Gary Sheffield

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Gary Sheffield

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Gary Sheffield

Five facts about Gary Sheffield:

Gary Sheffield played in the 1980 Little League World Series representing his hometown of Tampa, Florida and set a Little League World Series record with four doubles. Sheffield’s team lost in the finals, 4-3, to a team from Taiwan.

Gary Sheffield batted .300 or better ten times in his career. He had an on-base percentage of .400 or better ten times. He hit 30 or more home runs eight times. He scored 100 or more runs seven times. He had 100 or more RBI eight times. Gary Sheffield hit each of these milestones in the same season four times, in 1996, 1999, 2000, and 2003.

Sheffield played for the 1997 World Championship Florida Marlins. In the 1997 postseason, he batted .320/.521/.540 with 13 runs scored in 16 games.

Sheffield hit his first major-league home run on September 9, 1988, at the age of 19. Sheffield hit his final major-league home run on June 29, 2009, at the age of 40. This made Gary Sheffield the third player to hit a home run as a teenager and in his 40s, following Ty Cobb and Rusty Staub. Alex Rodriguez became the fourth such player when he homered on his fortieth birthday on July 27, 2015.

Sheffield is the nephew of 1985 Cy Young winner Dwight Gooden.

The first two tables below present Gary Sheffield's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1988	MIL	19	24	2.7	3.0	0.1	-0.2
1989	MIL	20	95	10.8	12.6	-0.1	-1.2
1990	MIL	21	125	16.2	14.5	3.2	1.8
1991	MIL	22	50	4.5	6.4	-1.3	-1.9
1992	SDN	23	146	25.6	18.0	9.3	7.2
+– 1993		24	139	16.4	16.9	0.7	-1.0
	FLO		72	8.5	8.7	0.4	-0.5
	SDN		67	7.9	8.2	0.3	-0.5
1994	FLO	25	87	12.6	11.1	2.0	0.8
1995	FLO	26	63	8.8	8.6	0.6	-0.3
1996	FLO	27	161	24.7	19.7	5.7	3.5
1997	FLO	28	135	18.8	15.5	3.8	2.1
+– 1998		29	130	16.2	14.9	1.6	0.1
	FLO		40	4.9	5.4	-0.4	-0.9
	LAN		90	11.3	9.5	2.0	1.0
1999	LAN	30	152	18.7	16.5	2.8	1.1
2000	LAN	31	141	21.5	15.9	6.3	4.5
2001	LAN	32	143	23.0	18.5	5.4	3.3
2002	ATL	33	135	20.7	14.4	7.0	5.3
2003	ATL	34	155	24.2	16.6	8.3	6.3
2004	NYA	35	154	23.0	16.6	7.7	5.7
2005	NYA	36	154	20.4	15.2	6.3	4.5
2006	NYA	37	39	4.0	4.7	-0.5	-0.9
2007	DET	38	133	13.8	10.3	4.4	2.8
2008	DET	39	114	8.1	9.6	-0.9	-2.0
2009	NYN	40	100	8.5	8.7	0.2	-0.6
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,575	343.2	288.0	72.7	41.0
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			44	5.5	5.5	0.3	-0.3
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,619	348.7	293.5	73.0	40.7

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1988	MIL	19	24	2.7	3.0	0.1	-0.2
1989	MIL	20	95	11.1	12.3	0.5	-0.6
1990	MIL	21	125	16.1	14.6	3.0	1.5
1991	MIL	22	50	4.7	6.1	-0.9	-1.5
1992	SDN	23	146	24.3	19.3	6.5	4.4
+– 1993		24	139	16.9	16.4	1.7	0.0
	FLO		72	8.7	8.5	0.8	-0.0
	SDN		67	8.1	7.9	0.8	0.0
1994	FLO	25	87	13.0	10.7	2.8	1.7
1995	FLO	26	63	10.0	7.3	2.9	2.0
1996	FLO	27	161	25.5	18.8	7.8	5.6
1997	FLO	28	135	18.9	15.4	3.9	2.2
+– 1998		29	130	16.9	14.1	3.2	1.7
	FLO		40	5.2	5.0	0.4	-0.1
	LAN		90	11.7	9.1	2.8	1.7
1999	LAN	30	152	19.3	15.8	4.1	2.4
2000	LAN	31	141	21.3	16.1	5.8	4.0
2001	LAN	32	143	22.8	18.6	5.1	3.0
2002	ATL	33	135	18.8	16.2	3.2	1.4
2003	ATL	34	155	24.0	16.8	7.7	5.7
2004	NYA	35	154	21.4	18.2	4.7	2.6
2005	NYA	36	154	19.7	15.9	4.8	3.0
2006	NYA	37	39	4.6	4.2	0.6	0.2
2007	DET	38	133	13.4	10.7	3.6	2.1
2008	DET	39	114	8.6	9.1	0.3	-0.9
2009	NYN	40	100	8.8	8.5	0.8	-0.0
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,575	342.8	288.4	72.2	40.5
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			44	5.6	5.4	0.5	-0.1
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,619	348.5	293.7	72.7	40.4

This is Gary Sheffield's sixth year on the Hall-of-Fame ballot. I have written articles about the Hall-of-Fame candidates every year in which Gary Sheffield has been on the BBWAA ballot. Much of these earlier articles are somewhat obsolete due to changes to my Player won-lost records over time. But, for the sake of posterity, these old articles are linked at the end of my general article on Player won-lost records and the Hall of Fame.

Vote Prediction

Gary Sheffield's vote totals in his first five years on the Hall-of-Fame ballot ranged from 47 to 64 votes and from 11.1% to 13.6%. The latter two of these came in the last two years, with Sheffield jumping from 11.1% of the vote to 13.6% (47 to 58 votes) from 2018 to 2019. So, I guess you could argue he has some positive momentum if you really wanted to go looking for it. But more generally, Sheffield's support has been pretty stagnant. On the other hand, Sheffield was named an above-average number of times (9) as a player who voters would have voted for but for the 10-player vote limit.

My sense is that Sheffield has statistics that are obviously good enough for the Hall of Fame - 509 career home runs, over 1,600 career runs scored and RBI, a career batting line of .292/.393/.514. But Sheffield is the sort of player that voters are perhaps eager to find an excuse not to vote for him - and there are plenty of excuses: he at least dabbled in PEDs, he was a bad fielder by most metrics, he was unpleasant.

Clearing out the crowded ballot may open up some room for voters to add Sheffield to their ballots. The question, though, is will they? I would guess that some will, but Sheffield will probably not gain as many votes as many other returning players. As I noted above, Sheffield was named by 9 voters as a player they would have voted for absent the ballot cap. That is the same number of voters as named Helton. I predicted that Helton's vote percentage would increase from 16.5% to 24.0%. I don't expect Sheffield to gain that much, maybe only half as much, which would push Sheffield from, say, 13.6% to 16.8%.

Player Won-Lost Records and Gary Sheffield

Gary Sheffield was a great hitter. He was, however, an indifferent fielder at best, an historically bad fielder by some measures. In general, Gary Sheffield probably would have been at least as valuable - and arguably slightly more valuable - over the course of his career had he simply been a designated hitter the entire time.

In assessing Gary Sheffield's Hall-of-Fame candidacy, then, I think this leads to a somewhat obvious comparison. How does Gary Sheffield compare to Hall-of-Fame designated hitters?

There are three players in the Hall of Fame who played significant portions of their career as designated hitters - significant enough portions that they probably wouldn't be in the Hall of Fame without them: Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, and Paul Molitor.

The next table compares Gary Sheffield to the most recently inducted of these three players (and the one who I think is most strongly thought of as "just" a designated hitter), Edgar Martinez, as measured by Player won-lost records.

Season	Games	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLoss	pWOPA	pWORL
	Gary Sheffield					Edgar Martinez
1987						13	1.0	1.0	-0.0	0.1
1988	24	2.7	3.0	-0.2	0.1	14	0.8	0.8	-0.1	0.0
1989	95	10.8	12.6	-1.2	-0.1	65	4.9	4.2	0.7	1.1
1990	125	16.2	14.5	1.8	3.2	144	16.7	15.7	1.1	2.6
1991	50	4.5	6.4	-1.9	-1.3	150	20.4	16.6	3.7	5.5
1992	146	25.6	18.0	7.2	9.3	135	18.0	15.5	2.3	4.0
1993	139	16.4	16.9	-1.0	0.7	42	3.3	3.5	-0.2	0.2
1994	87	12.6	11.1	0.8	2.0	89	9.2	9.0	0.1	1.1
1995	63	8.8	8.6	-0.3	0.6	145	16.5	9.3	6.6	8.3
1996	161	24.7	19.7	3.5	5.7	139	16.5	10.4	5.5	7.3
1997	135	18.8	15.5	2.1	3.8	155	14.1	11.2	2.2	3.9
1998	130	16.2	14.9	0.1	1.6	154	15.1	11.8	2.6	4.4
1999	152	18.7	16.5	1.1	2.8	142	13.2	9.5	3.1	4.7
2000	141	21.5	15.9	4.5	6.3	153	15.6	11.1	3.8	5.7
2001	143	23.0	18.5	3.3	5.4	132	14.5	8.4	5.6	7.2
2002	135	20.7	14.4	5.3	7.0	97	9.0	6.5	2.2	3.2
2003	155	24.2	16.6	6.3	8.3	145	14.4	12.1	1.7	3.5
2004	154	23.0	16.6	5.7	7.7	141	8.7	12.5	-4.2	-2.8
2005	154	20.4	15.2	4.5	6.3
2006	39	4.0	4.7	-0.9	-0.5
2007	133	13.8	10.3	2.8	4.4
2008	114	8.1	9.6	-2.0	-0.9
2009	100	8.5	8.7	-0.6	0.2
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	2,575	343.2	288.0	41.0	72.7	2,055	211.7	169.2	36.7	60.0

Was Gary Sheffield a good enough hitter to make the Hall of Fame even granting that he added no value outside of his hitting? From a pure statistical standpoint, I think the numbers here suggest that the answer is "Yes".

Article last updated: December 23, 2019

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series

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