Jack Morris

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Jack Morris

Hall-of-Famers as Seen Through Player Won-Lost Records: Jack Morris

Jack Morris was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Modern Era Veterans' Committee in 2018.

Five highlights of Jack Morris's career:

Jack Morris holds the major-league record for consecutive Opening Day starts by a pitcher with 14 from 1980 through 1993.

Morris was named to five All-Star teams. He started the 1981, 1985, and 1991 All-Star games for the American League.

Morris pitched for three World Series winners. He pitched two complete-game wins in the 1984 World Series (2.00 ERA); he was named World Series MVP in 1991 (3 starts, 2-0, 1.17 ERA). He also pitched in the 1992 World Series with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Morris received Cy Young votes seven times and MVP votes five times.

Through Jack Morris's prime, 1979 - 1992, Morris led all major-league pitchers in wins (233), starts (464), complete games (169), and innings pitched (3,378.1), and was second in strikeouts (2,199).

The first two tables below present Jack Morris's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1977	DET	22	7	1.7	2.1	-0.2	-0.4
1978	DET	23	28	3.9	4.6	-0.1	-0.8
1979	DET	24	28	11.2	9.0	3.7	2.4
1980	DET	25	44	14.5	12.5	4.0	2.3
1981	DET	26	25	11.3	9.4	3.4	2.1
1982	DET	27	37	16.2	16.8	1.7	-0.4
1983	DET	28	44	15.7	14.9	3.1	1.1
1984	DET	29	35	15.4	13.4	4.1	2.2
1985	DET	30	36	16.6	11.9	6.9	5.0
1986	DET	31	35	16.9	13.2	5.9	4.0
1987	DET	32	36	16.7	13.9	5.1	3.1
1988	DET	33	34	14.4	14.1	2.3	0.5
1989	DET	34	24	8.8	12.1	-1.8	-3.2
1990	DET	35	36	13.2	16.3	-0.9	-2.9
1991	MIN	36	35	15.2	14.6	2.8	0.8
1992	TOR	37	34	14.5	10.9	5.6	3.8
1993	TOR	38	27	8.5	11.4	-1.4	-2.7
1994	CLE	39	23	7.9	8.1	1.1	-0.0
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			568	222.8	209.0	45.2	16.7
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			14	5.7	5.8	0.9	0.1
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			582	228.5	214.8	46.1	16.8

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1977	DET	22	7	2.0	1.8	0.4	0.2
1978	DET	23	28	4.2	4.3	0.4	-0.2
1979	DET	24	28	10.6	9.6	2.5	1.2
1980	DET	25	44	14.1	12.9	3.1	1.3
1981	DET	26	25	10.9	9.7	2.7	1.3
1982	DET	27	37	16.1	16.9	1.5	-0.6
1983	DET	28	44	15.7	14.9	2.9	0.9
1984	DET	29	35	14.7	14.1	2.7	0.9
1985	DET	30	36	15.6	12.9	4.9	3.0
1986	DET	31	35	15.3	14.8	2.7	0.7
1987	DET	32	36	16.0	14.6	3.7	1.7
1988	DET	33	34	14.2	14.2	2.0	0.1
1989	DET	34	24	8.9	12.0	-1.5	-2.9
1990	DET	35	36	14.5	15.0	1.6	-0.3
1991	MIN	36	35	15.8	14.1	3.9	1.9
1992	TOR	37	34	13.2	12.2	2.9	1.2
1993	TOR	38	27	9.1	10.8	-0.3	-1.6
1994	CLE	39	23	7.7	8.3	0.5	-0.6
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			568	218.6	213.2	36.6	8.1
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			14	5.7	5.8	0.9	0.1
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			582	224.3	219.0	37.5	8.3

Jack Morris appeared on the first two Hall-of-Fame ballots for which I wrote articles about all of the players. In those two articles, I looked at what were essentially the two arguments in support of Jack Morris's Hall-of-Fame candidacy.

Jack Morris: Best Pitcher of the 1980s?

One of the key arguments in support of Jack Morris's Hall-of-Fame candidacy was that he had the most wins in the 1980s. Of course, that statement refers to pitcher wins. So where does he rank in wins when wins are assigned to all players as I do? It turns out that he ranks 43^rd in pWins from 1980 - 1989.

The next table shows the top 50 players in pWins during the 1980s.

Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Most pWins during the 1980s
Dale Murphy	217.1	183.7	23.5	42.6
Rickey Henderson	213.0	165.9	40.2	58.4
Andre Dawson	206.3	172.1	23.7	41.7
Robin Yount	202.1	169.6	35.9	53.9
Dwight Evans	201.2	162.0	31.6	49.3
Ozzie Smith	198.6	176.9	30.4	48.3
Mike Schmidt	187.9	145.9	36.1	52.0
Dave Winfield	184.8	158.3	19.0	35.5
Alan Trammell	184.2	159.0	36.7	53.2
Tim Raines Sr.	183.9	154.9	18.8	35.0
Lou Whitaker	183.6	157.7	32.1	48.4
Willie Wilson	181.0	175.6	0.6	17.6
Eddie Murray	180.3	144.0	25.7	41.4
Cal Ripken	179.5	158.8	31.1	47.1
Jim Rice	178.9	163.4	8.3	25.3
Lloyd Moseby	168.3	163.3	1.5	17.4
Frank White	167.8	163.4	10.7	26.5
Harold Baines	166.5	157.3	2.7	19.2
Ryne Sandberg	164.0	150.5	14.4	29.3
Willie Randolph	163.1	148.2	20.2	35.1
George Brett	162.4	128.5	30.1	44.2
Dave Parker	160.8	148.6	2.5	17.8
Tom Brunansky	160.4	152.4	0.4	15.3
Pedro Guerrero	160.3	128.2	23.9	37.6
Steve Sax	160.0	162.7	-0.3	15.1
Jose Cruz Sr.	158.1	140.8	7.3	21.6
Jack Clark	158.0	122.4	25.6	39.3
Chet Lemon	157.3	142.2	11.3	25.6
Keith Hernandez	155.3	122.6	20.2	33.5
Wade Boggs	152.9	125.2	26.7	39.9
Tim Wallach	152.7	143.3	4.4	18.5
Garry Templeton	152.5	152.7	7.1	21.7
Buddy Bell	151.1	141.6	7.0	21.0
Tom Herr	151.0	143.7	9.6	23.6
Brian Downing	150.4	131.8	13.4	28.3
Gary Carter	150.4	126.2	27.5	40.7
Paul Molitor	150.4	129.4	20.4	34.3
Alfredo Griffin	148.2	173.1	-13.5	1.8
Carney Lansford	148.1	146.6	-0.1	14.1
Jesse Barfield	148.0	123.4	19.7	32.7
Tony Gwynn Sr.	147.3	127.3	11.3	24.3
Darryl Strawberry	147.2	105.4	34.4	46.4
Jack Morris	146.6	132.1	16.6	34.7
Johnny C. Ray	146.3	153.4	-4.5	9.8
Chili Davis	146.0	138.4	0.5	14.1
Kirk Gibson	145.3	113.3	26.9	39.5
Rafael Ramirez	145.2	155.4	-3.7	10.7
Brett Butler	145.0	143.4	-3.6	10.2
Hubie Brooks	144.6	144.7	-2.7	11.1
Keith Moreland	144.2	149.8	-13.7	0.6

While it's true that Jack Morris shows up fairly low on this list, it's worth noting that the preceding table only includes 1 pitcher.

The next table shows the top 10 pitchers in pWins during the 1980s.

Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Most pWins during the 1980s: Pitchers
Jack Morris	146.6	132.1	16.6	34.7
Dave Stieb	137.8	117.6	22.0	38.7
Fernando Valenzuela	137.5	128.9	18.0	33.8
Nolan Ryan	135.7	128.3	15.7	31.6
Bob Welch	131.0	117.4	21.3	36.2
Charlie Hough	121.9	119.0	4.5	20.4
Bert Blyleven	120.7	111.0	12.1	27.1
Jim Clancy	120.5	119.6	3.2	18.7
Mike Scott	114.5	110.2	11.9	25.4
Rick Sutcliffe	113.7	106.4	13.0	26.6

In other words, Jack Morris does, in fact, lead all pitchers in pWins during the 1980s. But pWins are more useful when they are put into context, measured, for example, against opportunity. The next table, then, shows the top 10 pitchers in pWins over replacement level (pWORL) during the 1980s.

Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Most pWORL during the 1980s: Pitchers
Dave Stieb	137.8	117.6	22.0	38.7
Dwight Gooden	89.1	65.9	28.6	37.8
Bob Welch	131.0	117.4	21.3	36.2
Dan Quisenberry	68.5	41.1	25.3	35.0
Jack Morris	146.6	132.1	16.6	34.7
Roger Clemens	80.9	56.5	25.5	34.6
Fernando Valenzuela	137.5	128.9	18.0	33.8
Nolan Ryan	135.7	128.3	15.7	31.6
Dave Righetti	80.8	59.9	19.7	31.0
Orel Hershiser	91.6	77.1	20.2	30.3

I'll let the results there speak for themselves.

Jack Morris: World Series Hero

Jack Morris had one of the most famous and impressive pitching performances in major-league history. In Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, Jack Morris pitched a complete-game 10-inning shutout which was won by Morris's hometown Minnesota Twins in the bottom of the tenth inning, 1-0.

So, how impressive was Jack Morris's performance in that game?

Player won-lost records are perfectly designed to answer that question. I calculate pWins so that they tie precisely to team wins: specifically, the players on the winning team earn 2 pWins and 1 pLoss, while the players on the losing team earn 1 pWin and 2 pLosses. So, the players on a winning team earn 2 pWins and 1 net pWin (pWins minus pLosses)

Overall, in 1991, pitching accounted for approximately 32% of total Player decisions. So, all else equal, one might expect pitchers to earn about 0.63 pWins per team win or about 0.32 net pWins.

With that for a context, the next table shows the performance of the players on the 1991 Minnesota Twins in Game 7 of the World Series, ranked by net pWins.

Player Won-Lost Records by Player: Summary

	Basic Player Won-Lost Records (sorted by net pWins)
	pWins	pLosses	Net pWins	eWins	eLosses	Net eWins

Minnesota Twins
Jack Morris	0.66	0.17	0.49	0.58	0.32	0.26
Brian Harper	0.22	0.06	0.17	0.24	0.11	0.13
Dan Gladden	0.21	0.08	0.13	0.20	0.11	0.09
Gene Larkin	0.15	0.04	0.11	0.06	0.02	0.04
Chuck Knoblauch	0.17	0.09	0.07	0.17	0.17	-0.00
Kirby Puckett	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.10	0.00
Randy Bush	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.03	0.00	0.03
Al Newman	0.03	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02
Mike Pagliarulo	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.09	-0.05
Scott Leius	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01
Greg Gagne	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.04	0.05	-0.01
Chili Davis	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.10	-0.05
Jarvis Brown	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.02	-0.02
Shane Mack	0.06	0.09	-0.03	0.08	0.11	-0.03
Kent Hrbek	0.18	0.22	-0.04	0.15	0.11	0.04
Paul Sorrento	0.00	0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.02
Team Totals	2	1	1	1.77	1.34	0.43

Not surprisingly, pitching a 10-inning complete-game shutout is more valuable than the average pitching performance. Two of the next three players in the above table are the players who scored (Dan Gladden) and drove in (Gene Larkin) the only run of the game. The other top player, Brian Harper, went 2-for-4 in the game and was also in the middle of a key 3-2-3 bases-loaded double play to end the top of the eighth inning.

Of course, the above table just treats this as any ordinary game. It seems perfectly reasonable to me to weigh Game 7 of the World Series as somewhat more important than an ordinary game. How much more important is left as a exercise for the reader.

Article last updated: September 24, 2019

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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