Barry Bonds

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Barry Bonds

2021 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Barry Bonds

Five facts about Barry Bonds:

Barry Bonds won seven MVP awards spread over fifteen seasons, 1990 to 2004. Over that time period, Bonds also finished second in MVP voting twice, fourth once, and fifth twice.

Bonds won eight Gold Gloves, winning every year from 1990 through 1998, except for 1995.

Bonds holds the major-league career records for home runs (762) and walks (2,558). He is third in major-league history in runs scored (2,227), fourth in OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage, 1.051) and total bases (5,976), fifth in RBI (1,996) and slugging percentage (.607), and sixth in on-base percentage (.444).

Barry Bonds had five seasons in which he had at least 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Only one other player in major-league history has had five 30/30 seasons, Barry Bonds's father, Bobby Bonds.

Bonds was so good, in fact, that he got his first major-league hit 40 days before his major-league debut (sort of). Bonds made his major-league debut on May 30, 1986. A little more than two months later, on August 11, 1986, Bonds hit a game-winning single in the 17th inning of a game which was the continuation of a suspended game that was originally started (and, hence, per MLB rules, officially played) on April 20, 1986. So, Bonds is officially credited with a major-league hit (and RBI) on April 20, 1986, forty days before his official major-league debut on May 30, 1986.

The first two tables below present Barry Bonds's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1986	PIT	21	113	15.7	14.8	1.6	0.2
1987	PIT	22	150	19.0	16.8	2.8	1.1
1988	PIT	23	144	22.0	15.6	7.2	5.4
1989	PIT	24	159	21.1	19.1	2.6	0.7
1990	PIT	25	151	24.9	16.3	9.3	7.4
1991	PIT	26	153	24.7	15.6	10.0	8.1
1992	PIT	27	140	22.3	14.5	8.7	6.9
1993	SFN	28	159	27.5	15.4	13.2	11.1
1994	SFN	29	112	18.7	12.8	6.7	5.2
1995	SFN	30	144	25.0	17.1	9.0	6.9
1996	SFN	31	158	25.6	17.5	9.0	6.9
1997	SFN	32	159	25.4	17.1	9.4	7.3
1998	SFN	33	156	24.7	16.6	9.2	7.1
1999	SFN	34	102	15.8	10.8	5.6	4.3
2000	SFN	35	142	24.0	15.1	9.8	7.9
2001	SFN	36	153	28.3	15.2	14.5	12.3
2002	SFN	37	143	24.5	12.6	13.0	11.1
2003	SFN	38	130	21.2	11.4	10.6	9.0
2004	SFN	39	147	23.7	11.4	13.3	11.5
2005	SFN	40	14	1.8	1.3	0.6	0.4
2006	SFN	41	130	15.4	11.7	4.3	3.0
2007	SFN	42	126	15.3	12.0	4.0	2.7
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,985	466.8	310.6	174.4	136.5
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			48	6.4	6.5	0.1	-0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			3,033	473.2	317.1	174.5	136.0

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1986	PIT	21	113	16.9	13.7	4.0	2.5
1987	PIT	22	150	19.5	16.3	3.8	2.1
1988	PIT	23	144	21.2	16.4	5.5	3.6
1989	PIT	24	159	21.5	18.7	3.3	1.4
1990	PIT	25	151	24.0	17.1	7.7	5.8
1991	PIT	26	153	23.4	16.9	7.5	5.5
1992	PIT	27	140	22.1	14.7	8.3	6.6
1993	SFN	28	159	26.8	16.1	11.7	9.6
1994	SFN	29	112	18.9	12.6	7.0	5.5
1995	SFN	30	144	24.8	17.2	8.5	6.5
1996	SFN	31	158	26.1	17.0	10.1	8.0
1997	SFN	32	159	25.0	17.5	8.5	6.4
1998	SFN	33	156	24.1	17.1	7.9	5.9
1999	SFN	34	102	15.5	11.1	5.2	3.9
2000	SFN	35	142	23.3	15.8	8.2	6.3
2001	SFN	36	153	28.4	15.2	13.9	11.7
2002	SFN	37	143	24.3	12.8	12.5	10.6
2003	SFN	38	130	20.9	11.8	9.7	8.1
2004	SFN	39	147	23.3	11.8	12.3	10.5
2005	SFN	40	14	1.9	1.2	0.8	0.6
2006	SFN	41	130	15.4	11.7	4.3	3.0
2007	SFN	42	126	15.5	11.8	4.3	3.0
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,985	462.8	314.6	164.9	127.1
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			48	7.2	5.7	1.8	1.2
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			3,033	470.0	320.3	166.7	128.2

This is Barry Bonds's ninth year on the Hall-of-Fame ballot. I have written articles about the Hall-of-Fame candidates every year in which Barry Bonds has been on the BBWAA ballot. Here is what I wrote about him last year.

Vote Prediction

Superficially, Barry Bonds's vote percentages have increased over his first eight years on the Hall-of-Fame ballot, increasing from 59.1% in 2019 to 60.7% in 2020 (note: this is the 2021 ballot because it will be 2021 when the results are announced). And historically, a candidate who reaches 60% is all but guaranteed to get the final push needed to get to 75% and eventual election.

But, in fact, Bonds's vote total declined last year, from 251 (out of 425 votes cast) to 241 (out of 397 votes cast), and, generally speaking, Bonds's gain in vote percentage in recent years is almost entirely due to voters who were not voting for him dropping out of the electorate and new voters being somewhat more likely to vote for him.

Even with turnover in the voter pool during Bonds's time on the ballot, it seems fairly clear to me that Bonds (and Clemens) is facing a hard ceiling on his potential vote total and it seems very likely to me that this ceiling is somewhere below 75%. I mean, it's not like anybody needs to be convinced of the subtle value of Barry Bonds's statistical case. We're not talking about Bobby Abreu or Larry Walker here.

I predict more of the same: a modest increase in Bonds's vote percentage, but ultimately, not enough of an increase either this year or next to get him up to the 75% threshold for election. Let's go with 63.0% as a prediction for this year.

Player Won-Lost Records and Barry Bonds

Barry Bonds is hard to write about. My focus is purely statistical - and, honestly, even if it wasn't, what more is there to say about Bonds, either statistically or otherwise?

If you accept Barry Bonds's statistics at face value - and I'm not saying you should or shouldn't do so; that's your decision - he's on the short list for greatest player in major-league history. Based on Player won-lost records, there is basically one player (among those for whom I have calculated Player won-lost records) who can make a statistical case against Bonds: Babe Ruth. This isn't a particularly revolutionary notion; Player won-lost records have not uncovered a forgotten and under-appreciated superstar of this quality. Still, I thought it would be worthwhile to compare Bonds and Ruth as measured by Player won-lost records.

A couple of caveats. Player won-lost records are calculated using play-by-play data. As I write this, Retrosheet has only released play-by-play data back to 1916 and is missing some games prior to 1928. For un-released seasons, I have to simply exclude those. For seasons with missing games, I have extrapolated Ruth's won-lost record based on the games for which we do have play-by-play data. These data should therefore probably be taken with a grain (or two or three) of salt.

Beyond that, I'll just let the numbers speak for themselves.

Age	Games	Wins	Losses	WOPA	WORL	Games	Wins	Losses	WOPA	WORL
	Barry Bonds					Babe Ruth
21	113	15.7	14.8	0.2	1.6	67	27.1	16.4	11.8	14.6
22	150	19.0	16.8	1.1	2.8	52	21.3	17.9	4.4	6.9
23	144	22.0	15.6	5.4	7.2	95	26.1	16.9	9.4	11.9
24	159	21.1	19.1	0.7	2.6	130	33.8	20.3	13.1	16.3
25	151	24.9	16.3	7.4	9.3	142	28.7	14.5	13.3	15.5
26	153	24.7	15.6	8.1	10.0	152	33.6	16.6	15.9	18.5
27	140	22.3	14.5	6.9	8.7	110	20.9	12.7	7.3	9.0
28	159	27.5	15.4	11.1	13.2	152	31.7	14.3	16.5	18.9
29	112	18.7	12.8	5.2	6.7	153	30.5	16.7	12.8	15.2
30	144	25.0	17.1	6.9	9.0	98	16.1	12.8	2.4	3.9
31	158	25.6	17.5	6.9	9.0	152	27.6	16.2	10.2	12.4
32	159	25.4	17.1	7.3	9.4	151	31.4	14.8	15.5	18.0
33	156	24.7	16.6	7.1	9.2	154	29.1	16.0	11.9	14.3
34	102	15.8	10.8	4.3	5.6	135	25.4	13.9	10.4	12.4
35	142	24.0	15.1	7.9	9.8	145	24.8	16.3	7.3	9.4
36	153	28.3	15.2	12.3	14.5	145	27.0	14.5	11.4	13.5
37	143	24.5	12.6	11.1	13.0	133	22.8	11.4	10.5	12.2
38	130	21.2	11.4	9.0	10.6	137	20.5	13.4	6.2	7.9
39	147	23.7	11.4	11.5	13.3	125	17.4	12.2	4.4	6.0
40	14	1.8	1.3	0.4	0.6	28	2.9	3.5	-0.8	-0.5
41	130	15.4	11.7	3.0	4.3
42	126	15.3	12.0	2.7	4.0
------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	2,985	466.8	310.6	136.5	174.4	2,456	498.7	291.4	193.9	236.3
CAREER RECORDS (common rows)	2,729	436.0	286.9	130.8	166.1	2,456	498.7	291.4	193.9	236.3

Article last updated: November 17, 2020

2021 Hall of Fame Ballot Series

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