Scott Rolen

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
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Scott Rolen

2021 Hall of Fame Ballot Series: Scott Rolen

Five facts about Scott Rolen:

Scott Rolen made his major-league debut on August 1, 1996. His 1996 season ended when he was hit by a pitch by Steve Trachsel, breaking his arm. At that time, Rolen had 130 at bats. In order to be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award, a player must have 130 or fewer at bats entering the season.

Hence, Rolen was eligible for the 1997 Rookie of the Year award by exactly one at bat because of his injury. He took advantage to unanimously win the 1997 NL Rookie of the Year award, batting .283/.377/.469 with 35 doubles, 21 home runs, 16 stolen bases, 92 RBI, and 93 runs scored.

Scott Rolen was named to seven All-Star teams in his career. He received MVP votes four times.

Rolen's top MVP finish was 2004 when he finished fourth. That season, Rolen batted .314/.409/.598 with 34 home runs and 124 RBI, all of which were career highs.

Scott Rolen won eight Gold Gloves in his career. He is 12th in major-league history in defensive games played at third base (2,023), 11th in career assists as a third baseman (4,081), and 12th in career double plays turned as a third baseman (355).

The first two tables below present Scott Rolen's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1996	PHI	21	37	4.3	4.4	0.1	-0.3
1997	PHI	22	156	21.0	18.8	3.7	1.7
1998	PHI	23	160	21.7	17.5	5.7	3.7
1999	PHI	24	112	15.1	11.3	4.9	3.6
2000	PHI	25	128	16.1	14.7	2.6	1.1
2001	PHI	26	151	20.4	15.6	6.3	4.4
+– 2002		27	155	22.4	17.6	6.4	4.4
	PHI		100	13.9	12.0	2.9	1.6
	SLN		55	8.5	5.6	3.5	2.8
2003	SLN	28	154	20.9	16.5	5.9	4.0
2004	SLN	29	142	23.0	13.8	10.5	8.7
2005	SLN	30	56	7.0	6.0	1.4	0.8
2006	SLN	31	142	17.6	17.2	1.3	-0.3
2007	SLN	32	112	13.5	12.9	1.4	0.1
2008	TOR	33	115	13.9	11.6	3.4	2.2
+– 2009		34	128	15.3	12.2	4.3	3.0
	CIN		40	4.7	3.2	1.8	1.4
	TOR		88	10.7	9.0	2.5	1.6
2010	CIN	35	133	17.5	14.9	3.9	2.3
2011	CIN	36	65	7.8	7.8	0.7	-0.1
2012	CIN	37	91	8.9	8.8	0.7	-0.2
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,037	266.5	221.6	63.1	39.4
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			39	4.8	4.3	0.7	0.3
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,076	271.3	225.9	63.8	39.7

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1996	PHI	21	37	4.2	4.5	-0.0	-0.4
1997	PHI	22	156	21.4	18.4	4.6	2.6
1998	PHI	23	160	21.9	17.4	5.9	4.0
1999	PHI	24	112	14.9	11.5	4.4	3.1
2000	PHI	25	128	17.3	13.6	4.9	3.4
2001	PHI	26	151	20.3	15.7	6.0	4.2
+– 2002		27	155	22.1	18.0	5.7	3.7
	PHI		100	14.1	11.9	3.3	2.0
	SLN		55	8.0	6.1	2.4	1.7
2003	SLN	28	154	20.8	16.6	5.7	3.9
2004	SLN	29	142	22.0	14.9	8.3	6.5
2005	SLN	30	56	6.5	6.4	0.4	-0.2
2006	SLN	31	142	18.2	16.6	2.7	1.1
2007	SLN	32	112	13.2	13.2	0.8	-0.4
2008	TOR	33	115	12.8	12.7	1.2	0.0
+– 2009		34	128	14.9	12.7	3.3	2.0
	CIN		40	4.1	3.7	0.7	0.3
	TOR		88	10.7	9.0	2.6	1.7
2010	CIN	35	133	17.3	15.1	3.5	1.9
2011	CIN	36	65	7.6	8.1	0.2	-0.5
2012	CIN	37	91	8.6	9.0	0.1	-0.7
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,037	263.9	224.2	57.8	34.0
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			39	4.4	4.7	-0.0	-0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,076	268.3	228.9	57.7	33.5

This is Scott Rolen's fourth year on the Hall-of-Fame ballot. I have written articles about the Hall-of-Fame candidates every year in which Scott Rolen has been on the BBWAA ballot. Here is what I wrote about him last year.

Vote Prediction

Scott Rolen debuted on the 2018 Hall-of-Fame ballot with 10.2% of the vote. He saw a respectable increase in 2019 to 17.2%. Last year, in his third year on the ballot, Rolen's vote total more than doubled, to 35.3%.

Rolen's vote total will probably not double again. But I do think he is extremely well-positioned to kind of pick up where Larry Walker left off. They strike me as similar kinds of candidates: a mix of very good offense and very good defense with some in-season fragility perhaps limiting the career numbers.

Walker debuted at about double the level Rolen debuted at. But Walker's fourth year on the ballot (2014) was arguably the strongest Hall-of-Fame ballot in decades and Walker's vote total fell to 10.2%, exactly the same as Rolen's debut. Two years later, Walker climbed to 15.5% and two years after that, Walker got to 34.1%. So Rolen is making up ground twice as fast as Walker did. And two years after Walker got to 34.1%, he got to 76.6% and got himself elected to the Hall of Fame.

I think the end result of Scott Rolen's multi-year stay on the Hall-of-Fame ballot is likely to end the same way that Walker's did, with Rolen being elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA. And I think he'll probably do so quicker than Walker, who was elected in his tenth (and final) appearance. But I think that Rolen's probably about three years away from election at this point. For this year, I will predict that Rolen matches last year's gain of 18.1%, which would put him at 53.4% and leave him extremely well-positioned to be elected (probably two years later).

Player Won-Lost Records and Scott Rolen

Scott Rolen's Hall-of-Fame case is fairly straightforward. He was one of the best third basemen in baseball history. And he was one of the best players of his generation. I made the case for the first of these in last year's article about Rolen. So, this year, I'll make the case for the latter: Scott Rolen was one of the best players of his generation.

Scott Rolen's "generation" was basically 1997 - 2010. That's obviously fairly cherry-picked, but it's not like I'm cherry-picking a couple of weeks or even just a couple of seasons. This is a 14-year stretch of history. The next table shows the top 25 players over these 14 seasons as measured by pWins over either positional average (pWOPA) or replacement level (pWORL).


		pWins over Positional Average Top 25 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 25 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Barry Bonds	220.3	135.2	76.6	94.2	1	Alex Rodriguez	298.4	232.4	71.5	97.4
2	Alex Rodriguez	298.4	232.4	71.5	97.4	2	Barry Bonds	220.3	135.2	76.6	94.2
3	Albert Pujols	223.2	147.0	62.3	80.3	3	Derek Jeter	294.9	247.7	60.4	86.7
4	Derek Jeter	294.9	247.7	60.4	86.7	4	Albert Pujols	223.2	147.0	62.3	80.3
5	Pedro J. Martinez	150.7	99.3	56.7	73.5	5	Chipper Jones	264.0	200.7	55.8	78.5
6	Chipper Jones	264.0	200.7	55.8	78.5	6	Manny Ramirez	267.6	206.6	50.8	74.9
7	Manny Ramirez	267.6	206.6	50.8	74.9	7	Pedro J. Martinez	150.7	99.3	56.7	73.5
8	Randy 'Big Unit' Johnson	178.3	138.1	49.7	70.3	8	Randy 'Big Unit' Johnson	178.3	138.1	49.7	70.3
9	Mariano Rivera	98.3	46.4	49.1	62.9	9	Vladimir Guerrero Sr.	283.1	231.5	36.9	63.3
10	Jim Edmonds	217.0	168.2	44.3	63.1	10	Jim Edmonds	217.0	168.2	44.3	63.1
11	Roger Clemens	142.0	103.8	42.2	58.9	11	Andruw Jones	265.9	219.2	39.3	63.1
12	Curt Schilling	150.2	117.1	41.4	58.8	12	Mariano Rivera	98.3	46.4	49.1	62.9
13	Scott Rolen	245.5	200.6	39.9	61.6	13	Scott Rolen	245.5	200.6	39.9	61.6
14	Jason Giambi	202.8	152.6	39.3	58.4	14	Roger Clemens	142.0	103.8	42.2	58.9
15	Roy Halladay	141.8	106.1	39.3	56.3	15	Jim Thome	202.1	151.3	39.1	58.9
16	Andruw Jones	265.9	219.2	39.3	63.1	16	Curt Schilling	150.2	117.1	41.4	58.8
17	Jim Thome	202.1	151.3	39.1	58.9	17	Jason Giambi	202.8	152.6	39.3	58.4
18	Vladimir Guerrero Sr.	283.1	231.5	36.9	63.3	18	Jeff Kent	231.8	197.2	35.8	56.7
19	Johan Santana	119.6	87.2	36.0	50.1	19	Bobby Abreu	285.4	239.8	30.7	56.3
20	Jeff Kent	231.8	197.2	35.8	56.7	20	Roy Halladay	141.8	106.1	39.3	56.3
21	Jorge Posada	164.5	138.6	35.0	50.2	21	Andy Pettitte	170.3	140.7	34.5	55.6
22	Roy Oswalt	132.8	107.2	34.8	50.0	22	Greg Maddux	168.8	147.5	33.8	53.7
23	John Smoltz	120.0	90.6	34.8	49.3	23	David Ortiz	166.1	125.3	33.9	52.9
24	Andy Pettitte	170.3	140.7	34.5	55.6	24	Gary Sheffield	220.8	177.5	32.2	52.7
25	Lance Berkman	212.3	164.9	34.2	52.6	25	Lance Berkman	212.3	164.9	34.2	52.6

Was he the best player in baseball over this time period? No. But I tend to think that if you're in the top N players over an N-year period you're a Hall of Famer if N is big enough. And in this case, N is 14, which is plenty big enough.

Article last updated: December 2, 2020

2021 Hall of Fame Ballot Series

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