Tom Glavine

Baseball Player Won-Loss Records
Home List of Articles

Tom Glavine

Hall-of-Famers as Seen Through Player Won-Lost Records: Tom Glavine

Tom Glavine was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility, 2014, with 91.9% of the vote.

Five highlights of Tom Glavine's career:

Tom Glavine was drafted in the second round of the 1984 MLB draft by the Atlanta Braves. That same year, he was drafted in the fourth round of the NHL draft by the Los Angeles Kings.

Glavine had 20 or more traditional pitcher wins five times in his career. He led the National League in victories in each of those seasons.

Glavine was named to ten All-Star teams. He was the starting pitcher for the National League in back-to-back All-Star games in 1991 and 1992. Glavine won two Cy Young Awards (1991, 1998), finished second in Cy Young voting twice, and finished third in Cy Young voting twice. He also won four Silver Sluggers as the best-hitting pitcher in the National League.

Tom Glavine holds the major-league career record for most successful sacrifice bunts by a pitcher with 216.

Tom Glavine's brother Mike played in 6 major-league games in 2003. Mike Glavine’s major-league debut came when he pinch hit for his brother Tom in the sixth inning of a 7-3 Mets loss to the Montreal Expos. Mike Glavine ended his career with a lower batting average (.143, he went 1-for-7 in his career, a single) than Tom Glavine, who had a career batting line of .186/.244/.210.

The first two tables below present Tom Glavine's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1987	ATL	21	9	3.3	3.7	0.2	-0.2
1988	ATL	22	42	11.3	15.0	-1.3	-2.8
1989	ATL	23	30	11.7	11.2	2.6	1.2
1990	ATL	24	34	11.8	13.3	1.0	-0.6
1991	ATL	25	36	16.8	12.0	7.5	5.8
1992	ATL	26	35	15.4	11.7	6.2	4.6
1993	ATL	27	36	16.5	12.5	6.7	4.9
1994	ATL	28	26	10.8	9.9	2.9	1.7
1995	ATL	29	29	13.9	9.5	6.6	5.1
1996	ATL	30	39	16.0	12.0	6.7	4.9
1997	ATL	31	33	14.3	12.5	4.3	2.6
1998	ATL	32	33	15.1	10.7	6.9	5.3
1999	ATL	33	36	14.2	13.6	3.3	1.5
2000	ATL	34	37	14.7	11.6	5.8	4.2
2001	ATL	35	35	13.2	12.0	3.6	2.0
2002	ATL	36	37	15.4	12.9	5.4	3.6
2003	NYN	37	33	11.2	12.7	0.9	-0.6
2004	NYN	38	35	12.4	11.9	2.9	1.4
2005	NYN	39	33	13.0	13.0	2.4	0.8
2006	NYN	40	32	12.4	10.9	3.7	2.2
2007	NYN	41	35	11.3	11.9	1.7	0.2
2008	ATL	42	14	3.1	5.2	-1.3	-1.9
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			709	277.8	249.8	78.6	45.8
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			36	14.4	14.8	2.3	0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			745	292.1	264.6	80.9	46.3

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1987	ATL	21	9	3.1	3.8	-0.0	-0.5
1988	ATL	22	42	12.7	13.6	1.6	0.0
1989	ATL	23	30	11.2	11.6	1.7	0.3
1990	ATL	24	34	12.1	13.0	1.7	0.2
1991	ATL	25	36	16.2	12.6	6.2	4.6
1992	ATL	26	35	14.6	12.6	4.8	3.1
1993	ATL	27	36	14.4	14.5	3.0	1.2
1994	ATL	28	26	10.2	10.4	2.0	0.7
1995	ATL	29	29	13.1	10.2	5.2	3.8
1996	ATL	30	39	15.7	12.3	6.2	4.4
1997	ATL	31	33	14.5	12.3	4.9	3.3
1998	ATL	32	33	14.4	11.4	5.7	4.1
1999	ATL	33	36	14.5	13.3	4.0	2.3
2000	ATL	34	37	14.0	12.3	4.4	2.7
2001	ATL	35	35	12.6	12.6	2.6	1.0
2002	ATL	36	37	14.3	14.0	3.5	1.7
2003	NYN	37	33	11.9	12.0	2.3	0.8
2004	NYN	38	35	12.7	11.6	3.6	2.1
2005	NYN	39	33	13.7	12.3	4.0	2.3
2006	NYN	40	32	11.5	11.9	1.8	0.3
2007	NYN	41	35	11.4	11.9	1.8	0.3
2008	ATL	42	14	3.6	4.7	-0.3	-0.8
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			709	272.6	254.9	70.6	37.8
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			36	14.8	14.3	3.3	1.4
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			745	287.5	269.3	73.8	39.2

The Sabermetric View of Tom Glavine

There is some controversy within the sabermetric community over how good a pitcher Tom Glavine really was. For strong adherents of DIPS Theory (which propounds that pitchers have no control over balls in play), Tom Glavine is something of an anomaly, and/or the luckiest pitcher in major-league history. For his career, Tom Glavine posted an ERA of 3.54, but a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which measures what his ERA "should" have been based entirely on how many strikeouts, walks, and home runs Glavine allowed) of 3.95.

Baseball-Reference calculates its version of WAR based on actual runs allowed. Based on his excellent career ERA, Baseball-Reference shows Glavine having earned 80.7 career WAR (73.9 from pitching; 6.8 of that from his hitting, which was quite good for a pitcher).

Fangraphs calculates its version of WAR based on FIP - i.e., expected runs allowed given a pitcher's peripheral statistics. Because Glavine's FIP was considerably higher than his ERA over his career, Fangraphs shows Glavine as only having amassed 73.0 WAR in his career (66.7 pitching, 6.3 batting).

In fact, for more recent seasons (since 2002), Fangraphs goes a step farther and calculates an expected value of FIP, xFIP, that replaces actual home runs allowed with an expected number of home runs, based on the number of fly balls allowed. These data are only available for the last seven seasons of Glavine's career, but over that time period, Fangraphs calculates Tom Glavine as having an xFIP of 4.59 versus a FIP of 4.40 versus an ERA of 3.87.

The WORL numbers in the two previous tables are on the same basic scale as WAR although with a slightly higher replacement level. Adjusting Glavine's eWORL to tie to the replacement level used by Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs would produce an "eWAR" value of 76.0, which basically splits the difference between Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs.

Tom Glavine: Above-Average at Everything

Pitching Player won-lost records are calculated across seven different components. The next table defines these components and presents Tom Glavine's (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) career record by component.

Component	eWins	eLosses	eWin Pct.
Component 1: Basestealing	4.6	2.8	0.616
Component 2: Wild Pitches and Passed Balls	3.3	1.8	0.652
Component 3: Balls not in Play	55.2	43.3	0.561
Component 4: Balls in Play	127.6	126.8	0.502
Component 5: Hits vs. Outs on Balls in Play	35.8	33.6	0.516
Component 6: Singles vs. Doubles vs. Triples	3.7	2.9	0.559
Component 7: Double Plays	1.3	1.4	0.471

Tom Glavine was above average at every component of pitching except for Component 7 (getting double plays on ground outs in DP situations).

How unusual is that? The next table lists every player with at least 5 pitching wins and a career Player winning percentage over 0.500 at pitching for each of components 1 through 6 for whom I have calculated Player won-lost records (mostly since 1916). Pitchers are sorted by pWins over replacement level.

	Pitchers Above Average at (Virtually) Everything
Player	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
Roger Clemens	316.9	228.6	94.6	131.3
Warren Spahn	351.1	294.8	74.3	113.8
Pedro J. Martinez	192.4	137.8	62.6	84.7
Tom Glavine	277.8	249.8	45.8	78.6
Carl Hubbell	221.2	185.3	46.2	71.2
Pete Alexander	179.9	141.2	46.3	66.3
Tim Hudson	197.8	167.5	40.8	64.5
Rick Reuschel	218.2	206.7	25.3	50.4
Larry Jackson	204.2	191.5	24.1	48.6
Rich Gossage	130.4	102.2	25.5	45.3
Tiny Bonham	93.0	84.7	13.2	24.3
Ken Forsch	116.4	112.7	7.9	23.1
Jack S. Sanford	126.5	126.6	7.0	22.8
Rudy May	154.4	157.5	1.0	21.4
Jim Barr	110.4	109.1	6.5	20.3
Eddie Cicotte	53.5	43.3	12.5	19.0
Art Fowler	57.9	54.9	4.9	13.0
Jim Brosnan	46.7	43.7	3.8	11.0
Connie Johnson	44.6	43.0	4.3	9.6
Terry Fox	24.2	19.6	4.5	8.4
Mark Fidrych	25.3	20.5	5.0	8.0
Chuck Taylor	27.6	24.7	3.3	7.4
Manny Sarmiento	22.3	20.2	2.5	5.7
Jim Corsi	21.0	19.9	0.6	4.4

It's an interesting list. As expected, it's relatively short, only 24 names, but there's actually quite a range of players, from the great to the good to the anonymous.

Tom Glavine: Historically Great at the Little Things

So, Tom Glavine out-performed his peripherals in large part by being good at everything. But Tom Glavine wasn't merely "good" at everything. He was actually great at several things.

The first component of Player won-lost records, Component 1, measures the running game (stolen bases, caught stealing, pickoffs). For his career, Glavine allowed only 226 stolen bases in 6,649 stolen base opportunities with a stolen-base success rate well below breakeven (57%). That works out to one stolen base for every 29.4 opportunties. To put that in some context, for the major leagues as a whole in 1998 (Glavine's second Cy Young season), players stole a base for every 21.4 stolen base opportunities.

The next table shows the top 10 pitchers in net career Component 1 wins. The data in this table control for the ability of the pitcher's catchers within this component.

	Top 10 Pitchers: Net Component 1 Wins
Player	Wins	Losses	Win Pct	Net Wins
Steve Carlton	8.1	6.0	0.575	2.1
Gaylord Perry	5.9	3.8	0.607	2.1
Kenny Rogers	3.4	1.5	0.693	1.9
Dolf Luque	5.0	3.3	0.606	1.8
Frank Viola	3.9	2.1	0.645	1.7
Tom Glavine	4.6	2.8	0.616	1.7
Mark Buehrle	2.8	1.1	0.709	1.6
Bobo Newsom	5.0	3.4	0.593	1.6
Jim Perry	3.3	1.7	0.657	1.6
Andy Pettitte	3.5	2.0	0.639	1.5

The second component of Player won-lost records, Component 2, measures wild pitches and passed balls. For his career, Glavine threw only 65 wild pitches while his catchers committed only 15 passed balls, in 4,413.1 innings pitched. That works out to a wild pitch or passed ball once every 55 innings. To put that in some context, for the major leagues as a whole in 1998, there was a wild pitch or passed ball once every 21.8 innings.

The next table shows the top 10 pitchers in net career Component 2 wins. As with the Component 1 table, the data here control for the ability of the pitcher's catchers within this component.

	Top 10 Pitchers: Net Component 2 Wins
Player	Wins	Losses	Win Pct	Net Wins
Luis Tiant Jr.	2.7	0.8	0.778	1.9
Greg Maddux	3.6	1.8	0.668	1.8
Bob Friend	2.7	1.1	0.709	1.6
Livan Hernandez	2.5	1.0	0.726	1.6
Bartolo Colon	2.6	1.0	0.716	1.6
Tom Glavine	3.3	1.8	0.652	1.5
Dennis Eckersley	2.3	0.8	0.749	1.5
Jamie Moyer	2.7	1.2	0.695	1.5
Mark Buehrle	2.2	0.7	0.757	1.5
Lew Burdette	2.1	0.7	0.747	1.4

Finally, Component 6 of Player won-lost records evaluates the ability to get/limit extra bases on hits-in-play - i.e., it evaluates a player based on doubles and triples allowed (or made) vis-a-vis singles. For his career, Tom Glavine allowed 3,942 hits in play (i.e., excluding home runs). Within this total, Glavine allowed 786 doubles and 76 triples, meaning that 21.9% of the hits-in-play allowed by Glavine went for extra bases. To put that in some context, for the major leagues as a whole in 1998, 24.5% of hits-in-play went for extra bases.

The next table shows the top 10 pitchers in net career Component 6 wins. As with the Component 1 and 2 tables, the data here control for the ability of the pitcher's teammates (mostly, outfielders in this case) within this component.

	Top 10 Pitchers: Net Component 6 Wins
Player	Wins	Losses	Win Pct	Net Wins
Jerry Reuss	3.6	2.7	0.568	0.8
Juan Marichal	2.9	2.1	0.581	0.8
Tom Glavine	3.7	2.9	0.559	0.8
Ted Lyons	3.4	2.7	0.553	0.7
J. Kevin Brown	2.7	2.0	0.569	0.6
Red Faber	2.4	1.7	0.578	0.6
E. Mike Garcia	1.8	1.2	0.605	0.6
Don Drysdale	2.7	2.1	0.562	0.6
Claude Osteen	3.1	2.5	0.553	0.6
Mel Harder	2.9	2.4	0.553	0.6

So there you have it: good at everything, great at several things, equals easy Hall of Famer.

Article last updated: October 30, 2019

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

Home List of Articles