Ron Santo

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
Home List of Articles

Ron Santo

Hall-of-Famers as Seen Through Player Won-Lost Records: Ron Santo

Ron Santo was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans' Committee in 2012.

Five highlights of Ron Santo's career:

In his SABR Biography of Ron Santo, Joseph Wancho tells a story of the Cubs’ 1959 rookie camp.

"At the conclusion of the three-week camp, [Cubs hitting instructor and Hall-of-Famer Rogers] Hornsby assembled the prospects in the bleachers. He went down the line critiquing every player.... He got to Santo and said, 'You can hit in the big leagues right now.' He made similar comments to [Billy] Williams, the only other player Hornsby said would make the major leagues.... Of the whole group, only Santo and Williams made it to the major leagues."

Ron Santo was named to nine All-Star teams in his career. He received MVP votes seven times and won five Gold Gloves.

Santo led the National League in walks four times, in on-base percentage twice, in games played twice (including 164 games played in 1965), and in triples once (in 1964 with 13). Santo hit 30 or more home runs four times, had 100 or more RBI four times, and scored 90 or more runs four times.

Santo played the ninth-most games at third base in major-league history (2,130). He is sixth all-time in assists as a third baseman (4,581) and ninth in major-league history among third basemen in double plays (395).

On May 28, 1966, Ron Santo hit a three-run home run with two out in the bottom of the twelfth inning to beat the Atlanta Braves, 8-5. On May 29, 1966, Ron Santo hit a solo home run leading off the bottom of the tenth to beat the Braves, 3-2. This feat - back-to-back walk-off extra-inning home runs - was not repeated in the National League until 2011 (by Albert Pujols).

The first two tables below present Ron Santo's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1960	CHN	20	95	10.3	10.3	0.7	-0.4
1961	CHN	21	154	17.2	18.6	-0.0	-1.9
1962	CHN	22	162	17.2	21.7	-3.1	-5.0
1963	CHN	23	162	22.8	20.6	3.8	1.6
1964	CHN	24	161	22.9	18.6	5.8	3.7
1965	CHN	25	164	23.6	19.0	6.0	3.9
1966	CHN	26	155	21.5	18.6	4.1	2.2
1967	CHN	27	161	23.3	17.2	7.4	5.4
1968	CHN	28	162	24.1	18.1	7.5	5.4
1969	CHN	29	160	23.3	18.2	6.5	4.4
1970	CHN	30	154	20.5	17.0	4.6	2.7
1971	CHN	31	154	19.9	17.4	3.5	1.7
1972	CHN	32	133	17.0	14.4	3.7	2.1
1973	CHN	33	149	19.6	18.3	2.3	0.5
1974	CHA	34	117	10.1	11.0	0.4	-0.7
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,243	293.3	259.0	53.2	25.6
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,243	293.3	259.0	53.2	25.6

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1960	CHN	20	95	10.1	10.6	0.2	-0.8
1961	CHN	21	154	18.5	17.3	2.6	0.7
1962	CHN	22	162	18.5	20.4	-0.4	-2.4
1963	CHN	23	162	23.7	19.7	5.6	3.5
1964	CHN	24	161	24.0	17.5	8.0	5.9
1965	CHN	25	164	24.3	18.3	7.6	5.5
1966	CHN	26	155	22.9	17.2	6.9	5.0
1967	CHN	27	161	23.7	16.8	8.2	6.2
1968	CHN	28	162	23.4	18.9	6.2	4.1
1969	CHN	29	160	22.7	18.8	5.7	3.6
1970	CHN	30	154	19.9	17.6	3.3	1.4
1971	CHN	31	154	19.6	17.8	2.9	1.0
1972	CHN	32	133	17.4	14.0	4.5	3.0
1973	CHN	33	149	19.4	18.5	1.9	0.1
1974	CHA	34	117	9.7	11.4	-0.4	-1.5
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			2,243	297.6	254.7	62.8	35.3
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			2,243	297.6	254.7	62.8	35.3

Ron Santo was widely regarded in sabermetric circles as the best player not in the Hall of Fame for probably at least 20 years before he was finally elected, maybe longer. This is, of course, no longer true, since Ron Santo was finally elected to the Hall of Fame in 2012, although, personally, I think it was somewhat disgraceful that he wasn't elected until after his death.

Ron Santo vs. Other Third Basemen

The next table shows the top 10 players in career (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) eWins over positional average earned at third base, among players for whom I have calculated Player won-lost records. (That includes full data going back to 1928 and at least partial data for every season since 1916.)

		Top Career Third Basemen
		eWins	eLosses	eWinPct	eWOPA
1	Mike Schmidt	315.2	240.9	0.567	65.7
2	Eddie Mathews	293.4	229.5	0.561	56.0
3	Chipper Jones	266.7	214.9	0.554	45.5
4	Ron Santo	286.6	244.0	0.540	33.8
5	George Brett	220.6	187.4	0.541	31.5
6	Wade Boggs	272.9	240.9	0.531	31.0
7	Scott Rolen	261.3	224.6	0.538	30.9
8	Adrian Beltre	339.5	306.0	0.526	29.0
9	Alex Rodriguez	160.9	132.0	0.549	27.9
10	Ron Cey	249.4	215.7	0.536	25.7

As measured by Player won-lost records, Ron Santo rates as the fourth-best third baseman of the past 70-80 years. Perhaps even more impressive, at the time of his retirement (after the 1974 season), Ron Santo might well have been the second-best third baseman in major-league history, behind only Eddie Mathews.

How does the second-best third baseman in major-league history fail to get elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame for over thirty years?

Ron Santo vs. Other Players of the 1960's

Basically, all of Ron Santo's prime fell within the decade of the 1960's. The next table presents the top 25 players of the 1960's as measured by eWins over both positional average and replacement level.

		eWins over Positional Average Top 25 Players						eWins over Replacement Level Top 25 Players
	Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL		Player	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
1	Willie Mays	234.6	175.3	50.2	70.7	1	Willie Mays	234.6	175.3	50.2	70.7
2	Hank Aaron	249.0	185.1	48.4	70.1	2	Hank Aaron	249.0	185.1	48.4	70.1
3	Frank Robinson	225.1	166.0	44.1	63.6	3	Frank Robinson	225.1	166.0	44.1	63.6
4	Harmon Killebrew	192.8	141.6	39.4	56.1	4	Juan Marichal	166.9	139.9	38.9	57.3
5	Mickey Mantle	153.1	107.0	39.2	52.4	5	Harmon Killebrew	192.8	141.6	39.4	56.1
6	Juan Marichal	166.9	139.9	38.9	57.3	6	Bob Gibson	165.7	140.2	35.9	54.5
7	Bob Gibson	165.7	140.2	35.9	54.5	7	Mickey Mantle	153.1	107.0	39.2	52.4
8	Willie McCovey	163.0	117.3	34.8	48.9	8	Ron Santo	211.7	175.4	31.3	50.6
9	Ron Santo	211.7	175.4	31.3	50.6	9	Willie McCovey	163.0	117.3	34.8	48.9
10	Al Kaline	186.5	144.2	30.3	46.9	10	Al Kaline	186.5	144.2	30.3	46.9
11	Eddie Mathews	151.7	119.8	27.3	40.9	11	Roberto Clemente	221.8	181.7	24.5	44.6
12	Norm Cash	163.8	123.6	26.0	40.4	12	Carl Yastrzemski	202.7	165.7	25.1	43.4
13	Carl Yastrzemski	202.7	165.7	25.1	43.4	13	Eddie Mathews	151.7	119.8	27.3	40.9
14	Dick Allen	128.0	98.3	24.8	36.0	14	Norm Cash	163.8	123.6	26.0	40.4
15	Sandy Koufax	116.9	101.4	24.5	38.1	15	Larry Jackson	149.1	136.6	23.0	40.3
16	Roberto Clemente	221.8	181.7	24.5	44.6	16	Jim Bunning	158.5	148.3	21.5	40.3
17	Larry Jackson	149.1	136.6	23.0	40.3	17	Don Drysdale	163.8	155.3	19.9	39.0
18	Jim Bunning	158.5	148.3	21.5	40.3	18	Brooks Robinson	205.1	179.3	19.6	38.7
19	Roger Maris	140.8	110.1	21.0	33.6	19	Sandy Koufax	116.9	101.4	24.5	38.1
20	Jimmy Wynn	130.6	104.1	20.4	32.1	20	Dick Allen	128.0	98.3	24.8	36.0
21	Jim Fregosi	157.0	143.5	20.2	35.1	21	Bob Allison	170.7	139.1	20.0	35.6
22	Bob Allison	170.7	139.1	20.0	35.6	22	Billy Williams	204.7	173.4	16.3	35.2
23	Dick McAuliffe	146.0	129.9	19.9	33.6	23	Jim Fregosi	157.0	143.5	20.2	35.1
24	Don Drysdale	163.8	155.3	19.9	39.0	24	Orlando Cepeda	171.4	137.9	18.2	33.7
25	Brooks Robinson	205.1	179.3	19.6	38.7	25	Dick McAuliffe	146.0	129.9	19.9	33.6

By both of the measures shown above, Ron Santo was one of the 10 best baseball players of the 1960's. Yes, to some extent, this is to the advantage of Ron Santo, as the best years of his career lined up perfectly with the decade of the 1960's. But being one of the 10 best baseball players over any 10-year period is a damn impressive feat.

Before his election in 2012, Santo was the only player among the top 11 players in pWOPA and the top 13 players in pWORL in the 1960s not in the Hall of Fame. How exactly did that happen?

Putting Ron Santo in Context

The argument most commonly made as to why Ron Santo was ignored for so long by Hall-of-Fame voters was that Ron Santo's statistical record had to be put into its proper context. Santo's prime years - the late 1960's - were the lowest-scoring period of baseball history since the Deadball Era.

In 1967, Ron Santo finished third in the National League in home runs with 31. In 2001, Luis Gonzalez finished third in the National League in home runs with 57.

In 1968, Ron Santo finished second in the National League with 98 RBI. In 2001, Todd Helton finished second in the National League in RBI with 146.

There is certainly a great deal of truth to this. Ron Santo's raw statistics are lower because of when he played. He also excelled in certain statistics that were, perhaps, less well-regarded in traditional circles (Santo led his league in on-base percentage twice and in walks four times).

But looking at Player won-lost records, something almost the reverse of this argument also appears.

I calculate Player won-lost records two ways: pWins, which tie to team wins and eWins, which control for context and the ability of one's teammates. For players with more pWins than eWins, their Player wins contributed to more team wins than one might expect; for players with more eWins than pWins, just the opposite is true: their Player wins translated into fewer team wins than expected. Or more briefly: a player with more pWins than eWins was better in context, a player with more eWins than pWins was worse in context.

As shown above, Ron Santo is an extremely strong Hall-of-Fame candidate when evaluated using eWins.

The next table looks at the top 25 players of the 1960's as measured in context, i.e., as measured by pWins over either positional average or replacement level.

		pWins over Positional Average Top 25 Players						pWins over Replacement Level Top 25 Players
	Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL		Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
1	Willie Mays	241.7	168.1	64.4	84.9	1	Willie Mays	241.7	168.1	64.4	84.9
2	Juan Marichal	174.7	132.1	52.7	71.1	2	Hank Aaron	250.5	183.6	51.7	73.4
3	Hank Aaron	250.5	183.6	51.7	73.4	3	Juan Marichal	174.7	132.1	52.7	71.1
4	Frank Robinson	228.0	163.2	50.0	69.6	4	Frank Robinson	228.0	163.2	50.0	69.6
5	Mickey Mantle	155.9	104.2	44.5	57.6	5	Bob Gibson	169.1	136.9	41.3	59.9
6	Willie McCovey	167.3	113.0	42.9	57.0	6	Mickey Mantle	155.9	104.2	44.5	57.6
7	Bob Gibson	169.1	136.9	41.3	59.9	7	Willie McCovey	167.3	113.0	42.9	57.0
8	Harmon Killebrew	193.3	141.2	40.3	57.0	8	Harmon Killebrew	193.3	141.2	40.3	57.0
9	Sandy Koufax	125.8	92.6	39.8	53.5	9	Sandy Koufax	125.8	92.6	39.8	53.5
10	Roger Maris	146.1	104.7	32.4	45.0	10	Roberto Clemente	225.0	178.5	30.8	50.9
11	Al Kaline	187.6	143.2	32.3	48.9	11	Jim Bunning	163.7	143.1	30.1	48.9
12	Roberto Clemente	225.0	178.5	30.8	50.9	12	Al Kaline	187.6	143.2	32.3	48.9
13	Jim Bunning	163.7	143.1	30.1	48.9	13	Brooks Robinson	209.4	175.0	28.2	47.4
14	Eddie Mathews	152.8	118.7	29.3	42.9	14	Roger Maris	146.1	104.7	32.4	45.0
15	Brooks Robinson	209.4	175.0	28.2	47.4	15	Eddie Mathews	152.8	118.7	29.3	42.9
16	Dick Allen	129.4	96.8	27.3	38.5	16	Carl Yastrzemski	201.8	166.6	22.2	40.5
17	Whitey Ford	103.7	82.7	26.6	38.1	17	Don Drysdale	164.7	154.4	20.8	39.9
18	Jim Maloney	124.5	107.8	23.9	38.1	18	Ron Santo	206.2	180.9	19.4	38.7
19	Norm Cash	162.3	125.1	23.0	37.5	19	Dick Allen	129.4	96.8	27.3	38.5
20	Denny McLain	101.2	84.6	22.3	33.5	20	Maury Wills	203.3	189.5	18.6	38.2
21	Carl Yastrzemski	201.8	166.6	22.2	40.5	21	Whitey Ford	103.7	82.7	26.6	38.1
22	Orlando Cepeda	172.8	136.5	21.3	36.8	22	Jim Maloney	124.5	107.8	23.9	38.1
23	Don Drysdale	164.7	154.4	20.8	39.9	23	Norm Cash	162.3	125.1	23.0	37.5
24	Dick McAuliffe	146.3	129.5	20.7	34.5	24	Larry Jackson	148.3	137.3	19.8	37.2
25	Tony Oliva	130.3	101.4	19.8	31.3	25	Orlando Cepeda	172.8	136.5	21.3	36.8

Ron Santo still shows up in the above table, but he's no longer a top-10 player; now, he's a top-25 player. To be clear, being one of the top 25 players in major-league baseball over a 10-year period is generally still good enough to get you into the Hall of Fame - there are only four players in the top 25 in both pWOPA and pWORL for the 1960s who are not in the Hall of Fame. But Santo does look somewhat less impressive.

This is similar to an anti-Santo argument that I heard on occasion. The Chicago Cubs of the 1960's had four Hall-of-Famers, including Santo, and never won anything. Put that way, this argument falls apart at both ends. Ernie Banks's Hall-of-Fame peak was ending in 1960 and 1961, just about the time that Ron Santo's Hall-of-Fame prime was beginning, and Fergie Jenkins didn't join the Cubs until the middle of the 1966 season. And once Jenkins joined Banks (who was 36 years old by then), Santo, and Billy Williams, the Cubs had winning records every season that all four of them were in Chicago, from 1967 through 1971. They just could never quite win it all.

But the fact remains that Ron Santo spent a few years of his prime as the best player on 90- and 100-loss teams. It was certainly not Ron Santo's fault that the 1966 Cubs went 59-103, but, one could argue, how valuable can any player be if he's playing for a 59-103 team?

Article last updated: November 12, 2019

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

Home List of Articles