On its website, the BBWAA revealed the ballots of 125 voters in the 2013 election (out of 569 ballots total). Almost half of those ballots (61) included at least 8 players who will be on the 2014 ballot as well. This means that these voters couldn't add all of 4-time Cy Young and 355-game winner Greg Maddux, 2-time Cy Young and 305-game winner Tom Glavine, and 2-time MVP and 521-HR hitter Frank Thomas to their ballot without removing somebody they voted for in 2013.

Nearly 70% of the 2013 ballots revealed by the BBWAA (86 of 125) included at least 6 players who will return for the 2014 ballot. These voters could fill their ballots simply by adding Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, and 270-game winner Mike Mussina.

Voters may well be open to persuasion or interested in having conversations about the Hall-of-Fame cases for Mike Piazza or Craig Biggio or Jeff Bagwell or Jeff Kent. But with the 10-man ballot limit, the majority of Hall-of-Fame voters are simply unable to have those conversations. Or, at the very least, the question becomes not simply, "Does Jeff Kent deserve to be in the Hall of Fame?" but "Does Jeff Kent deserve to be in the Hall of Fame more than somebody that I voted for last year?" That becomes a much more difficult and much less "joyful" conversation.

And it's a problem that's only likely to get worse. If there's no room for voters to add Tim Raines to their ballots, then Tim Raines can't gain any upward momentum toward 75%. But meanwhile, Tim Raines is likely to stay on many of the ballots of the 52% of voters who have already decided he's a worthy Hall-of-Famer. Which, in turn, clogs those ballots up from considering other worthy candidates.

If the 10-man limit on the ballot is removed, though, now, the voters are free to engage in those conversations again. Voters who are not already voting for Tim Raines are now free to at least consider him without having to re-consider all of the other players the voter has already decided are deserving Hall-of-Fame candidates. And those voters are, in turn, free to converse with Raines voters and try to persuade them to support other worthy candidates: Alan Trammell, Larry Walker, Curt Schilling, et al. And the new candidates, such as Mike Mussina and Jeff Kent, can be given a full and fair evaluation based purely on their own merits, rather than as part of a complicated strategical evaluation of what subset of deserving players to include on one's size-limited ballot.

More talking about great baseball players. More celebration of baseball history. More joy in Hall-of-Fame debates. What's not to love?

The Data

What We Know

• Known Ballots had 0.4 more names per ballot on average than Unknown Ballots (even counting the one blank ballot as "known").
• As Thibbs pointed out, 23 of 24 votes for 1st-year players who failed to get 5% of the vote were cast by Unknown Voters.
• All 3 players elected received fewer votes from Unknown Ballots than Known Ballots, although all 3 received at least 75% support from both groups.
• Craig Biggio's support was very similar across the two groups, but was slightly greater than 75% among Known Ballots (75.8%) and slightly less than 75% among Unknown Ballots (73.8%).
• The biggest gap between Known and Unknown Ballots was for Tim Raines, who was named by a majority of Known Ballots (54.3%) but only 37.6% among Unknown Ballots, a difference of 16.7%. Other (Known minus Unknown) gaps greater than 10.0% were Schilling (15.0%), Thomas (12.7%), Bonds (11.8%), and Piazza (10.0%).
• The largest gap the other way (Unknown minus Known) was Lee Smith (13.0%) who was the only player with a gap of more than 10% in that direction.
• Known McGriff voters exceed Unknown McGriff voters by exactly one (34-33); Unknown Trammell voters exceed Known Trammell voters by exactly one (60-59).

What We Can Guess

The Most Frequently Mentioned Cap Casualty

"A colleague of mine in the Baltimore-Washington sports media corps has insisted for years that Mussina was a Hall of Famer, a statement I always greeted with mock. (Mock directed at my colleague, mind you, not Mussina.) I just didn’t think of him as a Hall of Famer, and I was sure the overwhelming majority of fellow voters would feel the same way. Well, a funny thing happened once I actually started examining Mussina’s career last month: I realized he truly does have a case. He may not have the awards and reputation of Tom Glavine, but the two were quite similar pitchers. No, he never won the AL ERA title, but he finished in the top five an impressive seven times. He has one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in history. He’s got a strong postseason record. And, yes, he pitched his whole career in hitter-friendly ballparks against tough AL East lineups. (Though I think that last point is exaggerated a bit. He didn’t have to face the Orioles’ explosive lineup while pitching for Baltimore, and he didn’t have to face the Yankees’ modern murderer’s row while pitching for New York.) But I will admit I seriously considered this guy and might very well have voted for him … if not for that pesky, 10-player limit rule. Mussina was definitely the 11th guy on my ballot. If I was allowed to vote for 11 players, I very well might have included him. But I’m only allowed to vote for 10, so he unfortunately got caught in the numbers game."

Voter Strategy

• The top four returning vote-getters - Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Jack Morris, and Mike Piazza - were Known Ballot Cap Casualties an average of 6 times apiece.
• Excluding the "known steroid users" (about whom I'll talk later in this article), the seven returning vote-getters who received between 20% and 53% of the vote in 2013 were Known Ballot Cap Casualties an average of 13.1 times apiece.

What Might the Voting Results Have Looked Like If There Was No Ballot Cap?

Are These Results Reasonable?

• The average 2013 voter voted for 6.29 players who were on the 2014 ballot.
• In the above table, the 9.49 names per ballot break down as 3.43 first-year players and 6.06 names of returning players.

Might I Be Under-Estimating the Number of Ballot Cap Casualties?

"Finally, it got a little more difficult. Should I stop at nine? Or should I add one more to reach the maximum votes we can cast?"

Or Would Support for Returning Players Have Declined Even Without the Ballot Cap?

Analysis of Final Results

The 2014 Hall-of-Fame Class That Should Have Been

No Known Voters identified Greg Maddux as a ballot cap casualty (although comment #1928 here suggests that there were "at least three or four voters who did just this"). Hence, my estimate of Maddux's uncapped vote percentage is identical to his actual vote percentage (97.2%). I suspect, however, that Maddux would have done a bit better on an uncapped ballot and might have come closer to the record for overall vote percentage (98.8%).

Tom Glavine would have received an estimated 92.5% of the vote in the absence of the ballot cap (versus 91.9% actual). This would have almost exactly matched Jim Palmer's vote percentage (92.6% in 1990). I wrote an article comparing Glavine and Palmer as part of my 2014 Hall-of-Fame ballot series last month.

Frank Thomas would have received an estimated 86.0% of the vote in the absence of the ballot cap (versus 83.7% actual). This is similar to the first-ballot percentages of Paul Molitor (85.2% in 2004), who was the first Hall-of-Fame player who played more games at DH than at any other single position, and Eddie Murray (85.3% in 2003), who was the last first-ballot electee with 500 or more career home runs before Thomas.

On the Path to Induction

Jeff Bagwell finished third in his third season in 2013 balloting, behind only Biggio and Morris, with 339 votes (59.6%). In actual 2014 balloting, Bagwell's support declined by 29 votes (to 310) and 5.3% (to 54.3%). Including estimated ballot cap casualties, I estimate that Jeff Bagwell would have received 340 votes (59.5%). In other words, but for the ballot cap, Jeff Bagwell's support would have held constant in 2014. This is not necessarily ideal in terms of Bagwell moving toward eventual induction, but one year not gaining votes in the wake of a strong freshman class is neither fatal nor unusual. For example, Tony Perez saw his support decline in both his 4th and 8th years on the ballot (1995, 1999), but was able to more than make up these losses the next year, gaining 16.4% of the vote from 1999 to 2000 to win election in his 9th year on the ballot.

Mike Piazza was one of only two returning players who saw his actual support increase from 2013 to 2014, with his votes increasing from 329 (57.8%) to 355 (62.2%). Without the ballot cap, I estimate that Piazza's support in 2014 would have been 64.4%. In the absence of the ballot cap, Piazza would seem to be following Carlton Fisk's path to induction with a one-year lag. Fisk debuted in 1999 on a strong ballot that included three first-year inductees with 66.4% of the vote. Fisk was elected the next year with 79.6% of the vote. Hopefully, the BBWAA will do away with the ballot cap this year and Mike Piazza can follow Fisk's lead and be inducted into the Hall of Fame as early as next year.

Tim Raines broke 50% in balloting in 2013 for the first time in his sixth appearance on the BBWAA's Hall-of-Fame ballot. In actual 2014 voting, Raines's vote total declined by 36 (6.2%). Raines was one of the more frequent players named as a Known Ballot Cap Casualty, being named 12 times. Projecting that up, that leads to an estimated vote percentage for Raines of 53.1% if the BBWAA had no ballot cap. This would have been Raines's fifth straight season of increased support in Hall-of-Fame voting. This is somewhat similar to the path taken by Raines's former Expos teammate, Andre Dawson, who gained steadily (outside of a downward blip in 2007 voting). Dawson received 65.9% of the vote in his seventh year on the ballot (2001) before being elected two years later. Raines is a bit behind that pace but is hopefully still on a path to eventually join Dawson in Cooperstown.

Pitchers

Steroid Users

"Although I'm not ready to commit to never voting for someone who has been tied to performance-enhancing drugs, for the second straight year I did leave off my ballot the five names most prominently mentioned in that regard -- Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and Sammy Sosa -- and had little trouble doing so, given the qualifications of at least another dozen or so candidates." (emphasis added)

Everybody Else

Edgar Martinez is estimated by me to have received 35.6% of the vote in 2014 in the absence of the ballot cap. That would be virtually identical to his 2013 vote total of 35.9%. So far, Edgar Martinez has appeared on five Hall-of-Fame ballots. His vote totals on the first four of those ballots ranged from 32.9% (in his second year, 2011) to 36.5% (in 2012). Ultimately, even removing the ballot cap, Edgar Martinez's Hall-of-Fame candidacy appears to be stuck.

Alan Trammell appeared on his 13th Hall-of-Fame ballot in 2014. He only has two more chances left with the BBWAA. After spending eight years getting 13% - 18% support in Hall-of-Fame balloting, Trammell saw his support rise from 17.4% in 2009 to 36.8% in 2012, a fairly remarkable surge. In 2013, his support slipped from 36.8% to 33.6%. Even without the ballot cap, I estimate that his support would have slipped some more in 2014 to 27.8%. Unfortunately, Trammell is not going to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA despite being highly deserving of the honor.

Jeff Kent debuted on the 2014 ballot with 15.2% support. That is very similar to Alan Trammell's debut support (15.7% in 2002) and it is possible that Jeff Kent will suffer the same Hall-of-Fame fate as Trammell. But if there had been no ballot cap, I estimate that Jeff Kent would have received 24.5% of the vote in his debut year. This is still a total that far from guarantees eventual election. On the other hand, it is not that much lower, for example, than Jim Rice's debut in 1995 of 29.8%. As such, it is probably too early to say for sure how Jeff Kent might fare in future Hall-of-Fame voting.

Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, and Don Mattingly all saw their support plummet by 5-10% from 2013 to 2014. Much of that was the ballot cap in all three cases, but not all of it. Without the ballot cap, I estimate that Walker, McGriff, and Mattingly would have still seen declines in their vote percentages of 3.4%, 2.7%, and 3.2%, respectively. This is likely indicative of the fact that none of the three of them have shown any positive trends in ballot support over time which could be leading some of their supporters to abandon them.

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