Tommy John

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Tommy John

2020 Modern Era Hall of Fame Ballot: Tommy John

The Baseball Hall of Fame recently announced their 2020 Modern Era ballot. One player on the ballot is long-time major-league pitcher, Tommy John.

Five highlights of Tommy John's career:

Tommy John made his major-league debut on September 6, 1963, and played in his final major-league game on May 25, 1989, almost 26 years later.

John is one of eight pitchers in major-league history to have started 700 games.

John had 20 traditional pitcher wins in a season three times in his career, all within a four year stretch from 1977 – 1980, during which John had a traditional record of 80-35, 3.12 ERA. These were the only four seasons in which John received any Cy Young votes – he finished second in 1977 and 1979 – and John made three of his four career All-Star appearances during this stretch.

Tommy John was hurt in a game on July 17, 1974 which led to him becoming the first pitcher to receive what has come to be called “Tommy John surgery” on September 25, 1974. Tommy John’s first major-league appearance following surgery was April 16, 1976.

John appeared in three World Series, all of which pitted the Los Angeles Dodgers against the New York Yankees. John pitched in 6 games, starting 5 of them, across these three World Series, over which he amassed a traditional record of 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA. The Yankees won two of the three Series, but John ended up on the losing side all three times, pitching twice for losing Dodgers teams (in 1977 and 1978) before switching sides of the rivalry in time for the Dodgers to finally beat the Yankees in the 1981 World Series.

The first two tables below present Tommy John's career as measured by Player won-lost records, in and out of context.

Season	Team	Age	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWORL	pWOPA

Basic Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1963	CLE	20	6	1.0	1.2	-0.0	-0.2
1964	CLE	21	25	5.2	7.7	-1.4	-2.2
1965	CHA	22	39	12.7	10.1	4.6	3.2
1966	CHA	23	34	14.9	12.3	4.9	3.2
1967	CHA	24	31	11.4	11.8	1.8	0.4
1968	CHA	25	25	10.1	8.1	3.5	2.5
1969	CHA	26	33	13.0	13.1	2.3	0.7
1970	CHA	27	38	16.4	15.9	3.4	1.5
1971	CHA	28	38	13.1	15.3	0.4	-1.3
1972	LAN	29	29	10.6	9.3	3.1	1.9
1973	LAN	30	36	12.9	10.1	4.8	3.5
1974	LAN	31	22	9.5	6.4	4.6	3.6
1975	-	32	-	-	-	-	-
1976	LAN	33	31	10.9	11.0	1.9	0.6
1977	LAN	34	31	16.2	11.2	7.4	5.8
1978	LAN	35	33	12.3	11.1	3.3	1.9
1979	NYA	36	37	15.7	10.7	6.9	5.2
1980	NYA	37	36	16.1	11.1	6.9	5.2
1981	NYA	38	20	7.9	7.1	2.0	1.0
+– 1982		39	37	11.7	10.5	2.9	1.4
	CAL		7	2.0	1.9	0.4	0.1
	NYA		30	9.7	8.6	2.5	1.3
1983	CAL	40	34	11.8	12.9	0.7	-0.9
1984	CAL	41	32	9.3	10.7	0.1	-1.2
+– 1985		42	23	5.0	6.6	-0.8	-1.6
	CAL		12	1.9	2.4	-0.1	-0.4
	OAK		11	3.1	4.3	-0.6	-1.1
1986	NYA	43	13	4.3	3.3	1.6	1.1
1987	NYA	44	33	11.3	8.6	4.2	2.9
1988	NYA	45	35	9.4	8.2	2.4	1.3
1989	NYA	46	10	3.2	4.3	-0.6	-1.1
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			761	276.0	248.5	70.9	38.3
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			14	5.1	4.8	1.1	0.4
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			775	281.0	253.3	71.9	38.8

Season	Team	Age	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWORL	eWOPA

Expected Player Won-Lost Records
						Value Decomposition
1963	CLE	20	6	1.0	1.2	0.1	-0.0
1964	CLE	21	25	6.1	6.7	0.6	-0.3
1965	CHA	22	39	12.0	10.9	3.2	1.8
1966	CHA	23	34	14.1	13.1	3.5	1.8
1967	CHA	24	31	11.8	11.4	2.5	1.1
1968	CHA	25	25	9.9	8.2	3.4	2.4
1969	CHA	26	33	13.1	13.0	2.7	1.1
1970	CHA	27	38	16.8	15.5	4.5	2.6
1971	CHA	28	38	13.6	14.8	1.5	-0.2
1972	LAN	29	29	9.9	10.1	1.8	0.6
1973	LAN	30	36	12.4	10.6	4.0	2.6
1974	LAN	31	22	8.2	7.7	2.2	1.2
1975	-	32	-	-	-	-	-
1976	LAN	33	31	10.9	11.0	2.2	0.9
1977	LAN	34	31	14.5	12.9	4.4	2.7
1978	LAN	35	33	11.5	11.9	2.0	0.6
1979	NYA	36	37	15.3	11.1	6.1	4.4
1980	NYA	37	36	15.2	11.9	5.2	3.5
1981	NYA	38	20	7.9	7.1	2.0	1.0
+– 1982		39	37	12.0	10.2	3.4	2.0
	CAL		7	1.8	2.1	-0.1	-0.3
	NYA		30	10.2	8.1	3.5	2.3
1983	CAL	40	34	12.2	12.5	1.5	-0.1
1984	CAL	41	32	9.5	10.5	0.4	-0.9
+– 1985		42	23	5.3	6.4	-0.3	-1.1
	CAL		12	2.0	2.3	0.1	-0.2
	OAK		11	3.3	4.1	-0.4	-0.8
1986	NYA	43	13	4.0	3.6	1.0	0.5
1987	NYA	44	33	11.0	9.0	3.4	2.1
1988	NYA	45	35	8.7	8.9	1.1	-0.1
1989	NYA	46	10	3.5	4.0	-0.0	-0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
CAREER (reg. season)			761	270.3	254.2	62.3	29.7
			------	------	------	------	------
PostSeason (career)			14	5.1	4.8	1.1	0.5
			------	------	------	------	------
COMBINED			775	275.4	259.0	63.4	30.2

Tommy John made the Modern Era ballot the last time this committee voted, in 2018. The remainder of this article is drawn largely from the article which I wrote about Tommy John at that time.

Tommy John is probably best known for the elbow surgery which bears his name. Personally, I think this is a minor argument in favor of Tommy John's Hall-of-Fame candidacy. But I also think he doesn't necessarily need the help. The fact is that Tommy John was an outstanding starting pitcher for a long time.

In this article, I am going to compare Tommy John to Hall-of-Famer (and sabermetric darling) Bert Blyleven. Bert Blyleven pitched 4,970 innings in his long and storied career with a career earned run average of 3.31 (ERA+ of 118 according to Baseball-Reference), and a traditional won-lost record of 287-250.

Tommy John pitched nearly as many innings in his career, 4,710.1, at a similar rate to Blyleven (ERA of 3.34, ERA+ of 111). Blyleven struck out quite a few more batters than John (3,701 to 2,245), but John was better at the other two "true outcomes", issuing only 1,259 career walks (to 1,322 by Blyleven) and allowing only 302 home runs (vs. 430 home runs allowed by Blyleven).

The next table compares Tommy John and Bert Blyleven in (context-neutral, teammate-adjusted) eWins over their careers.

Season	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL	Games	eWins	eLosses	eWOPA	eWORL
	Tommy John					Bert Blyleven
1963	6	1.0	1.2	-0.0	0.1
1964	25	6.1	6.7	-0.3	0.6
1965	39	12.0	10.9	1.8	3.2
1966	34	14.1	13.1	1.8	3.5
1967	31	11.8	11.4	1.1	2.5
1968	25	9.9	8.2	2.4	3.4
1969	33	13.1	13.0	1.1	2.7
1970	38	16.8	15.5	2.6	4.5	27	10.6	10.1	1.2	2.5
1971	38	13.6	14.8	-0.2	1.5	38	17.9	15.6	3.6	5.6
1972	29	9.9	10.1	0.6	1.8	39	17.9	17.1	2.0	4.1
1973	36	12.4	10.6	2.6	4.0	40	19.4	13.0	6.5	8.6
1974	22	8.2	7.7	1.2	2.2	37	16.3	12.3	4.1	6.0
1975						35	14.9	12.0	3.0	4.8
1976	31	10.9	11.0	0.9	2.2	36	17.7	14.2	3.6	5.6
1977	31	14.5	12.9	2.7	4.4	30	13.9	10.2	3.8	5.4
1978	33	11.5	11.9	0.6	2.0	37	15.5	13.3	3.4	5.0
1979	37	15.3	11.1	4.4	6.1	38	11.8	13.4	-0.6	0.9
1980	36	15.2	11.9	3.5	5.2	37	11.7	12.6	-0.1	1.3
1981	20	7.9	7.1	1.0	2.0	20	8.2	6.6	1.6	2.6
1982	37	12.0	10.2	2.0	3.4	4	1.5	1.4	0.1	0.2
1983	34	12.2	12.5	-0.1	1.5	24	9.4	8.0	1.5	2.6
1984	32	9.5	10.5	-0.9	0.4	33	13.8	9.7	4.3	5.8
1985	23	5.3	6.4	-1.1	-0.3	37	18.5	14.1	4.6	6.8
1986	13	4.0	3.6	0.5	1.0	36	17.4	17.0	0.7	2.9
1987	33	11.0	9.0	2.1	3.4	37	15.3	17.3	-1.7	0.4
1988	35	8.7	8.9	-0.1	1.1	33	12.5	13.7	-1.1	0.7
1989	10	3.5	4.0	-0.5	-0.0	33	12.7	10.4	2.5	4.0
1990						23	7.3	7.8	-0.4	0.6
1991
1992						25	7.7	9.1	-1.3	-0.2
------	------	------	------	------		------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	761	270.3	254.2	29.7	62.3	699	291.8	258.9	41.3	76.3

Blyleven leads in quantity (eWins, but also eLosses) - which is consistent with his modest lead in innings pitched - and Blyleven also leads in quality (which is consistent with Blyleven's lead in ERA/ERA+).

Tommy John does lead Bert Blyleven in one traditional pitching category: won-lost record. John earned one more traditional pitching win than Blyleven over their careers (288 to 287) and 19 fewer pitching losses (231 to 250). Much of this difference is because of the quality of the teams for which they pitched: John pitched for five playoff teams, Blyleven pitched for three (although Blyleven pitched for more World Series winners than John).

But Blyleven's performance over his career also translated into (slightly) fewer team wins than would have been expected, while John's performance over his career translated into (slightly) more team wins than expected. For example, for his career Blyleven allowed an OPS of .687 in high-leverage situations vs. .649 in low-leverage situations. John, on the other hand, did slightly better than Blyleven in high-leverage situations for his career (OPS allowed of .682) but worse in low-leverage situations (OPS allowed of .689). The next table puts their performances in context, tying player wins to team wins. This is how the two of them compare in pWins.

Season	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL	Games	pWins	pLosses	pWOPA	pWORL
	Tommy John					Bert Blyleven
1963	6	1.0	1.2	-0.2	-0.0
1964	25	5.2	7.7	-2.2	-1.4
1965	39	12.7	10.1	3.2	4.6
1966	34	14.9	12.3	3.2	4.9
1967	31	11.4	11.8	0.4	1.8
1968	25	10.1	8.1	2.5	3.5
1969	33	13.0	13.1	0.7	2.3
1970	38	16.4	15.9	1.5	3.4	27	10.5	10.3	0.7	2.0
1971	38	13.1	15.3	-1.3	0.4	38	18.0	15.5	3.6	5.6
1972	29	10.6	9.3	1.9	3.1	39	17.9	17.1	1.8	3.9
1973	36	12.9	10.1	3.5	4.8	40	18.7	13.6	5.2	7.3
1974	22	9.5	6.4	3.6	4.6	37	15.8	12.8	3.2	5.0
1975						35	15.0	11.9	3.2	5.0
1976	31	10.9	11.0	0.6	1.9	36	17.5	14.5	3.2	5.2
1977	31	16.2	11.2	5.8	7.4	30	13.3	10.8	2.7	4.3
1978	33	12.3	11.1	1.9	3.3	37	15.3	13.5	2.7	4.4
1979	37	15.7	10.7	5.2	6.9	38	12.7	12.5	1.1	2.6
1980	36	16.1	11.1	5.2	6.9	37	11.4	12.9	-0.7	0.8
1981	20	7.9	7.1	1.0	2.0	20	8.0	6.8	1.3	2.3
1982	37	11.7	10.5	1.4	2.9	4	1.3	1.6	-0.2	-0.0
1983	34	11.8	12.9	-0.9	0.7	24	8.9	8.5	0.5	1.6
1984	32	9.3	10.7	-1.2	0.1	33	14.1	9.3	5.0	6.6
1985	23	5.0	6.6	-1.6	-0.8	37	17.5	15.2	2.5	4.7
1986	13	4.3	3.3	1.1	1.6	36	17.5	16.9	0.8	3.0
1987	33	11.3	8.6	2.9	4.2	37	16.7	15.9	1.0	3.2
1988	35	9.4	8.2	1.3	2.4	33	11.7	14.5	-2.6	-0.9
1989	10	3.2	4.3	-1.1	-0.6	33	13.7	9.4	4.5	6.1
1990						23	6.7	8.4	-1.5	-0.5
1991
1992						25	7.1	9.7	-2.5	-1.4
------	------	------	------	------		------	------	------	------
CAREER RECORDS	761	276.0	248.5	38.3	70.9	699	289.2	261.4	35.6	70.6

In context, Tommy John stacks up quite well to Bert Blyleven. In fact, John beats Blyleven in career pWins over positional average (pWOPA) and the two are essentially even in pWins over replacement level (pWORL).

To be clear: This is not an argument that Bert Blyleven does not belong in the Hall of Fame. No, this is an argument that Tommy John belongs there as well.

2020 Modern Era Hall of Fame Ballot

Article last updated: November 7, 2019

All articles are written so that they pull data directly from the most recent version of the Player won-lost database. Hence, any numbers cited within these articles should automatically incorporate the most recent update to Player won-lost records. In some cases, however, the accompanying text may have been written based on previous versions of Player won-lost records. I apologize if this results in non-sensical text in any cases.

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