Roger Clemens

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Roger Clemens

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Roger Clemens

Five facts about Roger Clemens:

Roger Clemens was born exactly one year after former President Barack Obama, with whom he shares a birthday.

Clemens won seven Cy Young awards spread across three decades and four teams. He won his first Cy Young award in 1986 and his last in 2004. Clemens also won one MVP award - in 1986 - with five other top-10 MVP finishes.

Clemens had 20 or more traditional pitching wins six times, leading the league four times. He led the league in ERA seven times, in shutouts six times, in innings pitched twice, and in strikeouts five times.

Because of the DH rule, Roger Clemens did not have his first regular-season plate appearance until 1996, when he was 33 years old. Clemens was forced to bat in the eighth inning against the Seattle Mariners on May 23, 1996, when Red Sox DH Jose Canseco moved to left field. Clemens singled to center field off Norm Charlton en route to a complete-game 11-4 victory. Clemens’s second regular-season at bat - in an inter-league game against the New York Mets on September 2, 1997 - was a double to right field off Juan Acevedo. He then reached on an error and walked in his other two plate appearances that game. Roger Clemens was not retired as a batter in a regular-season game until June 8, 1998, when he was almost 36 years old.

On April 29, 1986, Clemens tied a major-league record with 20 strikeouts in 9 innings in a complete-game 3-1 victory over the Seattle Mariners. On September 18, 1996, Clemens became the only pitcher in major-league history to pitch a second 20-strikeout game.

The first two tables below present Roger Clemens's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1984	BOS	21	21	7.2	5.8	2.3	1.5
1985	BOS	22	15	5.8	4.6	2.0	1.3
1986	BOS	23	33	17.2	9.8	9.4	7.6
1987	BOS	24	36	18.1	11.8	8.6	6.7
1988	BOS	25	35	17.9	11.8	8.2	6.3
1989	BOS	26	35	14.7	12.7	4.0	2.2
1990	BOS	27	31	16.5	8.7	9.7	8.0
1991	BOS	28	35	16.7	11.2	7.6	5.7
1992	BOS	29	32	15.5	10.2	7.2	5.4
1993	BOS	30	29	12.7	12.6	1.9	0.2
1994	BOS	31	24	10.6	8.0	3.9	2.6
1995	BOS	32	23	8.8	6.7	3.3	2.2
1996	BOS	33	34	13.3	11.0	4.3	2.6
1997	TOR	34	34	18.6	9.7	11.1	9.2
1998	TOR	35	33	15.7	9.4	8.3	6.6
1999	NYA	36	30	13.1	12.4	2.7	1.0
2000	NYA	37	32	13.9	12.0	3.9	2.1
2001	NYA	38	33	13.9	8.9	6.8	5.2
2002	NYA	39	29	11.5	9.6	3.6	2.1
2003	NYA	40	33	13.4	11.0	4.3	2.6
2004	HOU	41	33	14.7	10.7	6.6	5.0
2005	HOU	42	32	14.1	9.8	6.7	5.2
2006	HOU	43	19	7.2	4.9	3.5	2.8
2007	NYA	44	18	5.9	5.5	1.3	0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			709	316.9	228.6	131.3	94.6
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			35	12.4	11.2	3.3	1.7
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			744	329.3	239.8	134.5	96.3

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1984	BOS	21	21	7.1	5.8	2.3	1.4
1985	BOS	22	15	6.0	4.4	2.3	1.6
1986	BOS	23	33	16.3	10.7	7.6	5.8
1987	BOS	24	36	17.9	12.0	8.1	6.2
1988	BOS	25	35	18.3	11.4	9.0	7.1
1989	BOS	26	35	15.3	12.2	5.1	3.3
1990	BOS	27	31	15.9	9.3	8.5	6.8
1991	BOS	28	35	16.7	11.1	7.7	5.8
1992	BOS	29	32	15.5	10.2	7.3	5.6
1993	BOS	30	29	13.8	11.5	4.1	2.5
1994	BOS	31	24	10.8	7.8	4.3	3.0
1995	BOS	32	23	7.9	7.5	1.6	0.5
1996	BOS	33	34	14.1	10.2	5.9	4.2
1997	TOR	34	34	19.0	9.3	11.9	10.0
1998	TOR	35	33	15.0	10.0	7.1	5.3
1999	NYA	36	30	13.2	12.3	2.9	1.1
2000	NYA	37	32	13.7	12.3	3.5	1.7
2001	NYA	38	33	12.3	10.4	3.8	2.2
2002	NYA	39	29	11.0	10.1	2.6	1.1
2003	NYA	40	33	13.0	11.3	3.6	1.9
2004	HOU	41	33	14.2	11.3	5.6	4.0
2005	HOU	42	32	14.7	9.2	7.8	6.3
2006	HOU	43	19	7.1	5.0	3.3	2.6
2007	NYA	44	18	5.9	5.5	1.3	0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			709	314.8	230.7	127.2	90.6
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			35	13.0	10.6	4.5	2.9
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			744	327.8	241.3	131.7	93.5

This is Roger Clemens's eighth year on the Hall-of-Fame ballot. I have been writing articles about Hall-of-Fame candidates since 2013 - Roger Clemens's first year on the ballot. Much of these earlier articles are somewhat obsolete due to changes to my Player won-lost records over time. But, for the sake of posterity, these old articles are linked at the end of my general article on Player won-lost records and the Hall of Fame.

Vote Prediction

In his first year on the ballot, 2013, Roger Clemens received eight more votes than Barry Bonds. In the six years since then, Clemens has received one to four more votes than Bonds each year. To be honest, I don't really understand how you can vote for one but not the other: they're both overwhelmingly qualified if you take their numbers at face value and the argument for not taking their numbers at face value are virtually identical for the two.

That said, I guess I see no reason why past history is likely to change, so I predict that Clemens will receive 2 more votes (0.5% or so) than Bonds, which would put him at 64.5%.

Player Won-Lost Records and Roger Clemens

As I've written elsewhere, Baseball Player won-lost records are on the same approximate scale as traditional pitcher wins. I have calculated Player won-lost records since 1916. Over that time period, thirteen major-league pitchers have at least 300 traditional pitcher wins. Roger Clemens ranks third in career pitcher wins since that time with 354, one fewer than Hall-of-Famer Greg Maddux and nine fewer than Hall-of-Famer Warren Spahn.

In contrast, there are 10 pitchers who have earned at least 300 pWins over this same time period. The 10 pitchers with at least 300 career pWins are shown in the next table (ranked by career pWins).

		300-pWin Pitchers

Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
Nolan Ryan	354.6	329.6	38.1	81.0
Warren Spahn	351.1	294.8	74.3	113.8
Steve Carlton	335.6	305.9	49.2	86.9
Phil Niekro	329.1	322.8	25.2	64.8
Greg Maddux	327.2	271.7	77.9	115.0
Don Sutton	318.6	297.3	38.4	75.6
Roger Clemens	316.9	228.6	94.6	131.3
Gaylord Perry	315.6	290.2	38.2	76.1
Early Wynn	307.1	285.2	38.5	74.5
Tom Seaver	306.9	258.2	65.1	98.6

While pWins (and pLosses) are the basic calculation underlying my Player won-lost records (i.e., they are my player won-lost records), when comparing players, I think it best to measure pWins (or eWins) relative to some standard - average, replacement level, or some such. The next table, then, shows the top 25 pitchers for whom I have calculated Player won-lost records, ranked by pWins over replacement level (pWORL).

		Top 25 Pitchers, ranked by pWORL

	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Roger Clemens	316.9	228.6	94.6	131.3
2	Greg Maddux	327.2	271.7	77.9	115.0
3	Warren Spahn	351.1	294.8	74.3	113.8
4	Lefty Grove	264.3	190.7	84.3	113.0
5	Randy 'Big Unit' Johnson	279.8	221.0	69.8	102.9
6	Tom Seaver	306.9	258.2	65.1	98.6
7	Jim Palmer	241.5	186.1	61.9	88.7
8	Bob Gibson	262.4	218.4	58.7	87.4
9	Steve Carlton	335.6	305.9	49.2	86.9
10	Pedro J. Martinez	192.4	137.8	62.6	84.7
11	Juan Marichal	230.8	188.0	56.7	81.7
12	Nolan Ryan	354.6	329.6	38.1	81.0
13	Mike Mussina	223.1	174.0	52.7	80.1
14	Mariano Rivera	125.9	61.1	61.4	79.0
15	Pete Alexander	214.1	168.1	55.0	78.9
16	Tom Glavine	277.8	249.8	45.8	78.6
17	John Smoltz	238.8	201.8	49.6	78.3
18	Whitey Ford	209.4	164.7	54.9	78.0
19	Fergie Jenkins	285.0	252.3	44.4	77.4
20	Bob Feller	254.8	219.0	47.4	77.3
21	Walter Johnson	198.8	154.1	53.7	76.1
22	Gaylord Perry	315.6	290.2	38.2	76.1
23	Don Sutton	318.6	297.3	38.4	75.6
24	Early Wynn	307.1	285.2	38.5	74.5
25	Robin Roberts	294.3	271.1	39.9	74.4

Article last updated: November 25, 2019

2020 Hall of Fame Ballot Series

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