completely responsible for runs allowed? No, fielding matters. But pitchers are responsible for more than just walks and strikeouts and home runs. In my opinion, the truth is somewhere in between.

And who was in between Kershaw and Greinke? As it turns out, Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs agreed about who was second in pitcher WAR in 2015: Jake Arrieta (8.6 at BB-Ref; 7.0 at Fangraphs).

Taking a simple average of BB-Ref and Fangraphs' WAR shows Kershaw at 8.05, Arrieta at 7.80, and Zack Greinke at 7.50. Vary the weights you're inclined to give to BB-Ref and Fangraphs, and you can find a set of weights to put any of the three of them in first.

Player won-lost records use empirical weights (i.e., they are derived within my work, so that I, of course, believe they are correct). Strikeouts are more valuable (to a pitcher) than balls in play. But pitchers have some control over whether balls in play become outs or hits. And when you put it all together systematically, as I have done with Baseball Player won-lost records, it turns out, the most valuable pitcher (and player) in the National League in 2015 was the guy I was rooting for, Jake Arrieta.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Jake Arrieta	33	17.7	10.8	8.3	9.9	17.7	10.8	8.4	10.1
Zack Greinke	32	15.2	9.6	6.7	8.2	14.3	10.5	4.9	6.4
Clayton Kershaw	34	15.4	10.8	5.8	7.4	15.6	10.6	6.2	7.7

Top 2015 Player Debuts

It is still too early to know what kind of careers they will have, but the Rookie Class of 2015 made an impressive debut. The next table shows the 2015 Player won-lost records of all players who debuted in 2015 and earned at least 2.0 pWins over replacement level (pWORL).

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
Kris Bryant	151	23.0	16.0	6.2	8.1	21.4	17.6	3.2	5.0
Jung Ho Kang	126	15.4	11.5	3.8	5.1	14.4	12.5	1.7	3.0
Miguel Sano	80	8.6	5.9	2.5	3.4	8.3	6.3	1.7	2.7
Delino DeShields Jr.	121	15.2	13.1	2.0	3.3	13.9	14.4	-0.6	0.7
Francisco Lindor	99	13.4	11.9	2.0	3.2	13.5	11.7	2.3	3.5
Addison Russell	142	15.9	14.7	1.4	2.8	15.1	15.4	-0.1	1.3
Noah Syndergaard	24	10.4	9.5	1.5	2.7	10.4	9.5	1.6	2.8
Kyle Schwarber	69	8.1	6.1	1.9	2.6	7.6	6.7	1.0	1.6
Carlos Correa	99	13.6	12.9	1.3	2.6	14.0	12.4	2.3	3.5
Stephen Piscotty	63	9.2	7.5	1.4	2.2	8.8	7.9	0.7	1.5
Eddie Rosario	122	14.7	13.7	0.8	2.1	14.8	13.5	1.2	2.5
Michael Conforto	56	5.8	4.0	1.6	2.1	5.5	4.3	1.2	1.6
Roberto Osuna	68	5.4	4.2	1.0	2.0	5.4	4.2	1.0	2.1
Carlos Rodon	26	9.0	8.3	0.9	2.0	8.5	8.8	-0.1	1.1

Final Farewells of 2015: Tim Hudson and Barry Zito

Among the players whose final season was 2015 were two former teammates for the Oakland Athletics of Moneyball fame: Tim Hudson and Barry Zito.

The next table compares the career records of Hudson and Zito, as measured by Player won-lost records. The final row of the table shows their career totals across the five seasons when they were teammates.

Season	Games	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA	pWORL
	Tim Hudson					Barry Zito
1999	24	9.0	6.2	2.9	3.9
2000	33	13.6	10.9	2.8	4.4	14	4.9	4.3	0.6	1.2
2001	36	14.6	11.1	3.8	5.6	35	13.8	10.3	3.8	5.4
2002	34	14.0	10.6	3.7	5.4	35	16.1	10.6	5.8	7.7
2003	34	15.4	9.5	6.2	7.9	35	13.5	14.0	-0.3	1.6
2004	27	11.2	8.6	2.7	4.0	34	12.2	13.0	-0.6	1.1
2005	29	13.1	12.5	1.6	3.1	35	13.4	14.4	-0.8	1.0
2006	35	13.0	13.9	0.3	1.9	34	14.3	13.4	1.2	3.0
2007	34	13.7	10.9	4.0	5.5	34	12.2	15.3	-2.1	-0.3
2008	23	9.0	7.4	2.2	3.3	32	12.3	15.3	-2.0	-0.2
2009	7	2.3	2.3	0.1	0.4	34	12.0	13.1	-0.1	1.4
2010	35	15.4	12.9	3.5	5.1	34	11.3	12.8	-0.8	0.6
2011	33	13.9	12.1	2.8	4.2	13	3.1	5.7	-2.4	-1.9
2012	29	12.4	9.6	3.8	5.0	32	11.5	12.5	-0.2	1.3
2013	21	8.6	7.8	1.5	2.5	30	7.6	11.4	-3.1	-1.9
2014	31	11.7	12.1	0.6	2.0
2015	24	7.0	8.9	-1.1	-0.2	3	0.3	0.4	-0.1	-0.1
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	489	197.8	167.5	41.3	63.8	434	158.5	166.6	-0.9	19.9
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
RECORDS AS TEAMMATES	164	68.7	50.7	19.2	27.2	153	60.5	52.2	9.4	17.0

Article last updated: August 29, 2019

Wins over positional average and replacement level are calculated using data only for the 2015 season. Positional averages for starting pitching and relief pitching are calculated using single-year data for all starting pitchers and all relief pitchers.

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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