2018 Season

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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2018 Season

The 2018 Season as seen through the Prism of Player Won-Lost Records

With my latest update to Player won-lost records, I have introduced some fairly significant changes. In acknowledgement of this, I am going to update my season write-ups to reflect these changes. First up, the most recent season for which I have calculated Player won-lost records, the 2018 season.

This article takes a look at the 2018 season as measured by Player won-lost records.

The Best of 2018

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

The top 10 players in pWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		pWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Mookie Betts	22.4	14.2	7.7	9.5	1	Mookie Betts	22.4	14.2	7.7	9.5
2	Max Scherzer	16.6	10.7	7.1	8.8	2	Max Scherzer	16.6	10.7	7.1	8.8
3	Alex Bregman	24.3	17.4	6.5	8.5	3	Alex Bregman	24.3	17.4	6.5	8.5
4	Mike Trout	19.9	13.6	6.4	8.0	4	J.D. Martinez	19.4	12.6	6.3	8.2
5	J.D. Martinez	19.4	12.6	6.3	8.2	5	Mike Trout	19.9	13.6	6.4	8.0
6	Andrew Benintendi	22.6	16.1	6.1	7.9	6	Andrew Benintendi	22.6	16.1	6.1	7.9
7	Aaron Nola	15.7	10.9	6.0	7.7	7	Aaron Nola	15.7	10.9	6.0	7.7
8	Justin Verlander	15.3	9.8	5.8	7.5	8	Javier Baez	22.2	16.2	5.7	7.6
9	Xander Bogaerts	20.0	14.4	5.8	7.4	9	Christian Yelich	24.6	18.1	5.5	7.5
10	Javier Baez	22.2	16.2	5.7	7.6	10	Justin Verlander	15.3	9.8	5.8	7.5

The top 10 players in eWins above Positional Average and Replacement Level were as follows.


		eWins over Positional Average Top 10 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 10 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Mike Trout	20.9	12.6	8.2	9.8	1	Mike Trout	20.9	12.6	8.2	9.8
2	Jacob deGrom	15.4	9.7	7.1	8.7	2	Mookie Betts	22.1	14.5	7.0	8.8
3	Mookie Betts	22.1	14.5	7.0	8.8	3	Jacob deGrom	15.4	9.7	7.1	8.7
4	Max Scherzer	16.1	11.2	6.2	7.9	4	Max Scherzer	16.1	11.2	6.2	7.9
5	Chris Sale	10.5	5.6	5.1	6.2	5	Christian Yelich	24.2	18.6	4.8	6.8
6	Justin Verlander	14.8	10.2	4.9	6.6	6	Justin Verlander	14.8	10.2	4.9	6.6
7	Christian Yelich	24.2	18.6	4.8	6.8	7	J.D. Martinez	18.5	13.5	4.4	6.4
8	Trevor Bauer	11.8	7.2	4.8	6.1	8	Chris Sale	10.5	5.6	5.1	6.2
9	Patrick Corbin	13.7	10.2	4.6	6.1	9	Corey Kluber	14.6	10.4	4.5	6.2
10	Blake Snell	13.4	9.0	4.6	6.1	10	Alex Bregman	23.1	18.6	4.2	6.2

I take a look at some of the most interesting players of 2018 at the end of this article.

2018 Postseason

The 2018 postseason saw the Boston Red Sox complete what was, in terms of wins, the most successful in franchise history (the 1912 Red Sox had a slighly higher regular-season winning percentage) with a resounding World Series victory in five games over the Los Angeles Dodgers, who won their second consecutive National League pennant.

The top performers of the 2018 postseason, as measured by Player won-lost records, are shown in the next several tables.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	pWORL
	2018 Postseason: Total

Steven Pearce	BOS	1.9	0.6	1.4
Rafael Devers	BOS	1.7	0.7	1.0
Jackie Bradley	BOS	1.6	0.8	0.9
J.D. Martinez	BOS	1.6	0.9	0.9
Aaron Judge	NYA	1.3	0.5	0.9
Justin Turner	LAN	2.5	1.7	0.9
Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	1.3	0.7	0.8
Max Muncy	LAN	2.0	1.3	0.8
David Price	BOS	2.0	1.6	0.8
Corey Knebel	MIL	0.8	0.2	0.7

Top postseason players by round were as follows.

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2018 World Series

Steven Pearce	BOS	1.2	0.2	1.0
Joe Kelly	BOS	0.5	0.1	0.4
Rafael Devers	BOS	0.6	0.2	0.3
J.D. Martinez	BOS	0.7	0.4	0.3
David Price	BOS	1.1	0.8	0.3

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2018 Postseason: League Championship Series

Jackie Bradley	BOS	1.1	0.3	0.8
Rafael Devers	BOS	0.8	0.3	0.5
David Price	BOS	0.9	0.4	0.5
Corey Knebel	MIL	0.6	0.2	0.4
Kenley Jansen	LAN	0.5	0.1	0.4

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2018 Postseason: Division Series

Justin Turner	LAN	0.9	0.2	0.6
Marwin Gonzalez	HOU	0.9	0.2	0.6
Alex Bregman	HOU	0.8	0.1	0.6
Mike Moustakas	KCA	0.8	0.2	0.6
Max Muncy	LAN	0.9	0.4	0.6

Player	Team	pWins	pLosses	Net Wins
	2018 Postseason: Wild Card Round

Aaron Judge	NYA	0.5	0.0	0.5
Luis Severino	NYA	0.5	0.3	0.2
Kyle Freeland	COL	0.3	0.1	0.2

Best of 2018 by Factor and Position

Next, let's look at the top players in various aspects of the game.

Best by Factor: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, Fielding

There are four basic factors for which players earn Player won-lost records: Batting, Baserunning, Pitching, and Fielding. The top players in 2018 in wins over positional average (WOPA) by factor were as follows.


Batting
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Mike Trout	14.7	8.3	6.3	1	J.D. Martinez	16.3	9.4	6.9
2	Mookie Betts	14.8	9.2	5.6	2	Alex Bregman	18.1	11.7	6.3
3	Christian Yelich	17.9	12.3	5.1	3	Mookie Betts	15.1	8.9	6.2
4	J.D. Martinez	15.3	10.4	4.9	4	Khris Davis	16.7	10.8	5.9
5	Alex Bregman	17.0	12.8	4.2	5	Christian Yelich	18.1	12.0	5.6
6	Jose 'Lapara' Ramirez	15.5	11.4	4.1	6	Xander Bogaerts	14.4	9.4	4.9
7	Paul Goldschmidt	15.2	11.0	3.8	7	Mike Trout	13.9	9.2	4.7
8	Khris Davis	15.6	11.9	3.6	8	Andrew Benintendi	14.7	10.1	4.5
9	Bryce Harper	15.3	11.5	3.3	9	Paul Goldschmidt	15.5	10.7	4.5
10	Max Muncy	10.8	7.2	3.3	10	Jose 'Lapara' Ramirez	15.6	11.3	4.2

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Baserunning
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA
1	Javier Baez	1.9	1.0	0.9	1	Javier Baez	2.1	0.8	1.2
2	Brett Gardner	1.6	0.9	0.7	2	Brett Gardner	1.7	0.8	0.9
3	Billy Hamilton	1.4	0.8	0.6	3	Lorenzo Cain	2.1	1.1	0.9
4	Lorenzo Cain	1.9	1.3	0.5	4	Mike Trout	1.4	0.8	0.6
5	Trea Turner	2.0	1.4	0.5	5	Harrison Bader	1.2	0.6	0.6
6	Mookie Betts	1.5	1.0	0.5	6	Cody Bellinger	1.3	0.7	0.6
7	Greg Allen	1.1	0.6	0.5	7	Ozzie Albies	1.4	0.8	0.6
8	Michael A. Taylor	1.1	0.6	0.4	8	Jackie Bradley	1.1	0.5	0.5
9	Jose Altuve	1.3	0.9	0.4	9	Jake Bauers	0.9	0.4	0.5
10	Mallex Smith	1.5	1.1	0.4	10	Brian W. Anderson	1.6	1.1	0.5

Positional Average excludes pitcher offense


Pitching
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLoss	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLoss	Net pWins
1	Jacob deGrom	13.6	8.6	5.1	1	Max Scherzer	14.9	8.9	6.0
2	Chris Sale	9.9	5.9	4.0	2	Edwin O. Diaz	9.0	3.2	5.8
3	Max Scherzer	13.9	10.0	4.0	3	Blake Treinen	9.0	3.3	5.8
4	Justin Verlander	14.1	10.4	3.7	4	Aaron Nola	14.5	9.0	5.6
5	Trevor Bauer	11.2	7.4	3.7	5	Justin Verlander	15.0	9.5	5.5
6	Blake Snell	12.7	9.2	3.5	6	Gerrit Cole	12.7	7.9	4.8
7	Corey Kluber	14.0	10.5	3.4	7	Blake Snell	13.2	8.7	4.5
8	Aaron Nola	13.4	10.1	3.3	8	Kyle Freeland	13.8	9.3	4.5
9	Carlos Carrasco	12.4	9.3	3.1	9	Trevor Bauer	11.5	7.0	4.5
10	Edwin O. Diaz	7.7	4.6	3.1	10	Miles Mikolas	11.7	7.3	4.4

Fielding by Position


Fielding, P
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Marcus Stroman	0.5	0.2	0.3	1	Tyler Anderson	0.6	0.2	0.4
2	Brent Suter	0.3	0.1	0.3	2	Wade Miley	0.4	0.1	0.3
3	Jacob deGrom	0.3	0.1	0.2	3	Jacob deGrom	0.3	0.1	0.2
4	Patrick Corbin	0.3	0.1	0.2	4	Zack Greinke	0.3	0.1	0.2
5	Jason Vargas	0.3	0.0	0.2	5	Patrick Corbin	0.3	0.1	0.2


Fielding, C
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Salvador Perez	1.5	1.1	0.4	1	Salvador Perez	1.6	1.0	0.5
2	Mike Zunino	1.2	0.8	0.4	2	Mike Zunino	1.3	0.8	0.5
3	Manny Pina	1.2	0.9	0.3	3	Manny Pina	1.3	0.8	0.5
4	Kevin Plawecki	0.9	0.7	0.3	4	Willson Contreras	1.7	1.3	0.4
5	Martin Maldonado	1.3	1.0	0.3	5	J.T. Realmuto	1.5	1.1	0.4


Fielding, 1B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Matt Olson	2.5	1.8	0.7	1	Matt Olson	2.8	1.6	1.2
2	Carlos Santana	2.8	2.2	0.6	2	Anthony Rizzo	2.6	1.9	0.7
3	Anthony Rizzo	2.4	2.1	0.4	3	Yonder Alonso	2.5	1.9	0.5
4	Trey Mancini	0.9	0.6	0.4	4	Yulieski Gurriel	1.9	1.3	0.5
5	Freddie Freeman	2.8	2.5	0.3	5	Brandon Belt	2.0	1.5	0.5


Fielding, 2B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Kolten Wong	4.0	3.2	0.9	1	Jed Lowrie	4.0	3.1	0.9
2	DJ LeMahieu	4.7	3.9	0.8	2	DJ LeMahieu	4.7	3.8	0.9
3	Jed Lowrie	3.9	3.2	0.6	3	Kolten Wong	4.0	3.1	0.9
4	Wilmer Difo	2.9	2.5	0.5	4	Rougned Odor	4.2	3.5	0.7
5	Rougned Odor	4.1	3.6	0.5	5	Adam Frazier	1.8	1.2	0.7


Fielding, 3B
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Matt Chapman	6.2	4.4	1.8	1	Matt Chapman	6.0	4.6	1.3
2	Nolan Arenado	5.2	4.4	0.7	2	David Bote	2.2	1.1	1.2
3	Kyle Seager	5.6	5.0	0.6	3	Matt Carpenter	2.2	1.5	0.7
4	Travis Shaw	3.2	2.6	0.6	4	Jose 'Lapara' Ramirez	3.5	2.8	0.7
5	Anthony Rendon	3.3	2.7	0.6	5	Travis Shaw	3.2	2.5	0.7


Fielding, SS
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Nick Ahmed	5.7	4.8	0.9	1	Marcus Semien	6.7	5.1	1.6
2	Andrelton Simmons	5.3	4.6	0.7	2	Dansby Swanson	4.9	3.7	1.2
3	Jose Iglesias	4.4	3.7	0.7	3	Nick Ahmed	5.8	4.7	1.1
4	Carlos Correa	3.5	2.9	0.7	4	Addison Russell	3.9	2.8	1.1
5	Jean Segura	5.1	4.6	0.5	5	Carlos Correa	3.7	2.7	1.0


Fielding, LF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Adam Duvall	3.7	2.6	1.1	1	Andrew Benintendi	6.1	4.4	1.7
2	Andrew Benintendi	5.8	4.8	1.0	2	Corey Dickerson	5.3	3.7	1.5
3	Eddie Rosario	5.2	4.3	0.9	3	Jordan Luplow	2.0	0.5	1.5
4	Corey Dickerson	4.9	4.1	0.8	4	Kyle Schwarber	4.6	3.2	1.4
5	Alex Gordon	5.4	4.7	0.7	5	Adam Duvall	3.8	2.6	1.2


Fielding, CF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Starling Marte	5.7	4.7	1.0	1	Billy Hamilton	6.3	5.1	1.2
2	Albert Almora	3.8	2.9	0.9	2	Albert Almora	3.9	2.8	1.1
3	Mike Trout	4.5	3.8	0.7	3	Mike Trout	4.7	3.7	1.0
4	Michael A. Taylor	3.3	2.6	0.7	4	Mike Gerber	1.1	0.1	1.0
5	Ender Inciarte	5.9	5.3	0.6	5	Leonys Martin	4.3	3.3	1.0


Fielding, RF
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins		Player	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins
1	Aaron Judge	4.3	3.3	0.9	1	Aaron Judge	4.8	2.8	2.0
2	Max Kepler	4.1	3.3	0.8	2	Mookie Betts	5.4	3.5	1.9
3	Kole Calhoun	4.5	3.8	0.7	3	Nick Markakis	6.8	5.0	1.9
4	Mookie Betts	4.8	4.1	0.7	4	Jason Heyward	4.5	3.5	1.0
5	Nick Markakis	6.2	5.6	0.5	5	Carlos Gonzalez	4.4	3.6	0.8

Best by Position

Next, we look at 2018 Major-League leaders by position. The figures shown here only include Player decisions earned while playing this particular position.


Catcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	J.T. Realmuto	13.1	10.6	3.1	1	J.T. Realmuto	13.3	10.5	3.4
2	Yasmani Grandal	11.4	9.8	2.2	2	Robinson Chirinos	10.2	8.6	2.3
3	Robinson Chirinos	9.7	9.0	1.5	3	Yadier Molina	11.7	10.7	1.6
4	Wilson Ramos	9.9	9.3	1.4	4	Gary Sanchez	8.1	7.2	1.6
5	Francisco Cervelli	9.1	8.3	1.2	5	Buster Posey	8.9	7.9	1.4


First Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Paul Goldschmidt	18.0	13.8	3.2	1	Paul Goldschmidt	18.2	13.6	3.6
2	Freddie Freeman	18.6	14.7	2.8	2	Jesus Aguilar	15.8	11.6	3.3
3	Jesus Aguilar	15.2	12.2	2.0	3	Anthony Rizzo	18.3	14.3	2.8
4	Matt Olson	15.7	13.4	1.7	4	Freddie Freeman	18.5	14.8	2.6
5	Max Muncy	7.5	5.6	1.5	5	Matt Olson	15.8	13.2	2.0


Second Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jose Altuve	15.9	13.6	2.7	1	Jed Lowrie	17.1	13.4	4.0
2	Jed Lowrie	16.3	14.2	2.5	2	Gleyber Torres	14.1	10.8	3.6
3	Adam Frazier	6.7	4.7	2.0	3	Robinson Cano	8.8	6.4	2.6
4	Robinson Cano	8.2	7.0	1.4	4	Jose Altuve	15.8	13.7	2.5
5	Ketel Marte	13.5	12.3	1.2	5	Javier Baez	11.2	8.8	2.4


Third Base
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Matt Chapman	20.3	16.0	3.9	1	Alex Bregman	20.8	14.6	5.9
2	Jose 'Lapara' Ramirez	18.1	14.1	3.6	2	Matt Chapman	20.7	15.5	4.8
3	Alex Bregman	19.6	15.7	3.5	3	Jose 'Lapara' Ramirez	18.4	13.7	4.3
4	Anthony Rendon	18.6	14.6	3.2	4	Travis Shaw	14.0	10.0	3.5
5	Nolan Arenado	19.7	16.0	2.8	5	Anthony Rendon	18.6	14.6	3.1


Shortstop
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Trevor Story	21.5	18.3	2.9	1	Xander Bogaerts	20.0	14.4	5.7
2	Francisco Lindor	21.3	18.6	2.8	2	Francisco Lindor	21.9	18.1	3.9
3	Manny Machado	19.0	16.5	2.5	3	Trevor Story	21.9	17.8	3.8
4	Xander Bogaerts	18.3	16.1	2.3	4	Paul DeJong	15.5	12.0	3.3
5	Didi Gregorius	17.2	15.2	2.1	5	Dansby Swanson	16.2	13.3	2.7


Left Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Juan Soto	15.5	12.5	2.3	1	Andrew Benintendi	18.9	15.3	4.7
2	Eddie Rosario	17.1	14.6	2.0	2	Michael Brantley	19.2	16.5	3.1
3	Justin Upton	19.4	17.0	1.9	3	J.D. Martinez	5.8	3.7	2.6
4	Rhys Hoskins	17.6	15.1	1.7	4	Juan Soto	15.6	12.5	2.4
5	Andrew Benintendi	17.3	15.3	1.5	5	Michael Conforto	11.3	8.9	2.4


Center Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Mike Trout	19.2	11.9	7.4	1	Mike Trout	18.6	12.4	6.3
2	Aaron Hicks	16.3	14.4	2.0	2	Aaron Hicks	17.1	13.7	3.4
3	Lorenzo Cain	18.5	16.4	1.7	3	Lorenzo Cain	19.1	15.7	3.1
4	Starling Marte	18.7	16.8	1.6	4	Harrison Bader	9.4	6.5	2.8
5	Bryce Harper	8.1	6.7	1.2	5	Starling Marte	19.3	16.3	2.7


Right Field
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Mookie Betts	19.3	13.0	5.9	1	Mookie Betts	20.0	12.3	7.4
2	Aaron Judge	13.2	10.1	2.8	2	Aaron Judge	14.1	9.2	4.7
3	Mitch Haniger	18.3	15.3	2.6	3	Mitch Haniger	19.3	14.4	4.5
4	Christian Yelich	10.3	7.9	1.9	4	Stephen Piscotty	19.4	16.4	2.5
5	George Springer	7.9	6.3	1.3	5	Nick Markakis	21.5	18.1	2.3


Starting Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Jacob deGrom	13.9	8.6	5.5	1	Max Scherzer	15.0	9.0	6.2
2	Chris Sale	10.1	6.0	4.2	2	Aaron Nola	14.8	9.1	5.8
3	Max Scherzer	14.0	10.1	4.1	3	Justin Verlander	15.2	9.6	5.8
4	Justin Verlander	14.3	10.6	3.9	4	Gerrit Cole	12.9	8.0	5.1
5	Trevor Bauer	10.9	7.3	3.8	5	Blake Snell	13.5	8.8	4.9
6	Corey Kluber	14.2	10.6	3.7	6	Chris Sale	10.3	5.8	4.7
7	Blake Snell	12.9	9.4	3.7	7	Kyle Freeland	14.0	9.5	4.7
8	Aaron Nola	13.6	10.3	3.5	8	Corey Kluber	14.6	10.2	4.6
9	Patrick Corbin	12.5	9.2	3.5	9	Jacob deGrom	13.4	9.2	4.4
10	Carlos Carrasco	12.1	9.1	3.2	10	Trevor Bauer	11.2	7.0	4.3


Relief Pitcher
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Edwin O. Diaz	7.8	4.6	3.0	1	Edwin O. Diaz	9.1	3.3	5.7
2	Blake Treinen	7.8	5.0	2.7	2	Blake Treinen	9.3	3.5	5.7
3	Jeremy Jeffress	6.3	3.9	2.3	3	Craig Kimbrel	7.5	3.1	4.3
4	Jose Leclerc	4.8	2.6	2.1	4	Josh Hader	8.0	3.6	4.2
5	Josh Hader	6.9	4.7	2.1	5	Jeremy Jeffress	7.2	3.0	4.1
6	Jose Alvarado	5.4	3.4	2.0	6	Felipe Vazquez	7.8	4.4	3.3
7	Sean Doolittle	3.7	1.7	1.9	7	Aroldis Chapman	5.5	2.6	2.8
8	Tony Watson	5.2	3.3	1.8	8	Alex Colome	7.2	4.6	2.4
9	Craig Stammen	5.8	4.0	1.7	9	Adam Ottavino	7.2	4.7	2.4
10	Kirby Yates	5.4	3.6	1.7	10	Cody Allen	7.2	4.7	2.4


Designated Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Khris Davis	15.0	11.7	2.6	1	Khris Davis	16.1	10.6	4.9
2	J.D. Martinez	9.7	7.3	2.0	2	Nelson R. Cruz	13.9	10.2	3.1
3	Nelson R. Cruz	13.2	10.9	1.6	3	J.D. Martinez	9.9	7.1	2.5

Finally, here are the best at three oft-forgotten positions that can nevertheless matter: pitcher offense, pinch hitting, and pinch running.


Pitcher Offense
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Brent Suter	1.1	0.7	0.8	1	Brent Suter	1.1	0.6	0.9
2	Max Scherzer	1.3	1.8	0.7	2	Max Scherzer	1.5	1.6	0.8
3	Zack Greinke	1.0	1.4	0.5	3	Miles Mikolas	1.0	1.0	0.6


Pinch Hitter
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Hunter Renfroe	1.5	0.4	1.2	1	Hunter Renfroe	1.6	0.4	1.2
2	Brock Holt	1.2	0.5	0.8	2	David Bote	1.4	0.2	1.2
3	Brandon Nimmo	1.1	0.4	0.7	3	Brock Holt	1.3	0.4	1.0


Pinch Runner
		Context-Neutral					Context-Dependent
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA
1	Derek Fisher	0.3	0.1	0.2	1	Lane Adams	0.2	0.0	0.2
2	Lane Adams	0.2	0.0	0.2	2	Derek Fisher	0.3	0.1	0.2
3	Rafael Bautista	0.2	0.0	0.1	3	Rafael Bautista	0.2	0.0	0.2

Noteworthy Players of 2018

Both the American League and National League MVP winners finished one vote short of unanimous. Looking at the first two tables presented in this article, Player won-lost records thinks the choice of MVP was perhaps a bit less obvious in both cases.

AL MVP Race: Mookie Betts versus Mike Trout

For the fourth time in his career, Mike Trout finished in second place in the AL MVP voting in 2018. This was probably the first time of those four, however, in which that was generally regarded as the correct vote. I think most people generally agreed that Mookie Betts probably deserved the award over Trout.

In 2018, Trout batted .312/.460/.628 and led the American League in on-base percentage, walks (122), and OPS. He hit 39 home runs, scored 101 runs, and stole 24 bases (out of 26 attempts). He also played his usual fine defensive center field - in fact, Player won-lost records see him as the best defensive CF in the American League in 2018.

In contrast, Mookie Betts batted .346/.438/.640 and led the American League in batting average, slugging percentage, and runs scored (129). He added 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases (in 36 attempts). Betts won a Gold Glove for his fielding in right field. Player won-lost records do not necessarily agree that Betts was the best defensive RF in the American League in 2018 but they do agree that he was an excellent fielder.

Player won-lost records are calculated two ways: in and out of context. Here is how Betts and Trout compare as measured by pWins and eWins, respectively.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL

Mike Trout	140	19.9	13.6	6.4	8.0	20.9	12.6	8.2	9.8
Mookie Betts	136	22.4	14.2	7.7	9.5	22.1	14.5	7.0	8.8

Betts looks better in context - in part because his team won 108 games while Trout's team only won 80 games (which isn't really Trout's fault; imagine how few they'd win without him). But that wasn't the only reason for the difference. Baseball-Reference provides batting splits by "leverage". They calculate that Mike Trout had an OPS of .839 in high-leverage situations vs. 1.211 in low-leverage situations. In contrast, Mookie Betts had an OPS of 1.155 in high-leverage situations (and 1.096 in low-leverage situations).

Is it Trout's "fault" that he hit more poorly in high-leverage situations than Betts did? Probably not. But it really happened and that really affected the win totals of the Angels and Red Sox. I think that eWins matter and I wouldn't fault anybody for using eWins as their sole measure in MVP voting. Nor would I fault anybody for using pWins alone. Personally, I think I'd be inclined to do something closer to taking a simple average of the two. And Betts beat Trout by a little bit more in either pWOPA or pWORL than Trout beat Betts in eWOPA and eWORL.

Personally, I think that either Betts or Trout would have been a fine choice for American League MVP in 2018. But if I had a vote, I think I would have gone with the consensus, and voted for Mookie Betts.

NL MVP Race: Christian Yelich versus Javier Baez

Like with Betts and Trout, the top two finishers in the NL MVP race rank differently in or out of context. In this case, however, MVP voters went with the player who was stronger when measured by eWins than by pWins.

	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL

Christian Yelich	147	24.6	18.1	5.5	7.5	24.2	18.6	4.8	6.8
Javier Baez	160	22.2	16.2	5.7	7.6	21.1	17.3	3.6	5.4

I have to admit that this surprised me. At the end of August, Baez's Chicago Cubs had a record of 79-55 and a 3.5-game lead in the NL Central. In September, the Cubs went a respectable 16-12 and Javier Baez batted .269/.319/.472.

Meanwhile, from September 1st to the end of the regular season, Christian Yelich batted .370/.508/.804 as the Brewers went 20-7 to end their regular season, including a 3-1 win at Wrigley Field on October 1st in Game 163.

It seems kind of obvious that Christian Yelich led the Milwaukee Brewers on their late-season surge to the NL Central title (and best record in the National League). Player won-lost records, however, treat all wins equally. The players on the winning team earn a combined total of two pWins and one pLoss, whether the game took place in April, September, or in Game 7 of the World Series.

Is this reasonable? Well, speaking as a Chicago Cubs fan who was sitting down the left-field line at Wrigley Field for that Game 163, the Cubs missed making the NLDS for a fourth straight season by one win. The obvious missed opportunities were in Game 163 and then in the wild-card game the next night. But you know what? If the Cubs could have figured out a way to score a second run at some point in the first 16 innings of their game in Miami on March 30th, way back in Game 2 of the season, if everything else had played out the same from there on out, the Cubs wouldn't have needed to play Game 163.

Now, that having been said, a win is a win. But a win against your divisional arch-rival - well, that's not only a win for you but also a loss for them. In 2018, Javier Baez batted .290/.326/.554, an OPS of .881. Against the Brewers, though, Baez only batted .239/.329/.343, an OPS of .672. Ouch!

Meanwhile, Christian Yelich batted .326/.402/.598 overall. Against the Cubs, he batted .213/.279/.246. Wait, what!? Honestly, I wasn't expecting that. In Game 163, though, Yelich went 3-for-4 and drove in the Brewers' first run while Baez went 1-for-4 with 2 strikeouts. Is it fair to give Yelich a little extra credit relative to Baez for his Game 163 performance? Sure, absolutely.

The True NL MVP According to Player Won-Lost Records: Max Scherzer

Looking at the first table in this article, the most valuable player in the National League was neither Yelich nor Baez. Ranked by pWins over either positional average (pWOPA) or replacement level (pWORL), the most valuable player in the National League in 2018 was Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer.

Max Scherzer finished the 2018 season with a traditional pitcher won-last record of 18-7. He led the National League in pitcher wins, innings pitched (220.2), strikeouts (300), strikeouts per 9 IP (12.2), K-to-W ratio (5.88), hits per 9 IP (6.1), and WHIP (0.911). It's pretty easy to see how that translates into such a valuable season.

Just for fun, the next table compares Max Scherzer's career through 2018, as measured by Player won-lost records, with the career of first-ballot Hall-of-Famer Sandy Koufax. I think it's a really interesting comparison.

Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Max Scherzer					Sandy Koufax
19						12	2.5	2.4	0.2	0.5
20						16	3.4	4.4	-0.9	-0.4
21						34	5.2	5.8	-0.3	0.4
22						40	10.2	12.0	-1.4	-0.0
23	17	2.0	3.6	-1.3	-1.0	35	9.6	9.4	0.5	1.6
24	31	11.3	11.1	1.0	2.3	37	10.5	12.5	-1.5	-0.1
25	31	11.7	13.0	-1.1	0.4	42	17.4	15.8	2.3	4.3
26	33	12.2	12.4	0.1	1.6	28	11.8	9.2	3.3	4.6
27	32	11.9	8.9	3.4	4.7	40	22.5	13.3	10.2	12.4
28	32	14.1	7.9	6.6	8.0	29	15.7	11.2	5.3	7.1
29	33	15.2	10.1	5.4	7.0	43	25.0	14.5	11.7	14.1
30	34	15.6	12.1	4.5	6.2	41	22.8	16.1	7.8	10.1
31	34	16.7	13.2	4.8	6.7
32	31	15.0	10.0	6.5	8.1
33	35	16.6	10.7	7.1	8.8
34	28	12.3	8.6	4.6	6.0
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	371	154.6	121.6	41.5	58.8	397	156.7	126.6	37.0	54.8

Fun with Numbers: Jacob deGrom and Lucas Giolito

Jacob deGrom won the National League Cy Young award. Based on the numbers shown earlier in this article, I might have voted for Max Scherzer, but deGrom had a very strong case - leading all major-league pitchers (and all National League players) in expected wins (eWins) over both positional average (eWOPA) and replacement level (eWORL).

Shortly after deGrom won the Cy Young Award, Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) tweeted a fascinating statistical coincidence.

Among qualified pitchers, Jacob deGrom had the lowest earned run average in the major leagues in 2018, 1.70 in 217 innings.

Among qualified pitchers, Lucas Giolito of the Chicago White Sox had the highest earned run average in the major leagues in 2018, 6.13 in 173.1 innings pitched.

Both deGrom and Giolito started 32 games for their respective teams.

Both pitchers earned 10 traditional pitcher wins (deGrom had 9 losses; Giolito had 13 losses).

In Jacob deGrom's 32 starts, the New York Mets had a won-lost record of 14-18.

In Lucas Giolito's 32 starts, the Chicago White Sox had a won-lost record of ... 14-18.

Obviously, Jacob deGrom had a vastly better season than Lucas Giolito: Giolito's ERA was more than 3.5 times larger than deGrom's. But, at the end of the day, the Mets won 14 of 32 games started by deGrom and the White Sox won 14 of 32 games started by Giolito. Given that pWins are tied to team wins, what do pWins say about the relative performances of deGrom and Giolito? Are they too similar? Well, here's what pWins have to say about their performances. There are a total of 3 pWins per team game, of which approximately one-third are earned by pitchers (for pitching). Hence, pWins are on approximately the same scale as traditional pitcher wins and losses.

	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Jacob deGrom	14.4	10.8	6.3	4.7
Lucas Giolito	9.9	13.9	-2.1	-3.8

And here is a breakdown of the player performances of the Mets and White Sox in deGrom's and Giolito's 32 starts.

New York Mets	46.0	50.0	0.479

	pWins	pLoss	pWin Pct.
Jacob deGrom	14.4	10.8	0.570
Rest of Team	31.6	39.2	0.447

Chicago White Sox	46.0	50.0	0.479
Lucas Giolito	9.9	13.9	0.417
Rest of Team	36.1	36.1	0.500

One note that I would make up front is that this is their overall records, including batting. Because deGrom pitched for a National League team, he had 74 plate appearances, in which he batted .164/.211/.179 (which is actually slightly above average for a pitcher but, of course, well below average overall). Giolito, however, pitched for an American League team, so he only had 6 plate appearances all season - in which he went 0-for-6 with 4 strikeouts. So, deGrom's pWin percentage is pulled down by this relative to Giolito - but not deGrom's pWOPA or pWORL, which recognize that deGrom, while a bad hitter for a hitter was a pretty decent hitter for a pitcher.

Another comment I would make is that one reason why deGrom's ERA was so much better than Giolito's is because deGrom basically had no bad starts - you really can't have any truly bad starts and finish with an ERA of 1.70. In contrast, Giolito had four starts in which he pitched 2.0 or fewer innings and allowed 9, 7, 5, and 7 runs (one of the runs was unearned). In those four starts, all of which the White Sox (and Giolito) lost, Giolito had an ERA of 40.50. In his other 28 starts, Giolito had an ERA of 4.89 - which, to be clear, still isn't very good. But calculating Player won-lost records at the game level, very bad isn't all that much worse than pretty bad - all losses end up equal at the end of the day.

Now, those caveats out of the way, the pWins seem to me to be telling a reasonable story. In deGrom's 32 starts, the New York Mets earned a combined 46 pWins (18 in their 18 losses plus 28 in their 14 wins), of which deGrom earned 31.3 percent. In Giolito's 32 starts, the White Sox earned the exact same number of pWins, 46, but Giolito earned only 21.5 percent of them. The White Sox had the same record as the Mets in the 32 games being compared because Giolito's White Sox teammates played much better in his starts (0.500 pWin percentage) than deGrom's teammates played in his starts (0.447 pWin percentage).

Comparing against average (pWOPA) or replacement level (pWORL), the difference in quality between the two pitchers becomes even starker.

That said, is Jacob deGrom's record being adversely affected by the fact that he pitched for a lousy team which gave him crappy support? Yes, he is. Here's a comparison between deGrom and Giolito based on expected wins, eWins.

	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Jacob deGrom	15.4	9.7	8.7	7.1
Lucas Giolito	10.7	13.1	-0.5	-2.2

Basically, Giolito earned his 10-13 record while deGrom deserved a much better record.

Farewell to a Great One: Adrian Beltre Retires

Finally, 2018 was the final season for at least one player who will almost certainly be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible, Adrian Beltre (Beltre will appear on the 2024 Hall-of-Fame ballot which will be released in late 2023).

The next table presents Adrian Beltre's career, as measured by Player won-lost records.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1998	LAN	19	77	6.4	6.8	0.1	-0.6
1999	LAN	20	152	15.4	16.3	0.3	-1.2
2000	LAN	21	138	17.7	14.7	4.5	2.9
2001	LAN	22	126	13.0	14.0	0.1	-1.3
2002	LAN	23	159	17.7	15.3	3.9	2.2
2003	LAN	24	158	19.9	17.9	3.8	1.9
2004	LAN	25	156	24.7	16.3	9.6	7.6
2005	SEA	26	156	18.1	18.7	0.9	-0.8
2006	SEA	27	156	19.6	17.9	2.8	1.1
2007	SEA	28	149	18.8	16.9	3.2	1.7
2008	SEA	29	143	16.3	17.7	-0.0	-1.6
2009	SEA	30	111	12.6	12.3	1.4	0.3
2010	BOS	31	154	18.6	17.2	3.1	1.4
2011	TEX	32	124	17.5	13.6	5.8	4.2
2012	TEX	33	156	20.6	14.2	8.0	6.2
2013	TEX	34	161	19.6	17.9	3.5	1.6
2014	TEX	35	148	18.4	16.8	3.2	1.6
2015	TEX	36	143	18.0	16.2	3.1	1.5
2016	TEX	37	153	21.9	15.2	7.9	6.1
2017	TEX	38	94	12.5	9.4	4.2	3.0
2018	TEX	39	119	11.3	13.2	-0.9	-2.3
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,933	358.5	318.3	68.4	35.6
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			28	3.4	2.6	1.1	0.8
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,961	362.0	321.0	69.5	36.4

To put that in some context, here are the top 10 players, ranked by pWins over replacement level (pWORL), since 1947 among all players for whom at least 25% of their pWins were earned as a third baseman.

	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

		Top 10 Third Basemen since 1947 (ranked by career pWORL)
1	Alex Rodriguez	373.8	298.7	114.1	80.8
2	Eddie Mathews	320.7	240.9	99.0	70.1
3	Mike Schmidt	338.5	257.6	98.8	70.6
4	Chipper Jones	336.2	257.6	98.3	69.6
5	Harmon Killebrew	301.1	235.0	73.9	46.8
6	George Brett	327.7	275.9	73.8	43.8
7	Miguel Cabrera	300.3	243.1	69.9	43.6
8	Paul Molitor	316.7	273.4	69.5	37.6
9	Adrian Beltre	358.5	318.3	68.4	35.6
10	Brooks Robinson	352.3	310.6	65.0	32.2

Article last updated: August 20, 2019

Wins over positional average and replacement level are calculated using data only for the 2018 season. Positional averages for starting pitching and relief pitching are calculated using single-year data for all starting pitchers and all relief pitchers.

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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