Component 5: Hits vs. Outs on Balls in Play
In the fifth step of calculating Player Wins and Losses, batters, pitchers, and fielders are given credit and blame for balls in play becoming hits or outs.1. Calculation of Component 5 Player Game PointsCredits/debits for whether balls in play become hits or outs are assigned in Component 5. The average value of the ball in play, based on the location and hit type of the ball, was assigned to batters and pitchers in Component 4. Component 5 player wins and losses are calculated based on an average result of the play, given that it is either a hit or an out. For hits, debits and credits based on the type of hit – single, double, or triple – are assigned in Component 6. Credits for double plays, and baserunner outs and advancements are assigned in Components 7, 8, and 9, respectively. For fielders, Component 5 Player Game Points are the portion of Player won-lost records that are most comparable to other play-by-play measures of fielding, such as UZR, PMR, +/-, and TotalZone.
2. Division of Component 5 Game Points Between Pitchers and FieldersComponent 5 Player Games are shared between pitchers and fielders based on the extent to which player winning percentages persist across different sample periods. The mathematics underlying this division is described elsewhere.
(Component 5 Win Pct)Even = b•(Component 5 Win Pct)Odd + (1-b)•(WinPct)Baseline
where (WinPct)Baseline represents a baseline winning percentage toward which Component 5 winning percentages regress over time.Persistence of Component 5 Winning Percentage: Catcher
Pitchers: n = 39,633, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (2.74%)*WinPctOdd + (97.26%)*0.5000 (5.584)
Catchers: n = 8,475, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (10.39%)*WinPctOdd + (89.61%)*0.5000 (9.511)
Persistence of Component 5 Winning Percentage: First Baseman
Pitchers: n = 40,398, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (13.41%)*WinPctOdd + (86.59%)*0.5000 (26.91)
First Basemen: n = 10,611, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (28.14%)*WinPctOdd + (71.86%)*0.5000 (28.22)
Persistence of Component 5 Winning Percentage: Second Baseman
Pitchers: n = 40,586, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (13.95%)*WinPctOdd + (86.05%)*0.5000 (27.98)
Second Basemen: n = 10,035, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (33.82%)*WinPctOdd + (66.18%)*0.5000 (35.19)
Persistence of Component 5 Winning Percentage: Third Baseman
Pitchers: n = 40,521, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (12.58%)*WinPctOdd + (87.42%)*0.5000 (25.79)
Third Basemen: n = 11,012, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (36.54%)*WinPctOdd + (63.46%)*0.5000 (40.92)
Persistence of Component 5 Winning Percentage: Shortstop
Pitchers: n = 40,617, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (11.38%)*WinPctOdd + (88.62%)*0.5000 (23.29)
Shortstop: n = 8,830, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (36.49%)*WinPctOdd + (63.51%)*0.5000 (34.98)
Persistence of Component 5 Winning Percentage: Left Fielder
Pitchers: n = 40,438, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (21.96%)*WinPctOdd + (78.04%)*0.5000 (45.25)
Left Fielders: n = 15,176, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (39.33%)*WinPctOdd + (60.67%)*0.5000 (52.31)
Persistence of Component 5 Winning Percentage: Center Fielder
Pitchers: n = 40,529, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (18.07%)*WinPctOdd + (81.93%)*0.5000 (36.30)
Center Fielders: n = 10,597, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (39.51%)*WinPctOdd + (60.49%)*0.5000 (46.79)
Persistence of Component 5 Winning Percentage: Right Fielder
Pitchers: n = 40,401, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (22.21%)*WinPctOdd + (77.79%)*0.5000 (45.55)
Right Fielders: n = 13,816, R2 = 0.0000
WinPctEven = (42.88%)*WinPctOdd + (57.12%)*0.5000 (52.78)
3. Component 5 Player Decisions by Fielding PositionThe breakdown of Component 5 Player decisions by fielding position is as follows:
Position | 1916 - 2019 | Since 2000 |
---|---|---|
Pitcher | 5.7% | 4.8% |
Catcher | 1.1% | 0.8% |
First Base | 7.2% | 7.6% |
Second Base | 15.5% | 15.6% |
Third Base | 15.5% | 15.3% |
Shortstop | 18.2% | 17.0% |
Left Field | 12.4% | 12.7% |
Center Field | 12.2% | 12.9% |
Right Field | 12.3% | 13.3% |
Position | 1916 - 2019 | Since 2000 |
---|---|---|
First Base | 7.7% | 8.0% |
Second Base | 16.6% | 16.5% |
Third Base | 16.6% | 16.3% |
Shortstop | 19.5% | 18.0% |
Left Field | 13.3% | 13.4% |
Center Field | 13.0% | 13.7% |
Right Field | 13.2% | 14.1% |